Even a weak loner can work

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:43 pm

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Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 12:42 am

I would actually predict that at 0-0 it is better to call with this hand than go alone with an offsuit Queen loser. The reasoning is your P holds the Right, and bringing him along means your team gets 2 points A LOT, perhaps often enough to make calling better than going alone.

Down 4-8 tho, I'm definitely going alone here.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:54 am

Do you trump (from S2) a non-A black card lead, or throw off the QH (assuming you have taken your partner along)? Would be a shame to make them potential waste the R trumping in.

Could trump from S2, play a trump on 2nd trick (to partner's R), and hope they have an Ace winner to lead to slough off the QH.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:19 am

Assuming the answer to my previous question is to trump in, I ran a simulation of this hand. Not surprisingly, it's much better to take P along:

bid w/ partner: (6,250 / 3,724 / 26) [2 pts / 1 pt / euchred] EV = +1.62
bid alone: (847 / 8,279 / 874) EV = +0.82

I then looked at chances of winning the game, when starting this hand as the dealing partnership down 4-8.

bid w/ partner: 20.8%
bid alone: 16.6%

It's simply better to go for a great chance of 2 pts (and virtually no euchres) than an 8% chance of getting 4 pts and an equally high chance of getting euchred.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:58 am

raydog wrote:
Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:19 am
Assuming the answer to my previous question is to trump in, I ran a simulation of this hand. Not surprisingly, it's much better to take P along:

bid w/ partner: (6,250 / 3,724 / 26) [2 pts / 1 pt / euchred] EV = +1.62
bid alone: (847 / 8,279 / 874) EV = +0.82

I then looked at chances of winning the game, when starting this hand as the dealing partnership down 4-8.

bid w/ partner: 20.8%
bid alone: 16.6%

It's simply better to go for a great chance of 2 pts (and virtually no euchres) than an 8% chance of getting 4 pts and an equally high chance of getting euchred.
Wow, I didn't know the EV difference would be that huge. Very nice!! Also yes, when S2 calls he should trump in on first lead no matter what is led, then lead trump and hope S4 has an off ace after that. You're instinct was right.

I would've predicted that I'd be very skeptical of a conclusion saying we shouldn't go alone down 8-4 with this holding but the EV difference between decisions is so large I have to agree. Calling is better even down 8-4. The only question left is, should we go alone if we were down 9-6?

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Tue Jan 25, 2022 12:14 pm

If down 6-9 it's closer, but I still find it's better to take partner along.

w/p: 23.2% chance of winning game to 10
alone: 22.5%

I think the idea is to stay alive. While you do win about 8% of games immediately going alone, you also lose as many immediately. Better to get those 2 points (2/3 of the time) and pray to the euchre gods on the next had. Otherwise, you're probably entering the next hand with 7 pts - not a great spot.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:01 pm

raydog wrote:
Tue Jan 25, 2022 12:14 pm
If down 6-9 it's closer, but I still find it's better to take partner along.

w/p: 23.2% chance of winning game to 10
alone: 22.5%

I think the idea is to stay alive. While you do win about 8% of games immediately going alone, you also lose as many immediately. Better to get those 2 points (2/3 of the time) and pray to the euchre gods on the next had. Otherwise, you're probably entering the next hand with 7 pts - not a great spot.
That's close. I don't know if I'd have the discipline to not go for the win down 9-6 lol. However in my weekly tournament it would be easy for me to just call in this spot. In our tournament whoever has the most points after 6 games wins. So points are actually more important than winning.

XaviRonaldo
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Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:35 pm

Euchre can be such a funny game. I've had hands that were far too weak to go alone but actually got euchred by not excluding my partner

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