What to call

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sdu754
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Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:15 am

What to call

Unread post by sdu754 » Tue Jan 10, 2023 11:22 am

You have the following hand As Ad Kd 9 d Jc. The 9s turned down. You are in the first seat. What do you call and what do you lead. I say Diamonds and lead the 9



irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Jan 10, 2023 2:00 pm

Not me, leading the JC!

sdu754
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Unread post by sdu754 » Tue Jan 10, 2023 2:01 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Jan 10, 2023 2:00 pm
Not me, leading the JC!
Are you calling Clubs?

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Jan 10, 2023 5:25 pm

My bad! I miss read the hand thought Left/Ace in Next.

So let's start over - you id not say the score, em I behind, tied or ahead? And how strong are the opponents? Key facts that have to be factored in my decision making.

However, if inexperienced opponents, you can call either Clubs in Next and lead JC is a good call. Opponents have to be bagging in Next to euchre you like 2 & 2 clubs or one has 3. Who would turn down if he/she had JS at S4? And you can't bag unless you have the cards ~ 30 - 33% and you still have two Aces. Pone will have the CLubs well over 50% with the Left. Point is someone has to have Clubs and Spades as you only have one of each. You must ask yourself - Who?

Diamonds is not a bad call either. If you Call Diamonds, crossing suit. lead the AD. For me, what to call . . .That all depends on those opponents if they like to bag. You will score well in Diamonds because you have that AC after trump is led. Crossing suit stops em from always bagging!

Maybe Ray can run his Simulator here.

IRISH

sdu754
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Unread post by sdu754 » Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:13 pm

5 to 5 versus average or unknown opponents

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Tue Jan 10, 2023 10:26 pm

Irish, you have this pretty much spot on.

S1 has AS + A-K-9D+ JC (9S turned). All pass R1, S1 calls R2. 100,000 hands tested.

S1 calls D, R2 [about 42k hands reach this point]
lead AD: EV = +0.33
lead 9D: EV = +0.35
lead AS: EV = +0.14
lead JC: EV = +0.10

S1 calls C, R2:
lead JC: EV = +0.28
lead AD: EV = +0.16
lead AS: EV = +0.09

My simulator would call D, R2, and lead the 9D. Seems to be slightly better than calling C, and leading high or low D are about equally good.
_________________________________

But let's test the sensitivity to slightly different cards. What if we replace the AS with the KS?

S1 calls D, R2 [about 42k hands reach this point]
lead AD: EV = -0.14
lead 9D: EV = -0.10
lead AS: EV = -0.28
lead JC: EV = -0.20

S1 calls C, R2:
lead JC: EV = +0.07
lead AD: EV = -0.05
lead AS: EV = -0.24

It looks like that D call relied heavily on winning with the AS. The dynamics have changed if you only have the KS. Seems best to call next (C), and lead the R (JC). Lots to untangle here...

What if we replace the JC with the JS? (so have L instead of R with a C call, R2):

S1 calls D, R2 [about 56k hands reach this point]
lead AD: EV = +0.82
lead 9D: EV = +0.82
lead AS: EV = +0.45
lead JC: EV = -0.20

S1 calls C, R2:
lead JC: EV = -0.28
lead AD: EV = -0.23
lead AS: EV = -0.27

In this case there is no question, must call D and not C. Once again, leading any trump is fine.
_________________________

One final note. If S2 or S4 calls S, R1 (with the original hand), what do you lead? My simulator found it best to lead the AD in all cases (S2 or S4 calling, alone or with partner)

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:16 am

Good stuff Ray!

But the sidebar is interesting: I agree (quote below) here too but for me it depends more when S2 has a habit ordering weak (9s upcard, S2/S4 is the maker and S1 holds JC AS AD KD 9D).
Seldom should you lead trump into the Dealer who is the maker.
One final note. If S2 or S4 calls S, R1 (with the original hand), what do you lead? My simulator found it best to lead the AD in all cases (S2 or S4 calling, alone or with partner).


IRISH

jblowery
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Unread post by jblowery » Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:59 pm

Yup. I'd definitely call D if I have 3 and leading D. The only exception would be if I had 2 in next and neither one is an ace. If I call next in this situation I'm leading my red suite though.

justme
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Unread post by justme » Sun Jan 15, 2023 4:56 pm

sdu754 wrote:
Tue Jan 10, 2023 11:22 am
You have the following hand As Ad Kd 9 d Jc. The 9s turned down. You are in the first seat. What do you call and what do you lead. I say Diamonds and lead the 9
I say diamonds "for my partner" and I would lead my trump Ace, at any score.

sdu754
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Unread post by sdu754 » Sun Jan 15, 2023 8:08 pm

raydog wrote:
Tue Jan 10, 2023 10:26 pm
Irish, you have this pretty much spot on.

S1 has AS + A-K-9D+ JC (9S turned). All pass R1, S1 calls R2. 100,000 hands tested.

S1 calls D, R2 [about 42k hands reach this point]
lead AD: EV = +0.33
lead 9D: EV = +0.35
lead AS: EV = +0.14
lead JC: EV = +0.10

S1 calls C, R2:
lead JC: EV = +0.28
lead AD: EV = +0.16
lead AS: EV = +0.09

My simulator would call D, R2, and lead the 9D. Seems to be slightly better than calling C, and leading high or low D are about equally good.
I was the one that said to call Diamonds and then lead the 9.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Sun Jan 15, 2023 10:33 pm

Apologies, sdu754. You did indeed also call it "correctly" (if I can assume that my program is outputting the optimal result). And also before Irish did. You are both geniuses.

Irish gave a bit more color and cogent rationale, I think that biased me. What distinguishes a guess or intuition from reasoned response is explaining WHY you think what you think. And I believe it is also a much more versatile educational approach.

Apologies again, I meant no slight. This is a great example of a potentially difficult hand to assess, great post.

Tbolt65
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Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:57 pm

You can call clubs or diamonds. Which way you go depends on opponents and your partner and really depends on you as well.

If clubs, Lead the Jack of clubs.



If diamonds, Lead the King of diamond.


Tbolt65
Edward

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