The old 2 guaranteed tricks trap...

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XaviRonaldo
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The old 2 guaranteed tricks trap...

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:19 am

I'm dealer down 1-0 and I turn up (Card_J-H)

I held though (Card_J-D) (Card_10-D) and one of the black jacks and one other of each black suit to go with it.

If I pick up I have both bauers but little else to go with it. If I pass I have every suit covered but have a weak hand if it comes back around because STD is in effect. Deciding I didn't want to have this happen I decided to count on my partner for 1. It backfired as they had absolute muck in hearts.

I don't know but playing the percentage plays very rarely seems to work out for me. I haven't been calculating it but I've tried being aggressive but I'm sure my successful call rate must be below 75%. I know wisdom would say to pick this up but I can't even remember the last time I was successful on a hand like this.



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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:44 pm

defense wins championships.... gotta play for the hold em to one point with possible outside euchre chance....pass.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:43 pm

Looking for help from your partner - for him to have no trump - 16% and no Ace of 3 is 35% and that will happen less that 5.5% of the time. However, you have to play those double Jacks with caution and patience.

And consider you said your success must be less than 75% but any success rate at 66% has a positive EV. And that the only thing you can do is stop a march if you Pass. 2 Tricks is a biddable hand, I AM NOT PASSING at most scores. Okay, you get euchred 15 - 20% (which is really too high for me), you make a point 80%. And if you have a partner that does not order with the Jack up.

All those reason you CANNOT PASS!

IRISH

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:00 pm

I'm fairly comfortable passing this hand. You have all suits blocked, and may be able to force out a weak next call if S1 has no suits blocked. You might be in trouble if you have an expert partner in S2 who will call a very marginal black hand here, but that's not likely to be an issue on whatever app you're playing on. I also wouldn't worry about the times where your opponents can call strong hands in black, more commonly they will be sitting on hearts and hoping you pick up. I'm not too bothered having to call here on STD, either. Diamonds is a decent call with the left bower gone, and you're still in a position where you can likely get 2 tricks, and need your partner to get one.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:39 am

So what you are saying as it is not clear at all is that you will score more points by PASSING? Or that there is a more positive EV by Passing that ordering" What is the EV if the dealer passes? Or are you just winging it?

The comments are loose and and unspecific. What does it mean that opponents will be sitting on the Dealer in hearts, 3 & 2 hearts or 2 & 2 hearts? What is the probability of each of those?

Very doubtful S1 will call next unless he does so with 1 diamond or 2 diamonds. Certainly having 3 is a rare hand in next.

The suit the opponents or your partner will call is Clubs or Spades, not diamonds. And more likely the suit with the only the Jack (Right) as their are 5 unknown in that suit. Opponents are not going to cross the suit unless one has three trumps so with one Jack out, it's coming back to the Dealer, STD. A euchre or a sweep is doubtful in black trump suit if called before it gets back to the Dealer.

And if STD, it back to the Dealer, you now have a weak hand less than 2 tricks in diamonds? And you still have two loser suits in black, the same as calling Hearts.

Exactly how is it better to Pass here, get specific as being comfortable in Passing says nothing about the EV of the two alternatives? NOT ONE POST OF YOURS HAVE INDICATED EV, EUCHRE RATES, SUCCESS RATES OR SPECIFIC STATISTIC PROBABILITIES with alternatives. If you have, I have not observed it, just Gut Probability or feeling comfortable with that HUMANS are terrible objective outcomes.

So now it's up to the author of the Post to decide the best option?

IRISH

Jspectre said, " I'm fairly comfortable passing this hand. You have all suits blocked, and may be able to force out a weak next call if S1 has no suits blocked. You might be in trouble if you have an expert partner in S2 who will call a very marginal black hand here, but that's not likely to be an issue on whatever app you're playing on. I also wouldn't worry about the times where your opponents can call strong hands in black, more commonly they will be sitting on hearts and hoping you pick up."

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:25 pm

It would really be helpful to exactly know the other cards.

With score being 0-1 this hand with having both red jacks is your strongest call and demands a call at this score.

Your looking to score points not be safe and protect against a possible euchre which could hurt your team. There are scenarios to pass and play as such. However this isn't one of them. Play and call it up here always with your two bauers.

Tbolt65
Edward

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:39 pm

Tbolt65 wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:25 pm
It would really be helpful to exactly know the other cards.

With score being 0-1 this hand with having both red jacks is your strongest call and demands a call at this score.

Your looking to score points not be safe and protect against a possible euchre which could hurt your team. There are scenarios to pass and play as such. However this isn't one of them. Play and call it up here always with your two bauers.

Tbolt65
Edward
It's important to consider that random partner's are more likely to call up a bower here if they have even just a couple of trump and an ace, either because they don't know any better or they don't trust their partner to pick it up. Maybe that's reading too much into it, but I would conclude that may already be a sign that my partner could potentially not be able to help.

I suppose then it depends on how likely the opponents are to try a desperate next call, and whether your hand is good enough to achieve a consistent euchre rate or if the opponents are more likely to steal points here than the original call itself. While you do have the right bower, and a small trump, there's still 4 trump remaining, and you have no aces in hand.

However, then it depends on if your partner in S2 actually has a decent black hand or if they would at least try to call on a marginal hand or if they're going to often leave you stranded here. The reason to pass here is mostly the hope that your partner has a decent black hand, while the original suit would have (potentially) been a euchre.

Lastly, I think you would have to calculate how much worse it is to try and make a point if you're forced to call diamonds here, as opposed to making a point with 2 bowers in hearts. You have a void in hearts, but seeing as hearts is in next, this may prove to not always be an easy trick to take, but I would be surprised if it was a drastically different outcome, though.

At the expert level this is obviously an easy call, but I don't know if the same can be said with random factors.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:49 pm

I have now been able to confirm if your order EV = + .16 to +.19 and if you pass the EV = -.19 to - .23. A swing (difference) ~45 points based on 150 hands, significantly different between ordering and passing.
The variability is due to leading one card versus another as you would expect.

And I 2nd the comments made by Tbolt but I might pass at my side 9 and opponents 6. Reason is it's better to hold them to one point and avoid any Possibility of a euchre. Then I can donate at 9 to 7 on their deal if needed.

IRISH

XaviRonaldo
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Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Fri Sep 24, 2021 6:41 am

LeftyK wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:44 pm
defense wins championships.... gotta play for the hold em to one point with possible outside euchre chance....pass.
The problem is that in my experience with STD in effect I tend to get stuck having to call on a poor hand.

XaviRonaldo
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Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:41 am

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Fri Sep 24, 2021 6:49 am

Tbolt65 wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:25 pm
It would really be helpful to exactly know the other cards.

With score being 0-1 this hand with having both red jacks is your strongest call and demands a call at this score.

Your looking to score points not be safe and protect against a possible euchre which could hurt your team. There are scenarios to pass and play as such. However this isn't one of them. Play and call it up here always with your two bauers.

Tbolt65
Edward
Exactly my thinking. I always try to be very aggressive early in a game trying to get a big lead. I try to only be cautious when the opponents are a euchre away.

I just seem to have very poor success with these types of hands. I often have games where my strong calls get euchred and my speculative ones come through. Euchre is weird. In a cool way

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