7-2-21 OE Friday #1 Many questions, few answers

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Dlan
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7-2-21 OE Friday #1 Many questions, few answers

Unread post by Dlan » Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:44 am

False card, turndown right, pull trump? Just trying to follow the logic in this hands play

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irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:01 am

Serious mistake to lead that JD when the maker he has no off suit ACES. A leap of faith to think his partner . . .

By leading the Right, you just now reduced your partner's helping win that third trick by 40 - 50%. It would be interesting to hear from the maker what his strategy was for leading the JD???????

IRISHWOLF

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Mon Jul 05, 2021 4:19 pm

I'm not seeing a lot of logic to be had in this hand. You can't turn down a jack when you have right+1 and block only one suit, and I'm wondering if W can afford to pass here with his hand, instead of calling spades with just the right. Sometimes you turn down the right because you block next (and possibly all suits) with low trump+ace, but in my experience, you're more likely to turn down a bower due to a mostly red hand.

Seat 2 makes the correct call, and should assume his p has red or can help him get their point, but leading the right makes no sense for a number of reasons, the maker has no ace to follow it up, and clubs hasn't been led yet. The dealer turned down the jack of clubs, so it should be assumed that he can trump a club, but the maker doesn't give him the opportunity.

However, due to the dealer's poor decision to turn down the jack, the maker's team is already euchred. He leads the club and instead of seeing that his p is void, he sees the K of clubs, and E takes the trick with the ace. From here it's an easy decision to lead trump and potentially knock out both bowers, rather than leading the ace back to the maker, when he was void.

Oh, I also don't like that E leads the K in his suited AK, he's only setting up his partner to be tricked, the dealer isn't going to be the one to play off on that card when his partner is the maker.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Jul 05, 2021 4:34 pm

Suppose then it does work like you say, the maker has QC 9C & JD, he gets his point regardless if KD or AS is led on trick 4 as he has JD/QC. The point is the maker should not lead the JD

":However, due to the dealer's poor decision to turn down the jack, the maker's team is already euchred. He leads the club and instead of seeing that his p is void, he sees the K of clubs, and E takes the trick with the ace. From here it's an easy decision to lead trump and potentially knock out both bowers, rather than leading the ace back to the maker, when he was void."

Turn down a bower and keep two lowly spades is nuts.

IRISHWOLF

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Mon Jul 05, 2021 4:41 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 4:34 pm
Suppose then it does work like you say, the maker has QC 9C & JD, he gets his point regardless if KD or AS is led on trick 4 as he has JD/QC. The point is the maker should not lead the JD

":However, due to the dealer's poor decision to turn down the jack, the maker's team is already euchred. He leads the club and instead of seeing that his p is void, he sees the K of clubs, and E takes the trick with the ace. From here it's an easy decision to lead trump and potentially knock out both bowers, rather than leading the ace back to the maker, when he was void."

Turn down a bower and keep two lowly spades is nuts.

IRISHWOLF
Irish, the maker is euchred if S3 correctly leads the KD. That trump lead knocks out all of the makers trump, and leaves only S1's 10D remaining for the final trick, and the euchre. However, you are correct that leading the JD is the wrong play, but the dealer not being able to trump a club will lose them the hand, and that results from him turning down a playable hand.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:53 pm

Yes, you are correct, I over looked the other small diamond. That is IF the KD is led. A big IF, I do not see many players willing to do that.

rish, the maker is euchred if S3 correctly leads the KD. That trump lead knocks out all of the makers trump, and leaves only S1's 10D remaining for the final trick, and the euchre.

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:36 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:53 pm
Yes, you are correct, I over looked the other small diamond. That is IF the KD is led. A big IF, I do not see many players willing to do that.
If we're talking about good players, then leading the KD feels like the only correct play to me. It's not unreasonable to assume the maker has a marginal hand, and it's not unreasonable to assume the dealer has at least one bower in red. I don't have the data to back this up, but I have to assume there's a greater chance for a euchre with a trump lead in this spot, than leading back a boss card in a suit that the maker is void in. It's reasonable to assume the dealer may only hold the left, and that the maker now only holds the right, and if the dealer has a 2nd trump, then a euchre is very unlikely, if not impossible.

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