01-17-22 OE Monday - Should this been played differently

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Dlan
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01-17-22 OE Monday - Should this been played differently

Unread post by Dlan » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:53 am




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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:00 pm

not calling from third unless this was 9-9. and I'm leading the left when I can since my P has no trump. third got lucky.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:44 pm

I've been looking a lot at S3 calls, and I've found that even strong hands are often better off passed because, even if you have an overall positive EV, you give up the opportunity cost of euchring S4 and helping your partner sweep, R2.

In this particular hand, there are two losing cards in the hand (9D and JC), plus a trump to lose if either opponent has the R or guarded A of trump. Really counting on partner. While if you pass, there is a good chance of euchring S4, or if they pass, your partner gets first bid at all the other suits - and you have a nice hand to assist him with a next bid.

100,000 hands; 85,280 make it to you for a decision:
bid: (6,267 / 46,282 / 32,731) [2 pts / 1 pt / euchred] EV = -0.08
pass: EV = +0.50

Far better to pass this hand. You euchre S4 15,728 times (on 33,149 calls) for an EV of -0.42 for S4. When S4 doesn't call, S1 bids, R2, 36,602 times for an EV of +0.97.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:24 am

1) Great work by Ray demonstrating convincingly that S3 should not be making this marginal call. The gap in EVs is over a half a point. That's a huge difference. The only argument left is maaaybe this is a good call if S1 is your typical amateur who plays the 2nd round badly, but I highly doubt that will be the case. The gap in EVs is so large here that I think we can safely say this is a pass EVEN in that common case.

2) S4 should lead the JS on trick 2 to try to promote his KS. That line has never been proven to be correct tho.

3) S3 leads the JC on 3rd street to set up an end play. That's expert. Given S1's garbage offsuit lead on 1st street, S3 can already conclude that this partner has no trump, no aces, and thus no help. S3 has to try to get 3 tricks on his own. Well he already got the first trick on 2nd street. Probably the only way he's getting two more is hoping the Right is in the kitty and setting up an end play with K-Left. Leading the Left on 3rd street would be a bad play and a demonstration of poor hand reading. Leading the Left only works well those time's S4 only started with 1 trump, but it's very unlikely that's the case given that we already know S1 had no trump. Again, S3's best hope is to assume the Right is in the kitty and set up an end play and that's what he did.

4) S4 made a very large mistake. S4 has to read the hand better. In this type of spot, after S3 calls, tricks are tied 1-1 and then S3 leads garbage on 3rd street, that will pretty much always mean S3 is trying to set up an end play. With a high trump (AH) behind the maker, S4 CANNOT give S3 what he wants. S4 MUST NOT play right into S3's hands. Holding Ahth, S4 needs to play off in that spot. S4 should also know based on hand reading that his P is gonna pick up this trick almost EVERY TIME. Remember when S1 leads garbage on 1st street he's telling the whole table he has no trump, no aces. So S4 should know that when S3 leads the fresh JC on 3rd street, his P in the S2 is gonna get that trick, and then the maker is caught in a squeeze with S4 holding the AH behind him. BTW even if all S4 had was the AH instead of having AHTH, S4 should still play off for the exact same reasons.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:26 am

LeftyK wrote:
Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:00 pm
not calling from third unless this was 9-9. and I'm leading the left when I can since my P has no trump. third got lucky.
Becuz we hit a Next call well I'm not even sure we should make this dubious call at 9-9 but if we have one of those P's who will pass on 9 in the 2nd rd--sadly probably the majority of people on the app will pass on 9 in that spot--then we probably have no choice but to make this call at 9-9.

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