01-17-22 OE Monday - Trump in with the right #2

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Dlan
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01-17-22 OE Monday - Trump in with the right #2

Unread post by Dlan » Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:48 pm




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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:52 pm

it's early I'm leading the right and then short ace. easy set.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:03 pm

That's an interesting strategy, and it works for this particular hand. But will it usually work?

I tested 100,000 random hands, and led either the 10H or the JS:

When S2 calls trump (10,544 cases):
lead 10H: (0 / 9,379 / 1,165 ) [2 pts / 1 pt / euchred] EV = +0.67
lead JS, then AC: (0 / 9,189 / 1,355) EC = +0.61

When S4 calls trump (31,388 cases):
lead 10H: (0 / 25,744 / 5,644 ) EV = +0.46
lead JS, then AC: (0 / 24,760 / 6,628) EC = +0.37

So no matter which opponent calls it, R1, I find it's better to lead a low off-suit from S1.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:06 am

raydog wrote:
Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:03 pm
That's an interesting strategy, and it works for this particular hand. But will it usually work?

I tested 100,000 random hands, and led either the 10H or the JS:

When S2 calls trump (10,544 cases):
lead 10H: (0 / 9,379 / 1,165 ) [2 pts / 1 pt / euchred] EV = +0.67
lead JS, then AC: (0 / 9,189 / 1,355) EC = +0.61

When S4 calls trump (31,388 cases):
lead 10H: (0 / 25,744 / 5,644 ) EV = +0.46
lead JS, then AC: (0 / 24,760 / 6,628) EC = +0.37

So no matter which opponent calls it, R1, I find it's better to lead a low off-suit from S1.
Ray, I would assume leading the AC is best vs a S4 call. Did you test that lead?

I suppose you could test an AC lead vs a 2nd seat call too but against a 2S call I prefer leading the JS, followed by the AC, and if I'm lucky enough for my AC to walk then I'd lead the TC on 3rd street. The idea is I'm hoping my Right lead on 1st street takes out S4s only trump. If S4 has more than 1 trump this ploy is doomed but those times S4 has only 1 trump a euchre may be in the making.

Your numbers suggest that strategy is wrong which I'm fine with. It wasn't a spot I was super confident in.

I would never lead the Right vs a dealer call unless I had JJ or JJx. Too often leading the Right vs a dealer call just helps the enemy.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:37 am

I made an error, mixing up offense and defense!

The EV's shown above are for S2 and S4, respectively - but those are the opponents, since you are in S1. You want their EV to be lower!

So revised (and corrected) conclusion: though your chances of euchring are rather small, they do improve if you employ the strategy of leading the JS, followed by the AC.

With an S2 call, euchring odds increase from 11% to 13%, and with an S4 call they improve from 18% to 21%. It's always going to take "luck" to get the euchre, but it's the best percentage play.

I can't see how leading the AC could improve things.
Last edited by raydog on Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:39 am

raydog wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:37 am
[Wes - I sent you a personal e-mail Jan. 19 @ 2:30; I'll delete this aside tomorrow]
I did not know this. Thank you for letting me know. I checked my junk folder and there it was. I'll respond soon.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:27 am

1) S4 made a good marginal call. The work Ray has done on this configuration suggests this call will be better than passing. Altho I suppose we can't be positive as this exact hand was never tested, the evidence gathered so far is clearly pointing in the call direction. After that S1 played the hand well every street.

2) If I were S1 I would've led the AC on 1st street. I'm pretty much always leading my off aces in that spot giving my P a chance to void himself in another suit those times he has no clubs. On rare occasions leading an off ace also gives my P a chance to trump in with a high trump those times he can't create a void. If Ray's work says leading the JS followed by the AC is what's best for S1 against a dealer call I can accept that.

3) Ok so the big question is what should S1 do on 3rd street? Take the trick by trumping the AD with his Right bower or play off? Well first off S1 already knows S2-S4's team can't get 2 points, so at that point in the hand down 0-2 in tricks S1 should be thinking about playing for the euchre. Well if S1 does trump in with the Right on 3rd street, then the lead on 4th street will be in the perfect spot for the Maker, and thus S1's chances of euchring S4 go way down. To play for the euchre I think S1 has no choice but to play off on S4's AD lead on 3rd street. Good news is we already know that AD lead is not that clean as S4 showed a diamond on the first lead, so there's a reason to think optimistically there. We also know S2 has no more trump cuz he didn't lead trump on 2nd street, so there's a great chance S3 has 1 or 2 trump in his hand. If S3 can trump that AD now the lead is in the wrong spot for the maker thus putting the maker in a potential squeeze where he can get overtrumped and that's when a euchre can happen. So the correct play for S1 on 3rd street is to play for the euchre by throwing off his non-boss heart on S4's AD lead.

Another way to hand read this spot: When S4, the maker, leads his AD on 3rd street up 2-0 in tricks, this line almost always mean two things:

1) S4 started with L-x-x and now has a guarded left he can't risk breaking up.

2) S4 started marginal with just 2 trump + an ace.

If 1) is the case, then S1 trumping in with the Right on 3rd street gives S4 the point, as he has a guarded Left with the lead in the perfect spot. Keep in mind for like 95-99% of players, this will always be the case as they are not calling with 2).

If 2) is the case, trumping in with the Right still puts the lead in the perfect spot for the maker, and thus the maker is a huge favorite to get the point.

So again, S1 MUST play off on 3rd street in this spot. That's his team's best chance at a euchre and that's all S1 should care about given that he already holds the Right so his team already has a S4 march stopped.

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