A Solid Loner

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RedDuke
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A Solid Loner

Unread post by RedDuke » Fri Jul 16, 2021 6:51 pm

Not really the perfect hand but it was good for four points: https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

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Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Jul 16, 2021 6:59 pm

Did you post the right hand?

When I played the hand, Maker got 1 point!

RedDuke
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Unread post by RedDuke » Fri Jul 16, 2021 7:03 pm

I was the maker...

It wasn't a four pointer but still a good hand to try a loner.

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Sat Jul 17, 2021 3:23 pm

Frankly, I don't understand why you wouldn't order up hearts, you have both bowers, and a void. Even if you have a near perfect diamonds loner you're still asking for S1 to have a bad enough hand that all he can do is pass. In this example S1 blows the call on spades, and this lets S2 call next. As for the loner, I have stopped trying hands such as these, unless we're done 8-3 or something, and we need a miracle.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Jul 18, 2021 8:38 pm

I agree RedDuke that this is worth a Loner try. The OP though only earned 1 point.

I stick to a very simple (macro, 30,000 foot view) analysis, until proven otherwise. Once I noticed Opponents taking 4 points with similar hands. I concluded that the Loner has about a 30% chance of taking 4 points. The analysis, there are only 3 suits left. So Opponents only have a 2/3 possibility of saving the right suit. Since there are a couple of other possibilities of being stopped, I round up to being stopped 70% of the time.

Your hand helped me to refine my simple analysis. Most Loners are ordered from R1S4, R2S1 and R2S4. Those hands have a 30% chance of taking 4 points, because the Maker controls the play.

A Maker from other positions do not control the play. Your OP is R2S2 Next. It is a weaker Loner order than R1S4, R2S1 & R2S4. So an additional analysis makes sense. Opponents still have a 1/3 chance of stopping your Loner. Additionally, they have a 50% chance of choosing the right “stopping-suit.” (I also suggest that against OE quality players the probability is higher). But against “generic” players, lets add the 1/3 and 50% chances for an 83% chance of being stopped. Let’s round it to 85% for this discussion and the following EV (Expected Value) calculation:
EV4= 85%x1 + 15%x4 = 1.45 points
EV1=65%x1 + 35%x2= 1.35 points
So it is better to play for 4 points.
But, 1 out of 6 or 7 hands, approximately, doesn’t feel satisfying. I understand players that order and settle for 1 or 2 points.
I also note that I ignored getting euchred in my EV. I suggest with RL+2, getting euchred is so tiny, it can be ignored.
I also respect jspectre’s logic. This hand is a good order R1S2 in hearts. But lets look at additional factors. A Next order R2S1 is likely 2 points for S2’s team, vs a probable 1 point with a R1S2 order. The score is low (less than 4-4). Our team is even up 2-0. Go for 4, go for the near-knockout punch, in this situation, notwithstanding that Opponents may be strong in Reverse-Next (yes R2S1 missed a Reverse-Next order in spades, generic opponents!).

Aggressive Euchre is winning Euchre, is another “macro-analysis.” It is an “OE Lesson” basic guideline. It is a strong guideline and has not been proven otherwise, IMHO.

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Sun Jul 18, 2021 9:22 pm

@Richard

I have to disagree with that 30% statistic. I think it's much closer to 10%, at least if we're talking about good players. It is much easier to score 4 against weaker players, as they may not know the correct card to lead, and they may not give their partner the information they need to stop the lone. Against skilled players, trying to sneak a 9 or 10 through requires a lot of luck, the odds are certainly much better of getting 2 with your partner's help, if your off suit is too low. I'm only trying hands like these if a loner is very likely to be the only hope of winning. However, I am reconsidering whether one should wait for a chance to call next if they have an almost guaranteed loner, as S1 will be reluctant to cross the river unless they have a solid hand in black, but on the other hand, I have also been denied a next call from S2 plenty of times, and those weren't even loner attempts. I'm calling hearts here the vast majority of the time, unless I'm very desperate.

But yes, against weaker players, go alone with anything that has a decent chance, and is unlikely to be euchred.

XaviRonaldo
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Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:44 am

jspectre wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 3:23 pm
Frankly, I don't understand why you wouldn't order up hearts, you have both bowers, and a void. Even if you have a near perfect diamonds loner you're still asking for S1 to have a bad enough hand that all he can do is pass. In this example S1 blows the call on spades, and this lets S2 call next. As for the loner, I have stopped trying hands such as these, unless we're done 8-3 or something, and we need a miracle.
Yeah I think with that poor offsuit waiting for next in S2 isn't worth the risk of S1 having a callable hand. Although if they do have junk they may just decide to call next for you giving you 2 points. However with you having a possible loner it isn't out of the realm of possibility S1 holds a loner in black. Gotta order up here. Obviously S3 holds a loner and that could've easily been in S1's hand and it's close to a laydown with that holding in S1.

I also think that was a very poor pass by S1 R2. 3 spades 2 suited. I don't care that it's green with that score it's an automatic call.

RedDuke
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Unread post by RedDuke » Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:46 pm

jspectre wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 3:23 pm
Frankly, I don't understand why you wouldn't order up hearts, you have both bowers, and a void. Even if you have a near perfect diamonds loner you're still asking for S1 to have a bad enough hand that all he can do is pass. In this example S1 blows the call on spades, and this lets S2 call next. As for the loner, I have stopped trying hands such as these, unless we're done 8-3 or something, and we need a miracle.
That's a very solid point.

The reason for the R1 pass is that I was betting that S1 would be more inclined to try a diamonds call (next) unless he had something killer in reverse next. I know that he probably won't have anything in next but he might bet that his partner does.

It's true that S1 did blow the spades call considering what his partner had but I don't really blame him considering that is a pretty weak hand to cross the river on.

With that said, with S1 not knowing where any of the bowers are and him having voids in both clubs and diamonds, that's just asking for S2 to call a loner so spades would be a decent defensive call.

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