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Unread post by Dlan » Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:51 am
Unread post by justme » Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:22 pm
Unread post by raydog » Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:12 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:42 am
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Dec 23, 2021 3:04 am
That's what I would've guessed, that calling would have a higher EV than going alone with this configuration. Keep in mind tho the score matters here. If the dealer's team is at 7 pts, like in this hand, loners are now only worth 3 pts. That changes the math. Did you account for that in your simulation? If not then I think we can probably clearly say that going alone with this holding up 7-1 is incorrect. If your data has calling marginally better with a successful loner worth 4 points, than surely calling will be significantly better if a loner is only worth 3 points. This of course is assuming that winning is all that matters. If one is playing in a tournament where total points matter, then the above doesn't apply.
If S2 ordered I would discard a green King over a Next 9 for the reasons you've talked about above. I believe Wolf disagrees with me over that. However whether that's correct or not with unknown partners is a different argument than whether that's correct or now with known partners. Real life example: When me and Edward play as partners we always discard green when we have the choice assuming that green is a non-ace. This allows our partner to read our hand better and lead to our void with much greater accuracy. For instance, If I call red from the 2 seat 1st rd and Ed shows a club on the first trick, I can confidently lead a spade on the next trick when necessary knowing there's a great chance Ed is void in that suit and thus will trump in. This is important stuff when calling with marginal hands like R+1+0.raydog wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:12 pmI noticed the greatest advantage to discarding the QC over discarding the 10D when my partner in S2 bid. Since they would only do this if they had a fairly strong hand, they are most likely void in some suit, and are more likely to hold the AC than the AD, since the former is more valuable (more likely to win a trick). They are also more likely to be void in D, the shorter suit. So in that particular instance I think it makes sense. I'm not sure if players go through this analysis when they are dealer in this situation and are deciding what to discard. With Q and lower ranks, the more important decision may be the suit than the rank. Just a thought.
Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:38 am
Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:06 pm
Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Dec 24, 2021 10:24 am
Unread post by RedDuke » Fri Dec 24, 2021 10:21 pm
Why in the world would S3 trump in with an unguarded left? He knows that the maker has the right and is also slightly more likely to be void in diamonds than in clubs.Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:42 amIMO S1 led right. When given the choice between leading the KD or the KC S1 should lead the KD given that his P is slightly more likely to be void in that suit. As it turns out S3 WAS void in that suit but didn't trump in with an unguarded Left. I'm assuming that's a misclick.
Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:18 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Dec 25, 2021 2:41 am
S3 has 1 trump--the best possible one trump, the JD--and a chance to use it by trumping in on the first trick. If the maker has the AD or if your P has just the AH or KhXh trumping in will stop the loner everytime. And thats obviously the goal of S3, to do whatever he can to stop this loner. So of course S3 HAS to trump in here. After all holding onto his JD will do nothing for his team as it will be strategically worthless by 2nd street as the maker will surely clean him out. So It's now or never. First street is usually the only chance S3 has of using his trump to help his team, to stop that loner.RedDuke wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 10:21 pmWhy in the world would S3 trump in with an unguarded left? He knows that the maker has the right and is also slightly more likely to be void in diamonds than in clubs.
The only possible reason to trump in with an unguarded left here would be if he wanted to force the maker to play the right or lose the trick. That makes no sense when S3 does not know where the ace-trump is.
Unread post by raydog » Tue Dec 28, 2021 10:07 pm
Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:10 pm
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