
You at S1 hold





Two doubletons and a singleton.
What card should you lead to the first trick and why? Does it make much difference?
IRISH
In a later post Irish gives more important, take away Eucre-guidance. But enough analysis for now. Allow me to add a paraphrased guidance from a professor.irishwolf wrote: Sun Nov 14, 2021 12:14 pm It is doubtful to get much response about this??? And I looked in OE on WHAT TO LEAD, and it is not addressed. Yes and yes. I waited for Irish’s reasons. I was confident that he would supply information that was over and above conventional thinking. He exceeded even my high expectations. Irish pointed out that the OE lessons did not address what to lead in this situation. I too, checked the OE lessons. OE lessons are designed to help new players and for experienced players to play better. They aren’t designed to cover the more nuanced situations that arise in Euchre.} So I am going to break this down. So read on:
What is the strategy of leading a singleton when you have two doubletons? I can’t understand what that may be (possibly more likely the dealer has a doubleton and of that suit?)
Irish’s statement underscores that his thinking is outside the box. He challenges the conventional (and yet excellent for the vast majority of hands), OE guidance. His following analysis is a detailed explanation of his concepts!
Let’s break this down on what the Eldest should lead.
First, understand these playing Friday Night Euchre are all known players, in terms of skill, tendencies, etc. etc. Well know also that with the score 9 to 9, you MUST call trump when you get that opportunity. So let’s review this aspect as it is very important as to your strategy. I am not sure that praying as a strategy will help. About Lefty comment, THE ADVICE IS NEVER PLAY A CARD WITHOUT A STRATEGY!
In review of what’s known:
1) The dealer must and did, picked up the Right Bower;
2) Score is 9 to 9, and he knows it do or die - right now on this Bower;
3) The dealer tendencies! He is known to call trump with thin hands;
4) His partner, a good player, would have assisted if had even a thin hand;
SO WHAT TO LEAD:
5) Leading any one of the three off suit you hold with the the S3, the Pone, having the Ace is all equal – basically 28%. So it does not matter from that perspective, statistically speaking;
[Points 1 through 5 are not even debatable!]
6) So what else? You, eldest, almost have a useless hand for a euchre. But never give up hope as slim as it may be. You have to treat this like a loner as you only chance of helping your partner. Many a eucre and lone hands have been stopped with a doubleton just like what S1 holds. [Many a euchre are made and a lone hand stopped with a Doubleton, just like S1 holds.]
He explains 3 key points:
1. You “almost have a useless hand for a euchre.
2. “But never give up hope as slim as it may be.”
3. “You have to treat this [S1 hand] like a loner as your only chance of helping your partner.
All 3 points are excellent, but Point 3 is my major take away. Treat S1’s hand like a loner! Now we have a body of OE lessons and forum discussions that apply to the particular hand.
You have two doubletons, and each is equal in that they will only stop one card of a doubleton should the dealer have a doubleton. However, that is two bites at the apple. So you MUST play this accordingly to eliminate one double that you hold, just like if you held two aces.
NOTE: As a side Bar, I looked afterwards to see if this was addressed in Pages 1, 2 & 3, OE WHAT TO LEAD? I could not find it specifically. Maybe that will change?
7) We are down to choosing which doubleton to lead (Singleton is not an option as stopping a doubleton. Leading the singleton heart, now forces your doubletons, just like forcing two aces as an analogy.)
To continue, you have a doubleton in a Green suit, diamonds. And that leaves 4 other cards of that suit for a dealer doubleton. Not a bad option but you also hold two cards in Next. And, the Left is not an off suit so there are only 3 other cards of this suit – and the chance your partner has the Ace does not change for either your partner or the dealer. However, having a void is 35% in next is more probable. S3 could trump it and force the Right bower the dealer has.
Basic euchre probabilities. Irrefutable and not too difficult to understand.
Thus, Next is better to lead here for S3 trump but also for the dealer to over trump.
The reasonable conclusion, based on simple probabilities.
The scales know tips to discussing the trump suit. [The next level of analysis now must be a discussion of trump]. You have no trump so there are 6 unknown trumps. S2 did not Assist (give him one of the 6, statistically) and now assume at least five (5) of those have to be divided between the Stock, S3 & the dealer. Statistically, give one of those to the stock.
That leaves four (4) trumps, and give just one to the dealer and that leaves the possibility of three (3) to S3.
It could also be the reverse, and the dealer has all those. Of course if he does it Curtains. But never give up hope. You have to treat it this way as your best chance for a Euchre.
So it is CONCLUSIVE, your best line of defense is to lead the Next suit, spades. Having the AS does not change vs hearts or diamonds but trumping high to force the Right does.
Thus eldest MUST reject leading his low singleton heart. That is the worst lead.
Using a quote from Sherlock Holmes, "Excellent! I cried. "Elementary [MY DEAR WATSON You know my methods!]," said he.
That is my position and I am sticking to it!![]()
IRISHWOLF
If you want to improve your game, you must be willing to change. Yet, it is difficult to change our “Hard-wired” habits. I understand how difficult it is to change. I dislike change, but I understand that changes must be made, to improve myself. Dlan’s post reveals that he is dealing with wanting to improve vs. “Hard-Wired” habits. He agrees with a well known individual who asked, “what have you got to lose?” Our mentor, Dlan is open minded, to the concept. The facts, supporting leading the Next Doubleton were clearly presented. That adds up to 2 strong reasons to consider the concept. The explanations for leading the Singleton was clearly inferior to leading the Next Doubleton, IMO.irishwolf wrote: Mon Nov 15, 2021 10:58 pm I thought I already explained it and gave the statistical basis.
Are you saying lead anything but a singleton? YES, LEAD FROM ONE [OF THE] DOUBLETONS. NEXT IS PREFERRED! 2ND CHOICE IS THE DOUBLETON THAT IS 'TOUCHING'. AND 3RD CHOICE IS TO SAVE THE ONE THAT WILL CATCH MORE OF THE OPPONENT'S DOUBLETON. LIKE SAVE THE K/9, OR Q/9 FOR LAST. IF YOU ONLY HAVE DOUBLETON, SAVE IT TO CATCH THE DEALER's DOUBLETON LATER IN THE HAND.
How would you choose between two doubletons?
FOR NEXT, S1 HAS 2 OF NEXT - ~32% CHANCE HAS ACE OR KING (IF ACE IS BURIED) AND HAS 35% VOID. COMBINED IS 67 - 69% FAVORABLE!
LEADING THE SINGLETON - 32% CHANCE ACE OR KING (SAME AS NEXT) HOWEVER ONLY A 16% CHANCE OF A VOID. THAT IS THE BASIS AND FOR S1 NOW DOUBLES HIS CHANCE TO CATCH 'DEALER's' DOUBLETON.
I’m willing to give it a try and see if it helps.
I understand.irishwolf wrote: Sat Jun 11, 2022 12:27 pm Ed, I understand your comment but here is my point:
If this Euchre Forum is of useful information, there should be a sometime I can use when playing the game.
A general statement was made - what do I do with it? How does it help me play? So again, let the author speak to those exception(s). And if he has none, then say that too!
IRISH