What are the odds of a loner

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sdu754
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Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:15 am

What are the odds of a loner

Unread post by sdu754 » Tue Jan 10, 2023 2:03 pm

What are the odds that the dealer deals himself a loner that takes all five tricks in the turned up suit?



raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:00 pm

Having analyzed 10,000,000 random hands with my simulator, I found:

S4 calls alone in the 1st round 17.4% of the time.
Success rate is 5.8% (of total hands, which equals about 1/3 of lone calls).

Lots of variables to consider, but this should be very close to in the ballpark.

sdu754
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Unread post by sdu754 » Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:11 pm

Thanks for the answer. I was thinking it would be less than 105 of the time, but I wasn't sure on an average number.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:36 pm

What does "105 of the time" mean? Typo?

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:53 pm

Do know the ratio of Next to Crossing Suit, going alone?

S4 calls alone in the 1st round 17.4% of the time.
Success rate is 5.8% (of total hands, which equals about 1/3 of lone calls). I would guess 33 to 40% crossing suit. And that would depend on Opponents trying to bag.

IRISH

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Tue Jan 10, 2023 10:48 pm

Question was for dealer, 1st round.

You seem to be talking about S1 calling alone, R2. A valid question, but a completely different topic.

Happy to provide the stats I have, but please confirm that I am interpreting this correctly.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Jan 10, 2023 11:37 pm

Yes I skipped to R2, all passing R1 Loners attempts and success from S1 R2. Next and Crossing suit if you know it?

"You seem to be talking about S1 calling alone, R2. A valid question, but a completely different topic."

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Wed Jan 11, 2023 8:57 pm

I didn't have this statistic to hand, but did a test over 1,000,000 hands and tabulated the results.

S1 calls alone in next suit, R2, 2.6% of total hands [note that about 74% of hands are called in R1, and S1 calls, R2, about 17.9% of all hands. Thus, S1 is calling alone, R2, about 27% of the hands that make it this far - if you include the data for green suit calls].
wins all tricks and 4 pts 32% of the time.
EV for these lone calls is +1.77, vs. +1.24 if they were to call with partner (overall average)
(about 20% more sweeps and 25% fewer euchres if call with partner)

S1 calls alone in a green suit, R2, 2.3% of total hands.
wins all tricks and 4 pts. 25% of the time.
EV for these lone calls is +1.49, vs. +1.10 if call with partner
(about 18% more sweeps and 24% fewer euchres if call with partner)

I draw 2 conclusions from these results:
1) next suit is indeed the suit of choice for S1, R2 (not surprising)
2) my simulator is currently a bit more aggressive with green suit lone calls than with next suit lone calls; I seem to have included some more marginal hands which are dragging down the results.

It's hard to judge, from overall average stats, if the next set of marginally good hands should be bid alone. I occasionally revisit and retest the bidding criteria for each seat / round, so this data should be close but perhaps not fully optimized.

Were there numbers you were predicting you would see?

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:37 pm

Very interesting. I have to review your data. See I did not have for Next calls vs Crossing suit. I will study you data to see how closely it matches with what I have based on my tracking. I don't have a number for getting euchre specifically for Crossing but suspect it might be 18 - 20%. Thus, higher than calling next (a guess). My data came from two different sources. One me vs random players and me versus 3 other good players, all combined. When you (me that is) dealing with loners as a low percentage that variance can be wide.

Here is what I have: 70% of hands are called in R1. So 30% make it to R2. In R2 Eldest is calling trump just short of half, 48.3% of the time. S2 calls of those 28.4% and S3 calls 14.7% rest to S4 (when not STD 1% all pass).

Of the R2 calls 48.3% are made by S1 (R2). Of the R2 total calls, S1 he goes alone 11.8% attempted loners and 6.9% are successful (more than half) that make it to R2. But that is only 1.7% of total hands R1 & R2 combined, Next + Green.

I do not have a stat for Next vs Green suit but think 75%+ of those (estimating) are in Next and 25% crossing suit. On R2 S1 gets euchred 13 to 14% calling.

On calling trump for R1: Dealer calls 50%, 26% by S2 and 24% by S1/S3 combined S1 (16%) /S3 (8%). However, as said 30% all pass.

I have to further digest your data. First blush, data seems very reasonable. I thin going alone in Green seems higher that I would guess. GOOD STUFF!

Thanks for running and your efforts.

Very useful, and take away is WATCH OUT FOR ELDEST GOING ALONE! That is where Dealer playing defense is very important and something I have done for a long time. I only observed very few Players who do that well. You have to know when, lol.

IRISH

sdu754
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Unread post by sdu754 » Sun Jan 15, 2023 8:11 pm

raydog wrote:
Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:36 pm
What does "105 of the time" mean? Typo?
It is a type I meant 10% of the time

raydog
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Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Sun Jan 15, 2023 10:37 pm

Is it just me that thinks that "type" for "typo" in sdu754's response is hilarious irony?

(no offense meant; I of course have done similar things, and am proud to bring a smile to others!)

sdu754
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Unread post by sdu754 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 9:31 pm

Proofreading is a lost art

Brazirl
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Unread post by Brazirl » Fri Feb 24, 2023 7:42 am

raydog wrote:
Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:36 pm
What does "105 of the time" mean? Typo?
I think he meant 10% of the time.

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