Old topic, but I want to talk about EZ's "power player" theory for a minute.

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jspectre
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Old topic, but I want to talk about EZ's "power player" theory for a minute.

Unread post by jspectre » Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:02 pm

I did participate briefly in this discussion at the time it was being had, but I don't think I really understood the ramifications of this book/theory. Now, for the most part I believe all the data to be accurate, and that his "aggressive" player archetype was modeled after what hands expert players would call trump on. However, one glaring flaw is that these computer players were not that sophisticated, and EZ states it was not possible to account for nuance or to allow the CPU players to make decisions such as when to play off and when to play trump, so these simulations will differ somewhat from how experts would have played the same hands.

None of this really matters, though, because the single most interesting thing about this groundbreaking euchre theory, is how one man could have gotten it all so horribly wrong. The data certainly shows that the power player is more successful than the aggressive player, by every metric, as he should be. He is a powerhouse on both offense and defense, generating significantly more points earned than the aggressive player, who is euchred in over 15% of their attempts, compared to the 1% euchre rate of the power player. Except, these conclusions are completely worthless, and it's not because the data is "wrong", it's because EZ makes an unthinkable error in judgement.

Now, I can't begin to fathom how someone like EZ would determine that there is no cost to passing in euchre, but miraculously, that is exactly what he does. He never accounts for whether passing could result in a negative net outcome, he just ignores this reality altogether! How is it even possible for someone to dedicate themselves to extensive research and statistical analysis, only to completely miss or ignore something so obvious and fundamental!? The level of disillusionment is astonishing, you can sense in the book how excited EZ is over his discovery that modern euchre theory is all wrong, and that the data proves his "power player" is the definitive expert.

I simply can't wrap my head around this phenomenon, it's so bizarrely fascinating! What are your thoughts?



Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:47 pm

He has 5 books. I've only read one.

With that said I find his power player lacking. One of which you mention above. He also erroneously paints the euchre playing world as being ultra aggressive players which just is not the case. His power euchre players are passive and its in my expert opinion that playing too passive and at calling rates that he highlights is way too low. Plus what I find lacking is the interplay or strategy of playing hands. He stated he does not go into the nuances of the game because he does not want to complicate things. This is where he utterly fails and his overall assessments is flawed on the grounds that passing on information that is too complex to comprehend and to ascertain.

He is also pretty condescending to other authors. His lack of understanding or willingness to make known of these shows the clouded and obviously bias he has when he thinks that math, and stats alone can carry the the day.


Ive said before there are some nuggets in there for the discerning euchre player. But the entertainment value far and whole supersede everything else.

Tbolt65
Edward

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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:40 pm

"when he thinks that math, and stats alone can carry the the day." - Wait, I thought this is how Wes plays :)

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:14 pm

LeftyK wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:40 pm
"when he thinks that math, and stats alone can carry the the day." - Wait, I thought this is how Wes plays :)
Math is the ultimate answer to any card decision whether we're talking about euchre, poker, etc. However, in many situations there will be room for debate because rational people can disagree on the assumptions underpinning the math.

Ideally every decision we make in euchre that can't be proven logically should be tested statistically. I have not reached that ideal and doubt I ever will. That's a lot of onerous work for a game one cannot make money at.

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:47 am

The issue really has nothing to do with math and stats. The raw data he collected is useful information, but at the same time it's completely worthless when it comes to proving his theory. The data only supports EZ's conclusion if there is no cost to passing in euchre, because EZ never factors this into his theory at any point. The data, no matter how accurate, can never support his conclusions, because the entire theory/analysis is built on a false premise.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:20 am

jspectre wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:47 am
The issue really has nothing to do with math and stats. The raw data he collected is useful information, but at the same time it's completely worthless when it comes to proving his theory. The data only supports EZ's conclusion if there is no cost to passing in euchre, because EZ never factors this into his theory at any point. The data, no matter how accurate, can never support his conclusions, because the entire theory/analysis is built on a false premise.
Yes it is mind-boggling. How can someone be intelligent enough to create that book and yet dumb enough to overlook the most important concept in euchre: passing is costly.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:35 pm

How can one say, " The issue really has nothing to do with math and stats. "

Maybe that is the MARK OF THE BEAST?

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:26 pm

Guy's , guys , guy's don't get lost in the semantics.

EZ doesn't account for the interplay, he undervalues a lot of things in the game of euchre and uses his various model's to justify play and while that may be ok for the beginner's it is totally and wholey inadequate for advance playing.

Tbolt65
Edward

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:10 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:20 am
jspectre wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:47 am
The issue really has nothing to do with math and stats. The raw data he collected is useful information, but at the same time it's completely worthless when it comes to proving his theory. The data only supports EZ's conclusion if there is no cost to passing in euchre, because EZ never factors this into his theory at any point. The data, no matter how accurate, can never support his conclusions, because the entire theory/analysis is built on a false premise.
Yes it is mind-boggling. How can someone be intelligent enough to create that book and yet dumb enough to overlook the most important concept in euchre: passing is costly.
That's precisely my point, unless he's trying to be deceptive it makes no sense, but it also makes no sense that you could ever convince expert players that there's no cost to passing, and everything can be based on simple euchre rates and call percentages. At any rate, it's all quite fascinating, but I wish we could get answers from the man himself. lol

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:49 pm

He has no desire to talk openly about it since in his mind he's solved it already(euchre that is). He only came here to try to promote and sell his book which was a set up from the start.

Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:31 pm

I think more than this, "He has no desire to talk openly about it since in his mind he's solved it already(euchre that is)."

He is MAINLY afraid to DEFEND it.

IRISH

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