01-21-22 OE Friday- got euchred #1

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Dlan
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01-21-22 OE Friday- got euchred #1

Unread post by Dlan » Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:47 am




irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:56 pm

Must lead trump!

IRISH

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:08 pm

Interesting. What's your reasoning?

RedDuke
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Unread post by RedDuke » Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:08 pm

raydog wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:08 pm
Interesting. What's your reasoning?
The opponents both passed. Their strong suits are probably in black and they are most likely weak in trump. Maker should lead trump whenever possible.

With that said, this was an incredibly weak call to begin with.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:27 pm

raydog wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:08 pm
Interesting. What's your reasoning?
I also always lead trump in this spot. Specifically, whenever I call from the dealer spot with 2 trump, 2 aces, and I take the first trick with one of my aces, I then always lead trump.

What's my reasoning? I don't really have strong reasoning for always leading trump in that spot. It just seems like it's better than the alternative. I've been playing it this way for probably 30K games. I just think if your opponents are overloaded in trump you're screwed whether you lead trump or not. But those times trump is relatively evenly distributed a trump lead is more effective. This spot is definitely crying out to be tested. No doubt about that. I dont really feel super-strong about this lead. It wouldn't surprise me if I was wrong.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:46 pm

My reasoning is this, Dealer has two trumps and an Ace dblt. You have to lead trump to take out some trumps from the Opponents. You might get lucky in that S2 has Left or Right. But in general, the opponents will have trumps of 1 & 1 or 1 & 2. Reducing them to having one trump. You now get to trump any lead of to your void or they might lead to your AS. You are more vulnerable to the Opponents having trump than you are taking your partner's trump!

It is the best alternative, than letting the Opponents pick off your Ace, like what occurred.

IRISH

RedDuke
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Unread post by RedDuke » Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:00 pm

I have to agree with irish on this one. This is a pretty weak call to begin with. Your partner doesn't have three trump. He would have called if he had serious trump strength. So you know that your opponents probably have two or three trump, one of which is probably a bower.

You need to kill your opponents' trump and you do that by leading trump.

I wouldn't have called here, but I can see why the dealer did. The dealer had no power in next so this call was really more of a block than anything. It was a smart block too, since S1 could have swept the table in Hearts.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:18 pm

OK, I obviously missed something. When I read "must lead trump" I interpret that as S1, as first lead, should lead the KD. Which I find to be a bad lead. If you are talking about the lead on the 2nd trick, that's another story.

I guess I'm missing the sub-context or shorthand!

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:20 pm

Yes, the Dealer must lead trump to trick 2.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:30 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:00 pm
I wouldn't have called here, but I can see why the dealer did. The dealer had no power in next so this call was really more of a block than anything. It was a smart block too, since S1 could have swept the table in Hearts.
2 trump + 2 aces from the dealer spot is a +EV call. You should not be passing that hand up.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:40 am

Quick simulation showed it's close but perhaps slightly better to bid from S4 rather than pass: EV = +0.04 if pass and +0.07 if bid. I ran this twice for 100,000 hands, but really too close to be definitive. Certainly not a bad decision to call.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 12:06 pm

raydog wrote:
Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:40 am
Quick simulation showed it's close but perhaps slightly better to bid from S4 rather than pass: EV = +0.04 if pass and +0.07 if bid. I ran this twice for 100,000 hands, but really too close to be definitive. Certainly not a bad decision to call.
At first I was surprised your results were this close but then I remembered if we pass we have 3 aces which is pretty good defense for our team. The fact that your simulator gets a statical tie here is actually strong evidence supporting the recommendation to always call from S4 with 2 trump, 2 aces because this hand should be one of the best hands from this configuration to pass with in theory and yet calling still ties passing.

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