R1S2 Order and Play & Don’t send a boy…

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Richardb02
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R1S2 Order and Play & Don’t send a boy…

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Jul 25, 2021 3:06 pm

This is a case of my “boy” getting overtrumped and I get euchred. I know that we have covered “don’t send a boy to do a man’s job” before, but I would like to consolidate when to play the “boy” and when to play the “man,” with this post.

Secondly, I have played this hand out in many different ways. It appears that the adverse card distribution makes this a hand that get’s euchred. Am I missing something?

Here is the hand. I left the names on, it is a random WoCG hand:

Image



https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D




jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:57 pm

EDIT: I was very wrong, the only way you avoid a euchre is to lead the 10D, and anticipate a trump lead from S3.

Yes, I do believe you're missing something. The only reason the maker gets euchred here is because they simply let a trick go by them for absolutely no reason, not because they trumped low, and got over trumped. Not to mention that you will still get beat by the left even if you use your ace here, and your 9 would still lose to his other 2 trump if he plays last. Even if you trump with the ace you're still going to get beat by the left. All the maker had to do here was trump with the AC, and then lead the AD. The dealer has to be void in diamonds, considering you hold the ace, and they already showed hearts/spades. You just need their KC to beat out a QC, because if S3 uses the left on your ace, then he loses any potential euchre.
Last edited by jspectre on Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

RedDuke
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Unread post by RedDuke » Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:05 pm

Why in the world did the maker not trump in on that second trick? Throwing off the 10 of diamonds instead of trumping in is what cost the maker the hand.

In trick two, the maker actually has last play. The Ace-trump would have taken the trick. I can sort of understand the reason for wanting to keep the two aces just in case you need to take out something that the enemy has but without knowing where the left is, it's a pretty bad move.You already know that the dealer won't trump your ace-diamonds and he has the king-trump so unless the dealer is an incredibly player, his KC will take a trick against anything but the left. So if you take the trick with the AC, then lead back the AD, one if two things will happen. Either S3 will use a low trump and then your partner will take whatever it is with the king, letting you keep the right to get your third trick or the guy in S3 will trump it with the left and your partner will throw off, allowing him to make both his king (which beats anything but your right) and your right good.

You already know for sure where 5 trumps are. The 9, Ace, Right (in your hand), King (in your partner's), 10 (that was used to overtrump you on the first hand). That only leads the left and the queen unaccounted for. You don't want to lead with the right because if the king is all your partner has, he won't be able to overtrump the queen against S3 if S3 has it.

The only real way you'd wind up euchred with this strategy would be if the Queen was in S1's hand and S1 had a diamond void. Neither of which is the case here.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:21 am

Here is my two cents on this hand. It called s h i t happens! Only mistake S2 makes is not trumping the 2nd trick and leading the Right. Still, after S2 gets over trumped you get euchred anyway.

So how does this occur, well, S1 set this up when he leads from Ace triplet. S3 then has to have a void and and a trump. A void to a triplet is 35% and must have a trump of 3 unknown is 65% x 35% = ~21% of the time your lowly 9 will get over trumped. So you are good, statistically speaking worst case as S1 has to have a Ace triplet to set this up. So it is actually far lower probability your 9 will get over trumped (21% x Ace triplet - around 5 to 6%. So if you want to be sure, then trump HIGHER. But that would not work either as S3 uses the LEFT over your Ace and you are still euchred! So it does not matter here unless S4 discards to get rid of that Spade.

But I would not use the Ace clubs unless it was a second lead of the same suit. That is when you duck or trump high. With the hand S2 has, actually, you have a Loner hand!

JUST ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE WOCG, SET-UP HANDS, THAT NEVER HAPPENS UNLESS THE MOON IS FULL! Missing something, NO WAY!

IRISHWOLF

"This is a case of my “boy” getting overtrumped and I get euchred. I know that we have covered “don’t send a boy to do a man’s job” before, but I would like to consolidate when to play the “boy” and when to play the “man,” with this post.

Secondly, I have played this hand out in many different ways. It appears that the adverse card distribution makes this a hand that get’s euchred. Am I missing something "

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Mon Jul 26, 2021 3:06 am

RedDuke wrote:
Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:05 pm
The only real way you'd wind up euchred with this strategy would be if the Queen was in S1's hand and S1 had a diamond void. Neither of which is the case here.
Actually, the maker is euchred whether he leads the AD or the right, after he trumps the KS. I wasn't thinking about how S3 would play the hand from my own perspective, I incorrectly analyzed that S3 only has 2 losing options, but there's a 3rd one as well. S3 knows the dealer is void in diamonds, because he has already shown hearts and spades, so his void can only be diamonds. They also know the KC was ordered into the dealers hand, so the QC is simply a losing option. Trumping with the left will block the dealer from playing their trump, but now the maker's team holds the highest 2 remaining trump, and can secure their point. However, enter the 3rd option, play the left and block out the dealer, then lead the QC, knocking out all remaining trump, and forcing the maker to win a trick with their final card, except their 10D is not boss, and will be defeated by the KD from S1, thus resulting in the euchre.

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Mon Jul 26, 2021 3:28 am

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:21 am
Here is my two cents on this hand. It called s h i t happens! Only mistake S2 makes is not trumping the 2nd trick and leading the Right. Still, after S2 gets over trumped you get euchred anyway.

So how does this occur, well, S1 set this up when he leads from Ace triplet. S3 then has to have a void and and a trump. A void to a triplet is 35% and must have a trump of 3 unknown is 65% x 35% = ~21% of the time your lowly 9 will get over trumped. So you are good, statistically speaking worst case as S1 has to have a Ace triplet to set this up. So it is actually far lower probability your 9 will get over trumped (21% x Ace triplet - around 5 to 6%. So if you want to be sure, then trump HIGHER. But that would not work either as S3 uses the LEFT over your Ace and you are still euchred! So it does not matter here unless S4 discards to get rid of that Spade.
Irish, leading the right is simply not the correct play here. We know this for several reasons. Unless S1 correctly guessed that S3 is playing under with the AS (an unnecessary risk) and played off instead of trumping, we should assume that they have no trump. That means it's very possible for S3 to have 3 trump, and for the dealer to only have the KC that was ordered into their hand, especially since the dealer has already been caught on a heart and a spade. We also know that the dealer is void in diamonds, because they have shown hearts and spades, and they do not possess the ace, which is the only scenario where they would not be void, as it is in the maker's hand.

With all of this information we can determine that leading the 10D is the best course of action, for three reasons. First is that S3 may be less likely to trump a 10D compared to an ace, even though this is a losing play, as the dealer is void in diamonds. Second, we want our partner to always trump this next card lead if they are able to, that will secure our point, and even if they know to trump the ace, they have more incentive to trump a 10. Third, leading the 10D will avoid a euchre in the event that S3 plays the left, and then leads back the QC, knocking out all remaining trump, and leaving the maker with a 10D, which will now lose to S1's KD. I'm fully aware this a rare scenario, but logically, we can look at all the factors and determine the best course of action to secure a point, and avoid the euchre.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:08 pm

jspectre, Yes and I will modify my answer on leading the JC on trick 3 and agree that a Diamond is the best lead. But you indicated to false card your partner by leading the 10D??? That I disagree with. No need for S2 to false card if S1 assumption is that he has no trump. And no need to trump the AD by S4 had it been led.

You are contradicting yourself as in a previous post, you said, "...but don't [ever]y try to trick your own partner! The only exception would be if you're playing with a weaker player..."

So you assumed S1 did not have any trump as he let the KS trick (another false your partner] slide. I would say a good play by S3 to try and trick the dealer. From S3 point of view, S1 could have the AC and S2 ordered with JC 9C AD.

But a good assumption that S1 has no trumps but players do illogical. We will go with that assumption from S2 perspective, S1 has no trump. So yes, lead that Diamond and the dealer can over trump unless JS is played, then the dealer trumps the next trick and they get their point. It matters little if S3 has JS/QC.

So S2 did not trump that KS trick. Sometimes it is good to not break-up the JC/Ace trump combo. I will assume that is exactly what S2 was thinking. With S2 sloughing to trick 2, you are now in big trouble as S3 only needs the JS behind your JC/AC.

S2 did not look at the cards statistically when S1 sloughed to the KS lead. And it was a 4% chance S3 had JS/QC at the beginning of he and, and 23% chance dealer only had KC. Letting that KS trick slide was a big mistake, bigger than the issue of trump low or trump high. Now S3 does not need the left guarded.

It all played out exactly that way according to WOCG dealer sets up those 'opposing hands'. I see it that way beyond how cards are randomly dealt. And for what reason . . . ?? Leading the JC would statistically make the AD good over 90% of the time bu in this situation as you point out (jspectre).

IRISHWOLF

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Mon Jul 26, 2021 2:54 pm

Irish, I don't believe that's a contradiction at all. You want your partner to get a trick with their KC, that's all you need to secure a point. Assuming these are good players, S1 has to be void in trump, because they could have trumped the KS, and potentially led back a heart, something the dealer most likely has, and that S3 can potentially over trump the maker. That means leading the AD is simply an unnecessary risk, because now we know that S3 could very well have 3 trump, and if he can block out S4 with the left, that will allow him to lead his final trump, knocking out all remaining trump in the game, and forcing the maker to win a trick with their last card.

I'm sure the maker would much prefer this card to be an ace rather than a 10. My ultimate goal in leading the 10D is not to trick my partner into trumping a trick they should let walk, it's to protect myself, but there's nothing wrong with killing two birds with one stone, either. I also disagree with the assumption that it's a good play for S3 to try and trick the dealer, S2 is the maker, not the dealer. The dealer simply isn't going to be fooled into playing off on a KS and losing his team another trick. Instead, he has given away valuable information, that S1 is void of trump.

Now, if S3 leads properly with the AS, then this entire hand is a different story altogether.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Jul 28, 2021 11:22 am

Oh yes it is a contradiction, read what you said:

You stated, emphatically, "... but don't every try to trick your own partner! The only exception would be if you're playing with a weaker player, and need them to trump your lead with the highest card they have, a good player knows to trump the ace, ...

Don't make such statements as "always', 'never', etc. You have done it several times now. Just about the only truism of always, etc. is that the Right Bower is worth ONE trick. Everything else has exceptions, just find them.

IRISHWOLF

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Wed Jul 28, 2021 7:50 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:21 am
.
But I would not use the Ace clubs unless it was a second lead of the same suit. That is when you duck or trump high.
I am distilling this post to Irish’s general principle, for my KISS purposes.

Irish did provide us a 2nd general principle, “‘it happens.”

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Wed Jul 28, 2021 8:55 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Wed Jul 28, 2021 11:22 am
Oh yes it is a contradiction, read what you said:

You stated, emphatically, "... but don't every try to trick your own partner! The only exception would be if you're playing with a weaker player, and need them to trump your lead with the highest card they have, a good player knows to trump the ace, ...

Don't make such statements as "always', 'never', etc. You have done it several times now. Just about the only truism of always, etc. is that the Right Bower is worth ONE trick. Everything else has exceptions, just find them.

IRISHWOLF
That's not a contradiction, the goal is not to trick your partner in this circumstance. You should rarely, if ever, try to trick your p, and I stand by that. Can you point me to a circumstance where an expert player would need to be tricked into using their trump? Leading the 10 instead of the ace is not so that your partner trumps it (granted, this is a desirable outcome) it's to keep your ace as a boss card in the probable scenario that S3 leads trump back to you, and forces you to get a trick on your last card. It's not at all unreasonable to suspect that S3 is holding 3 trump, given how the hand has played out so far.

FinallyHere
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Unread post by FinallyHere » Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:28 am

JSPECTRE please oh please try to come back!

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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:24 pm

the only mistake s2 makes , Irish? Seat two should be calling a loner here ! And if you get a competent opponent they led KD and the caller makes their point. You guys are missing the most obvious thing about this whole hand.....

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:03 pm

LeftyK wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:24 pm
the only mistake s2 makes , Irish? Seat two should be calling a loner here ! And if you get a competent opponent they led KD and the caller makes their point. You guys are missing the most obvious thing about this whole hand.....
I agree in playing alone for s2, but the 9 diamond is the correct play if alone was made by seat 2. Single ace is bad against loners as we all know.

Tbolt65
Edward

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