call or pass?

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raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

call or pass?

Unread post by raydog » Sat Apr 08, 2023 1:53 pm

You are dealer, holding QS + A-Q-9H + 10D, with the 9S turned. Everyone else passes; do you call or pass?



irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Apr 08, 2023 10:07 pm

LOL,

Did not say what the score was? Be that as it may, I usually pick it up (80%, all depends). I expect to be euchred a lot. But you have to! :lol:

IRISH

coolguy69
Posts: 8
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2023 2:36 am

Unread post by coolguy69 » Sun Apr 09, 2023 2:39 pm

For this one, instead of a sim I like to use my religious object of choice. In this case my pet rock Hector but you can also use a Bible or Quran or Euchre Beads. Give it 5 seconds when it's your turn, say a Euchre prayer, and pass. That's my strategy.

raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Sun Apr 09, 2023 5:08 pm

I did have 2 scores in mind, but forgot to include them. Tied 3-3 or losing 9-6.

raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Mon Apr 10, 2023 5:31 pm

This is one of those hands where you do poorly when you call, but you do even more poorly when you pass. So you just have to accept the lesser of two evils.

Call: (1,124 / 30,718 / 30,640 ) [sweep / 1 pt / euchred] EV = =0.45
Pass: S1 (4,876 / 11,336 / 1,510 // 5,328 / 18,593 / 5,779)
S2 (409 / 1,997 / 351 // 472 / 6,037 / 3,147)
S3 (120 / 267 / 5 // 319 / 1,428 / 256 )
S4 (0 / 0 / 0 // 2 / 143 / 107)
net EV = -0.71
[in the data for "pass", the first 3 numbers are the results of lone calls, the second 3 numbers are the results of bidding with partner]

Call it a donate.

When you are losing 9-6, calling gives you a 8.8% chance of winning the game, while passing gives you a 6.4% chance. I tested for a score of 3-3 as well, but didn't write down the results. But I do recall have a 3-4% better chance of winning the game if you call.

irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:34 pm

Good stuff Ray, and no surprise to me. But more interesting to me is R2 calls.
I like it that you posted the complete profile on R2 by each seat. Some really good stuff if you dig deep into those details.

I wonder what rock head Hector thought?

IRISH

irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Apr 10, 2023 10:07 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:34 pm
Good stuff Ray, and no surprise to me. But more interesting to me is R2 calls.
I like it that you posted the complete profile on R2 by each seat. Some really good stuff if you dig deep into those details.

Only thing missing on R2 is breakdown on what Suit was called.

I wonder what rock head Hector thought?

IRISH

raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:34 am

The report I generate doesn't break down the calls by suit, but I can assure you that S1 and S3 tend toward next calls (their threshold for making those calls is lower) and S2 and S4 tend toward making green suit calls, for the same reason. It's programmed that way because success rate has dictated it be so, for reasons we all understand.

irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Apr 11, 2023 1:53 pm

Of course, S1 leans to Next and S2 crossing suit to Green. Not only that, Pone at S3 can call any suit if it gets to him R2. And look at the Euchre rates on R2!

I am always looking to confirmation. But there more here to see. The Dealer has 3 hearts so it reduces the chance of a heart call. But with 5 unknown Diamonds Eldest just might cross suit 30 to 40% of the time instead of calling Next or Passing. I know I do to keep opponents off my back. Just all depends and that was the type of information I was looking for. It helps to further 'refining strategy'.
raydog wrote:
Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:34 am
The report I generate doesn't break down the calls by suit, but I can assure you that S1 and S3 tend toward next calls (their threshold for making those calls is lower) and S2 and S4 tend toward making green suit calls, for the same reason. It's programmed that way because success rate has dictated it be so, for reasons we all understand.
Still really good stuff looking at the details. It's all good!

IRISH

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