The

You hold :





Round 1 pass or order? Why?
Round 2. If you did pass, what do you call or do you pass again if it was turned down? Why?
Tbolt65
Edward
Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:36 pm
Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:32 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Dec 04, 2021 4:09 am
R1: I would not donate with 2 trump vs a Jack at this score.
Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sat Dec 04, 2021 1:27 pm
Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Dec 04, 2021 3:01 pm
Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sat Dec 04, 2021 4:03 pm
No it's to show how people are looking at the hand and how the decision making process is going on. What justifications if any are people using to make a call, a pass or an order ect... This exercise helps in finding out what people are thinking.irishwolf wrote: ↑Sat Dec 04, 2021 3:01 pmNONSENSE! Was this post intended as a recommended Strategy or as Amusement?
S1 got by with it this time, how about next time?
One hand means NOTHING! This is just Amusing stuff and certainly not statistically valid. Why? Because S3 has all the Aces (AS buried). Now how many times will S3 have 3 ace equivalent? Answer - less that 2%. You have to look at many hands as a Statistically valid strategy. And two hearts buried, not usual occurrence as well. So you just have a rare hand.
And why would S2 not play the JH to the heart lead and give away a trump? And give him or S4 an Ace and see what occurs.
The objective here is to hold the Opponents to one point, 7 TO 6 AND MY DEAL NEXT. I contend to accomplish that goal and best to win the Game is to Pass, Pass!
And to Wes's strategy - CLUBS. What the objective - stop a sweep or loner in Spades? Where the statistical validation of that? I would like to see it.
I have to admit, not 100% confident, but need proof to do differently!
IRISHWOLF
Unread post by LeftyK » Sat Dec 04, 2021 6:09 pm
Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:32 pm
Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:37 am
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 3:53 am
Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think (or I certainly hope not) he is posting the results to add to an argument. If he is I agree that is NONSENSE. What happened in that hand is completely irrelevant....to me at least.irishwolf wrote: ↑Sat Dec 04, 2021 3:01 pmNONSENSE! Was this post intended as a recommended Strategy or as Amusement?
S1 got by with it this time, how about next time?
One hand means NOTHING! This is just Amusing stuff and certainly not statistically valid. Why? Because S3 has all the Aces (AS buried). Now how many times will S3 have 3 ace equivalent? Answer - less that 2%. You have to look at many hands as a Statistically valid strategy. And two hearts buried, not usual occurrence as well. So you just have a rare hand.
"Good" players are trained to reflexively play under in that spot with R+1. I'm on your side on this one. It's ridiculous man. There are obviously times to play under with R+1 but there needs to be a coherent reason why. For one thing I strongly believe that playing under vs a Next call with R+1 on the first lead is gonna burn your team way more than help it (with the exception of having Ace-Right). So many of my BS next calls only make it becuz S2 thinks the "right" play is to play under with his R+1 allowing my P to get a crucial cheap trick my team desperately needs.
We'll never be 100% confident on this. I don't see how we'll ever have the hard data to really KNOW. Testing this spot on the kitchen table is next to impossible. To get a true distribution we'd have to give the dealer the JD upcard, with S1's hand fixed obviously, and then deal the hand out and every time S2, S3 or S4 had a calling hand we'd have to scrap it and re-deal since we can only test this spot out after it legit gets passed around in the first round. That's way too tedious for a sane human to do. Only a good computer simulation can shed light on this one.irishwolf wrote: ↑Sat Dec 04, 2021 3:01 pmThe objective here is to hold the Opponents to one point, 7 TO 6 AND MY DEAL NEXT. I contend to accomplish that goal and best to win the Game is to Pass, Pass!
And to Wes's strategy - CLUBS. What the objective - stop a sweep or loner in Spades? Where the statistical validation of that? I would like to see it.
I have to admit, not 100% confident, but need proof to do differently!
IRISHWOLF
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:14 am
It goes without saying that this intuitive argument would never sway me as any intuitive argument I make shouldn't sway you either. As mentioned or implied in my last post, if you strongly believe that passing is the right play in that spot there is nothing I can say that will compel you to change that belief and the same goes for myself. Hence without hard data there's nowhere to go here. That said, even your intuitive EV argument points to calling clubs imo. Let's go with your 50% euchre rate and let's say we get 1 pt 40% of the time and 2 points 10% of the time. Reasonable estimates when we hold R+1 imo. Ok that would mean the EO (expected outcome) of calling clubs would be (-2)(.5) + (1)(.4) + (2)(.1) = -.4 pts. That means if the EO of passing is worse than -.4 pts then we should call clubs. Well I strongly believe that passing in that spot when we only block 1 out of 3 remaining suits will cost us more than .4 pts on average. So to me your own argument points to calling not passing.irishwolf wrote: ↑Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:32 pm
If you call clubs the euchre rate will be somewhere around 50% +/- 5%, my estimate. And perhaps worst calling Next (Hearts) 55% (+/-5%). But lets just say 50% euchre rate. So now the score is 7 to 7 half the time. Where if you passed they will NOT score a Sweep 50% of the time time. and the euchre rate, about 6% in spades or less in hearts. So the score is now 7 to 6 instead of 7 to 7 50% of the time. I would rather take my chance of them scoring 1 point than putting them at 7 to 7.
Note: Even though the EV will be less calling clubs than passing, it's Ironic.
For me, I am not going to call trump with a euchre rate of 50%. i THINK YOU WILL WIN MORE GAMES WITH MY STRATEGY.
Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:08 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 3:09 pm
irishwolf wrote: ↑Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:08 pmWES, just trying to find the best strategy.
I agree with the EV of making clubs under the assumptions of 50% euchre rate or even if that rate is 45% it will be a negative EV. (-.35 to -.40). I think we can agree on that, and actually, I have strong evidence of that rate.
irishwolf wrote: ↑Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:08 pmBut it is the next statement that I contest is incorrect that Passing will have a worse EV rate, i.e., will exceed -.40. Clearly incorrect based on numerous other tests I have done with S1 passing R2. Most demonstrated a EV .20 to .30, give or take. So that is what i am in disagreement.
Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:20 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Dec 06, 2021 12:12 am
I understand your thought process fully. In fact I've understood it for years now. Still doesn't change the fact that I think calling Next with just the Qh when we have R+1 to run to is poor euchre. I get it. The Right was turned down and you wanna go with Hoyle. We all get that you are statistically more likely to hit your P if you call hearts and statistically more likely to hit the enemy if you call clubs. And that's why when it's reasonably close we should go with Hoyle, but when it's not close--like the difference between R+1 and just a lone Qh--we gotta play our hand, call clubs, and hope for the best. To do otherwise is to commit Hoyle loyal seppuku.Tbolt65 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:20 pmGuys, guys no need to resort to having the information presented being beneath you in terms of being valid. For those who care to read and invest time to see what I was trying to convey. There should be something to be taken away with what I said. As well with what everyone else here said on this scenario.
Thanks Lefty and Wes for the kind words.
Oh, and Wes, my decision making as I've said above should be clear. I was not employing some form of loyal hoyle just be clear. It was more about the score and the fact the Jack of diamonds was turned down.
I know all three of us look at things similarly in some ways but differently in a lot of ways. I wanted to highlight those differences and so we can see the contrast and the deduction process at hand from everyone.
The point of showing the hand was to show what happened. Not only the success but what was in everyone else's hand. Now we can scrutinize who screwed up where and such but that's part of the game. It worked out in the end for Wes and Myself. At the same time, It was possible to make clubs there too if certain mistakes was made as well. I mainly didn't call clubs because a Jack was turned down and at that score I didn't want to pass.
Tbolt65
Edward
Unread post by Tbolt65 » Mon Dec 06, 2021 12:29 am
I agree if there was any other card turned down and I would have called clubs easily. As Ive stated originally. The Jack of diamonds is a special case and as such. Is why I decided to bite the bullet as I said and order hearts.Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 12:12 amTbolt65 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:20 pmGuys, guys no need to resort to having the information presented being beneath you in terms of being valid. For those who care to read and invest time to see what I was trying to convey. There should be something to be taken away with what I said. As well with what everyone else here said on this scenario.
Thanks Lefty and Wes for the kind words.
Oh, and Wes, my decision making as I've said above should be clear. I was not employing some form of loyal hoyle just be clear. It was more about the score and the fact the Jack of diamonds was turned down.
I know all three of us look at things similarly in some ways but differently in a lot of ways. I wanted to highlight those differences and so we can see the contrast and the deduction process at hand from everyone.
The point of showing the hand was to show what happened. Not only the success but what was in everyone else's hand. Now we can scrutinize who screwed up where and such but that's part of the game. It worked out in the end for Wes and Myself. At the same time, It was possible to make clubs there too if certain mistakes was made as well. I mainly didn't call clubs because a Jack was turned down and at that score I didn't want to pass.
Tbolt65
Edward
I understand your thought process fully. In fact I've understood it for years now. Still doesn't change the fact that I think calling Next with just the Qh when we have R+1 to run to is poor euchre. I get it. The Right was turned down and you wanna go with Hoyle. We all get that you are statistically more likely to hit your P if you call hearts and statistically more likely to hit the enemy if you call clubs. And that's why when it's reasonably close we should go with Hoyle, but when it's not close--like the difference between R+1 and just a lone Qh--we gotta play our hand, call clubs, and hope for the best. To do otherwise is to commit Hoyle loyal seppuku.
Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:58 am
Unread post by Tbolt65 » Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:08 pm
Unread post by jblowery » Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:47 pm
Unread post by raydog » Mon Dec 13, 2021 10:21 am
Unread post by raydog » Mon Dec 13, 2021 10:23 am
Unread post by raydog » Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:01 am
Unread post by Tbolt65 » Mon Dec 13, 2021 7:48 pm
Unread post by raydog » Mon Dec 13, 2021 7:56 pm
Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Dec 13, 2021 8:48 pm
Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Dec 13, 2021 9:31 pm
Unread post by raydog » Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:49 am
Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Dec 14, 2021 2:28 pm
Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:46 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:46 am
For the record after I called clubs in that spot I would lead the QH as I consider leading the turned down suit or leading the Right when all we have is R+1 with no ace to promote both poor plays. I would be very surprised if Raydog's simulation showed otherwise. Just throwing that out there that I strongly agree with Raydog's choice to lead the QH, but it goes without saying strong opinions mean nothing when compared with hard data.
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:02 am
Good stuff here. In certain game textures your numbers will even be conservative. For example in a tough game the action will probably only get to the 3 seat in the 2nd round around 5% of the time, not 25%. And of that 5%, S2 will have all suits blocked probably 90% of the time and garbage hands where he has just Next blocked 10% of the time. So your cost of passing when S1 only has 1 out of 3 suits blocked seems very realistic to me.raydog wrote: ↑Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:01 amI compared 3 scenarios for R2: S1 passes, S1 bids C, S1 bids H.
S1 passes:
S1: 0 0 0 | 0 0 0
S2: 578 1,038 62 | 1,919 6,845 1,983
S3: 78 196 3 | 308 2,111 1,080
S4: 61 54 5 | 132 419 48
16,920 hands played [remember, this is a different 100,000 hands from the initial analysis, so slightly
different number of hands make it to R2]
184 hands passed by all [my program doesn't use STD, but the number of hands affected is not significant]
S1/S3 EV = -0.58
S1 bids C:
S1: 0 0 0 | 817 8,306 7,981
17,104 hands played [no "all pass" in this scenario]
S1/S3 EV = -0.35
Note: S1 led the QH in these hands
Somewhat of a surprise, this (perhaps). Despite the euchre rate being 47% [as Irish predicted], it seems it is better for S1 to call C, R2, than to pass. One reason this may be so is that it keeps S2 from calling trump. It appears that S2, if given the chance, will call trump nearly 3/4 of the time in R2, with an EV of +0.80 on those calls. S1's EV when calling C as trump is not great, but better than -0.80.
If S1 calls Next, they should be leading their lone trump. In this spot S1 is basically donating in Next. They have to hit their P hard to escape, so they might as well lead trump. Assuming my take is correct I doubt it will change the numbers much. As I said before calling Next when we have R+1 to run to is an atrociously bad call. No magical lead will change that.raydog wrote: ↑Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:01 amS1 bids H:
S1: 0 0 0 | 569 5,271 11,276
17,116 hands played [new 100,000 hands - I can only compare 2 scenarios with the same cards]
S1/S3 EV = -0.95
Euchre rate = 66%
Note: S1 led the 10C in these hands.
Let's just say that calling next is suicide. Even if it did work out well in the one example given (I would encourage my opponents to call H in this scenario).
Thoughts?
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:07 am
Actually I think we can figure this out from Ray's numbers:Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:02 amWhat's interesting to me tho is what would be better between these two strategies: donating in the 1st rd vs passing and calling Next in the 2nd rd. If your numbers revealed that somewhere I missed it.
S4 is in a very strong position, and scores lots of loners, which begs the question if it is better for S1 to donate. So I ran the set-up again, 100,000 hands, comparing S1 bidding with S1 passing both rounds.
S1 calls D, R1 (donation): EV = -1.49 [16,973 1pt, 83,027 euchred]
S1 passes both rounds: EV = -1.02; successful R1 loners = 12%
Donating has a EV of -.47 vs pass-pass. (-1.49 minus -1.02)S1 bids H:
S1: 0 0 0 | 569 5,271 11,276
17,116 hands played [new 100,000 hands - I can only compare 2 scenarios with the same cards]
S1/S3 EV = -0.95
Euchre rate = 66%
Note: S1 led the 10C in these hands.
Let's just say that calling next is suicide. Even if it did work out well in the one example given (I would encourage my opponents to call H in this scenario).
Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Dec 15, 2021 12:19 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:59 pm
I hope I'm wrong. I'm getting bored. I need to be humbled.irishwolf wrote: ↑Wed Dec 15, 2021 12:19 pmI am going to disagree with this statement, leading the QH is better than leading the 9D:
" For the record after I called clubs in that spot I would lead the QH as I consider leading the turned down suit or leading the Right when all we have is R+1 with no ace to promote both poor plays. I would be very surprised if Raydog's simulation showed otherwise. Just throwing that out there that I strongly agree with Raydog's choice to lead the QH, but it goes without saying strong opinions mean nothing when compared with hard data. "
Yes, I have a strong opinion on lead what was turned down and Promoting my KD. I want the dealer to trump the Diamond lead. Just logic and the fact that 'most' of the time I can trump a Spade (my void) or slough the QH. You limit your options by leading the QH. Does not matter than Ray's program showed leading the QH was acceptable, but was it the best lead? I say NO!
To each his own!
IRISHWOLF
P.S.
Ray, if you are following and can re-capture those (JD down) 16,920 hands (or equivalent) and test leading the (S1 calls Clubs) leading the 9D followed by trumping a Spade lead with the 9C followed by leading the JC to Prove the that S1/S3 will have a better EV than leading the QH to the 1st trick. It would be very helpful here, wrapping up this particular situation.
Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Dec 15, 2021 4:47 pm
Unread post by jblowery » Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:09 pm
Unread post by jblowery » Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:11 pm
Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:59 pm
Unread post by jblowery » Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:46 am
Unread post by jblowery » Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:38 pm
I don't have a simulator but it's pretty obvious that when somebody turns down a jack they are most likely void in that suit (except when they have everything blocked,). If they are even a marginal player.. Played enough hands to see that. Having a rough day? Calm down.
Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:36 pm
Unread post by jblowery » Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:50 pm
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Unread post by jblowery » Mon Dec 20, 2021 9:01 am
Unread post by raydog » Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:17 pm
Unread post by LeftyK » Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:40 pm
Euchre rate of 66% not true when leading the turned down suit from s1r2. That 66% was from club lead. (unless this was corrected further down the thread, I've not scrolled all the way down yet.)irishwolf wrote: ↑Mon Dec 13, 2021 8:48 pmED,
Do you have amnesia?
"The likely hood of Dealer being heavy black is very, very high with a turned down Jack of diamonds. So this in itself is making me cautious about calling anything black. As I've said already with a bower being turned down I can't pass. So the only other option is to call hearts. I bite the bullet here, Call Hearts and would lead the Queen of Hearts."
And look at your results, not based on the one RARE carrot! Euchre rate 66%
IRISH
Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:01 pm
Unread post by jblowery » Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:10 am
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