Friday 11-12 #3

[Tbolt65]

Interesting playing here.



https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

[irishwolf]

Wrong lead by S1 to the 1st trick. You (S1) has a very little chance for a euchre. He should have led the AH. Why, gives your partner a chance to create a void and short his hand Perhaps, No euchre would have resulted but . . .

You never know!

IRISH

[LeftyK]

how about S2 should be leading the right at very 1st chance !

[Dlan]

In a situation where the maker did not lead trump after having the opportunity to do so, playing the right in 2nd may not be the best move.

[jspectre]

Don't agree with Irish, leading a doubleton A in next is not the right play here.

[jspectre]

In a situation where the maker did not lead trump after having the opportunity to do so, playing the right in 2nd may not be the best move.

Except, the whole reason he didn't lead trump is because he is playing cautiously around the right bower, which S2 is holding. I don't agree with S2's decision to pass on a 9D at that score to begin with, when he has no 2nd round play other than blocking a next call, so at the very least he should be leading trump to take a 2nd trick for his team, and try to secure the march, given that his partner called, and has yet to use any of his trump.

[RedDuke]

In a situation where the maker did not lead trump after having the opportunity to do so, playing the right in 2nd may not be the best move.

Agree with Don. S2 playing the Right would be a mistake here. That's a sure trick so better off saving it until the end.

[jspectre]

In a situation where the maker did not lead trump after having the opportunity to do so, playing the right in 2nd may not be the best move.

Agree with Don. S2 playing the Right would be a mistake here. That's a sure trick so better off saving it until the end.

At this score one must play for the march, not play scared in order to avoid a rare worst case scenario.

[irishwolf]

When you make a statement, " Don't agree with Irish, leading a doubleton A in next is not the right play here" You are obligated to state your reason? What is your supporting data?

And you see what happened to the AH/KH. NOTHING! And they made a sweep. It is questionable that the Dealer would over trump S3 AD (I would trump that ACE in Next. That is the advantage and it gives S3 a chance to sort his hand or use his one and only high trump.

IRISH

[jspectre]

For one thing, it is clearly outlined in the site guidelines, but I know you disagree with those often. lol

[Richardb02]

I fail to see the logic in S4 not leading a small trump on Street 2. He has length in trump. Why not draw trump? Hopefully the Right would be played and the point secured. Then play for 2. Assuming S2 plays his Right and follows with the Qh, to preserve trump, S4 would trump and then lead the Tc. Playing from strength is the general strategy.

Likewise, I like Irish’s Ah (Doubleton) lead. It is playing strength, as a general strategy. S1 has no other strength. Give the Doubleton Next Ace a chance and your P a chance. Irish covered the additional benefits.

[irishwolf]

That is correct for S1's holding . . . S1 has no other strength. Give the Doubleton Next Ace a chance and your P a chance. Irish covered the additional benefits."

But not always, again it all depends. Either the dealer has the R + 1 or has 3 trumps. S3 can create a void or create problems for the dealer by trumping high. But S3 would not trump if he had two trumps, and only if he had a high trump Left or Ace. Dealer has no idea what S1 holds, he might panic. Especially, S holding Left 9 & 10 and has Q, K & R unknown. If I were the dealer, I would slough to create a void if S3 played the Ace. And a sweep ensued. S1 should be thinking, how best can I stop a March? (It's not leading a singleton,(either a club or a spade) I will say that.

Can it be a hazard to lead the doubleton Ace in next? Sometimes, but that's euchre just like leading trump when S2 assists. Like this seasoned euchre veteran I knew. He would say, "Sometimes I play it this way and sometimes that way. Nothing works 100%.

And it does not mean OE's advice on what to lead is incorrect. It all depends on several things to consider. I would say the advice would be, if the Dealer orders thin as a general rule, then Lead it!

IRISH

[RedDuke]

how about S2 should be leading the right at very 1st chance !

Don't agree. Maker didn't lead trump, which should make the partner think that he's short on it. He's actually not in this instance, but that still should leave S2 hesitant to lead the right.

[Tbolt65]

Normally if people who order don't lead trump when they take the first trick. For those who are competent. It means they probably have the Left protected and need their partner to take a trick. Those who have three trump and takes first trick with out a trump and no bauers and don't lead trump right away is just asking for problems(Wes and I disagree on this play but w/e). Dealer should have lead trump with their holdings in this hand. It's a different story if they are trying to play an endgame and allowing their partner to either take a trick, force trump or use trump. They don't have that type of hand here though so the point is moot.

I can understand the trepidation from seat 2 in not leading trump but in either case of Left protected or having 3 trump no aces from dealer. Heck even if the dealer just has two trump no bauers. Leading the right from Seat 2 is ALWAYS the correct and right decision. Seat 2 here just over thought it. Or was scared is what I'm thinking.


Tbolt65
Edward

[Wes (aka the legend)]

Those who have three trump and takes first trick with out a trump and no bauers and don't lead trump right away is just asking for problems(Wes and I disagree on this play but w/e).

There's no disagreement. If I have 3 trump and I take the first trick without using a trump I'm always leading trump in that spot. Always have, always will. Your confusing our disagreement with another situation: EG say diamonds is trump we are the dealer with AdQd9dQcTc and we spend trump on the first trick. I don't think leading trump on trick 2 is correct.

[irishwolf]

If the dealer ordered (low trump) and I am at S2 win that first tricks (Ace or small trump) and have the Right bower, I AM LEADING IT EVERY SINGLE TIME! That\'s two tricks in! OMG

I agree with this statement by Ed,

"Normally if people who order don't lead trump when they take the first trick. For those who are competent. It means they probably have the Left protected and need their partner to take a trick. Those who have three trump and takes first trick with out a trump and no bauers and don't lead trump right away is just asking for problems(Wes and I disagree on this play but w/e). Dealer should have lead trump with their holdings in this hand. It's a different story if they are trying to play an endgame and allowing their partner to either take a trick, force trump or use trump. They don't have that type of hand here though so the point is moot.

I can understand the trepidation from seat 2 in not leading trump but in either case of Left protected or having 3 trump no aces from dealer. Heck even if the dealer just has two trump no bauers. Leading the right from Seat 2 is ALWAYS the correct and right decision. Seat 2 here just over thought it. Or was scared is what I'm thinking."


IRISH

[irishwolf]

However, this type of hand at S4, "EG say diamonds is trump we are the dealer with AdQd9dQcTc (or other combinations 10c/9c or Kc/Qc or Qc/Jc) and we spend trump on the first trick. I don't think leading trump on trick 2 is correct."

I think it 'slightly' favors not leading trump but it is not over whelming one way or the other. S2 having Left or Right. If he has the left but you still need help from S2 to win a trick.
How best to do that . . .? Not leading trump: You look at it, S2 has AC (28%), or S2 void and trumps it (about 15 to 23%). Not leading if S3 wins the club lead, dealer can duck and S2 gets another chance to win a trick. And about 20% of the time he no AC or trump. So expect to be euchred 15 - 20% with that type of hand. Can you afford the euchre?
And it depends as well on how good a player S1 is - will he trump anything or will he slough to get behind the dealer? And how aggressive a player S2 is?

The hazard is if you lead trump, you are down to one trump - that presents a big problem as to winning a trick with your off suit. Slim to none!

A very tricky situation with a number of variables to consider. Either way you play it, you will have a favorable EV.

I have toyed with it a number of times and don't always play it the same way. I have labelled this type of hand, HARDEST TO MAKE A POINT! It's one of those, sometimes I play it this way and sometimes another way.

P.S. I just checked my file on Testing Hands:

DEALER HAS AH KH QH QD KD, 9C DISCARDED I tested this hand and concluded it was better to lead trump after trumping the first trick. Have Next as my off suit with KD is what made this requiring a trump lead. Euchre rate was 20.9% but this is a little different in that this is next in off suit and 44.4% chance of AD is with S2 or Buried.



IRISH

[Tbolt65]

Those who have three trump and takes first trick with out a trump and no bauers and don't lead trump right away is just asking for problems(Wes and I disagree on this play but w/e).

There's no disagreement. If I have 3 trump and I take the first trick without using a trump I'm always leading trump in that spot. Always have, always will. Your confusing our disagreement with another situation: EG say diamonds is trump we are the dealer with AdQd9dQcTc and we spend trump on the first trick. I don't think leading trump on trick 2 is correct.

Oh yeah, I did confuse the two.

Tbolt65
Edward

[raydog]

A few questions / comments for the experts:

1) Why didn't S2 declare R1? Doing a simulation with just S2's hand and the turn card known (10,000 hands) I find an EV of 0.79 if S2 declares and and EV of only 0.06 if they pass. Understand, this is NOT for the hand a shown, but for the hand as seen by S2.

2) When dealer picks up the turn card, why discard the 9H and not the 10C? My rational is that the C suit is one card longer, therefore affording dealer a better chance of being the only one to trump in when C are eventually played. Doing a simulation of 10,000 hands knowing just the dealer's hand and the turn card bears this out: EV of 0.575 if 10C discarded vs. EV of 0.494 if 9H discarded.

3) I did a further simulation fixing just S1's hand and the turn card, and tried different leads. I found no significant benefit to leading the AH, KS or 9C, though an AH lead lead to a few more euchres by S1 and S3 AND a few more 5 pt. hands by S2 and S4; they pretty much cancelled each other out.

4) Finally, I fixed S4's hand once again and simulated 10,000 hands to see what S4 should lead on the 2nd trick if they win the 1st trick without trump. A low trump lead was better than a "worthless card" lead (9H or 10C) by an EV of 0.66 vs. 0.60. A low trump lead was also better than leading the left bower. I think this makes sense because it allows S4 to likely draw out the R bower and promote their L bower to boss, as well as revealing much about the location of the other trump. Maybe a few 5 pt. hands spoiled (+1 pt on the margin), but I would think many more euchres avoided (-3 pts on the margin).

[Tbolt65]

A few questions / comments for the experts:

1) Why didn't S2 declare R1? Doing a simulation with just S2's hand and the turn card known (10,000 hands) I find an EV of 0.79 if S2 declares and and EV of only 0.06 if they pass. Understand, this is NOT for the hand a shown, but for the hand as seen by S2.

2) When dealer picks up the turn card, why discard the 9H and not the 10C? My rational is that the C suit is one card longer, therefore affording dealer a better chance of being the only one to trump in when C are eventually played. Doing a simulation of 10,000 hands knowing just the dealer's hand and the turn card bears this out: EV of 0.575 if 10C discarded vs. EV of 0.494 if 9H discarded.

3) I did a further simulation fixing just S1's hand and the turn card, and tried different leads. I found no significant benefit to leading the AH, KS or 9C, though an AH lead lead to a few more euchres by S1 and S3 AND a few more 5 pt. hands by S2 and S4; they pretty much cancelled each other out.

4) Finally, I fixed S4's hand once again and simulated 10,000 hands to see what S4 should lead on the 2nd trick if they win the 1st trick without trump. A low trump lead was better than a "worthless card" lead (9H or 10C) by an EV of 0.66 vs. 0.60. A low trump lead was also better than leading the left bower. I think this makes sense because it allows S4 to likely draw out the R bower and promote their L bower to boss, as well as revealing much about the location of the other trump. Maybe a few 5 pt. hands spoiled (+1 pt on the margin), but I would think many more euchres avoided (-3 pts on the margin).

Good observations. There is so much going on in this hand. That's why I titled this "Interesting playing".

Tbolt65
Edward

[irishwolf]

RAYDOG, you comment: "3) I did a further simulation fixing just S1's hand and the turn card, and tried different leads. I found no significant benefit to leading the AH, KS or 9C, though an AH lead lead to a few more euchres by S1 and S3 AND a few more 5 pt. hands by S2 and S4; they pretty much cancelled each other out."

Since I commented that the AH should have been led, I will answer again. With what S1 holds, what you are trying to accomplish is not a euchre but to STOP A MARCH. You lead that AH and I contend it is the best lead for S3 to sort his hand by
1) Creating a void if he has two trumps to stop a march;
2) It also best if he is strong enough for a possible euchre; and (S3 GETS END POSITION)
3) To trump high and force the Dealer to either trump high or slough. And if S1 has JD/QD/ or KD the dealer is in big trouble. S3 does not know what S1 holds. And who knows S1 might have two hearts.

And because it was the wrong lead, and if (AH) it was led, I BET the dealer would have sloughed to create a void and a March would not have RESULTED! The dealer if smart cannot afford to over trump as his 9 & 10 then are not worth much because of all the unknown cards out against him (JD, KD, QD) and the euchre rate goes up.

Thus I TOTALLY, DISAGREE about your conclusion of No SIGNIFICANT difference.

IRISH

[Wes (aka the legend)]

A few questions / comments for the experts:

1) Why didn't S2 declare R1? Doing a simulation with just S2's hand and the turn card known (10,000 hands) I find an EV of 0.79 if S2 declares and and EV of only 0.06 if they pass. Understand, this is NOT for the hand a shown, but for the hand as seen by S2.

2) When dealer picks up the turn card, why discard the 9H and not the 10C? My rational is that the C suit is one card longer, therefore affording dealer a better chance of being the only one to trump in when C are eventually played. Doing a simulation of 10,000 hands knowing just the dealer's hand and the turn card bears this out: EV of 0.575 if 10C discarded vs. EV of 0.494 if 9H discarded.

3) I did a further simulation fixing just S1's hand and the turn card, and tried different leads. I found no significant benefit to leading the AH, KS or 9C, though an AH lead lead to a few more euchres by S1 and S3 AND a few more 5 pt. hands by S2 and S4; they pretty much cancelled each other out.

4) Finally, I fixed S4's hand once again and simulated 10,000 hands to see what S4 should lead on the 2nd trick if they win the 1st trick without trump. A low trump lead was better than a "worthless card" lead (9H or 10C) by an EV of 0.66 vs. 0.60. A low trump lead was also better than leading the left bower. I think this makes sense because it allows S4 to likely draw out the R bower and promote their L bower to boss, as well as revealing much about the location of the other trump. Maybe a few 5 pt. hands spoiled (+1 pt on the margin), but I would think many more euchres avoided (-3 pts on the margin).

1) Good stuff Raydog. I and others have have talked about R+1+0 being a call from the 2 seat-R1 for years now but there's been some stubborn holdovers. Maybe your work will jar them loose.

2) Discarding properly has also been a weak point in the Friday-Monday games. I'm glad you addressed that too. Very good work.

3) I agree with Wolf that leading the off Ace is the best play. In fact my stance is more extreme than Wolfs. Excluding the rare hand combos where we should lead trump on defense I think S1 should ALWAYS lead an ace vs a dealer call no matter how dirty that ace is. The idea is without real data guiding us in this spot we should always take the line that maximizes euchres. That should be the default position until proven otherwise. So why lead the ace? Think about all those times we are in the 3rd seat with a hand with euchre potential. What lead are we always praying our P makes? An Ace lead cuz then we can create voids and make our hand even stronger and crucially we can avoid getting overtrumped on the first lead. When the latter happens the euchre chance is almost always over. And if that Ace walks our euchre chances just went up significantly and if it doesn't it still forced out enemy trump which also helps our prospects.
Your data suggests it's a statical tie which I'm surprised about but "a tie goes to the runner" meaning even if all lines were equal, leading an ace would be best for communication reasons cuz then when S1 didn't lead an Ace S3 would know he has none and adjust accordingly.

4) glad to see a low trump lead was better. Not surprised.

5) I agree with your data that calling in the 1st rd is better than bagging and calling Next. Again good stuff.

I dont know how much I should trust your simulator but the work you've pumped out so far looks very good to me.

[Wes (aka the legend)]

5) I agree with your data that calling in the 1st rd is better than bagging and calling Next. Again good stuff

Oops wrong thread. For #5 I was referring to the bag call next thread started by Richard.

[irishwolf]

Ray, on 3) I did a further simulation fixing just S1's hand and the turn card, and tried different leads. I found no significant benefit to leading the AH, KS or 9C, though an AH lead lead to a few more euchres by S1 and S3 AND a few more 5 pt. hands by S2 and S4; they pretty much cancelled each other out.

HOW DID YOUR PROGRAM TREAT S3 WITH A SINGLETON HIGH TRUMP LEFT, ACE & KING TO TRUMP THAT AH LEAD?

It makes a difference?

IRISHWOLF

[raydog]

Irish, my program would not trump the A led by partner in S1, but would throw off some low card, hopefully creating a void. Not a very sophisticated play. I'm guessing that trumping is the better option here because if S4 is void in the lead suit they will trump low, then lead the Right on trick two and rid me of my lone trump (and one of my partner's trump as well). If I play my trump, however, I may force - or entice - S4 to play their R to overtrump, perhaps setting up a high trump in my partner's hand (S1) as boss trump. Or, if my trump wins, I can lead through S4 to my partner for a possible overtrump (if both S4 and S1 are void in the suit I lead). Is that correct?

I do follow the logic of leading the AH on the first trick, I would even add that it promotes the KH to boss which may prove important later in the hand, even if the AH is initially trumped. The fact that my program found no appreciable difference between the different leads is more due its lack of finesse than any fault with your reasoning. I am more interested when I find results that largely favor one play over another - in those cases I think it is giving sound advice, although it may sometimes go against intuition.

[irishwolf]

RAYDOG,

Actually, I already knew this:

"Irish, my program would not trump the A led by partner in S1, but would throw off some low card, hopefully creating a void. Not a very sophisticated play. I'm guessing that trumping is the better option here because if S4 is void in the lead suit they will trump low, then lead the Right on trick two and rid me of my lone trump (and one of my partner's trump as well). If I play my trump, however, I may force - or entice - S4 to play their R to overtrump, perhaps setting up a high trump in my partner's hand (S1) as boss trump. Or, if my trump wins, I can lead through S4 to my partner for a possible overtrump (if both S4 and S1 are void in the suit I lead). Is that correct?" EXACTLY AND WILL IMPACT SWEEPS AND EUCHRES! Better than leading any low singleton. And the reason you found no sig diff.


IRISHWOLF