Two Trump/Three Suited Loners

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RedDuke
Posts: 213
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Two Trump/Three Suited Loners

Post by RedDuke » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:30 am

It is sometimes amazing how seemingly weak hands can make effective loners. Most people would never call a loner if they are holding only two trumps, let alone being three suited. I think I might try hands like this more often after a lesson I learned in a game online last night.

I was sitting in first seat holding:

(Card_J-H) (Card_A-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_Q-C)

Upcard was the (Card_J-D) . Score was 2-0 in our favor so even though I didn't have the loner stopped, I didn't donate either partly because it wouldn't be the end of the world if the dealer made a successful lone and because with me holding two aces plus the left, I'd have a good chance to stop most lones (unless dealer had four trumps or something like that).

Ultimately though, everybody passed. This put me into an interesting position as I seriously started thinking about trying the above hand alone in next. With the opponents turning down a red bower, odds are that any strength they had would be in a black suit. Even then, I'm holding both the Ace-Jack of spades, so unless one of them is loaded with clubs, they might not have any real power there either. With the Jack-Diamonds turned down, I'm also now holding the top two trumps in next.

For reasons that I'm not sure of (maybe habit and/or conservative play), I did call hearts but didn't go alone. I led the right, partner showed void, so I led the Ace on the second lead. Then lead the Ace-Spades, which also walked as everybody was void in trumps at that point. Ultimately, I wound up taking all five tricks (I was stunned that the queen walked). Gotta take a bigger chance with hands like that, because it was pretty unlikely that I'd have been euchred.



Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:44 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:30 am
It is sometimes amazing how seemingly weak hands can make effective loners. Most people would never call a loner if they are holding only two trumps, let alone being three suited. I think I might try hands like this more often after a lesson I learned in a game online last night.

I was sitting in first seat holding:

(Card_J-H) (Card_A-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_Q-C)

Upcard was the (Card_J-D) . Score was 2-0 in our favor so even though I didn't have the loner stopped, I didn't donate either partly because it wouldn't be the end of the world if the dealer made a successful lone and because with me holding two aces plus the left, I'd have a good chance to stop most lones (unless dealer had four trumps or something like that).
Good non-donate IMO for the all the reasons you listed. I would only donate with this specific hand up 9-6 or 9-7. Having 2 aces is key and even just having the left removes a lot of loner combos out of the dealer's hand (we don't have to worry about seat 2 going alone since you already have him stopped).
RedDuke wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:30 am
Ultimately though, everybody passed. This put me into an interesting position as I seriously started thinking about trying the above hand alone in next. With the opponents turning down a red bower, odds are that any strength they had would be in a black suit. Even then, I'm holding both the Ace-Jack of spades, so unless one of them is loaded with clubs, they might not have any real power there either. With the Jack-Diamonds turned down, I'm also now holding the top two trumps in next.
I think it's an interesting spot too becuz it opens up the question: "With the top two trump + an off suited ace, how low can we go when it comes to going alone?"
RedDuke wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:30 am
For reasons that I'm not sure of (maybe habit and/or conservative play), I did call hearts but didn't go alone. I led the right, partner showed void, so I led the Ace on the second lead. Then lead the Ace-Spades, which also walked as everybody was void in trumps at that point. Ultimately, I wound up taking all five tricks (I was stunned that the queen walked). Gotta take a bigger chance with hands like that, because it was pretty unlikely that I'd have been euchred.
Assuming a neutral score, I wouldn't beat yourself up too much over this one. If just calling here is a mistake I doubt it is a very big one. If you were down 9-6 then yeah you totally messed up and hopefully you have nightmares about this hand FOREVER :)

To get an idea of where I stand in this spot (assuming neutral score with the Jd turned down), I think you MUST go alone if you had:

(Card_J-H) (Card_A-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_K-C)

Needing only the Ac buried helps a lot as you still have to avoid anyone having a guarded king or queen in spades.

And I think you MUST go alone if you had:

(Card_J-H) (Card_A-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-C)

Not having that gap in spades with your suited Ace really helps your prospects. It's one less thing to worry about. With your original hand you have nearly 3 hurdles to get by: hoping no one has a guarded King or Queen in spades and hoping both the Ac and Kc are buried. I do think your hand is a loner albeit a very marginal one. The power of your hand is the fact that you will go set so infrequently it almost feels like a freeroll so why not go for it! But this still begs the question how low can we go here? Should we pull the trigger at a neutral score with this hand?:

(Card_J-H) (Card_A-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_9-S) (Card_9-C)

I'm certainly going for it with this configuration:

(Card_J-H) (Card_A-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_9-C)

And I'm absolutely going for it with this one too:

(Card_J-H) (Card_A-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_9-S) (Card_K-C)

Edit:

Don't forget about those coveted 2 trump 4 suited loner hands!!

In your spot, gotta go for it if you have this hand imo:

(Card_J-H) (Card_A-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_K-C) (Card_K-D)

As said before, you'll barely ever get euchred and you basically only need 2 cards to be buried.

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:19 am

Suppose you do go alone with this hand. You win the first three tricks (JH AH AS) what is your lead to trick #4?

And I'm absolutely going for it with this one too:

(Card_J-H) (Card_A-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_9-S) (Card_K-C)

RedDuke
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Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:43 am

Suppose you do go alone with this hand. You win the first three tricks (JH AH AS) what is your lead to trick #4?
If you're addressing it to my original hand, I led the Jack-Spades to trick 4. The Ace-Spades ended up pulling all of the remaining spades out of everybody's hand. Maybe not the best move statistically, but it worked in this instance.

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:49 pm

WRONG HAND - you hold 9S and KC

RedDuke
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Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:05 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:49 pm
WRONG HAND - you hold 9S and KC
I'd probably still lead the second spade (the 9). It's a gamble no matter what you do though. By leading the nine, you're betting that the Ace of Spades pulled all of the remaining spades out of your opponents' hands. If you lead the King instead, if either opponent has the Ace-Clubs (53% chance that one of them has it) then your lone is over. By leading the nine, you're hoping that if one of them has two aces, one of which is the ace of clubs, that they'll throw away the wrong ace. There is statistically a higher chance that the Ace of Clubs made it to the fourth trick and it's in an opponent's hand than there is two spades (although yes, if someone has two spades left when you play the Ace-Spades, it'll also beat your lone).

Of course, in either case, if either opponent had three trumps at the start of the hand (which is also a decent chance) then your lone is also stopped.

irishwolf
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Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:46 pm

So we have 4 unknown spades so it depends on what was played to the trick. Chances are with the JS down, the dealer won.t have two spades but his partner could. If they have one AC, they won't be getting rid of it. I think I would play the KC for that reason. If 2nd seat then has a 2nd spade but not the AC (perhaps the AD, he just may slough it on trick 4. There is only a 7% chance 2nd seat has two off suit aces and gets forced - and a 50:50 he sloughs the wrong one.
It's a guess! All depends!

Irishwolf

RedDuke
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Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:32 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:46 pm
So we have 4 unknown spades so it depends on what was played to the trick. Chances are with the JS down, the dealer won.t have two spades but his partner could. If they have one AC, they won't be getting rid of it. I think I would play the KC for that reason. If 2nd seat then has a 2nd spade but not the AC (perhaps the AD, he just may slough it on trick 4. There is only a 7% chance 2nd seat has two off suit aces and gets forced - and a 50:50 he sloughs the wrong one.
It's a guess! All depends!

Irishwolf
How do you figure that the partner is more likely to have two spades than the dealer? The upcard was the Jack of Diamonds, not the Jack of Spades. I could see the dealer being low on diamonds (doubtful he has one since he turned down the right) and the partner having maybe one or two, but not sure why spades would be any more likely to be in the partners' hand than the dealer. Remember, the dealer didn't get to discard here because the upcard was turned down.

Richardb02
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Post by Richardb02 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:38 pm

What do you think about my, Reverse View approach? (Original hand). I see a path to a Lone: Rh, Ah, As, Js, Kc. I see a 90% (guestimate not calculated) chance of making at least 1 point. The score is neutral whether to go for a Lone. Why not go for a Lone since you have such a small chance for failure?

RedDuke
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Post by RedDuke » Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:57 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:38 pm
What do you think about my, Reverse View approach? (Original hand). I see a path to a Lone: Rh, Ah, As, Js, Kc. I see a 90% (guestimate not calculated) chance of making at least 1 point. The score is neutral whether to go for a Lone. Why not go for a Lone since you have such a small chance for failure?
I've gone alone with hands like that. Yeah, there's definitely a risk of getting euchred if an opponent has a guarded left or three trumps but it's worth trying, especially if you're down in the score. That hand won't get euchred all that much.

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