irishwolf wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:21 am
Here is my two cents on this hand. It called s h i t happens! Only mistake S2 makes is not trumping the 2nd trick and leading the Right. Still, after S2 gets over trumped you get euchred anyway.
So how does this occur, well, S1 set this up when he leads from Ace triplet. S3 then has to have a void and and a trump. A void to a triplet is 35% and must have a trump of 3 unknown is 65% x 35% = ~21% of the time your lowly 9 will get over trumped. So you are good, statistically speaking worst case as S1 has to have a Ace triplet to set this up. So it is actually far lower probability your 9 will get over trumped (21% x Ace triplet - around 5 to 6%. So if you want to be sure, then trump HIGHER. But that would not work either as S3 uses the LEFT over your Ace and you are still euchred! So it does not matter here unless S4 discards to get rid of that Spade.
Irish, leading the right is simply not the correct play here. We know this for several reasons. Unless S1 correctly guessed that S3 is playing under with the AS (an unnecessary risk) and played off instead of trumping, we should assume that they have no trump. That means it's very possible for S3 to have 3 trump, and for the dealer to only have the KC that was ordered into their hand, especially since the dealer has already been caught on a heart and a spade. We also know that the dealer is void in diamonds, because they have shown hearts and spades, and they do not possess the ace, which is the only scenario where they would not be void, as it is in the maker's hand.
With all of this information we can determine that leading the 10D is the best course of action, for three reasons. First is that S3 may be less likely to trump a 10D compared to an ace, even though this is a losing play, as the dealer is void in diamonds. Second, we want our partner to always trump this next card lead if they are able to, that will secure our point, and even if they know to trump the ace, they have more incentive to trump a 10. Third, leading the 10D will avoid a euchre in the event that S3 plays the left, and then leads back the QC, knocking out all remaining trump, and leaving the maker with a 10D, which will now lose to S1's KD. I'm fully aware this a rare scenario, but logically, we can look at all the factors and determine the best course of action to secure a point, and avoid the euchre.