RedDuke wrote: ↑Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:58 pm
First game, we are up 5-2.
I'm sitting in first seat holding:
Turn card is the jacks of clubs.
You picked the exact worst spot in the game, or depending on how you look at it, the exact best spot to donate. No trump no aces vs a Jack upcard is a nightmare spot, the greatest of all nightmares. That spot is so bad it might actually be correct to donate ANY time your opponents have less than 8 points. Yes I am actually implicitly suggesting that donating may be correct here even if you're down 7-0!!!
The idea goes something like this: Whenever you are in this nightmare spot, where you have no trump no aces in seat 1 vs a Jack upcard, expectation-wise you have probably already lost close to 2 points anyways--that's how bad this spot is, so you might as well donate to prevent a 4 point freeroll.
Now I've just made an extraordinary claim and whenever that happens you have the rational right, in fact more like the rational responsibility to be extremely skeptical. Whenever someone makes such a bold claim in any card game your first response should always be, "Cool story bro, show me the math".
And I don't have the math so I won't get offended at all if you don't accept my claim, but for the love of god plz accept this much more palatable not so extraordinary claim: Whenever you're up 2+ points and you have no trump no aces vs a Jack upcard ALWAYS donate.
Scratch that, I wanna get greedier: No matter what that upcard is, if you have no trump no aces with a 2+ point lead ALWAYS donate.