Seat 1, Round 2 Weak Calls

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jblowery
Posts: 168
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Seat 1, Round 2 Weak Calls

Unread post by jblowery » Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:22 pm

Just wondering how many of you would call "NEXT" in these situationsk or would you call something else, or pass?. Seat 1, Round 2. Assume the (Card_K-C) was turned down so spades is next. Assume score is 0-0.

Nothing in next
(Card_Q-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-D) (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H)
1 next + Ace
(Card_K-S) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-C) (Card_Q-D)
1 next only (4-suited; no aces):
(Card_K-S) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-C) (Card_10-D)



irishwolf
Posts: 1273
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:06 pm

I posted then I deleted it to give you what I think is better data. A different but similar hand comes from Wes Quiz, and Ray's Simulator. What I surmise is good analogy of those hands you presented, except perhaps Hand 2 (questionable tho).
So you can see with the hand below you have the Left in Next but nothing else and PASSING IS BETTER than calling Next. Yet both will be Neg EV. With the hand even with the Left it resulted in a more Neg EV than Passing (see below).

But I will say this as to what I personally would do might differ. For me it all depends on my Partner and who the Opponents are. I might call anyway. What the heck, you give up 1 point and the game is young. I have called trump at S1 many times with NO trump and most of the time it has been successful. It not always all about the numbers, Intuition plays a big part in my game. Remember you are not playing 100,000 hands, it this one in particular even tho the odds are against you. How good is your skill at guessing it right. I guess the Gambler's Philosophy or Fallacy, lol. So again, for me, IT ALL DEPENDS.

Maybe Wes or Ray will tune in to your post.

IRISH

RAY's SIMULATOR RESULTS ON WES QUIZ HAND:

Your team is up 6-0. You're in the 1 seat. The dealer just turned down the (Card_9-S) 9s.

You have (Card_J-S) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-H) (Card_10-H)

I did a simulation over 100,000 hands, just shy of 40% make to R2.

bid C: [0, .68, 0, .30, .02, 0] EV = -1.01
pass: [.05, .19, .50, .13, .12, .001] EV = -0.65

So if you bid you get euchred 68% of the time, sweep 2% of the time and score a point 30% of the time.
If you pass, opponents score 4 pts. 5% of the time and score 1 pt. 50% of the time, while you eke out a point (or more) 26% of the time.

I plugged these point probability distributions into my "who wins the game" program, and found that when bidding you can expect to lose 13.8% of games, but when passing you can expect to lose 12.6% of games. I think the fear of opponents scoring 4 pts on a loner here is irrationally high, and it is simply better - statistically - to pass.
Last edited by irishwolf on Sun Feb 13, 2022 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

jspectre
Posts: 230
Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:04 am

Unread post by jspectre » Sun Feb 13, 2022 4:32 am

At even scores, especially 0-0, there's no chance I'm calling next on any of those.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1522
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:11 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:06 pm
I posted then I deleted it to give you what I think is better data. A different but similar hand comes from Wes Quiz, and Ray's Simulator. What I surmise is good analogy of those hands you presented, except perhaps Hand 2 (questionable tho).
So you can see with the hand below you have the Left in Next but nothing else and PASSING IS BETTER than calling Next. Yet both will be Neg EV. With the hand even with the Left it resulted in a more Neg EV than Passing (see below).
The hand you chose--the one from my quiz--is indeed an excellent analogue becuz if one were able to somehow prove that pass-pass is best in that spot--up 6-0--then it basically logically follows that pass-pass will be best in every hand of the OP when the score is 0-0.

Here's the thing tho, I'm not always gonna follow the simulator. There's aspects of my game I am not changing no matter what the simulator says. My euchre approach is highly defensive. I don't pass from S1-R2 when I don't block reverse next except when the game is late and the score is tight (up 9-8 or 8-8 being the most obvious examples). This approach has been highly successful for me. It makes many players hate me, think I'm a fool/idiot or a lucky SOB, but the bottom line is this: In my weekly euchre tournament I have only been eligible to win the Player of the year/championship for two years (2019 and 2021), and I won the championship both those years. Slight tangent: 2019 was my first year as a member and I effectively took myself out of the running in 2020 as I missed 4 months cuz my 86 year old grandma didn't want me to play and get covid and potentially kill her. She's my nextdoor neighbor. I make and deliver her food/smoothies almost every day. Ok so, it's possible I may be a prisoner of my own success (I'm also very happy with my results/stats on the app I play on) I could be acting irrationally here, but I'm not changing this part of my game. I'm passing/calling Next in every example of the OP as I have been doing for the last approx 4 years (although I like Wolf's idea of calling clubs in R1 with 2 trump vs pass-call next with nothing I still would like to see that tested. I've certainly always wondered about that spot).
irishwolf wrote:
Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:06 pm
But I will say this as to what I personally would do might differ. For me it all depends on my Partner and who the Opponents are. I might call anyway. What the heck, you give up 1 point and the game is young. I have called trump at S1 many times with NO trump and most of the time it has been successful. It not always all about the numbers, Intuition plays a big part in my game. Remember you are not playing 100,000 hands, it this one in particular even tho the odds are against you. How good is your skill at guessing it right. I guess the Gambler's Philosophy or Fallacy, lol. So again, for me, IT ALL DEPENDS.

Maybe Wes or Ray will tune in to your post.

IRISH
Yeah I don't think there's a rational way to defend these Next calls but I'm calling anyways....actually there is one rational argument, I think it's a compelling one but it's still more of a hypothesis without statistical backing: the idea is this. Whenever you are playing with randoms on the app/online or in real life with amateurs your team will have a large edge. Why? Becuz YOU are on your team and they don't have YOU on their team. Just by you sitting down your team probably has at least 60% equity. And one of the most common ways your team will lose with that nice advantage will be loner luck, i.e. your opponents will get a 4 pt loner sweep somewhere along the way to catapult them to victory.

When you play my style you limit opponent loner luck severely, but of course there is an apparent cost to that strategy. According to the simulator--I would predict--we'll be burning fractions of points on our weak bs calls from S1-R2 vs pass-pass. But here's the thing, when we are playing teams that are significantly weaker than ours which will almost always be the case cuz we are on our team, they will be burning more points then our defensive calls burn just from sheer bad/incorrect play. So IMO most of the time we will get our cake and eat it too. The opposing team will always be burning more points than us on average even when you factor in our defensive calls AND our play will significantly control their loner luck which is one of the most common ways a weaker team overcomes a better team in this game.
irishwolf wrote:
Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:06 pm
RAY's SIMULATOR RESULTS ON WES QUIZ HAND:

Your team is up 6-0. You're in the 1 seat. The dealer just turned down the (Card_9-S) 9s.

You have (Card_J-S) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-H) (Card_10-H)

I did a simulation over 100,000 hands, just shy of 40% make to R2.

bid C: [0, .68, 0, .30, .02, 0] EV = -1.01
pass: [.05, .19, .50, .13, .12, .001] EV = -0.65

So if you bid you get euchred 68% of the time, sweep 2% of the time and score a point 30% of the time.
If you pass, opponents score 4 pts. 5% of the time and score 1 pt. 50% of the time, while you eke out a point (or more) 26% of the time.

I plugged these point probability distributions into my "who wins the game" program, and found that when bidding you can expect to lose 13.8% of games, but when passing you can expect to lose 12.6% of games. I think the fear of opponents scoring 4 pts on a loner here is irrationally high, and it is simply better - statistically - to pass.
BTW I just want point out I strongly feel we MUST call Next in the example from my quiz. I don't care what any simulator in the world says. Up 6-0 blocking no suits one CANNOT pass that hand. I consider that very poor play if one does. I'm not convinced a simulator can really capture that spot.

jblowery
Posts: 168
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:13 pm

Ok. How about this hand? Next?

(Card_Q-S) (Card_9-S) (Card_K-D) (Card_K-H) (Card_9-C)

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1522
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:42 pm

jblowery wrote:
Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:13 pm
Ok. How about this hand? Next?

(Card_Q-S) (Card_9-S) (Card_K-D) (Card_K-H) (Card_9-C)
Same story for me. Pass R1-call Next, Lead the 9S.

Of course it is questionable how helpful that is as what I would do and what we should do are obviously two different things.

jblowery
Posts: 168
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sun Feb 13, 2022 8:01 pm

Yup. That's typically my minimum threshold for next. Not the ones I posted above. For reverse next it would be rt+1 or 3 of anything.

Tbolt65
Posts: 795
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Wed Feb 23, 2022 5:00 pm

jblowery wrote:
Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:22 pm
Just wondering how many of you would call "NEXT" in these situationsk or would you call something else, or pass?. Seat 1, Round 2. Assume the (Card_K-C) was turned down so spades is next. Assume score is 0-0.

Nothing in next
(Card_Q-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-D) (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H)
1 next + Ace
(Card_K-S) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-C) (Card_Q-D)
1 next only (4-suited; no aces):
(Card_K-S) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-C) (Card_10-D)
Some could be player/partner dependant
1. Pass

2. Spades(most of the time) Sometimes pass.

3. Pass


Tbolt65
Edward

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