What should I have called here?

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XaviRonaldo
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What should I have called here?

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:01 am

In first seat ahead 9-6

(Card_K-S) is the upturned card

I held

(Card_J-S) (Card_9-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_9-H)

The KS was turned down. Passing would've been absolutely the wrong decision IMO as I had no defence to diamonds. I decided to call next but unfortunately the dealer was sitting on a next call and I got euchred. There was only 2 other hearts out there in the end and my partner had 1. Both red jacks were sleeping. I obviously had no idea of this of course.

Was hearts the better call statistically anyway? Being 3 suited with no bauers and no aces I didn't think so.

Happy to get some expert insight here.



irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:34 pm

Clubs is the call not hearts. But you did not post how the hand was played out?

You must have led trump to the 1st trick to get euchred. Yes, you have to call and crossing suit is not the answer.

I am probably at odds on what to lead, either the low club or the AH. I like the AH as this is a better defense against Baggers. It allows your partner to slough his garbage and create a void. If the AH goes through, lead the KH as it allows your partner to over trump and the Dealer has to spend a trump. This also gives you options to slough or trump and lead from hearts again. For bagger will have to have three clubs. If he does bag, your partner at S3 has to have some high spades. Much better strategy than leading trump.

Played that way, I don't see how you got euchred?

IRISHWOLF

But that ia mw ingif you have any idea

XaviRonaldo
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Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:32 pm

I led AH. LHO threw off (they had no clubs) and the ace walked. I led hearts again but dealer had 3 trump. They trumped in and led the right then the AS. My partner did show trump but they played KC so I correctly guessed that was their only trump. I had no choice but to trump with my left and hope the dealer was out of trump but alas they had the 3rd trump for the euchre.

PS they had the Right and the AC so if I'd led trump the result would've been the same as I would've lost both my trumps.

Fortunately the next hand I got a guaranteed 3 trick hand for the win

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:34 am

Dealer trumped your 2nd heart lead then the AS? If so he turned down a spade while holding JC AS AC?

You played it correctly, just a big time bag with JC AC XC AS!

They trumped in and led the right then the AS.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:08 pm

XaviRonaldo wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:32 pm
I led AH. LHO threw off (they had no clubs) and the ace walked.

Terminology point:
LHO stands for Left Hand Opponent but of the Dealer. So you in Seat 1 are the LHO. Go to “Euchre Rules” and then “Euchre Terms” to see the definitions. You have to go to Eldest aka LHO, aka S1 or Pone, aka Pone, aka S3 or Table Positions to find LHO and RHO.

I led hearts again but dealer had 3 trump. They trumped in and led the right then the AS. My partner did show trump but they played KC so I correctly guessed that was their only trump. I had no choice but to trump with my left and hope the dealer was out of trump but alas they had the 3rd trump for the euchre.

PS they had the Right and the AC so if I'd led trump the result would've been the same as I would've lost both my trumps.

Fortunately the next hand I got a guaranteed 3 trick hand for the win

Your observation, “I got euchred but won the game,” illustrates a key point about ordering Next from R2S1! Ordering Next R2S1 is not just 1, Offensively excellent Euchre but 2, Is Defensively excellent Euchre!! You blocked any possible Euchre by your opponents. You had no defense against a Reverse Next, Diamond Loner with your hand and Turned Down card configuration. Ordering blocked that higher-than-usual probability!! You were also up 9-6 and you would have the deal and a 65-70% probability of taking the 10th and winning point!!! The GP (General Principle) is order from R2S1 for defensive reasons, not just offensive reasons.

XaviRonaldo
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Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:29 pm

Ok. I guess I should clarify as MY left hand opponent

XaviRonaldo
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Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:35 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:34 am
Dealer trumped your 2nd heart lead then the AS? If so he turned down a spade while holding JC AS AC?

You played it correctly, just a big time bag with JC AC XC AS!

They trumped in and led the right then the AS.
Cone to think of it they may have had the (Card_J-H). I don't fully remember. I know I said earlier they were sleeping but now I'm not sure. I guess holding a strong next suit hand and a Bauer in green they figured they'd pass hoping for a euchre as by calling they're only likely getting 1 point. They're also allowing for the chance that I don't know to donate and their partner could have a loner. That is a bad pass really as I see it though with 2 guaranteed tricks with spades.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:32 am

I would call clubs and lead the 9C but I am very open to Wolf's idea of leading the AH in this spot. Like I wouldn't be shocked if leading the AH outperformed leading the 9C after being put to the test.

XaviRonaldo
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Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:37 am

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:32 am
I would call clubs and lead the 9C but I am very open to Wolf's idea of leading the AH in this spot. Like I wouldn't be shocked if leading the AH outperformed leading the 9C after being put to the test.
Would be interesting to do some Sims with random card distribution apart from the 6 known cards at the start of the hand. In this particular hand I think a euchre was inevitable though.

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:29 am

Here is where the Euchre Workshop comes into play. Setting this up is simply a matter of selecting a hand, then redealing the other 3 seats. The dealer is in south (at the bottom of the screen)

I ran 6 hands, discarding one as the dealer would have likely picked the king.

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irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:47 pm

You said: Here is where the Euchre Workshop comes into play. Setting this up is simply a matter of selecting a hand, then redealing the other 3 seats. The dealer is in south (at the bottom of the screen)

I ran 6 hands, discarding one as the dealer would have likely picked the king.

Of the 5 hands displayed:
But dealer turned it down (KS) and the issue is what 'make' and what to lead by S1. Assuming Next -
>Hand 1, leading low 9C is better but a point if AH is led as well.
>4th, S2 would order with Left + 2 and an AC.
>2nd & 3rd Hand is euchred regardless of what is led.
>Last hand S1 is euchred if a club is led and Point if AH is led.

But leading trump in general is not as good as leading Hearts, trump and keep lead them. Only one hand did S3 have the JC, opponents had it in all the others. Of course, you have to do a statistically valid sample size to validate the correct lead for Next

-OR- calling hearts which is disaster in 3 of the 5 hands posted for a EUCHRE.

IRISH

XaviRonaldo
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Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:19 am

Dlan wrote:
Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:29 am
Here is where the Euchre Workshop comes into play. Setting this up is simply a matter of selecting a hand, then redealing the other 3 seats. The dealer is in south (at the bottom of the screen)

I ran 6 hands, discarding one as the dealer would have likely picked the king.

Image
In this example would you agree that S3 should order up here if we are playing the order at the bridge strategy? They hold a protected left and S1 has passed spades meaning S1 either has the right or 3 spades A high. Pretty good chance of a point despite poor offsuit on S3 behalf. On the other hand they hold a stopper in every suit but S1 doesn't know this so S1 passing should indicate they have spades stopped therefore a good chance of a point considering S3's holding

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:55 pm

XaviRonaldo wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:19 am
In this example would you agree that S3 should order up here if we are playing the order at the bridge strategy? They hold a protected left and S1 has passed spades meaning S1 either has the right or 3 spades A high. Pretty good chance of a point despite poor offsuit on S3 behalf. On the other hand they hold a stopper in every suit but S1 doesn't know this so S1 passing should indicate they have spades stopped therefore a good chance of a point considering S3's holding
No, S3 should not be ordering this up, especially if they have an expert partner. You block all suits from S3, and you can only offer minimum help if say the dealer has 3 trump and an ace, and your partner holds only the right. Plus, your partner could simply have 2 aces and a trump or two. You don't always have to call non-jacks/aces at 9-6 if you have options, never underestimate that you can lose your deal at 9-8, and that the opponents can now win just by scoring a point on their deal. Don't give up a point on 9-6 if you don't have to.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Sep 03, 2021 6:58 pm

With it being 9-6 and dealer turned down your lead with you getting the deal on next hand. I am fine with either call. Next(clubs) or hearts. I however favor Next usually. You don't want to be passing. You have a chance at winning. At worst its 9-8 and your deal. So basically call something here. The wrong play would be to pass. Either call is acceptable.

Tbolt65
Edward

XaviRonaldo
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Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Sat Sep 04, 2021 6:04 am

Tbolt65 wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 6:58 pm
With it being 9-6 and dealer turned down your lead with you getting the deal on next hand. I am fine with either call. Next(clubs) or hearts. I however favor Next usually. You don't want to be passing. You have a chance at winning. At worst its 9-8 and your deal. So basically call something here. The wrong play would be to pass. Either call is acceptable.

Tbolt65
Edward
Not only is passing a bad option because you have a biddable hand you are also asking for a diamond loner by passing.

icanplay
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Unread post by icanplay » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm

You called next, and that was correct. You really need to lead the nine of clubs.

icanplay
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Unread post by icanplay » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:15 pm

The real problem with the simulator is that your partner will have the right bar about half the times and this is not represented. Your opponents are not very likely at all to have the right in their hand and pass on spades... So there are 3 buried cards and 5 cards in your opponents hand. Leading trump makes your Ace stronger, it makes any Ace of your partners stronger. It eliminates the chance of your partners right coming out with your left. It is the move, however it is far from fools proof. Tell me one thing, if you are losing and the other team has nine you have the right, You should not pass often. Not a best practice...

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:58 pm

icanplay wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:15 pm
The real problem with the simulator is that your partner will have the right bar about half the times and this is not represented.
With a larger sample size, the simulator would have shown as you suggest.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:50 pm

I ran a simulation over 10,000 hands, about 45% of which made it as far as 2nd round bidding.
- clubs bid was far better than hearts bid (or passing);
- 9C lead was statistically equal to JS lead (tiniest difference), but leading the former resulted in more 2-point wins and more euchres; EV approx. 0.10;
- AH lead much worse

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