
https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D
Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:53 pm
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Unread post by jspectre » Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:04 pm
Unread post by jspectre » Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:11 pm
Except, the whole reason he didn't lead trump is because he is playing cautiously around the right bower, which S2 is holding. I don't agree with S2's decision to pass on a 9D at that score to begin with, when he has no 2nd round play other than blocking a next call, so at the very least he should be leading trump to take a 2nd trick for his team, and try to secure the march, given that his partner called, and has yet to use any of his trump.
Unread post by RedDuke » Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:01 pm
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sat Nov 20, 2021 1:28 am
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:28 am
There's no disagreement. If I have 3 trump and I take the first trick without using a trump I'm always leading trump in that spot. Always have, always will. Your confusing our disagreement with another situation: EG say diamonds is trump we are the dealer with AdQd9dQcTc and we spend trump on the first trick. I don't think leading trump on trick 2 is correct.
Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Nov 20, 2021 9:39 am
Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Nov 20, 2021 10:05 am
Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sat Nov 20, 2021 1:11 pm
Oh yeah, I did confuse the two.Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:28 amThere's no disagreement. If I have 3 trump and I take the first trick without using a trump I'm always leading trump in that spot. Always have, always will. Your confusing our disagreement with another situation: EG say diamonds is trump we are the dealer with AdQd9dQcTc and we spend trump on the first trick. I don't think leading trump on trick 2 is correct.
Unread post by raydog » Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:12 pm
Unread post by Tbolt65 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:25 pm
raydog wrote: ↑Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:12 pmA few questions / comments for the experts:
1) Why didn't S2 declare R1? Doing a simulation with just S2's hand and the turn card known (10,000 hands) I find an EV of 0.79 if S2 declares and and EV of only 0.06 if they pass. Understand, this is NOT for the hand a shown, but for the hand as seen by S2.
2) When dealer picks up the turn card, why discard the 9H and not the 10C? My rational is that the C suit is one card longer, therefore affording dealer a better chance of being the only one to trump in when C are eventually played. Doing a simulation of 10,000 hands knowing just the dealer's hand and the turn card bears this out: EV of 0.575 if 10C discarded vs. EV of 0.494 if 9H discarded.
3) I did a further simulation fixing just S1's hand and the turn card, and tried different leads. I found no significant benefit to leading the AH, KS or 9C, though an AH lead lead to a few more euchres by S1 and S3 AND a few more 5 pt. hands by S2 and S4; they pretty much cancelled each other out.
4) Finally, I fixed S4's hand once again and simulated 10,000 hands to see what S4 should lead on the 2nd trick if they win the 1st trick without trump. A low trump lead was better than a "worthless card" lead (9H or 10C) by an EV of 0.66 vs. 0.60. A low trump lead was also better than leading the left bower. I think this makes sense because it allows S4 to likely draw out the R bower and promote their L bower to boss, as well as revealing much about the location of the other trump. Maybe a few 5 pt. hands spoiled (+1 pt on the margin), but I would think many more euchres avoided (-3 pts on the margin).
Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:23 am
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:01 pm
1) Good stuff Raydog. I and others have have talked about R+1+0 being a call from the 2 seat-R1 for years now but there's been some stubborn holdovers. Maybe your work will jar them loose.raydog wrote: ↑Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:12 pmA few questions / comments for the experts:
1) Why didn't S2 declare R1? Doing a simulation with just S2's hand and the turn card known (10,000 hands) I find an EV of 0.79 if S2 declares and and EV of only 0.06 if they pass. Understand, this is NOT for the hand a shown, but for the hand as seen by S2.
2) When dealer picks up the turn card, why discard the 9H and not the 10C? My rational is that the C suit is one card longer, therefore affording dealer a better chance of being the only one to trump in when C are eventually played. Doing a simulation of 10,000 hands knowing just the dealer's hand and the turn card bears this out: EV of 0.575 if 10C discarded vs. EV of 0.494 if 9H discarded.
3) I did a further simulation fixing just S1's hand and the turn card, and tried different leads. I found no significant benefit to leading the AH, KS or 9C, though an AH lead lead to a few more euchres by S1 and S3 AND a few more 5 pt. hands by S2 and S4; they pretty much cancelled each other out.
4) Finally, I fixed S4's hand once again and simulated 10,000 hands to see what S4 should lead on the 2nd trick if they win the 1st trick without trump. A low trump lead was better than a "worthless card" lead (9H or 10C) by an EV of 0.66 vs. 0.60. A low trump lead was also better than leading the left bower. I think this makes sense because it allows S4 to likely draw out the R bower and promote their L bower to boss, as well as revealing much about the location of the other trump. Maybe a few 5 pt. hands spoiled (+1 pt on the margin), but I would think many more euchres avoided (-3 pts on the margin).
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:29 pm
Oops wrong thread. For #5 I was referring to the bag call next thread started by Richard.Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:01 pm5) I agree with your data that calling in the 1st rd is better than bagging and calling Next. Again good stuff
Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:49 pm
Unread post by raydog » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:10 pm
Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:29 pm
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