2/18 Fri - Ordering, holding 9-10 in trump

[Dlan]

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

[irishwolf]

How many errors does S2 make on this hand? It was a questionable order if your are going to slough a Singleton Ace and only have 9 & 10 of trump.

1) Why would S2 slough a singleton AS on trick 2 and keep the KC which S3 had none to the first trick? This was his Fatal mistake that gave the game away. Ditching the KC results in point, now 9 to 9, and anything can happen! Why do you need a void in Spades with the 9 & 10 of Diamonds.

What is the rationale of Slough an Ace with a weak hand and keeping the KC when S2 has none, and S1 might not a club either?

2) Why did S2 not count the trump and where they might be? After all, he ordered the AD, Dealer played the QD, S1 played the KD. Did S2 have any understanding that if the Dealer had the JD or the JH, he would have led trump instead of the AH on trick 2? You know S1 does not have the Right or he would have led it on trick 3. And Dealer would on trick 2.

3) Did S2 think about what off suits S1, S3 & S4 might have? S1 has no Hearts, so he must have Spades. If he had a another club he would have led it on trick. S3 has no Clubs, so must have hearts and/or spades.

3)So what does the Dealer have? He led the AH and trumped Clubs. Dealer then sloughs the 10H. He must have another Heart because he would have sloughed singleton spade. He have another heart.

5)After S2 wins the 3rd trick, why would he not lead trump trump?

The Facts are, he has no choice, lead the little trump because opponents have bigger trump(s) than the Dealer's AH.

If you can't figure out the lay cards, at least count the Trump known and unknown.

This is not Rocket Science! Or was he trying to lose because this is so basic that all average skilled player should know? It only takes a little quick analysis when playing to figure out what best to play. You don't need 100,000 hands on what is the best course of action.

Oh well, another day.

Irish

[Wes (aka the legend)]

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Good order by S2. This is a "now or never" situation and S2 does not have to worry about blocking his P's loner down 9-8. So this "best I got" order with 2 trump + a green ace should be completely standard. I've also studied this hand configuration and based on my work this is +EV order. Ray's work also backs me up on this as he also got a +EV result although only slightly. The hand he tested was:

upcard

S2:

One could argue that the EV of this hand type is not as reliable down 9-8 becuz this marginal but good order never gets the full benefit of blocking a S1-R2 loner. That's true but this order also never pays the price for blocking their partner's loner either when down 9-8 so that should be close to a wash.

The big mistake in this hand for me is S4 not leading trump on 2nd street. Can't do that. Message to S4: When your P orders from S2 and you take the first trick you MUST lead trump on 2nd street. This is especially true down 9-8. You HAVE to go for 2 in this spot. When you instead lead from a toxic effective quadrupleton ace you're damn near guaranteeing your team never gets 2 points. Also, even those times S2 is near the bottom of his range--like in this hand--a trump lead will often benefit your team anyways by taking out 2 trump from the enemy in one lead. This hand's a good example of that. If S4 correctly leads trump their team makes the point.

As far as S2 throwing away the AS on 2nd street, that has to be a misclick.

[irishwolf]

Where is Your PROOF that you will score two points when S2 orders with the 9 & 10?

Ordering weak, leading the AD on 2nd trick only requires S3 to the JD/KD (JH buried or with S1) or JD/JH, or JH/KD (if JD buried) all sorts of combinations to get euchred. You have to score a point first and stay alive for the next deal to have a chance.

IRISH

[Wes (aka the legend)]

Where is hour PROOF that you will score two points when S2 orders with the 9 & 10?

For S2 it's not about scoring 2 pts, it's about surviving. Down 9-8, he's gotta make this "best I got" call, not just becuz if S4 passes they'll probably lose, but also becuz S2 doesn't have to worry about blocking his P's loner either at this score. On top of that we actually have hard data that backs up this call. In my own kitchen table sample of this hand type I reached the conclusion that this is a +EV call at a greater than 95% confidence interval. Ray's simulator also backs this up (although his EV is significantly lower than my EV it still backed up the claim that calling is better than passing from this hand configuration). IOW not only is this a call down 9-8, this is a call at ANY score except arguably those times we are down a significant amount and we're hunting for loners. For example, say we're in a typical weak euchre game and we are down 9-6 with this holding. In that case I am going to make the negative EV play and pass with this holding hoping to get lucky--hoping my P has that game winning loner. Is it correct to make a -EV play hoping to get lucky? IDK. That's a whole other debate, and a difficult proposition to prove, but that's what I would do.

From S4's perspective, he can't just surrender and play for 1 pt down 9-8 and that's what he's doing when he leads an effectively quadrupleton offsuit Ace after winning the first trick. IMO, S4's play is terrible in this spot and not just down 9-8. I would contend it's terrible at ANY score with the only possible exception being at 9-9. At 9-9 getting 2 points has no value, so that changes the math and opens up the possibility of a different line being better. At ANY other score tho when S2 calls trump and S4 takes the first trick he should ALWAYS lead trump to the maker. I would be shocked if Ray's simulator did not prove that to be the case.

Ordering weak, leading the AD on 2nd trick only requires S3 to the JD/KD (JH buried or with S1) or JD/JH, or JH/KD (if JD buried) all sorts of combinations to get euchred. You have to score a point first and stay alive for the next deal to have a chance.

IRISH

Yes things can go wrong with leading trump, but this still comes down to what line is best overall for S2's range. Even taking into account that S2's range should in theory be wider than normal in this spot, I would be shocked if Ray's simulator showed that leading a quadrupleton off ace is better than leading trump in this spot.

[irishwolf]

Well, you're wrong Wes.

Why, because I was at S4. AD up and he had a long Hesitation that gave away his hand. I knew, no doubt that he was weak, 9D/10D or KD/9D or 10D. I suspect the two opponents if paying attention knew it too. And he may have ordered w/o an ace and sometimes with no voids too. Check out the past posts. So I surmise how best for me to win two tricks. I trumped the first trick and lead the AH. No intention of getting a sweep. Just to live as bad as it was to the next hand 9 - 9 and only a 35% chance to score a point. However, lets put aside what my sensing determined about the assist.

So what was the chance here to make a sweep if the AD is led? S2 has to have the JD/JH & an Ace. Or JD/KD if the Left is not guarded. Or JH/KD if JD is buried. The guarded KD or JH prevents any sweep. And if the AH is led, S2 can still trump the AH if he thinks he can win the rest of the tricks. I contend the AD is known by S2 can he can play accordingly.

But it was the 'hesitation' that told me what he had and why 'survival' was critical not going for a sweep! I have to play my hand based on the information I have. And I surmised it EXACTLY.

Under different circumstances I would agree with you about going for 2, but NOT here. I have no issue about the order.

IRISH

You said, " For S2 it's not about scoring 2 pts, it's about surviving. Down 9-8, he's gotta make this "best I got" call, not just becuz if S4 passes they'll probably lose, but also becuz S2 doesn't have to worry about blocking his P's loner either at this score. On top of that we actually have hard data that backs up this call. In my own kitchen table sample of this hand type I reached the conclusion that this is a +EV call at a greater than 95% confidence interval. Ray's simulator also backs this up (although his EV is significantly lower than my EV it still backed up the claim that calling is better than passing from this hand configuration). IOW not only is this a call down 9-8, this is a call at ANY score except arguably those times we are down a significant amount and we're hunting for loners. For example, say we're in a typical weak euchre game and we are down 9-6 with this holding. In that case I am going to make the negative EV play and pass with this holding hoping to get lucky--hoping my P has that game winning loner. Is it correct to make a -EV play hoping to get lucky? IDK. That's a whole other debate, and a difficult proposition to prove, but that's what I would do. "

[LeftyK]

"The big mistake in this hand for me is S4 not leading trump on 2nd street. Can't do that. Message to S4: When your P orders from S2 and you take the first trick you MUST lead trump on 2nd street. This is especially true down 9-8. You HAVE to go for 2 in this spot. -- Wes got it right and I expect as much from an avg P, which is all you are with me. ever. a v e r a g e.

But we both made a mistake by not leading trumps at all and would made it 9-9 had either of us led them.

[irishwolf]

LOL, you Slough the AS - what the Logic. YOU HAD TWO CHANCES TO WIN A POINT.
You won 2 of 5 games based on your playing. THAT SAYS IT ALL! You have a bunch to learn. Did you know that there were The only games you won was with me (2 of 7) and the only 3 I lost was with you. 5 successful loners by your right hand opponent when you were at S1. Jack up and you had nothing. Want the games and situations? Yep, I left, I got tired of playing against 3.

You hesitated, I knew you only had 9 & 10.

[LeftyK]

Yeah, you saved one of those 5 and we won the game. You know why I gave up FIVE s1 loner chances? Cause I didn't give a flying fuick with you as my P. And the AS was a misclick - don't sit across from me old man when we table up. You've been waiting to pounce on this thread all weekend. LHO or RHO -- no more with you. I won't have your smugness across from me.

[Wes (aka the legend)]

Well, you're wrong Wes.

Why, because I was at S4. AD up and he had a long Hesitation that gave away his hand.

Obviously I can't account for special read based plays as I wasn't at the table. Those go into a category of their own. All I can say about this spot is that S4 not leading trump to his maker P after taking the first trick is a generally poor play. Again I would be shocked if Ray's simulator showed otherwise.

BTW I do not disagree with your read based adjustment. With this new information I would conclude you played the hand well.

[raydog]

I had a look at this hand. First of all, my program doesn't bid this hand from S2 but should: EV = +0.39 if bid vs. EV = 0.21 if pass. It's the usual story of S1 getting a lot of good bids in, R2, if S2 and S4 both pass. I'm still working on optimizing bidding from S2.

The next thing I did was fix S4's cards + the turn and randomize all the other cards. I then played 1,000,000 hands and isolated those where:
1) S2 bid with partner; and
2) S4 wins the first trick with trump and gets to lead 2nd trick.
This happened about 120,000 times.

This sets up the scenario as S4 sees it. Should they lead the AD or the AH?
AD lead: (66,403 / 155,455 / 11,116) [2 pts / 1 pt / euchred] EV = 1.142
AH lead: (45,964 / 183,741 / 3,269) EV = +1.155
So very close, with a slight edge to leading the AH (statistical significance?) Note the higher volatility if trump is led: more sweeps but also more euchres, in an appropriate ratio to balance out the EV effect.

This is much closer than I would have expected. I suspect the issue here is that, though S4 has a tripleton next Ace (little chance of winning) and would like to give it a better chance by first playing a round of trump, doing so leaves them with just those Hearts and no obvious entry into their hand. S1 is probably going to be re-leading whatever suit was trumped on the 1st trick (to create a bit of trumping havoc), and seats 2 and 3 are going to be playing their own Aces or promoting their Kings in the other suits. Unless someone else plays a Heart, that AH is just going to languish in S4's hand. But if S4 leads the AH, there's a small chance it could win, or a somewhat better chance that partner in S2 can win with trump or over-trump, and take control of the hand. And leave S4 in an excellent position to trump another trick.

Anyway, I looked at the play of the hand and noticed that S2 was always trumping the 1st trick with a low trump whenever possible, no matter the rank of the led card. I know this is considered poor play by many, so I tried to run a simulation to see if it was nonetheless the best play.

I played 1,000,000 completely random hands and isolated the cases where S2, as declarer, had the option to trump the 1st lead (about 49,000 hands). Here are the results:
1) always play off: (11,603 / 31,744 / 5,589) EV = +0.89
2) always trump low: (14,571 / 30,853 / 3,512) EV = +1.08
3) trump low if A led, else play off: (14,454 / 30,678 / 3,804) EV = +1.06
So always trumping yielded slightly better results (statistical significance?) than selectively trumping, and never trumping was easily the worst strategy. A few more sweeps and a few less euchres. I ran this twice with virtually identical results.

I then tested this hypothesis again using the hand dealt to S2 in this instance. I ran this for 100,000 hands, with about 18,500 of them offering S2 the option (Hearts was not a popular lead).
1) always play off: (1,934 / 9,611 / 7,053) EV = -0.04
2) always trump low: (2,060 / 11, 565 / 4,973) EV = +0.31
3) trump low if A led: (2,362 / 10,736 / 5,500) EV = +0.24
[remember, I didn't fix S4's cards - this is the scenario as seen from S2's perspective - so the AH can be led]
Once again, always trumping low seems to be the best strategy, but in this instance it reduces overall volatility: less sweeps but also less euchres.

The final consideration with this hand is the score, and that proves to be quite important. S2/S4 would love to get 2 pts here, because that would give them the game right now and they don't have the next deal. On the other hand, the opponents are already at 9, so getting euchred is like getting -1, not -2 (which alters up the significance EV calculations).

Looking at the first set of outcomes (S4 leading the AD vs leading the AH on trick 2), the trump lead yields 20,450 more sweeps vs only 7,850 more euchres - almost a 3/1 ratio. Both of these outcomes will immediately end the game, so it looks quite favorable for S4 to lead the AD.

Indeed, plugging the results from that one decision into the probability-of-winning-the-game program, leading the AD yields a 50.4% chance of winning the game, while leading the AH yields a 45.7% chance. So my conclusion is that leading the AH is not actually a bad play given the EV stats, but given the score in this particular scenario it is better to lead the AD.

[irishwolf]

To get a Sweep both Jacks have to be buried. And that is about 4% if S4 nor S2 has Jack. Any Jack spoils a march. Next question is that S1 has to lead the AC here and Dealer trumps with QD. Anything else does NOT represent this particular situation. So I want to confirm this is what you Simulated?

You Said:

Looking at the first set of outcomes (S4 leading the AD vs leading the AH on trick 2), the trump lead yields 20,450 more sweeps vs only 7,850 more euchres - almost a 3/1 ratio. Both of these outcomes will immediately end the game, so it looks quite favorable for S4 to lead the AD.

Indeed, plugging the results from that one decision into the probability-of-winning-the-game program, leading the AD yields a 50.4% chance of winning the game, while leading the AH yields a 45.7% chance. So my conclusion is that leading the AH is not actually a bad play given the EV stats, but given the score in this particular scenario it is better to lead the AD.
Top

[Tbolt65]

Let's take everyones position who's in the hand and look at how it played out. Wolf's read was that his partner was thin and his only concern was playing for the point. He understands the score and the pause so he went into the hand with the mindset of his partner is very light. He specifically says he puts him on 9, 10 of trump. As for the rest of the possible holdings we don't know wolfs further assessment if any and this is what we have.

Lefty states that the ace of spade was a misclick. We have to give him the benefit of the doubt here. However if his thinking was short suit themselves. It's a bad idea since they dont have any trump high enough to take or force a bigger one if left hand opponent is void as well.

Irishwolf trumps first trick with the Queen. The ace was the up card. S2 had to follow suit on opening lead. So with Irishwolf's assessment He leads the Ace of hearts. I trump in. Seat 2 throws off ace spade (misclick) I lead back spade thinking s2 has the king of spade and hoping some how my partner can trump in. This here if it wasn't for the misclick may have netted them a point. However what follows is a euchre and loss of the game.

It can be debated and Wes already points out the error by s4. It also serves to promote yours and your partners off suit. However I do however understand Irishwolf's assessment and logic and I agree but only up to a certain point. I dont think he goes far enough in his his partners range. If he did. Perhaps he takes a different line of play. Maybe he did but never mentioned it here? Only Irishwolf can tell us.

Tbolt65
Edward

[raydog]

Irish, since this is not bridge there is no "dummy" hand. I either fixed the cards in S2's hand (if investigating what decision S2 should make) or I fixed the cards in S4's hand (if investigating what decision S4 should make). So both bowers do not need to be buried; one or both can always be in partner's hand, depending on which perspective you are looking at the hand from.

I didn't fix both hands because that is a very specific case which neither player can ever be sure is the actual case. It's a game of probabilities, and you need to make decisions based on that. If you felt certain that your partner made a very weak call, that's excellent, and you should definitely alter your strategy accordingly. I don't pretend to be able to simulate that. I'm just looking at pure odds with random hands - no extraneous information other than the cards a particular player can see. I believe it's a powerful approach, but of course necessary limited.

[irishwolf]

Of course, and you cannot conclude about the AD vs AH lead from the Hand on Friday unless you can repeat S2 & S4 and the AC lead. Otherwise, it's apples and oranges. I hope all who are following this understand that?
And I contend from the hand Posted, the AH was the best lead based on the information I had. It was to avoid a Euchre, to live to the next hand. All other situations I would with Bowers randomly being dealt is a different Scenario. But your simulation is fine as it adds to OVERALL situations Bowers randomly dealt and could be at S2 or S4 as it applies in your set up.

I didn't fix both hands because that is a very specific case which neither player can ever be sure is the actual case NOT TRUE AT ALL - READING WHO HAS WHAT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT IN EUCHRE. YOU MIGHT NOT GET IT EXACTLY BUT CLOSE IS GOOD ENOUGH TO ADJUST STRATEGY. ! So I disagree, and had it Right, S2 hand was extremely weak. Why I did not lead the AD. I knew exactly why he 'hesitated' and he had a history of this type Order, and sometimes with no Voids. It's a game of probabilities, and you need to make decisions based on that. If you felt certain that your partner made a very weak call, that's excellent, and you should definitely alter your strategy accordingly. I don't pretend to be able to simulate that.

IRISH

[irishwolf]

ED,

Since you jumped in on the conversation. Your statement below on this, are you fully telling what you know about the what S2 held? Did you not not see the Hesitation. If not then you are as good as I think you are? Secondly, you conveniently not mention about Left not leading trump on Trick 5? And about the AS misclick? About the misclick, he had 3 days to say it was a misclick. It was not until Wes say, must be a misclick, lol. Left has previously not told the truth. Wes gives him an out and he jumps on it to save his bad play.
I know you are friends with Left - so don't candy coat this!

i KNOW B.S. WHEN I SEE IT!

IRISH

et's take everyones position who's in the hand and look at how it played out. Wolf's read was that his partner was thin and his only concern was playing for the point. He understands the score and the pause so he went into the hand with the mindset of his partner is very light. He specifically says he puts him on 9, 10 of trump. As for the rest of the possible holdings we don't know wolfs further assessment if any and this is what we have.

[irishwolf]

So let's address Lefty statement, quoting him, " You know why I gave up FIVE s1 loner chances?" Was it really? Because you started complaining about the cards and WOCG as well as what you were getting in the first game. Then the 2nd and so on. It's not the cards Lefty So which is about the five loners Jack up, your play or Throwing the games?

So let's take it as he says (doubtful) tho:

A person or player who THROWS a game should never be allowed to play on OE! It's another character flaw. Lying and deceit!

And you work at a Bank? Customers beware as anyone who cheats at a social card game is dangerous with customer service, IMO.

IRISH

[raydog]

I love this forum because the expert players share their expertise and analysis of hands to help the rest of us improve our play. And I thank you for that that.

The current thread seems more about acrimony and blame and ad hominem attacks. Not helpful, not necessary, and very frankly off-putting. Can we please focus on the game?

[LeftyK]

This is why YOU should not play on OE, Irish and why most folks stay away. Because YOU expect perfection from a P every single time, on every single card. My goal Monday night was to see how many dealer loners would go for four if I passed on s1r1 calls. I'm telling you, I didn't give a flip s1r1 at all. Would it irk you if I did it? Most assured. And the 6-0 loner I gave up? Why not, put us out of our misery on that game. Wasn't going our and it won't ever go "our" way again. ever. ever. ever.

But your accusation of cheating is w-a-y outta line, buddy.

Good day

[Wes (aka the legend)]

I had a look at this hand. First of all, my program doesn't bid this hand from S2 but should: EV = +0.39 if bid vs. EV = 0.21 if pass. It's the usual story of S1 getting a lot of good bids in, R2, if S2 and S4 both pass. I'm still working on optimizing bidding from S2.

I would say we all are. The general recommendations on Seat 2 play are too tight. Good players are too concerned with blocking their P's loners. Your simulator can certainly help a lot of players improve in this area.

The next thing I did was fix S4's cards + the turn and randomize all the other cards. I then played 1,000,000 hands and isolated those where:
1) S2 bid with partner; and
2) S4 wins the first trick with trump and gets to lead 2nd trick.
This happened about 120,000 times.

This sets up the scenario as S4 sees it. Should they lead the AD or the AH?
AD lead: (66,403 / 155,455 / 11,116) [2 pts / 1 pt / euchred] EV = 1.142
AH lead: (45,964 / 183,741 / 3,269) EV = +1.155
So very close, with a slight edge to leading the AH (statistical significance?) Note the higher volatility if trump is led: more sweeps but also more euchres, in an appropriate ratio to balance out the EV effect.

This is much closer than I would have expected. I suspect the issue here is that, though S4 has a tripleton next Ace (little chance of winning) and would like to give it a better chance by first playing a round of trump, doing so leaves them with just those Hearts and no obvious entry into their hand. S1 is probably going to be re-leading whatever suit was trumped on the 1st trick (to create a bit of trumping havoc), and seats 2 and 3 are going to be playing their own Aces or promoting their Kings in the other suits. Unless someone else plays a Heart, that AH is just going to languish in S4's hand. But if S4 leads the AH, there's a small chance it could win, or a somewhat better chance that partner in S2 can win with trump or over-trump, and take control of the hand. And leave S4 in an excellent position to trump another trick.

Good stuff Ray. Even if we call this a statistical tie, I still would say I am shocked leading trump in this spot did not win out here. Looking back at this hand, I think you're on to something with your explanation. With an effective quadrupleton off Ace, after S4 leads his final trump there's a good chance he now has a strategically worthless hand whereas if he leads his dirty off ace at least it will do something like force out enemy trump for example and sometimes his team will get really lucky and his ace will walk.

Two other things about not leading trump:

1) Since the Ace of trump is a high trump, there's always a chance S4 will be able to overtrump the enemy later in the hand. IOW it is less ideal for S4 to lead the Ace of trump cuz there is value to holding it back. Whereas if S4 had a very low trump with little to no overtrumping value, leading that trump instead is more likely to be the best line.

2) Thinking globally here, it's important to point out that S4 holding back the AD in this spot sacrifices no communication as S2 already knows he has it as that was the upcard. That adds more value to holding it back as not only will S4 never confuse his P, his P will now know that the AD is the only trump S4 has left after trick 1.

If the above was not the case, say S4 had AdQd in trump and the upcard was the Qd and S4 used that Qd on the first trick. Now if S4 leads offsuit he is telling his P he has no more trump even tho that's not true. That false information could affect his P's play in a negative way. Even if not leading trump was very very slightly +EV, I would still recommend leading it to keep communication clean as I would expect the communication benefit to overcome a very slight EV disadvantage.

So I guess what I'm trying to say here is S4's actual hand may be near the bottom of his range as far as what's ideal for leading trump on trick 2 and yet not leading trump is arguably a statistical tie vs leading trump. This leads me to believe that the recommendation that S4 should lead trump to S2, the maker, after he takes the first trick is still on solid ground although it might not be precisely perfect (excluding 9-9 scenarios cuz the math changes).

Btw this discussion leads me to a hypothesis (assume S2 is the maker):

1) If S4 has no off aces to promote, and 2) he has the Ace and some other lower card in trump and 3) the upcard WAS the Ace, then it may be best for S4 to not lead his Ace of trump on trick 2 after he takes the first trick with his lower trump.

Imagine S2 ordered up the Ad upcard and S4 had:



And Spades was led and S4 used the 9D on trick 1.

I'm in Hawaii and my internet is really bad to I'm gonna end my post at this point and respond to the rest later.

[Tbolt65]

ED,

Since you jumped in on the conversation. Your statement below on this, are you fully telling what you know about the what S2 held? Did you not not see the Hesitation. If not then you are as good as I think you are? Secondly, you conveniently not mention about Left not leading trump on Trick 5? And about the AS misclick? About the misclick, he had 3 days to say it was a misclick. It was not until Wes say, must be a misclick, lol. Left has previously not told the truth. Wes gives him an out and he jumps on it to save his bad play.
I know you are friends with Left - so don't candy coat this!

i KNOW B.S. WHEN I SEE IT!

IRISH

et's take everyones position who's in the hand and look at how it played out. Wolf's read was that his partner was thin and his only concern was playing for the point. He understands the score and the pause so he went into the hand with the mindset of his partner is very light. He specifically says he puts him on 9, 10 of trump. As for the rest of the possible holdings we don't know wolfs further assessment if any and this is what we have.

You might want to reread thoroughly instead of seeing a couple sentences.

My relationship with anyone on this board has not and will not affect my ability to logically look at situations or arguments of play. Or tell them how I feel or think.

Since you failed to properly respond in your further deduction of your thought processes on the hand. I will ask you straight out. Did you or did you not think he had anything else besides two weak trump?


I am well aware of pauses and situational playing based on multiple factors that math can't teach anyone. I suspected you didn't go far enough into your analysis if said situation. Instead you reply angrily at me.

Your thought process has merit but your unfocused response to me now just highlights what I've suspected. I know your a smart player but I am interested to your response to my above paragraphs question in regards to the your hand analysis.


Tbolt65
Edward

[Tbolt65]

I'm going to bypass waiting for a response from Irishwolf and just post my breakdown and see where we go from there.


I'm going to being in the position of S4.

My partner pauses enough to make me think he's weak and knowing its 8-9, he's calling me up with his best. Let's say for sake of argument I make the read Irishwolf makes and he's ultra weak in trump. I now have to consider another thing. Does he have any off aces or Suited kings. Any possible voids my partner could have. Now I look down and see I have A-K-Qh with Ad(ordered trump) and the Qd also trump. All of this will tell you what you have to do, depending if or when you get the lead and to play based on whats already have been or have not been played thus far in the hand.

So with putting your partner on the two lowest trump possible. You yourself are two suited. Which is good but Having three hearts to the Ace is not promising to lead with out trump being pulled. Your partner is so weak he can't go over anyone and this gives the other team a chance to take a trick and to better short suit themselves in the process. So trying to thread the needle with your cards and your read on what your partner has , will fail in most cases. So you got hope to drain your opponents of any trump and make your partners off aces or off suited kings good. Also to help promote your Ace-K-Queen to either take a trick or force a last trump out of opponent's hands and pray that your partners off suit will be good on the 5th and final trick.


This line of thinking and play changes in certain scenarios if dealers cards are different or if S2 cards perceived holdings are different. However with this thought process and this fuller assesement of the hand. Trump has to be lead. Other wise I can see and understand why threading the needle is important. S4s hand does not justify threading the needle with a very toxic lead especially with the read we are going with for Seat 2's order.

Tbolt65
Edward

[Tbolt65]

Lefty states that the ace of spade was a misclick. We have to give him the benefit of the doubt here. However if his thinking was short suit themselves. It's a bad idea since they dont have any trump high enough to take or force a bigger one if left hand opponent is void as well.



Tbolt65
Edward

The order up at 8-9 from seat two with two trump and a off ace is paramount. No one should be debating that call and I don't think anyone has.

At the time I personally thought Lefty was trying to show where the King of spades was but he was doing it at the wrong time. That's why I lead back spades after taking the trick so that perhaps my partner might trump it, knowing lefty still had the spade back. This was not the case as we find out later through hand replay. It feels to me he was trying to over think the hand. That he was trying to short suit themselves to create a void on a fresh suit that hasn't been played yet. This is faulty logic because A, he gives up an ace if it was good anyways you saved your trump and B. If it wasn't good, then you just wasted trump on spades and got over trumped and now you have one trump left and a boss king of clubs.

By not throwing the King of clubs. He automatically set's his team. If he keeps the Ace. He has the lead now with two trump left and he sucks out the bauers and all remaining trump and make the point. This right here regardless of what Seat 4 did or did not do cost the team the point and the game.

Whether it was an intentional play or "misclick" only Lefty knows but know this lefty. Don't over think or get cute in times like that. They can cost you the game.


Tbolt65
Edward

[Wes (aka the legend)]

Anyway, I looked at the play of the hand and noticed that S2 was always trumping the 1st trick with a low trump whenever possible, no matter the rank of the led card. I know this is considered poor play by many, so I tried to run a simulation to see if it was nonetheless the best play.

I played 1,000,000 completely random hands and isolated the cases where S2, as declarer, had the option to trump the 1st lead (about 49,000 hands). Here are the results:
1) always play off: (11,603 / 31,744 / 5,589) EV = +0.89
2) always trump low: (14,571 / 30,853 / 3,512) EV = +1.08
3) trump low if A led, else play off: (14,454 / 30,678 / 3,804) EV = +1.06
So always trumping yielded slightly better results (statistical significance?) than selectively trumping, and never trumping was easily the worst strategy. A few more sweeps and a few less euchres. I ran this twice with virtually identical results.

As someone who almost always chooses option 3, I'm very glad you tested this Ray. I gotta say I'm very shocked at the results. I certainly would've predicted that option 3 would comfortably beat option 2. I don't know what to think about this. Mind is blown. At least I know that my line of taking option 3 isn't costing me much as your results suggest this is close to a statistical tie. Btw there are hand configurations I would always trump in on the first lead. Hands like 2 trump+2 aces, 3 trump+2 aces, and 3 trump+suited ace. Basically when I deem that trumping in on 1st street and then leading trump on 2nd street is best for my hand then that's what I'll do.

I then tested this hypothesis again using the hand dealt to S2 in this instance. I ran this for 100,000 hands, with about 18,500 of them offering S2 the option (Hearts was not a popular lead).
1) always play off: (1,934 / 9,611 / 7,053) EV = -0.04
2) always trump low: (2,060 / 11, 565 / 4,973) EV = +0.31
3) trump low if A led: (2,362 / 10,736 / 5,500) EV = +0.24
[remember, I didn't fix S4's cards - this is the scenario as seen from S2's perspective - so the AH can be led]
Once again, always trumping low seems to be the best strategy, but in this instance it reduces overall volatility: less sweeps but also less euchres.

Even with this hand configuration I play off on 1st street on a non-ace lead but I've never felt that great about it. There's a bigger EV difference with this hand vs your data on overall 2S calls. I think I have a good idea why. With the 2 lowest trump we have no way of overtrumping the enemy later in the hand. So the value of laying off the first lead and holding back our 2 trump goes down. My prediction would be if S2 had AdXd in trump then playing off on a non-ace lead would be better. Either way your analysis has changed the way I will play these 2 low trump calls. From now on I'm always trumping in on the first lead. Incidentally someone like Edward who has vast experience in being partner will actually be able to read my hand in this spot. Since I usually play off in this spot unless I'm trumping in to send trump on 2nd street, whenever I do trump in on 1st street and then lead garbage on 2nd st Edward will know I started with 2 low trump. I like the idea that this strategy adjustment communicates a clear message to my P.

The final consideration with this hand is the score, and that proves to be quite important. S2/S4 would love to get 2 pts here, because that would give them the game right now and they don't have the next deal. On the other hand, the opponents are already at 9, so getting euchred is like getting -1, not -2 (which alters up the significance EV calculations).

Looking at the first set of outcomes (S4 leading the AD vs leading the AH on trick 2), the trump lead yields 20,450 more sweeps vs only 7,850 more euchres - almost a 3/1 ratio. Both of these outcomes will immediately end the game, so it looks quite favorable for S4 to lead the AD.

Indeed, plugging the results from that one decision into the probability-of-winning-the-game program, leading the AD yields a 50.4% chance of winning the game, while leading the AH yields a 45.7% chance. So my conclusion is that leading the AH is not actually a bad play given the EV stats, but given the score in this particular scenario it is better to lead the AD.

That's awesome stuff Ray. The value of going for 2 down 9-8 and the fact that the math changes cuz the cost of getting euchred is now only 1 pt....we can generalize this idea to tons of hands. Basically any hand where the EV is close between two paths, down 9-8 always play for 2. For example, if I recall correctly for this S1-R1 call the EV of leading garbage was very slightly better than leading the Right:

upcard

S1 has:

Down 9-8, I think we can safely deduce that leading the Right will now be the best line.

[irishwolf]

Ray, your simulator could not do the AD vs AH lead at the point S4 wins the first trick. Giving S2 his hand and S4 his hand. I worked out to confirm that AH lead is far better at this juncture.

I knew S2 only had 9D & 10D, AS KC 10C, I have AH KH 10H QD AD First trick: AC 10C 10S QD 11C4 = 330 POSSIBLE HANDS

What are the combinations that leading the AD is required to make a point:

S1 JD S2 JH/KD ~12.7% PROBABILITY
S1 JH/KD S2 JD ~12.7% PROBABILITY

APPROXIMATELY 25.4%

I CONCLUDE LEADING THE AH IS GOOD.

Combinations leading the AD is bad because it wipes out all trumps from S2 & S4 (still has to win third trick) That all depends who has what:

S1 JD/JH ~9% PROBABILITY
S2 JD/JH ~9% PROBABILITY
S1 JD/KD ~9% PROBABILITY
S2 JD/KD ~9% PROBABILITY
S1 JH/KD (JD BURIED) ~9% PROBABILITY
S2 JH/KD (JD BURIED) ~9% PROBABILITY

APPROXIMATELY 54% LEADING THE AD IS BAD NEWS LEADING AH IS MUCH BETTER WITH FOR MORE COMBINATIONS.

All other combinations leading AH is better (or it does not matter), but I did not list them. In reality leading AH is better when only two big trumps are split as opponents have to use a trump and S4 still has AD/KH and S2 still has 9D & 10D. More combinations where S1/S3 each have 1 trump than otherwise.

IRISH

[irishwolf]

ED,

Here is to let you know my thoughts beginning with when S2 orders up the AD (me the Dealer). What was over predominating is was the long hesitation then the order. I figured must be really weak. Something like two trumps 9/10, 9/K, 10/K as I had the QD. As to the other three cards probably a doubleton & a singleton. No clue if there was an Ace was one of those three off suit cards.
So I devised my 5 card strategy based on that I had to win 2 tricks. And I played it that way! Leading trump into JD/JH or KD/JD would wipe out both of us. That aspect I was going to avoid by not leading the AD. I knew we could not get a March, but 9 & 9 anything can still happen.

First trick S1 leads the AC, I take note that S3 plays a low spade, but that was my Void. I play low QD. I knew my best strategy was Leading the AH. S1 plays the KD, and S2 sloughs the AS. He has no hearts, I thought probably has the KS. And this now confirms to me that he only has the 9 & 10D and must have a club back. S2 now lead KS and S2 wins the the trick with a low Diamond.

The rest is what it was, and I have already commented on.

I already replied as to what is the BEST lead. Obviously, in the situation, not knowing what S1 & S3 had, the AH. I knew it then and I know it now.

IRISH

[Tbolt65]

We both have the mindset of some how producing or taking tricks to enable our team making their point. You may very well set your hand up for taking two tricks. However, how do you think your partner is going to take a trick with a 9 or ten of trump with out trump being pulled? If your hand configuration was different I would say yes lead that ace or other off suit.

The way I see it. Trump has to be pulled to set up the off suit or to eliminate trump in the opponents hands. Or both. If you do run into Jack, Jack its still ok. You know at least you have hearts and odds are if s1 or s3 is bagging hard on diamonds. You know you will have a likely shot at their heart off suit. Plus whatever off suit your partner may have. You should cover most of the off suits.

In my mind you have to eliminate possibilities. Set both your hand and your partners hand up to take tricks at the end. Three trump against you is what really hurts you and your screwed in nearly every situation, no matter what you do. J/J and J/k you still have a good chance at making point in the worst of scenarios. You could run hearts til the cow come home or a second club or any spade will net two points from your partner.


Tbolt65
Edward

[irishwolf]

ED - I disagree with what your laid out. S2 HAD HIS CHANCE TO TRUMP AND LEAD TRUMP! And if you read the Post I intended for Ray you see that leading the AH is far better in MOST holdings. Even when JH/KD is at S1 and JD at S4 you still have a chance to win your point in the hand Posted.

How can you refute the Post where I gave the combinations? Leading the AD S4 is now takes himself out of play (most of the time). Look at all those combinations where you fall prey to the JD/JH and JD/KD. What is cool about NOT leading the AD, S2 knows where it is. Opponents often make a mistake and S2 can trump, just like he did to your KS. That is just one of the options to get your point. With the worst case, like JD/JH/KD out 66% of the time one of those will be buried. Opponents CANNOT euchre you.


"We both have the mindset of some how producing or taking tricks to enable our team making their point. You may very well set your hand up for taking two tricks. However, how do you think your partner is going to take a trick with a 9 or ten of trump with out trump being pulled? If your hand configuration was different I would say yes lead that ace or other off suit." That situation was set up - you led KS and he trumped. What more would you possibly want? I know I am right, you have not convinced me otherwise. I gave the combinations, etc. etc. I guess we will just have to disagree. But you should take notice of the Post and guess what, it works with the majority of combinations like S2 orders JH/low trump. Even JD/9D and no ACES. You can get euchred if an opponent holds JH/10D/KD if you lead that AD he wins the trick with QD, leads AD. All depends. I can't believe you don's see the advantage?

Ed said, "The way I see it. Trump has to be pulled to set up the off suit or to eliminate trump in the opponents hands. That true if you have the OFF ACES. What about ordering JH/low or JD/low trump and NO ACES. I contend bad. You know how I play, order thin and DON'T LEAD ME TRUMP UNLESS YOU HAVE THE RIGHT.
Or both. If you do run run into both Jack,Jack its still ok. 0][b]Can't believe you said that look at my post on that. You know at least you have hearts and odds are if s1 or s3 is bagging hard on diamonds. You know you will have a likely shot at their heart off suit. Plus whatever off suit your partner may have. You should cover most of the off suits." I just disagree on your strategy.

I said my piece, nothing further to add to your comments.

Irish

[irishwolf]

Ray,

To your Results, trumping low (see below) that should have been broken down - Trump low if you have a Doubleton off suit but Create a void if you have Singleton. Looks like you are completely ignoring the two situations. If you did you will find the EV will be better, IMO. The way I read your results is that "always play off" is with either a singleton or a doubleton A void vs NO void is a big deal! And I think it all depends if I have a King/dblt, I am not trumping. IMO

IRISH

I played 1,000,000 completely random hands and isolated the cases where S2, as declarer, had the option to trump the 1st lead (about 49,000 hands). Here are the results:
1) always play off: (11,603 / 31,744 / 5,589) EV = +0.89
2) always trump low: (14,571 / 30,853 / 3,512) EV = +1.08
3) trump low if A led, else play off: (14,454 / 30,678 / 3,804) EV = +1.06
So always trumping yielded slightly better results (statistical significance?) than selectively trumping, and never trumping was easily the worst strategy. A few more sweeps and a few less euchres. I ran this twice with virtually identical results.

I then tested this hypothesis again using the hand dealt to S2 in this instance. I ran this for 100,000 hands, with about 18,500 of them offering S2 the option (Hearts was not a popular lead).
1) always play off: (1,934 / 9,611 / 7,053) EV = -0.04
2) always trump low: (2,060 / 11, 565 / 4,973) EV = +0.31
3) trump low if A led: (2,362 / 10,736 / 5,500) EV = +0.24
[remember, I didn't fix S4's cards - this is the scenario as seen from S2's perspective - so the AH can be led]

[Tbolt65]

My response and play as outlined is directly related to "only" the current situation. My answer for what you asked just now lies with-in my previous posts. I would lead the ace or other off suit in said scenarios.

Tbolt65
Edward

[irishwolf]

This comment Ed, "response and play as outlined is directly related to "only" the current situation. My answer for what you asked just now lies with-in my previous posts. I would lead the ace or other off suit in said scenarios." ... is obviously just an opinion. You offer no supporting evidence that backs up your "opinion".

I offered solid data and you can refute it? Please don't ignore it, I spent time to demonstrate why. But give me something other than shooting from the hip. I develop my strategy on probability and facts wherever and whenever possible I did it here as the best line of making a point without getting euchred.

And if I am interpreting Ray's simulations correctly, the AH is a better lead even when S2 has stronger hands. I laid out exactly why.

IRISH

[irishwolf]

I think there are holes in your logic, IMO I sometimes play it one way or another. Never if at 9 & 9., IMO.

Wes said,

1) If S4 has no off aces to promote, and 2) he has the Ace and some other lower card in trump and 3) the upcard WAS the Ace, then it may be best for S4 to not lead his Ace of trump on trick 2 after he takes the first trick with his lower trump. (I SAY LEAD S2 SOMETHING HE CAN TRUMP. YOU WILL GET FEWER EUCHRES. BUT IT ALL DEPENDS ON SCORE, PARTNER AND SITUATIONS)

Imagine S2 ordered up the Ad upcard and S4 had:

And Spades was led and S4 used the 9D on trick 1.

I THINK IT DEPENDS ON WHAT S2 PLAYED – DID HE GO 2ND HAND LOW OR PLAY A SPADE.

WHAT IF S2 ORDERED WITH JD 10D NO ACES OR A WHOLE ARRAY OF WEAK HANDS WITH 2 TRUMPS?

IRISH

[Wes (aka the legend)]

And if I am interpreting Ray's simulations correctly, the AH is a better lead even when S2 has stronger hands. I laid out exactly why.

IRISH

Yep, the AH was the best lead overall for S2's entire range. Something I clearly did not see coming. The only question is, is the EV difference between leading the AD vs the AH statistically significant?

Even if it's not, a statistical tie is still a very surprising result to me.

[Tbolt65]

Look I support the ace tripleton lead. Just not in this scenario.

Rays sim, says it's very close but a slight edge to AH. Keep in mind that is done with every range possibility in seat 2, not the static hand we are talking about. There are other variables too complex to program a simulator to. So there could be some errors as the simulator compiles hands and data. But I know we are using it as a general fact finding to see what plays out.

Rays findings also support the other situations I said I would lead the ace in.

To note. Not just this but there will be situations as we all know that are statistical a tie. Plus take into consideration the abstract judgements we make based on intuitive observations of various situations and scenarios.

So if Ray wants to set up the weak hands of seat 4 and two and then randomized the other hands and see what plays out. That will should give some further clarification. I maintain that statistically it will either be close on both sides it doesn't matter which way to it being clear that leading trump will show better long term help for the weak ranges that both seat 4 and 2 have.

Tbolt65
Edward

Edit : Also if seat 2 orders with no king suited or Aces then leading an Ace is best clearly.

[irishwolf]

i don't think you have followed Ray's Posts. He did not test the Hand Posted. He said he could not. I have and gave the facts and combinations that clearly demonstrate the AH is better lead. And you still have not provided any facts, just an opinion. That's okay, I am not here to convince anything of anything or how to play. Most experienced players are Hardcore, and do not have an open mind of different alternatives. It's okay!

Well,I am done on this hand. And as far as 'close', I doubt the Simulator plays optimum as this has been shown in other simulations. Like the JC AC 9C JD 10D. But don't get me wrong those simulations are of real value. It's a massive job to program with all the exceptions and complexities that come up. And true, no one plays Perfect euchre. And it is difficult to have a debate without compelling facts where one differs with what is proposed.

So no more from me on this topic. I know how I will play. BTW, there are situations I would lead the AD. Get down to trick 4 and our side needs two tricks, and S2 (or if S1/S3 like on 2R). I am leading the AD to the maker. It does depend but not in the hand Posted.

IRISH

[irishwolf]

This is in two Parts:

Part A is for Ray, your Simulations. Part B is for anyone!

A) The issue with Item 2, (see below in red), I still have heard from Ray as to this scenario? Item 2 should be broken down into 2 categories. A) Always trump IF YOU ONLY HAVE A DOUBLETON KING OR BELOW vs B) DON'T IF YOU CAN CREATE A VOID. Good players play it this way. This then can realistically be compared with 1) & 2). If not you can elevate that EV, IMO. In addition, playing off all depends. Such as JH/JD, or JD/KD, should not trump except an ACE. JH/JD - never trump even with an ace If you hold 9D/10D you always should trump unless you can create a void. 9D/10D/QD - you should always trump regardless of those other two cards. Does Ray's simulator do this? I SERIOUSLY DOUBT IT!

Thus I will always take those simulations as pointing in the right direction, NOT THE HOLY GRAIL! Just me, sorry Ray, not intended to offend you!

B) Next issue, I contend playing the AH (hand as Posted originally) will out perform even stronger hands that S2 might hold. Euchre rates will be low and S2 can over trump S1. Or he can even trump the AH if he thinks he can win all the rest of the tricks. He knows where the AD. As far as simulations, they have to be played optimally. For example, when AH is led, two unknown hearts, 26% of the time those will be split between S1 & S3. When this occurs or anytime the AH wins a trick, NOW S4 leads his AD (not the KH). Is the simulator programmed to do this? S2 can over trump S1 51% of the time or create a void. What does the simulator do if S2 wins the 2nd or 3rd trump?

Since S2 knows where the AD is, S2 should even use the JH to over trump should S1 trump the AH lead. However, he should not use the JD at the 2nd trick, slough unless he has an ace. Again, how does the simulator play in those situations?

Thus I contend the AH is a better lead to trick 2. So who can refute it, give the STATS that will?

IRISH


RAY - I played 1,000,000 completely random hands and isolated the cases where S2, as declarer, had the option to trump the 1st lead (about 49,000 hands). Here are the results:
1) always play off: (11,603 / 31,744 / 5,589) EV = +0.89
2) always trump low: (14,571 / 30,853 / 3,512) EV = +1.08
3) trump low if A led, else play off: (14,454 / 30,678 / 3,804) EV = +1.06
So always trumping yielded slightly better results (statistical significance?) than selectively trumping, and never trumping was easily the worst strategy. A few more sweeps and a few less euchres. I ran this twice with virtually identical results.

I then tested this hypothesis again using the hand dealt to S2 in this instance. I ran this for 100,000 hands, with about 18,500 of them offering S2 the option (Hearts was not a popular lead).
1) always play off: (1,934 / 9,611 / 7,053) EV = -0.04
2) always trump low: (2,060 / 11, 565 / 4,973) EV = +0.31
3) trump low if A led: (2,362 / 10,736 / 5,500) EV = +0.24
[remember, I didn't fix S4's cards - this is the scenario as seen from S2's perspective - so the AH can be led]
Top

[Tbolt65]

This is in two Parts:

Part A is for Ray, your Simulations. Part B is for anyone!

A) The issue with Item 2, (see below in red), I still have heard from Ray as to this scenario? Item 2 should be broken down into 2 categories. A) Always trump IF YOU ONLY HAVE A DOUBLETON KING OR BELOW vs B) DON'T IF YOU CAN CREATE A VOID. Good players play it this way. This then can realistically be compared with 1) & 2). If not you can elevate that EV, IMO. In addition, playing off all depends. Such as JH/JD, or JD/KD, should not trump except an ACE. JH/JD - never trump even with an ace If you hold 9D/10D you always should trump unless you can create a void. 9D/10D/QD - you should always trump regardless of those other two cards. Does Ray's simulator do this? I SERIOUSLY DOUBT IT!

Thus I will always take those simulations as pointing in the right direction, NOT THE HOLY GRAIL! Just me, sorry Ray, not intended to offend you!

B) Next issue, I contend playing the AH (hand as Posted originally) will out perform even stronger hands that S2 might hold. Euchre rates will be low and S2 can over trump S1. Or he can even trump the AH if he thinks he can win all the rest of the tricks. He knows where the AD. As far as simulations, they have to be played optimally. For example, when AH is led, two unknown hearts, 26% of the time those will be split between S1 & S3. When this occurs or anytime the AH wins a trick, NOW S4 leads his AD (not the KH). Is the simulator programmed to do this? S2 can over trump S1 51% of the time or create a void. What does the simulator do if S2 wins the 2nd or 3rd trump?

Since S2 knows where the AD is, S2 should even use the JH to over trump should S1 trump the AH lead. However, he should not use the JD at the 2nd trick, slough unless he has an ace. Again, how does the simulator play in those situations?

Thus I contend the AH is a better lead to trick 2. So who can refute it, give the STATS that will?

IRISH

Everything you said here with the wider range is 100% correct, you'll find no opposition from me and it is the way to go. It is only when the holdings very small/weak. That your points about over trumping become null because with a 9/10 of trump you are not over trumping anything. This is where leading trump with average to decent off suit is paramount to promote these and to make the opposition bump heads with trump so you don't get caught in the crossfire. To also set up making your partners last trump good in taking any trick that is need or force a last remaining trump out of the opponents hands and then with that the off suit you and your partner are both covering is now good and there is nothing in the way to keep you from making your point.

Tbolt65
Edward

[LeftyK]

To clarify, I did let go of the AS on purpose. Why? To do exactly as Irish says; to make a void, figuring s1 might lead blk again and I had the KC winner remaining n my hand and could small trump a Spade lead. So I either fiend sd1 to lead spades or better yet clubs. I had to get the lead either way (my logic).... I still blame myself for not leading trumps on 4th street (I know better) which would have made it 9-9 their deal. Thank you for the finer points, Edward.
Ray/Irish interesting hairline EVs, but I'm in the camp of leading trumps to get outta trouble and I clearly blew it here.

[irishwolf]

This is to ED, T-bolt:

Ed said,"Everything you said here with the wider range is 100% correct, you'll find no opposition from me and it is the way to go. It is only when the holdings very small/weak. That your points about over trumping become null because with a 9/10 of trump you are not over trumping anything. This is where leading trump with average to decent off suit is paramount to promote these and to make the opposition bump heads with trump so you don't get caught in the crossfire. To also set up making your partners last trump good in taking any trick that is need or force a last remaining trump out of the opponents hands and then with that the off suit you and your partner are both covering is now good and there is nothing in the way to keep you from making your point."

Tbolt65
Edward
------
Okay, Ed you know where I stand and I presented facts to why leading the AH is better. You disagree. That's okay.

But I also want to give you a little feedback. I have observed in Numerous discussions between you and Wes When Wes was clearly right you continued to refute his facts. You don't seem to even consider that you might be wrong or come backs with facts, or statistics. Continue to stand your position by opinion. Not once but several times.That is to your disadvantage, IMO. And you may discount this as well.

But it's okay!

IRISH

[Tbolt65]

----------------------------
This is to ED, T-bolt:

Ed said,"Everything you said here with the wider range is 100% correct, you'll find no opposition from me and it is the way to go. It is only when the holdings very small/weak. That your points about over trumping become null because with a 9/10 of trump you are not over trumping anything. This is where leading trump with average to decent off suit is paramount to promote these and to make the opposition bump heads with trump so you don't get caught in the crossfire. To also set up making your partners last trump good in taking any trick that is need or force a last remaining trump out of the opponents hands and then with that the off suit you and your partner are both covering is now good and there is nothing in the way to keep you from making your point."

Tbolt65
Edward
------
Okay, Ed you know where I stand and I presented facts to why leading the AH is better. You disagree. That's okay.

But I also want to give you a little feedback. I have observed in Numerous discussions between you and Wes When Wes was clearly right you continued to refute his facts. You don't seem to even consider that you might be wrong or come backs with facts, or statistics. Continue to stand your position by opinion. Not once but several times.That is to your disadvantage, IMO. And you may discount this as well.

But it's okay!

IRISH

[/quote]

I seriously think you have selective reading sometimes. I don't need to comment. I don't even need to justify my words to what you've said about me. Everything is there to be seen.


Now on the being wrong part. Could I be wrong here with the 9/10 diamond read? Yes but if I'm wrong in the slightest its only by a small fraction. "Could" we be splitting hairs here on this one? About right and wrong, sure.




The following is me opining in general not directed at any one person:

I've said before and I'll mention it again. This applies in many broad situations, plays and ploys. We may come to an understanding of what is accepted and optimal play but this accepted play is not always optimal in all situations. It is recognizing these one off or 1 in many hundreds, thousands or Tens of thousands of hands to adjust and play differently. Identifying hands as they develop and taking new or different lines/approach.

This is how I play. I play and adjust until things work. In my advanced years of playing euchre sometimes I make wrong choices but my over-all play is very, very, very, very solid and there is not many places where my play is always costing my team points. Unless when I am making mental mistakes. Am I perfect in everything? No. We all do make mental mistakes and errors. The best players make the fewest. There are some "grey" areas as Wes likes to say that, is very hard to say what is right/wrong in those situations. Sometimes you got to go by what you know and in that you may have to play uncharacteristically at times and those situations can't be measured enough times since they happen so rarely as Wes also says.

I make adjustments when necessary and I have. Even upon coming to this website and through discussions here I have made adjustments.


In the end we can play with a general mindset of plays (which is fine), however it is the constant critique and adjustments in one's play that will always help the player to be the best they can be.


I can't offer anyone any scientific proof of my plays, my ideas or anything. I can only give you what I know through my experience. I see something work often enough I go with that, I try new plays, I see new hand configurations or situations. I try things out. I learn and see how others play and I try it out. If it works, it works if it doesn't it doesn't. I think my game is at a point that the foundation of my game is great, it is in the minor and small situations that can be ever changing and how ever elusive and fleeting they may be. I try to always play optimally in those situations and it is these situations that require the most adjustments and fine tunning your play against everyone. But as one get's a really solid foundation of play, you will see this is even more so against tougher and tougher opponents. This is where refinement against these tough opponents will take your euchre game to truly the Next Level.

Tbolt65
Edward

edit: was for paragraph spacing