Weak Pick Up - Take Trick 1. What to Lead?

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jblowery
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Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Weak Pick Up - Take Trick 1. What to Lead?

Unread post by jblowery » Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:21 pm

I'm the dealer and I pick up to make the following (marginal) hand. Diamonds is trump.

(Card_K-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_A-C) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H)

Spades is led and I trump it with my (Card_10-D)

What are you leading 2nd trick?
Last edited by jblowery on Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:35 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:42 pm

jblowery wrote: ↑
Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:21 pm
 I'm the dealer and I pick up to make the following (marginal) hand. Diamonds is trump.

(Card_K-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_A-C) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H)

Hearts is led and I trump it with my (Card_10-D)

What are you leading 2nd trick?
You can't trump a heart lead as you have a heart. So I'm sure you meant you trumped a spade lead. You probably should edit that in your OP if you get the chance.

Ok on to the hand, you trump that spade lead now what should you do. Well I can tell you one thing. Over the last 3-4 years there is probably nobody in the euchre universe that has played this hand configuration more than me and I'm still not positive what lead is best on trick 2 (I've certainly experimented with all options). I know that it's between leading the AC or your last trump, and I believe leading the AC is best, but if a simulator indicated that a trump lead was best I'd easily accept it. When you call with marginal hands like this and you take the first trick with a trump get used to the idea of leading your ace unpromoted on 2nd street hoping it walks. One of the good things about leading your AC on trick two is you prevent your team from crossing wires those times your p is void in clubs. When you call this marginal one of the worst things that can happen is your P trumping in on an offsuit trick you had. Usually that occurrence alone is enough to sink your team's ship.
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irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:45 pm

I going to disagree. You have two trumps & AC - lead trump!

IRISH
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Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:21 pm

For the record--same configuration--if I started with Td9d, Qd9d, QdTd, I lead trump on the 2nd lead. With no voids and litte chance to overtrump the enemy I'd rather cause some chaos and hopefully take out two enemy trump with one lead.

If I started out with Adxd or Left-x in trump then I prefer leading the off Ace on trick 2. With a high trump that can overtrump the enemy later I prefer to hold it back.

KdQd, KdTd, Kd9d is the middle ground I'm not sure about. I lead the off Ace as stated but wouldn't be surprised if that's wrong.

Would love to see all these claims tested.
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jblowery
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Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:39 am

Thanks guys. I changed it to spades. Typo, as u I indicated.
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irishwolf
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Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Jan 15, 2022 11:20 am

I have tested it, not just SWAG with this hand Q 10 9 & ACE / 9 green off suit.(from Dealer seat 9 as the up card. I am very confident.

Important and would like to see what Ray's 100,000 simulation would show.

IRISH
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raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Sat Jan 15, 2022 12:01 pm

Irish, I am interpreting this hand differently from you (I think). My interpretation is that dealer has:

(Card_K-D) (Card_A-C) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_9-S) , with (Card_10-D) turned.
Dealer picks up the 10D, discards the 9S, and so is LEFT with the hand originally shown by jblowery.

I think you are interpreting that the hand shown is BEFORE picking up (Card_9-D) and discarding (Card_9-H) , because you mention having 2 trump after winning trick one with a diamond, and the hand you just presented for testing has 3 trump.

Obviously an important difference!
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irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:42 pm

jblowery & Ray, sorry! Yes, very different. I have not tested just two trumps, an Ace and 1 void. I suspect leading is better tho if the AC is led to. If the void is led to, not sure but probably leading the AC is better. That is SWAG, no proof by me.

I tested 3 small with A dblt. Which is as I indicated.

I hope you run your simulator, (on both types) interesting!

IRISH
Last edited by irishwolf on Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:53 pm

Dealer with (Card_K-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_A-C) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) after picking up the 10D. Spades led, S4 trumps with 10D. What to lead, trick 2?

lead 9H: EV = -0.56
lead KD: EV = -0.53
61,482 hands make it to dealer for a decision; 19,466 times S4 wins 1st trick w/ 10D

lead AC: EV = -0.41
lead 9H: EV = -0.47
61,128 hands make it to dealer for a decision; 19,380 times S4 wins 1st trick w/ 10D

lead AC: EV = -0.41
lead KD: EV = -0.54
61,485 hands make it to dealer for a decision; 19,457 times S4 wins 1st trick w/ 10D

So it seems leading AC is the best option.
_________________________________

Dealer with (Card_K-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_A-C) (Card_9-H) (Card_9-S) , turn card is (Card_10-D) .
S4 calls picks up 10D, discards 9S. S4 wins the 1st trick w/ 9D, what to lead, 2nd trick?

lead AC: EV = +0.10
lead 10D: EV = +0.20
73,260 hands make it S4 for a decision; 22,705 times S4 wins 1st trick w/ 9D
Obviously a better hand (3 trump), so S4 calls trump more often and has a better EV.

lead KD: EV = +0.16
lead 9H: EV = +0.09
73,244 hands make it to S4 for a decision; 22,857 times S4 wins 1st trick w/ 9D

lead 10D: EV = +0.21
lead KD: EV = +0.18
72,947 hands make it to S4 for a decision; 22,629 times S4 wins 1st trick w/ 9D

So it seems leading 10D is the best option.
Last edited by raydog on Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:09 pm

RAY, THANKS for running the Tests. Just one question here, what hand does the dealer have 9D or 9H in the 2nd part below?

Irish

Dealer with (Card_K-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_A-C) (Card_9-H) (Card_9-S) , turn card is (Card_10-D) .
S4 calls picks up 10D, discards 9S. S4 wins the 1st trick w/ 9D, what to lead, 2nd trick?

lead AC: EV = +0.10
lead 10D: EV = +0.20
73,260 hands make it S4 for a decision; 22,705 times S4 wins 1st trick w/ 9D
Obviously a better hand (3 trump), so S4 calls trump more often and has a better EV.

lead KD: EV = +0.16
lead 9H: EV = +0.09
73,244 hands make it to S4 for a decision; 22,857 times S4 wins 1st trick w/ 9D

lead 10D: EV = +0.21
lead KD: EV = +0.18
72,947 hands make it to S4 for a decision; 22,629 times S4 wins 1st trick w/ 9D

So it seems leading 10D is the best option.
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Last edited by irishwolf on Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:18 pm

Sorry, dealer has the 9D in her hand (NOT the 10D), and picks up the 10D.

How do I edit my previously published post?
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irishwolf
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Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:20 pm

GOT IT!

P.S. I tested similar hand Ace + 3 trumps (3 smallest). Got similar results.

IRISH
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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:49 pm

raydog wrote: ↑
Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:18 pm
 How do I edit my previously published post?
There should be a pencil icon at the top of your post. This lets you edit
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