jblowery wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:28 pm
So on a 1st round call by opponents when you have a couple low cards and then A+2 of green suite (or A+1 of next) it is better to lead the low card than the ace or king of the suite you are heavy in?
The problem is that a green suit has a total of 6 cards. If three are in your hand, then there are three left spread amongst the other players and the kitty. The next suit has 5 cards so if you have two then there are 3 spread amongst the other players and the kitty.
On a first round call, the dealer gets to discard. The question is what he discards but it should be pretty obvious that at least one player is almost certain to have a void in both of the suits in your hand.
The logic behind the next call is that your partner is more likely to have cards in next than your opponents are. Thus, if you lead next, at least one of the opponents will probably have a void in it and trump you. Your partner is a bit less likely than the opponents to have a void so he can't overtrump if for example second seat trumps.
However, in this case your opponents ordered up. The question is which one? Usually when someone orders up, especially if it's the dealer, they're going to have only two suits in their hand. Usually that'll be a green suit and trump.
The green ace is more likely to get through than the ace of next but odds are that one opponent is probably void in that suit too considering that the dealer got to discard and the three in your hand. If the dealer isn't void, he probably has two in that same suit, meaning that his partner is probably void.
As you can see, the odds that somebody can trump either ace is pretty high, although the dealer has an even better chance of doing that than second seat. If both your partner and second seat are void, then he'll overtrump second seat if he can no matter what you lead. So there's no need to worry about that.
The bigger problem is the dealer. If you lead an ace and second seat has to follow suit then your partner is going to be loathe to trump it even if he has a void. That'll let the dealer take it with a small trump. Therefore, what you want to do is lead something that'll trigger your partner to trump it if he can and trump it with something big (like say the left or the ace). That'll force the dealer to either use a big trump to take it, which he might not be able to afford, or just let your partner take it, which will prevent them from making march.
Of course, if for some reason nobody has a void, you want to take the trick yourself. Leading the green king (if you have it) seems to be the best option for this reason since you know you'll win the trick unless somebody has a trump.