Sandbagging?

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RedDuke
Posts: 227
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Sandbagging?

Post by RedDuke » Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:00 pm

This came up yesterday. I was in first seat, holding this:

(Card_J-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_J-S) (Card_J-H) (Card_9-S)

Turn card was the King of Hearts and everybody turned it down.

Everybody passed first round.

Second round, I passed figuring that I've got two sure tricks in my hand no matter what trump is. While I probably have three tricks if I called spades (since I have first lead), I don't have a sure sweep for two points. Since it's STD though, my team has a pretty good shot at the euchre unless my partner has total garbage. Thus, we'd probably get an extra point over me calling.

Ultimately, that did happen. The dealer called Spades, I actually led my Jack of Diamonds, my partner ended up having the ace, and we euchred them.

Despite the outcome though, do you guys think that was the smartest play or should I have called Spades? Clearly with this hand, I had everything blocked so I didn't have to worry about the reverse-next loner.



irishwolf
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:45 am

It's a tough one.

I think depends on the score/situation, considering it is your deal next hand. What is my partner likely to do if he has two trumps/two aces or three small trumps. Is my left hand opponent aggressive with 2nd round calls. Those factors enter in the equation to pass or call. If I call spades I will make my point over 9 of 10 calls. My partner is likely to have hearts and diamonds, not clubs.

In the long-run you will make more points by calling spades. I have studied this one in detail - playing out hands dealt both ways. Give yourself the hand and eliminate to upcard as six known cards. You also have to throw out any hands that the dealer or his partner would have made hearts trump. (You have to throw out around 25 -30%.) Then do a 100 hands played both ways. If my partner had 3 of a suit he called that suit trump (except hearts) and we made a sweep most of the time.

There is no guarantee of euchring the opponents in clubs or diamonds, you have two sure tricks but no aces and it is two to one the opponents have the aces. Your partner has to take a trick. I played the 1st trick by leading what was turned down. I want them trumping the trick and having the lead. I want then to lead trump so I get both bowers in play. Then it wishing my partner has an off suit ace.

Of course in spades you usually get your euchre.

Most players will pass with this hand.

Irishwolf

RedDuke
Posts: 227
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:02 am

There is no guarantee of euchring the opponents in clubs or diamonds, you have two sure tricks but no aces and it is two to one the opponents have the aces. Your partner has to take a trick. I played the 1st trick by leading what was turned down. I want them trumping the trick and having the lead. I want then to lead trump so I get both bowers in play. Then it wishing my partner has an off suit ace.
There's actually even a chance that I could get euchred myself in spades here if one of the opponents has three trumps. It's highly unlikely, but still possible if one of them can overtrump the nine and take out my two offsuits.

irishwolf
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:06 am

Humans make quick decision using gut probability or chance of something coming out in their favor. We are not, generally speaking, very good at it accurately predicting probability.

So with the four Jacks + small side card what (just for fun) guess as to the questions attached. This is for all faced with this issue, playing STD:

1) If you pass at 1st seat, how many times do you think you will Euchre the opponent?
a. What will you play to the 1st trick?
b. How many times do you think spades will called?

2) If you call trump with Js Jc 9s, how many marches (2 pts) do expect to make?

3) How many times do think you will be euchred if you make spades trump?

If you want to be good at euchre, you have to have an idea about each of these.

Irishwolf

RedDuke
Posts: 227
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:35 pm

1) If you pass at 1st seat, how many times do you think you will Euchre the opponent?
One out of three, at best. Probably lower than that.
a. What will you play to the 1st trick?
Probably one of the green jacks and hope that my partner can trump.
b. How many times do you think spades will called?
33% at best. If the dealer is following standard strategy of calling reverse next then it's one in two.
2) If you call trump with Js Jc 9s, how many marches (2 pts) do expect to make?
Again, not many. While you can probably get three tricks yourself because you have first lead, you're really betting that your partner is either void in the green suits or has two red aces, and that's less than a 10% chance.
3) How many times do think you will be euchred if you make spades trump?
Being outright euchred is rare. Lead both bowers straight off if you have to and you'll make the point better than 75% of the time.

I was trying to get two points here, not one though. I figured that I had better odds of euchring them than I did of making march. Granted, if my fifth card would have been an ace, then the euchre is almost guaranteed.

irishwolf
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:06 pm

I was hoping for more responses. I need to answer and move on ...

RedDuke you had some pretty good guesses. Below are what I have found based on 250 hands played both ways. But first let's just explore how many points you can reasonably expect to get by Passing and playing STD, with no calls by your partner. Dealer makes trump or his partner calls trump with 3 trumps and an ace. That is how I played the hands. (based per each hundred hands played)
Let's give you a generous amount of times you euchre the opponent - 50% on 100 hands is 100 points from euchres. So the rest is 50% that the opponent has three trumps and/or side aces that nets to 50 points for the opponents.
Net points is then 100 (from euchres) minus 50 (they made 1 point) is then 50 points to your favor.

Suppose you calls spades trump :Js Jc 9s Jd Jh No sweeps but let's assume they euchre you 5 times (generous) x 2 = 10 points. So you make 1 point 95 hands for 95 points minus 10 (5 euchres) = 85 points compared the 50 points if you passed. 35 points Net more scored if you make spades. That number though is too low. I experienced 25 to 30 hands were sweeps. That is another 25 to 30 points added to the 35 net for 1 point hands. Net net is 60 to 65 more points by calling spades than passing.

Suppose you euchred the opponents 65% over 100 hands - that is 130 points minus 35 (1 pointers) is 95 net points. Still not enough better to make spades trump.

Answers to questions is Euchring opponents is 38 - 44% based on the hands I did 250 hands. Just to breakeven you will have to euchre the opponents if you pass 65 - 70% - just not going to happen.

Your partner calling spades, has to have 3 of the 4 unknown spades to call trump, with a side ace for conservative players - crossing suit. This won't happen more than 3 - 5 times in 100 hands.

Had I looked at the math and breakeven based on euchres, I didn't need to do the hands. However, I thought euchres could be in the range of 60% which still favors calling spades.

This hand fooled 11 good euchre players in a Euchre Poll - four Jacks looks juicy. (With out a side ace - I doubted the results and did the math backed by real hands to get to the truth - voting does not make something right!). Goes to show, our subjective "probabilities" calculations are not always accurate.

If you call spades, you might get euchred 3 or 4 times, worst case.

I experienced 28% marches calling spades. I always led Jh first to keep it constant and what was turned down. If my partner won the heart trick, he could have another heart (as it went down) or another ace for the march.

A word of caution - if that 5th card is an Ace then you should Pass! Different hand and situation. Don't wait - I would lead both bowers then the Ace. You need 75 euchres / 100 hands.

Okay, I think we have beat this one to Death!

Irishwolf

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