Right + 2 Second Trick Lead

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jblowery
Posts: 53
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Right + 2 Second Trick Lead

Post by jblowery » Wed Dec 26, 2018 2:35 pm

I'm not a super experienced player I admit. This seems like a common situation for me. I call trump and am holding something similar to the following:

(Card_J-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_10-S) (Card_K-C)

I trump the first trick with my (Card_9-H) . What do I lead the 2nd trick? My right bower or save it for later? I've typically been leading it but have been euchered occasionally because it sucks up my partner's only bower and the oppoenents have left protected. Then they take the last 3. Should I throw off a low card instead on 2nd trick?



RedDuke
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Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:06 pm

I normally lead the right bower in the case you mention and don't get euchred that often.

We do need more information though. What seat are you in? Is this is a first round call from first seat (so you're ordering an extra trump into your opponents' hands) or is this a next call from first seat?

You can usually depend on your partner for one trick. However, in the case you mention, if you're sitting in first seat and the dealer turned down a black card, then this may not be true. This is because most of the trumps are probably in your opponents' hands.

Likewise, if the dealer is your partner and he just turned down a red card, odds are that your opponents will have most of the trumps.

Since you're talking about taking the trick with the 9, then I'm assuming that you're the dealer. Again though, did you pick up a card here and this is what you had after the pickup or is this a second round call?

For example, let's say I'm the dealer and picked up the 9-hearts. I'd probably have discarded a diamond, since I'd be really trying to avoid being three-suited.

First trick, I'd take with the 9-trump and lead back the right. I'd then usually lead back the 10-spades to try to give the lead to my partner, but this really depends on what got played to the right. If one of your opponents played the Ace-Spades, then you don't want to lead the 10.

Rebel
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Joined: Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:35 pm

Post by Rebel » Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:36 pm

I would not lead your bower. . You may need your partners help. If he has trump, give him a chance to use it. The best scenario is to have 1st seat take your 2nd lead. Then a diamond lead on the 3rd trick would set you up for an end play.

irishwolf
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:22 am

To the hand Jh Kh 9h Kc 10s - suppose you are the dealer and win the first trick with 9h (it had to be a Diamond led). I find better results leading the Club or Spade. Preferably the 10s. I want eldest or my partner to win the trick. Now they have to lead back into my Jh Kh (I guard the Kh with the Jh).

However, it just may be if eldest is a good player to trust the trick to 3rd seat. If he wins the trick with an ace (AS) and has the KS I am caught in a squeeze. So I duck, this puts eldest in a pickle - does he trump with my partner behind him to over trump.

Suppose you do as suggested, and lead the Jh to the 2nd trick. If one of the opponents wins the trick with an ace and has Left, I am screwed!

Neither is fool proof - but I like guarding my Kh with the Jh. Lots of things can happen to help me win my point.

But now let's put a twist on this. Suppose I also had the As or Ac instead of the above. I now always lead my Jh, then the off suit Ace. One opponent now has to have three trumps (only a 9% odds of that) and he has to have a void in the ace suit (now the odds is down to 4% he has that combination).

That's my story and I am sticking to it!

Irishwolf.

RedDuke
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Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:37 pm

Irish,

What would be the odds though that your partner has either A-S or A-C? If you lead the right first, then you're still clearing out the trumps for him, right?

irishwolf
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:06 pm

Yes, you are clearing out trump to the 3 players who have but one trump. Now you are exposed to the player with the guarded left and the Ace to your lead. I like leading off suit, here you want eldest to trump if he is trigger happy or win it with an ace.

If he trumps (eldest), it makes his partner's ace worthless and he has to lead back into you while your partner can possibly win the trick. If your partner is void and has 1 trump it helps you. You are giving MORE opportunities to your partner to win a trick by not leading the JH to 2nd trick. It can back fire though and put you in a squeeze if Pone win the trick.

Below are the probabilities (consider it odds but odds is calculated different). Deal in chance as a percentage, it's easier.

Just bear with me:

Having the AS is 27% and same for AC when the cards are first deal looking at your hand and the upcard, (18 unknown cards). But now 3 of those 18 have been played so we are down but did all have Diamonds (3) to the trick and what was your discard (which had to be a diamond). That question impacts the answer.

I will assume you now have 4 known diamonds, 3 hearts, 1 spade & 1 club (9 total. So here are the unknown cards: 4 hearts, 1 diamond, 5 spades and 5 clubs, each pf 3 players holding 4 cards and 3 in the stock. 15 total unknown cards. Every card played, (known) change the calculations. It just coincidence that the 18 cards is the same as 15 cards with respect to the AC/AS calculations.

Here is your answer(s) based on 15 cards with assumption of 4 known diamonds to the Dealer (only the dealer knows the discard):

Partner (or each opponent) has the AS - 27%
Partner (or each opponent) has the AC - 27%
Partner has either ace is 42%
Partner has both AC and AS is 6%
Partner has neither AC nor AS is 52%
AS is buried in stock of 3 is 20% chance AND 27% my partner has it.

Those numbers (are not guesses - those are real calculations) also rounded and make (3 x 27 = 81% + 20 = 100% (off a little to rounding - 26.7%). Perhaps more than you want but gives a better answer.

I don't play by statistics alone, they are there in my memory bank, but I also go be sensing, tips and ques players give me for free. Sometimes I go against the statistics and go by what my sensing tells me. Those probabilities are calculations based on the Law of Large Numbers (many hands played - 400 to be 95% accurate, not in the short-run of one or two games.

In his habnd, also, remember that Eldest did not lead an Ace. More than likely eldest does not have an ace, and I can't calculate it - sensing is important. So is it because he does not have one. Or is he lurking with an Ace and a fist full of trump to counter-punch you after you lead the Right? Those considerations are not in these calculations. Some players will always lead an ace, others don't.

But at least it gives you a feel for your partner as to what he/she might have.

So does that help or just confuse?

Irishwolf

RedDuke
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Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:50 pm

Irish,

If eldest doesn't have an Ace though (which you point out is likely, unless he's holding something like three spades or three clubs), wouldn't there be a pretty high possibility that he'll play second hand low to your lead? In that case, unless your partner can trump in, third seat could very easily take the trick, in which case you might be in trouble.

irishwolf
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:49 pm

Depends! If he has a void and ONE trump you have to as 1st priority stop a March. If he had the Left or Ace of trump guarded, yes trust the trick to get behind the Marker.

It makes no sense not to trump if he has 3 of anything else.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:38 pm

Good thread! Agree with Rebel and Irishwolf that our next lead should be one of the non-trump cards.

RedDuke
Posts: 227
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:48 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:49 pm
Depends! If he has a void and ONE trump you have to as 1st priority stop a March. If he had the Left or Ace of trump guarded, yes trust the trick to get behind the Marker.

It makes no sense not to trump if he has 3 of anything else.
When is the time to play second hand low? Still trying to get my head around that one.

irishwolf
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:31 pm

First of all, I only use and in general terminology 2nd hand low should only be used on the First trick of a hand. After that (2nd, 3rd, etc tricks) the term of "trusting" the trick is more commonly used.

As to its use, it is mainly used by the team who made trump, not the defensive team. So in this context, use first round 2nd hand low when you can create a "void" when you are the maker at 2nd seat and Assisted the dealer. It does little good to go 2nd hand low when you have one trump and two doubleton off suits. So on first round, you assisted the dealer with Right & Ace and can create a void, Perfect time to do 2nd hand low on the first trick. Just so many variation but if you assist the Right bower and you have three small trumps, you should trump because you don't know if the dealer only has the Right. Many other example but I won't go into deal. I will say, 2nd Hand Low is an abused concept, used in places that it does not apply. Think carefully on using it when the Dealer makes trump - you might be fooling your partner as in general he wants you to get your trick and lead him trump.

Okay, now to the Hand above, this is on 2nd trick so "trusting" a trick is a better term to use than 2nd hand low (but I suppose you could use it). So when do you trust a trick - 1) when you have the Left guarded; 2) Do not use it when opponents have one trick in (like the dealer you in first) and you have only one trump and dealer leads non-Ace off suitr; 3) When you have ONE trick already won and you have the Ace or Left then trust the trick to get behind the Maker regardless of the seat; 4) same as 3 after the Right bower has been played, trust a trick to get behind the Maker (the strength); 5) On 2nd leads of the same suit, you have to evaluate to trump high or "trust". Too many situations to make a general statement on 5. or going any further with the concept.

However, it is better to review specific hands and situations to apply 2nd Hand Low or "Trusting" a trick. I hope that helps?

Irishwolf

RedDuke
Posts: 227
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:54 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:31 pm
First of all, I only use and in general terminology 2nd hand low should only be used on the First trick of a hand. After that (2nd, 3rd, etc tricks) the term of "trusting" the trick is more commonly used.

As to its use, it is mainly used by the team who made trump, not the defensive team. So in this context, use first round 2nd hand low when you can create a "void" when you are the maker at 2nd seat and Assisted the dealer. It does little good to go 2nd hand low when you have one trump and two doubleton off suits. So on first round, you assisted the dealer with Right & Ace and can create a void, Perfect time to do 2nd hand low on the first trick. Just so many variation but if you assist the Right bower and you have three small trumps, you should trump because you don't know if the dealer only has the Right. Many other example but I won't go into deal. I will say, 2nd Hand Low is an abused concept, used in places that it does not apply. Think carefully on using it when the Dealer makes trump - you might be fooling your partner as in general he wants you to get your trick and lead him trump.

Okay, now to the Hand above, this is on 2nd trick so "trusting" a trick is a better term to use than 2nd hand low (but I suppose you could use it). So when do you trust a trick - 1) when you have the Left guarded; 2) Do not use it when opponents have one trick in (like the dealer you in first) and you have only one trump and dealer leads non-Ace off suitr; 3) When you have ONE trick already won and you have the Ace or Left then trust the trick to get behind the Maker regardless of the seat; 4) same as 3 after the Right bower has been played, trust a trick to get behind the Maker (the strength); 5) On 2nd leads of the same suit, you have to evaluate to trump high or "trust". Too many situations to make a general statement on 5. or going any further with the concept.

However, it is better to review specific hands and situations to apply 2nd Hand Low or "Trusting" a trick. I hope that helps?

Irishwolf
So you use it if you have a guaranteed trick in your hand and only one guaranteed trick (the Right, or a guarded Left) and have first play after the maker? I know the general reason for doing it is to put the lead behind the maker with the hopes that you can overtrump him on the next or a later trick. I would think that it would be used by the defending team though with the hopes of euchring the maker?

Am I thinking of something else? Say you're in first seat (dealer is the maker). Dealer takes first trick with a trump and leads back an offsuit king, let's say the King of Diamonds. You're void in diamonds so you can either trump it or throw off a trash ten of clubs hoping that your partner can take it either with the Ace of Diamonds or with a trump, thus letting you keep the guaranteed trick in your hand hoping to use it later to euchre the maker. I thought this was second hand low.

irishwolf
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:18 am

Not giving enough information as to why you have a guaranteed trick (based on what)? But okay, assume you do have a guaranteed trick. Then, you could, I suppose, call that 2nd hand low, or "trusting" the trick to your partner.

But I see issues with it, based on how I have seen observed it. Suppose now you are in seat one, each have won 1 trick and now the dealer leads you for the 2nd time a same suit. Are you now going to call that 2nd Hand Low too? I would call it you "Duck" if you do not trump it. We might be splitting hairs here, lol.


"you keep the guaranteed trick in your hand hoping to use it later to euchre the maker. I thought this was second hand low."

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