Unread post
by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Nov 01, 2021 2:42 am
S2 made a good 2nd round call imo and played the hand well. I'm not passing up any reverse next call in this spot when I block no suits. Not happening.
S4 should not be passing up R+1+0. That's only defensible if he blocks all suits. I am sympathetic to the idea of passing this marginal hand to bag a Next call. In theory this is one of the best hands to do it with imo. Why? Not just cuz S4 has 3 trump in Next but also becuz he has KdJd. I would not even consider bagging a Next call without a red bower in my hand, not just cuz that blocks another suit but also becuz that card acts like a blocker card lowering the probability S1 calls red to begin with. This reminds me of the idea of bluff 3 betting or 4 betting someone in No limit with Ax cuz this hand blocks the chances of running into AK/AA.
So I can see where someone is coming from when they bag this hand. You got 3 trump in Next and if S1 calls diamonds he could be in trouble too given you also have KdJd, and just by having the Jd in your hand you lower the probability S1 has a heart call. All that said, I still suspect this ploy is only worth it if S1 calls Next like a monkey, I.E. someone like me. But players like me are extremely rare. I mean lets face it, like 95-99% of the player pool doesn't even call Next. They simply play their cards in that spot. If they have a hand they call, if not they pass. And even in the Monday/Friday Night game many Next calls are still passed up. So yeah, I think S4 should just "keep it simple stupid" and make the standard R+1+0 call and hope for the best. If I'm in S1 bagging on Next might be best. And I stress the word "might". Even tho I call next more than anyone on the planet, I also jump the fence more than anyone on the planet. So who knows.
Ok Lets move on to the most egregious aspect of this hand (besides the dealer inexplicably not leading the Right on 3rd street): S1's very poor play. S1 choosing to Pass-Pass with his holding when he doesn't block reverse Next is unconscionable. Just terrible euchre play. S1 has two choices, call with 3 trump in the first round, lead the JS and hope for the best, or bag in the first round with the intention of calling Next with R+0+A in the 2nd round, leading the Right followed by the Ace. This is another scenario worth testing. Which way has a higher EV? My money is on the first round call being better than bagging and calling Next given how marginal that Next call is. One could and probably should run this test with an amateur dealer and an expert dealer. Either way I still suspect the first rd call will come out ahead. The most important aspect of this spot tho is S1 understanding that Pass-pass is not an option with this hand.