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by irishwolf » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:38 pm
RAY,
That was helpful to clarify that the Dealer is actually N/S.
YES, IT Makes sense that Passing is now a negative EV. Howeer, I don't consider an EV = + .30 as MARGINAL. And passing a negative EV. Jump for JOY!
3) I also questioned whether this was a biddable hand, so I compared bidding this hand with passing it.
bid: N/S 5158 pts., E/W 3210 pts.
Thus (N = DEALER) LEADS LOW. NET = (5158 – 3210 = + 1948 / 6474 hands = EV = + .30 MARGINAL.
QUESTION: I have a question why are the scores for bidding per 2) : 418 / 4445 / 1611 (2 pts. [total net points = (LEAD LOW PTS = 836 + 4445 – 3222 = 2059 points] not the same as 3) bid: N/S 5158 pts., E/W 3210 pts?
Why do they differ?
The discussion of leading low vs high, a different discussion. Leading low or leading high makes no difference 30% of the time when the Dealer has 2 trumps 9C/KC.
JC/QC, JC/JS, JC/AC, JC/10C, // JS/QC, JS/AC, JS/10C, AC/QC, AC/10C / QC/10C AND ONLY 6 OF THOSE MIGHT S2 HAVE AND NOT ORDER. That's .60 X 30% = 18% So S2 can help with six of those 2 trump combos (18%) might not Order and can help if has JC 28%. Those are additive - 18% + 28% = 46% S2 can help. So what about the other 54%?
The other 52%, basically S4 on your own unless S2 has a doubleton better than the opponents, rare help I say.
So, when opponents have 2 each or one has 3 trumps is where a euchre is possible. I see that as 11% + (9% x 2) 18% about 29% euchre rate but I estimate will be less than this, mainly when S2 has the highest trump, JC. This is the all depends factor. Leading trump will ALWAYS help in this situation. So I am not surprised at your 24% euchre rate. In good agreement, I think.
Leading the KC: When S1 has one trump, 10C or QC, leading high is Best. But you never know when that might be. 9C & QC is 40% of the 5 unknown trumps. It gets complex and the advantage of leading the KC, I estimate ~5 to7%, - marginal, all things considered.
I wonder what your program might say? So do those 10,000 hands again 9C vs KC.
Anyway, this is why I favor leading KC. Most players I see, lead the 9C. Not bad but . . . Nothing works 100% but it helps when S1 has one low trump and S3 has two trumps and that is where you are focusing your attention. Small marginal advantages do matter, IMO. More review, it will not work when one opponent has one high trump and the other has like 10C/QC combo. You can't have it your way 100%, but take the best route. As stated, is when S1 has 10C or QC as a singleton and S3 has a doubleton JC or JS (JC buried) with either the 10C or QC.
But to each, his own!
IRISHWOLF