LEADING TRUMP WHEN YOUR SIDE DONATES

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irishwolf
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LEADING TRUMP WHEN YOUR SIDE DONATES

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:34 pm

From Friday Nite EUchre:

Who, this site or what expert, decided leading trump when you Donate is the best strategy to possibly winning a point when Donating? Where is the Data that backs up that Strategy?

Okay, you are in first seat, score is 9 to 6/7 and you DONATE. In your hand you have one low trump and an off suit Ace. WHO decided it is better to lead your low trump instead of your Ace?

So let's do a Poll"

1) Lead your one trump, you are donating so who cares, mark 2 for Opponents?

2) This website, OE, recommends leading trump as the best strategy? (Is that true?)

3) I have no clue which is best in leading?

4) My Partner might be loaded and a lead is what S3 wants?

5) My ace will win a trick if the Dealer has that suit, so save the Ace?

Does the old saying A BLIND HOG FINDS AN ACORN ONCE IN A WHILE, apply when it happens?

IRISHWOLF



jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:06 pm

Irish, as usual it looks like you're mixing up some things. I never had an ace in this hand, I led trump here because I had no voids or ace, and I only had a single low trump. A trump lead can easily be beneficial to you in this spot if you're holding any strength in trump, while I have very little to offer here outside of a trump lead. Also, we can't just ignore that you tried to double lead trump, and that's ultimately what ruined any chance of scoring a point, as you lost that trick to the dealer's ace.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:32 pm

Lol, to your statements:

1) PROVIDE PROOF - leading the low trump would help? Your statement: A trump lead can easily be beneficial to you in this spot if you're holding any strength in trump, while I have very little to offer here outside of a trump lead." Exactly how that would help?

2)( I sure did take the first trick with the JC and lead back trump. WHY? Because I had two aces and thought you had something with your foolish lead. You said, "Also, we can't just ignore that you tried to double lead trump, and that's ultimately what ruined any chance of scoring a point, as you lost that trick to the dealer's ace."
And even if you did not have trump, I want my aces to work! That is the reason. But you had no idea that leading trump was good or not. You said, Dlan, OE said it was a good idea. But STAND ON YOUR OWN TWO FEET - WHERE IS YOUR DATA.

Besides, it a bigger issue than just YOU. I have witnessed it by others leading trump when donating from first seat.

So provide you data or just say, I HAVE NO IDEA!

IRISH

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:07 pm

jspectre, that hand was Hand 11 9:10 true you did not have an ACE to lead but the Poll was for a strategy in general on LEADING TRUMP!

Any other lead than you leading your QS (9D KD TC JH) would have resulted in scoring a point. When you lead trump it is to the DEALER's advantage. Only if the dealer has the card he picks up and partner has one or none and S3 has a more powerful hand is a lead of trump advisable, AND YOU DO NOT KNOW THAT!

Do you not get it? :lol:

BUT give your Data, please to support your cause!

IRISHWOLF

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:13 pm

So if you want to critique each other, did you know you unguarded your JH QD (left when S2 assisted and the dealer had the 9D/KD but had to follow suit. But you fooled S2 because he did not think you would unguard your left. I new Ploy I suppose! So lucky on that one!
You want more details?

IRISH

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:07 pm

We have a database of 100 donations. What is the best lead?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:55 pm

What is the best lead? What is your OE recommendations?

IRISH

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:50 pm

Irish, one trump lead is more than sufficient to play your aces, not to mention that we were on 9, so no march is required in this spot, and if that wasn't enough, S2 was void of trump, so you're taking away a potential 2 trump by leading again, while only taking away one potential trump from the opponent. All evidence seems to point to you misplaying this hand, regardless of my leading trump on a donation.

If your example about the ace was not supposed to reflect the hand that was played, then perhaps that was my mistake, but as you have a history of getting the facts wrong in these types of situations, I felt it was reasonable to conclude that you simply did it yet again. As for "proving" it, my play seems logically sound from my perspective, I believe I told YOU to prove it, did I not?

I'm well aware what happened on the play with the guarded left, but considering I also held an off suit ace in my hand, I did not feel the same urgency to either play off or block the dealer out with my left, and so I gambled that I could take the trick with a low trump, and that this gave me the best chances for a euchre. This caused the maker to incorrectly conclude that I would not unguard my left in that position.

Oh, and for the record, I rarely even lead trump on a donation, but it was correct to do so here.
Last edited by jspectre on Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:50 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:07 pm
Any other lead than you leading your QS (9D KD TC JH) would have resulted in scoring a point. When you lead trump it is to the DEALER's advantage. Only if the dealer has the card he picks up and partner has one or none and S3 has a more powerful hand is a lead of trump advisable, AND YOU DO NOT KNOW THAT!

Do you not get it? :lol:

BUT give your Data, please to support your cause!

IRISHWOLF
I feel the need to specifically reply to this comment, even though I covered all your posts in my reply, because there's just so much misinformation here. My trump lead did not deny us a point, you incorrectly leading trump back, did. If we needed a march here, then you could argue that leading trump back was correct, and that you were tricked into thinking this wasn't a donation, except you can't do that.

Second was void of trump from the first lead, and the score was 9-6, so you led back trump a 2nd time, knowing one opponent is already void, and that we only need to make one point on this hand. Any way you slice it, your play was objectively wrong, given the circumstances. You did NOT need to lead trump again for us to secure 3 tricks, and there was no reasonable justification for doing so.

Now, as for whether a trump lead benefits only the dealer, that's patently untrue. There's many situations where you should lead trump against the dealer or the maker, it is only to their advantage if they have the most control over the hand after the lead is finished. I can think of quite a few scenarios both for and against a trump lead on a donation, it's not like you need some perfect setup for this to be correct.

The worst case scenario is where 2nd is void, and then you are only hurting you and your partner, but I would wager this is an unlikely scenario on a true donation, and is more likely to occur when you simply try to lead trump with an ace/left set. I suspect you would need at least one, if not two trump to be buried, and that's exactly what happened in our scenario, two trump were buried.

However, even with this trump lead being the worst case scenario for a trump lead, the hand was still perfectly winnable, and was only lost due to an incorrect follow-up from S3, meaning that the hand was winnable by leading or not leading trump, while there are objectively existing scenarios where a trump lead may have been the only way to secure a point, such as taking out a single large trump from S2.

Hell, I'm not even trying to argue that a trump lead is almost always correct on a donation, I know that would require further evidence, but the idea that you think a trump lead can't be correct on a donation where you simply have a garbage hand or may have no reasonable way to help with that single small trump, is simply foolish. You're flat out ignoring the advantages of leading trump to trick 1, and you're making absurd claims to imply this is always to the dealer's advantage.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:14 pm

The post was in general about lead trump when donating. Looks like paranoia to me!
And more specifically tho, an observation when one has an Ace which almost seems standard play this website. For those who do it, you included, I would like to see the supporting data for this ploy. Yes, when S3 orders the dealer, a trump lead is standard. But the reason for Donating in the first place is because S1 has a bad hand, score and situation. So what justifies that? Your lead Friday just triggered in my mind, "here goes another who just drank the Kool Aid".

It's not up to me to 'prove' your lousy play.

"Oh, and for the record, I rarely ever lead trump on a donation, this hand simply fit the criteria for it."

So again, what is it that this hand simply fit the criteria? Justify your lead. How did this hand fit your strategy. What other hands fit that (your) criteria. Based on what?

As to unguarding your left when you have an off suit Ace? You think that is justified? So you always unguard your Left when you have an Ace? Seriously I know of no Good euchre player that would do it until a trick is won. And the card to play is the Left because S2 assisted and most likely had the Right. You were so lucky the dealer had a club because he had the KD with a low trump that you would have lost both your JH & QD.
However, you are totally off your rocker as you failed to mention that your off suit was a triplet headed by Ace AS JS 9S (your hand JH QD AS JS 9S). LOL, your are less that Honest when you make ridiculous comments that hide the truth, IMO. The play is, create a void and let it ride!

If you make your position with clarity, there would be less confusion. Just like this series of posts - there is no CLARITY as to your play or position on either of the two situations. You are wasting my time!

So you now have two issues that is not sound Euchre strategy, IMO!

IRISH

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:52 pm

Irish, it is most certainly up to you to prove it, as you are the one deeming it to be a lousy play, while common sense dictates that it is most likely to be the correct play. If you think the odds of leading trump in that scenario is going to cause more failed point attempts than not leading, then I would call you crazy, that's not a logically sound conclusion. All I need is to draw out one better trump from S2 than I currently posses in my hand, and I'm very likely to have made the best play possible in this situation. I welcome you to challenge that I'm wrong, but as it stands, it looks like you're on the wrong side of the fence here.

As for the unguarded left, yes I do think it's justifiable to unguard it occasionally if you also have a good chance of stopping a march in your hand. If you think the dealer almost has a sure loner just about every time, whos' the one that's paranoid now? Why should I always play safe here, when trumping low is likely to increase my chances of scoring a euchre, and I may very well still be able to stop a march anyway? Unless you led a completely dead suit to me, there was a reasonable chance that the dealer still had to follow, given that it was a green suit, and I was void in it. Oh, and I don't trust your recollection of the hand, at all, so I'm ignoring that.

Yes, if the dealer could have trumped me, and led back I could have lost my left, and the maker may have also gotten stuck with the suit of my ace as well. At the very least, even if this play can be demonstrably proven to be incorrect or to backfire more often than it works, I would still say that a little unpredictability can be a valuable asset when playing against other experts, for the same reason that I don't agree with your narrow minded concept of never bagging as the dealer with minimal hands, knowing that if S1 doesn't have all suits blocked or a strong enough hand to cross with, that they may very likely call next.

As for my position, I don't know what I need to be clearer about, exactly. I think you're objectively wrong, both that the trump lead is incorrect, and that you are not the one who ultimately ruined any chance for us to make a point with your poor choice to lead trump back, given all other known factors. I think you're also absurd to imply that I should show YOU evidence that it's wrong, when you're the one declaring a trump lead is incorrect on a donation, no matter what the case is. How would the burden of proof not be on the accuser, in this situation?

Oh, and as for the criteria of the hand, I don't need to give you specifics, there's certainly quite a few combinations. The only real point that matters here is that you have a single trump, and your hand dictates that leading trump is likely the best chance you have to make a point, because it is unlikely whether you can reasonably help with just that trump, likely because it's a Q or lower. Logic dictates that you're better off stripping a potentially more valuable trump from S2, and that it's quite unlikely a trump lead will be worse in the scenario than not leading trump.

So, feel free to challenge to that, but as it stands, it would appear you are the one wasting my time.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:37 pm

You said justifiable , occasionally (fixed your spelling, use spell check)????
S2 ordered and did not have a Spade. In Euchre, it is a statistical game, either it is a good tactic or it is not unguarding the left before a trick is won. You having 3 spades, what is the statistical probability that AS of yours will get trumped, seriously (dealer has 2, and S2 has 1). Pretty low don't you think?

Your dodging the (2) issues, like a politician. This forum is about how to improve your play, not for avoiding HOW BEST, statistically, to play. You failed and that actually is a historical trend you have. Because you are lazy and do not want to do the dedicated analysis to see what is the best move, and that is your trade mark. You add nothing of value to the conversation or most analysis that I am aware of in your posts. Have you ever done a statistical analysis? What a shame, spell out your criteria, or occasionally it's okay, etc. etc. . Say something of Value!

Last conversation with you because you are all nonsense!

IRISH

"As for the unguarded left, yes I do think it's justifiable to unguard (dead wrong there) it occasionally if you also have a good chance of stopping a march in your hand. If you think the dealer almost has a sure loner just about every time, whos' the one that's paranoid now? Why should I always play safe here, when trumping low is likely to increase my chances of scoring a euchre, and I may very well still be able to stop a march anyway? Unless you led a completely dead suit to me, there was a reasonable chance that the dealer still had to follow,..."

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:47 pm

Irish, I never had 3 spades, it was not a tripleton ace, I'm not going to have a debate with you about a hand you don't even remember correctly. Now, you appear to be grasping at straws, as you are trying to make a single unconventional play into some sort of evidence to discredit me, all while you continue to ignore my claims that your trump lead was objectively incorrect, given all other relevant factors. You have not once addressed the fact that you led trump back on 9 points, to S2 being void of trump, that's simply a bad play any way you look at it, objectively speaking. I'll gladly admit I did not account for all of these circumstances, but the circumstances remain unchanged.

How aptly ignorant of you to call me lazy, and yet this situation does not require the burden of proof to be on my shoulders. It's almost as if you seem to think you are some grand arbiter of euchre, and that your assertions are simply the correct one's, while any assertions you disagree with must be proven correct. I hate to dispel you of that notion, but seeing as you are the one trying to make a claim here that a trump lead is always wrong while donating, then I would say it's pretty clear that you are also the one who must prove that I am wrong. You don't get to say that I'm wrong, and then demand for me to disprove you, that's completely asinine.

Don't reply to me, you rarely contribute anything of value, and that's if you aren't confused to begin with.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:47 pm

One thing I am not is a LIAR but how is that you do not remember?

"Irish, I never had 3 spades, it was not a tripleton ace, I'm not going to have a debate with you about a hand you don't even remember correctly."

YOUR HAND #3 AT 9:14 AS JS 9S JH QD you unguarded your Left on the 1st trick. Then led AS and Ed at S2 was void, made a error and sloughed a heart. You then proceeded to lead JS. S4 trumped with KD and lead the TD but S2 then played the AD and you over trumped, then led your 9S.

Those are the Facts.

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:56 pm

Oh Irish, it isn't a question of you being a liar, it's the fact that you seem to be perpetually confused. :lol:

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:50 pm

I have decided your posts strikes at my integrity and questions the "truth". So on the hand I say your had JH QD AS JS 9S.

If that is not the hand where you unguarded your left and had a AS triplet, then clarify what hand you you say you had? And what was played by you and what was led on trick 3?

Don't run, don't distort, don't hide, no politicking. Just the TRUTH, it will set you free!

I wait your answer.

IRISH

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:14 pm

Irish, unless you show me a replay of that hand, I cannot trust what you are saying, as you have frequently both misunderstood what I have said before in comments, and you have also falsely remembered how a hand was played out, on more than one occasion. If it was a triplet ace then I suppose taking a gamble might have been asking for too much, but I also don't believe I would have tried this with a triple, so without proof, I don't believe you, and this is hardly important anyway, this isn't even the hand that was being discussed in the first place!

The real issue, the one you keep avoiding, is that you simply played the donation hand wrong, and you have absolutely no excuse for it. You're crying about the trump lead being the reason we didn't make a point, and you are simply WRONG. We had 9 points, seat 2 was void of trump, and you led back trump to me. There is no possible scenario where you made the correct play, all you did was get us euchred on a point that we would have otherwise made. You also refuse to accept that the burden of proof is yours, and yours alone, either prove it's a bad lead or just shut up.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:46 am

Yes, it started out about the Donate but when you LIED and tried to stick me with your falsehoods, that is where I draw the line. I will NEVER run from the TRUTH. You have called my integrity into question and that is why we are going to talk about TRUTH AND LYING.

You Lied was about the Unguarding your Left and what you had, lying and denying that you had a AS trip that you indicated you would Never unguard your left and quoting you:
"I never had 3 spades, it was not a tripleton ace,. . . Your words jspectre.

Then what did you have? That is the question. Answer the question, SILENCE is lying deeper about this issue.

I gave you your hand and I know you know your hand. Again, you had JH QD AS JS 9S. I already gave you what you played for each trick, re-read it.

If you did not have 3 spades what possibly could have had for the 5th card which I say was the 9S.

Just more lies and deception from your email tonight. It is not about trusting me because it is YOU that uses deception when you do not want to face the truth. It your credibility. Just tell the truth and we will move on.

You should remember that two others also witnessed you play with you AS triplet that you said you NEVER had!

One of the things to confirm your lying is liars use of diversion tactics that liars use to conceal the truth for example: like occasionally, it fit the criteria ... Generalizations that just confuse the TRUTH.

Even a tiny bit of dishonesty is dishonorable when it's used for selfish and cowardly reasons.

Hard truths can be dealt with, triumphed over, but lies will destroy your soul.

When truth is replaced by avoiding facts and silence, the silence is a lie.

If I am lying let the Lord in Heaven, strike me down!

IRISH

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:18 am

So, you're just literally not going to comment on the fact that you played the donation hand objectively wrong, despite the fact that you tried to blame my trump lead for the euchre? I can't even begin to comprehend what the hell you're rambling about, your confusion seems to know no bounds. You continue to misunderstand or misinterpret comment after comment. I am not claiming you to be a liar or someone of low integrity, I am merely stating that you are someone who cannot be trusted to accurately recall or interpret information, as you have demonstrated to me multiple times in the past. Whether or not you are correct this particular time is anyone's guess as far as I'm concerned!

Whatever point you think that you're making here is nonexistent. That hand is completely irrelevant to the original discussion. I can only assume that you think you have caught me in some sort of willful deception, and that this somehow discredits my original argument, but as you can't be trusted to actually know what cards I had during that hand, this is all meaningless. You can call me a liar until you're blue in the face, it will not change the fact that I vehemently refuse to trust you, and therefore nothing you say to me regarding that hand has any weight or bearing. Admittedly, I do not recall with absolute certainty the contents of my hand, but I'm sure as hell not going to trust your recollection of the events, now am I!?

From where I'm sitting it just looks like you're trying to distract me from the original discussion, your failure to address why your trump lead was objectively wrong, and your arrogant insistence that you are the one who is owed proof in this matter, despite the fact that you are the one who is challenging my assertion, and therefore should be the one to provide proof of their claim. Now, I have tolerated your eccentricities for far too long as it is, I will absolutely not reply to any further nonsense about some irrelevant hand that you don't even have proof of. If your reply is not to address the things I have discussed in the last paragraph, and the last paragraph alone, then I suggest you keep it to yourself, otherwise you will just be howling into the wind!

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:52 am

JSPECTRE: The Lying and distraction is on you. Of course you do not want to reply, go silent because you are a LIAR.

This is about PRINCIPLE(S);

1) You lied and want to distort by laying blame on someone else (me). To discredit my Integrity. That is the first principle and I am not going to allow that. That is what pissed me off more than just the fact that you held 3 Spades. Because that is my Integrity.

2) Just a plain and outright lying. It not about you not remembering or just distorting the facts.

So what does a liar do. You go silent on the real issue, throw a lot of B.S. That is what liars do.

And here is why that you are lying which is so obvious.

On the First trick you Unguard your Left and trump with the QD.

Second, you now lead with AS and dealer had the KS, I slough the QH and S2 who assisted plays the 9H.

Now you lead the JS . . . You hold the JH.

So what could your 5th card be? You said you would NEVER have AS triplet and unguard your Left. You know S2 & S3 does not have a spade and the Dealer just played the KS.
If it were a Heart, you would lead the heart to S2 slough not put the Maker behind your partner (S2) and lead the JS. Only an idiot would hold a heart and lead another spade (JS). And if you held a heart your would lead it and the dealer had the AH and S2 had another heart (10HI).

Obviously, you were void in clubs and all the trump suit diamonds are accounted for (S2 - JD/AD; S3 - 9D; S4 KD/10D and you had the JH/QD).

That then only leaves you with 3 Spades AS, JS & 9S.

And you want to pedal falsehoods about such a little thing.
But it is Principle! I will not allow you to distort and put your blame on me.

This little miss truth is about Principle. It is about your Character and Integrity. Maybe it all about you, lying to yourself and Lie until even you believe it. Telling one lie almost then requires another, and they will be caught inside of their own web. When you lie and are caught, you can NEVER be believed in the future. I THINK YOU HAVE BEEN DOWN THIS ROAD OF LIES AND LYING BEFORE. It's difficult to BE honest about this when you continue lying to yourself and distort. Just tell the Truth.

Things come apart so easily when they have been held together with lies. - Dorothy Allison

As we use to say when I was a child, LIAR LIAR PANTS ON FIRE!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now then, if you want to get back to the original Post about Donating, then provide that "Criteria" you talking about so we can discuss it and why Donating by leading trump is poor Strategy by the 1st seat Donator!

I know you want the answer but when you give your "Criteria", as you said leading trump fit your Criteria. What was that Criteria?
I am betting you will go SILENT on that one too! But it is about Learning and you cannot learn unless you are honest with yourself expose your Strategy. You might even have to re-learn to get the right Strategy. No disclosure, no Learning!

IRISHWOLF

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:15 pm

In my expert opinion. I generally do not lead trump in a lot of scenarios when I donate. With that said there are times I do lead trump when I donate. I lead trump when donating on situations where I'm 4 suited. With a low trump like a 9 , 10 or possibly queen of trump. All other times I don't lead trump in said donating scenarios.


Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:38 pm

Ed said, "I lead trump when donating on situations where I'm 4 suited. With a low trump like a 9 , 10 or possibly queen of trump. All other times I don't lead trump in said donating scenarios"

But that does not answer the question of the value of leading trump vs not leading trump under those conditions?

In those situations you do lead trump, what is the value? Is helping your side or the opponents? If it is of no value, why do it?

IRISH

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:29 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:38 pm
Ed said, "I lead trump when donating on situations where I'm 4 suited. With a low trump like a 9 , 10 or possibly queen of trump. All other times I don't lead trump in said donating scenarios"

But that does not answer the question of the value of leading trump vs not leading trump under those conditions?

In those situations you do lead trump, what is the value? Is helping your side or the opponents? If it is of no value, why do it?

IRISH


In both scenarios I do it to benefit our team at a chance of possibly making a point on a donate. Whether that be not leading trump or leading trump.


Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:40 am

BACK TO THIS TOPIC OF LEADING TRUMP - DONATING

I said, Who, this site or what expert, decided leading trump when you Donate is the best strategy to possibly winning a point when Donating? Where is the Data that backs up that Strategy?

Okay, you are in first seat, score is 9 to 6/7 and you DONATE. In your hand you have one low trump and an off suit Ace. WHO decided it is better to lead your low trump instead of your Ace?

So let's do a Poll" - we have no results!
So each of us is left to our own opinions about what is best. Or should we just be satisfied that at the score 9 to 6, I am donating and will be satisfied to donate 2 points to the opponents because it is my deal next. I have a 65 to 70% chance of winning the game next hand?

Sure the above is true but personally, I am not satisfied unless I try my best with a five card strategy and could score a point. But folks, this is not about a five card strategy, it's about a 10 card strategy. The five cards I have and the five cards my partner has. And it deals as much with what my partner has that justifies what to lead.

There were a 173 views of this topic, only one real comment about to lead trump or not. Does it help here? No not really much to grab on to.

And there appears to be not a great deal of interest, I suppose.
Or is it because viewers really don't know?

I think the latter is closer to the truth. If you do not know where you are going, any road will do. We need to sort it out, as best we can!

We are faced with two truisms:
Don’t lead trump on defense vs S3 ordered – I must lead trump.
We have two opposing strategies. All depends on your assumptions.

I contend, either could be truth.
However, neither is REALITY here because Eldest removed that decision-making for the hand.

And if S1 has only one trump what is the best strategy?
Is there a statistical answer to help us wade through the muck?

Let's proceed:
On the surface, Eldest is playing defense on offense. That same strategy is sometimes done as Dealer to protect the score and in actuality this is the same sort of situation except that Eldest has the lead and in the other situation, the Dealer is on the receiving end and what to lead is removed from him.

Logically speaking it appears that leading, statistically speaking, Pone, will not have strong enough hand to win three tricks that justifies a lead of trump. Why, because we know from statistical data, and experience, that S3 has to have close to 3.0 tricks ordering the upcard. And with one trump to S1 and the upcard, there are five unknown cards, statistically to hold any three of the five is about 9% chance.

What is interesting is that if you look at the DONATE SPREAD SHEET (FROM OE - DLAN), column "O" summary data if S1 & S2 passed it indicates that 10% of the time Pone would/might order the upcard. That is right in line with my statement of holding three of five trumps. 10% is probably a little high as it has to be 3 of the significant high cards depending on what the upcard is. My data and the OE summary data is in agreement. And that spread sheet on "old data" is invaluable. (Should keep going though on collecting another 100 donate hands.)

So just logic says, there is about a 90% chance that won't happen. Even then, he can;t just have any three of the five unknown, (lets assume QC upcard, S1 has 9C) It needs to be JC KC QC with left unguarded or buried. That now cuts the statistical chance to about half.

That alone suggests leading TRUMP, the 9C, to the first trick with a hand such as 9C AD 10S QS 10H as an example is not a good strategy.

FEEL FREE TO CHALLENGE ME ON ANY OF THE ABOVE!

Dlan, says, we have 100 donates, what does that data look like?

Do we have other data that would help us, statistically?

What if the Jack is up, does that make a difference? The Jack up seems to be the real danger zone when most donates are made at any score?

I will let this information sink in first, then come back to answer these questions in further posts.

IRISHWOLF
Last edited by irishwolf on Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:38 pm

This is Part II to our discussion on the justification for leading trump when Donating. This part is review of the 100 donations kept by OE. I reviewed all 100 hands, and replayed them for myself.

The spread sheet was updated and summarized at the bottom, OE, Dlan's work.

Look at Column "M" as it has when a point is scored by S1/S3. However, I must say it needs to be corrected as three hands are incorrect (13, 60 & 89) as a point was not scored for S1/S3. The spread sheet has 11, but really it only 8 of 100.

Of the 8, 2 (# 11 & 45) trump was not led. Then we have two where (#2 & 21) it made no difference whether trump was led or not. So those four have to subtracted because we are evaluating is it correct to lead trump when donating to justify leading trump when it does makes a difference.

Then on #86, Pone at S3 donated, not S1 and a point was scored because s1 had Left guarded with AD/KD doubleton that S2 had 9D/10D and had to follow suit. The dealer only had the JC, right bower. S2 had two trumps. More about this type of situation later. Bottom line is that this was a strong hand and because S3 donated, I am subtracting that from the justification for leading trump.

So we are now down to from 8 to 3 situations of the 100 donates that support leading trump, 3, 16 & 24.

Let’s discuss these three hands of leading trump:

On #3, JD up, and is the dealer’s only trump (16% prob) and S2 only has the Left (28% x 16% = 4.5% probability is will occur). S3 had two trumps and S1 had doubleton AC and so did S3. A rather unusual and rare occurrence as S2/S4 had the other two off suit aces. Leading trump in this unusual sitation will result in a euchre. A point was scored because 10D had to be led and it was. Does that support and justify leading trump, yes about 2% of the time.

On #16, QD upcard, a point is scored because S2 only has the JD and dealer has the JH with the upcard. Trump is led and this hand required S3 to have three trump, AD KD 9D and S1 has AC/KC doubleton to S3 lead . Having three trumps about 9% with a doubleton with S1 having one trump with Ace to his doubleton. This type of hand is possible but rare. The trumps, voids and aces have to play out with precision for this one to score a point.

On # 24, JH upcard, a point was scored only because the Dealer played the hand incorrectly The dealer had the JH/AH and S2 had JD. Trump was led and the dealer stole the trick and lead back the AH when he did not have an ace in reserve. You might question that statement. The proof is that there are 15 unknown cards before the Dealer plays on trick one with three (3) unknown of the 15 being the off suit aces in his hand of 4 remaining cards. The chance that S2 has NO ACES is 16%, and 84% chance he has one or more.
His partner had the AS which all had to follow suit. So basically this one must be discounted as one should not develop a strategy based on incorrectly played hands.

We are now down to two of the 100 donates where leading trump results in a point for the donating team.

Does this justify leading trump? And the question you should be asking yourself, is how do you know when you should lead trump because the specific cards meet the criteria that will lead to scoring a point?

Even though we have 100 donates, some S3 donated and a number of times trump was not led. Thish accounts for about half of the 100 donates. So this then still gives us 2 times of about 50 donates for a 4% justification for leading trump. 50 hands is not quite sufficient for statistical significance in my book. But the statistical calculations also suggest the same or similar results. It is certainly a trend leaning to JUST DON’T DO IT!

I will posting more on this topic from my hands I tested.

IRISHWOLF

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:00 am

I don't see how using old data on random donation hands is sufficient here, you need to test using a specific sample, such as a 4 suited hand with a low trump and an ace or one without even an ace, such as the one I had and led trump with in the OE game. All that matters is whether you score more points with a trump lead or without it, it's a moot point if neither approach will score. I am not worried about a non-ace hand, personally, but it would be interesting to know if leading trump is still best when you have an ace. I may look into it further, and I have done plenty of other analysis already, for the record.

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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:05 am

So you don't think the OE spreadsheet (old data) is of any use. I totally disagree as those are real hands by real players. Funny, that you also seem to discount math and statistics. If you read my last two posts on this would understand which is better.
You need to do your own testing, which I doubt, by your comments have ever done.

We still looking for your "criteria" when you lead trump? You were and are silent on it because you don't know and shooting from the hip or you would clearly and plainly explain your reasoning.

I can tell right now, fact, leading trump on a donate is bad strategy and will score less points that not leading trump. I have already tested it.

If you have nothing to contribute, then the old sayings applies, "if you can't run with the big dogs, stay under the porch". :lol:


" I don't see how using old data on random donation hands is sufficient here "

IRISHWOLF

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:57 pm

Considering you only tested completely random donation hands, then all you have done is prove that it isn't correct to lead trump on every donation, which was already obvious. So, I'm having trouble seeing how this proves it's bad to lead trump on specific donation hands, such at the one that actually took place at the OE table, and the one you listed here in the thread. Granted, I can see how that would be time consuming work, but it's still necessary to prove anything definitive. I still might do my own analysis, but it's not like you're going to take my word for it, so I don't see how that would help you any. :lol:

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:23 pm

After a complete review of the spreadsheet data, I did find a few errors.
A couple of hands were incorrectly marked as making a point. Below is the updated file.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Now you may or disagree on if a block should have been called or if it was played correctly, but all are from real games played by readers of this forum.


---------------------------------------------
Led trump, made point

5 hands made point.
hand # = 2,3,16,21,24
Total hand # = 2,3,5,7,12,13,16,17,21,24,29,30,34,36,38,40,49,50,51,52,54,56,60,64,66,71,76,78,79,81,85,91,93,101
Total hands led trump – 34
Total hands made point – 15%
---------------------------------------------

Had no trump to lead, made point

1 hand made point.
hand # 11
Total hands, no trump to lead = 32
Hand # = 4,6,8,9,10,11,14,18,20,27,28,31,32,33,35,37,41,42,44,53,55,57,59,62,65,68,69,72,80,82,94,96
Total hands made point – .03%
---------------------------------------------

Didn’t led trump, made point

1 hand made point.
hand # 45
Total hands. Didn’t led trump = 22
hand # = 15,19,22,23,25,45,46,47,48,61,67,75,77,84,87,88,89,90,92,94,97,98
Total hands made point – .04%
---------------------------------------------

12 hands not used due to blocks called from 3rd and one called as dealer.
1 hand made a point #86

Hand # 26,39,43,58,63,70,73,74,83,86,95,99
------------------------------------------------

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:52 pm

DON,

Two BIG issues with your results. I contend your 15% is ERRONEOUS!

I.) 2, 3, 16, 21 & 24:
On #2 the outcome is the same if S1 does NOT lead trump. This is comparison not only if trump is led but what if not led. NO DIFFERENCE!

On #3, leading trump does result in a point, only because JH & JD are split with the opponents. That type of situation only occurs about 4.5% that Dealer has no other trump and S2 only has the unguarded Left. But from S1 perspective how do you ever know when is when.

On #16 is good one also a situation that dealer had Right + one and the off suit cards and voids worked out just right. S3 had to have 3 trumps (9%). Leading off suit does NOT results in a point so a good lead by S1.

On #21 NO DIFFERENCE IF TRUMP IS NOT LED POINT SCORED. This is comparison not only if trump is led but what if not led.

On #24 I contend it was played incorrectly by dealer on trick 3. I would lead JS. But this could be argued either way.

This boils down to 2 or 3 where a point would be scored if trump was led. For sure 2 where it is better and that is when the Bowers are split and naked, for a statistical expected being ~4.4%. You can't give credit for playing a hand wrong.

II. For each of your sets of hands, they have to be played both ways for comparison, leading trump and not leading trump. All those you have for leading trump were NOT played by not leading trump for comparison.

IRISH

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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:57 pm

A SAMPLE SIZE OF 32 HANDS,

IS DANGEROUS TO DRAW ANY TYPE OF CONCLUSIONS FROM AND NOT BEING LARGE ENOUGH.

IRISH

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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:57 pm

There is also another thing to take into consideration. Seat 3 playing correctly in in both scenarios. If they do not then it can possibly upset the chance of scoring a point on the donating scenario's.


Tbolt65
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irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:29 pm

EXACTLY!

There is also another thing to take into consideration. Seat 3 playing correctly in in both scenarios. If they do not then it can possibly upset the chance of scoring a point on the donating scenario's.

IRISH

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Fri Sep 24, 2021 8:17 pm

Can someone explain to me why you're all debating over a set of data that covers a variety of donations, when the purpose (AFAIK) of this whole thread was to determine whether or not leading trump on a donation is sometimes correct, surely no one who frequents this site believes that a trump lead can ALWAYS be correct on a donation? How does this data help us determine whether it's correct to lead trump with more specific donation hands, such as a 4 suited trash hand with a Q or lower trump, and a 4 suited hand with an ace, and a Q or lower trump. Does logic not dictate that a specific hand needs to be put through rigorous testing?

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Unread post by Dlan » Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:52 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:52 pm

I contend your 15% is ERRONEOUS!
I'm simply showing the results from a 100 hand data set.

As Sergeant Joe Friday once said, "Just the facts" :)

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