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6-11 hand #2
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Tbolt65
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6-11 hand #2
Trump needs to be lead here with Maker having three trump with a suited Ace.
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irishwolf
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So how true is this statement, generally yes but it is not as statistically 100% as you suggest. Consider J J KC is out against you and Heart doubleton (KH dblt your euchred with a lead of trump).
In addition, you lead an opponent having J J or J K can clean you out with diamonds or spades and you have NOTHING! That against one opponent have guarded Bower and the other having the other bower. So both bowers split is about 6.5% at the same time none guarded.
Here you look for your partner to have any of the three trumps as the 10H is just like a trump being led. Four unknown trump partner help or 23.4% has NO trump. And that if 10H is trumped by an opponent, S2 could have the AS if led. An interesting hand to evaluate played both ways!
Obvious observation after all the cards have been played trump should have been played. So look at Hand 5, game 3, for example. Not as clear cut as you contend. There is more to consider.
However, do you have facts that prove leading trump in this SITUATION is actually better considering 8567 hands still unknown? You might be right or you might not be.
IRISHWOLF
In addition, you lead an opponent having J J or J K can clean you out with diamonds or spades and you have NOTHING! That against one opponent have guarded Bower and the other having the other bower. So both bowers split is about 6.5% at the same time none guarded.
Here you look for your partner to have any of the three trumps as the 10H is just like a trump being led. Four unknown trump partner help or 23.4% has NO trump. And that if 10H is trumped by an opponent, S2 could have the AS if led. An interesting hand to evaluate played both ways!
Obvious observation after all the cards have been played trump should have been played. So look at Hand 5, game 3, for example. Not as clear cut as you contend. There is more to consider.
However, do you have facts that prove leading trump in this SITUATION is actually better considering 8567 hands still unknown? You might be right or you might not be.
IRISHWOLF
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Tbolt65
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Leading trump here with this this configuration, regardless of what's shown here gives the making team the best shot to win 1 point or march in nearly every scenario. By not doing so, you are allowing scenario's to be created against you that get's the team euchred and miss out on two points. You are not only pulling trump to clear them out, you are also setting up your Ace and possible doubleton to force out the remaining trump or take a trick. Leading trump here is far, far, far more advantageous than not leading trump over all. Sure there will be times you may be euchred because those trumps are stacked on one side or the other(seat 1 or 3). Leading trump out weighs any scenario and dominates the correct way to play in every single one of them, with the exception of course of those small times trump is stacked against you. Even then, you can still make point if opponents play it incorrectly.
Tbolt65
Edward
Tbolt65
Edward
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jspectre
- Posts: 230
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I'm leading trump here 100% of the time, I would much rather depend on my partner for an ace, and double leading hearts here can just give the opponents a chance to play off, and deny us a critical point. It's also a very rare scenario where your partner can take a trick with a low trump on the second heart lead, and if he is holding no trump or only a bower, then you know you made the correct lead. In my experience these hands play out much better with a trump lead, because I used to be hesitant to lead one of my remaining two trump without a bower. The only exception here is if I think I can walk a solo green ace, and then hit my partners void with a low next suit, but I would prefer to just lead in most cases, and then I can play accordingly and throw off if I have to, etc.
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irishwolf
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Have you done hands to Prove your case? Played both ways, where are the facts? I AM CHALLENGING YOU ON THIS STATEMENT (because I think you are WRONG!):
Ed says, "Leading trump here with this this configuration, regardless of what's shown here gives the making team the best shot to win 1 point or march in nearly every scenario. By not doing so, you are allowing scenario's to be created against you that get's the team euchred and miss out on two points. You are not only pulling trump to clear them out, you are also setting up your Ace and possible doubleton to force out the remaining trump or take a trick. Leading trump here is far, far, far more advantageous than not leading trump over all. Sure there will be times you may be euchred because those trumps are stacked on one side or the other(seat 1 or 3). Leading trump out weighs any scenario and dominates the correct way to play in every single one of them, with the exception of course of those small times trump is stacked against you."
Ed says, "Leading trump here with this this configuration, regardless of what's shown here gives the making team the best shot to win 1 point or march in nearly every scenario. By not doing so, you are allowing scenario's to be created against you that get's the team euchred and miss out on two points. You are not only pulling trump to clear them out, you are also setting up your Ace and possible doubleton to force out the remaining trump or take a trick. Leading trump here is far, far, far more advantageous than not leading trump over all. Sure there will be times you may be euchred because those trumps are stacked on one side or the other(seat 1 or 3). Leading trump out weighs any scenario and dominates the correct way to play in every single one of them, with the exception of course of those small times trump is stacked against you."
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Wes (aka the legend)
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I would bet that Edward is right but I agree with Wolf that we don't really know.
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irishwolf
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Oh YES I do know!
But Ed, have you done hands to Prove your case? Played both ways, where are the facts? I AM CHALLENGING YOU ON THIS STATEMENT (because I KNOW you are WRONG!).
You will do no worst leading the AH from AH/10H or AH/9H once trump the first trick.
And once the AH has taken a trick, the 10H will result in more points, fewer euchres. If the QC is led to trick 2, the JS/JC or JC/KC and when the JC is buried, the JS/KC results in about 95% being euchred (S2 would have to have the AS). But not nearly this high a euchre rate leading the 10H to trick 3 once the AH wins a trick. That 10H is now just like a trump lead and Signals or S2 to HIT it hard.
And I pulled out all hands with S2 having JC/JS or JC/KC but not those with JC/10C for my Data except JC/10C with AS. There is no guarantee of a euchre, even with one opponent having JC/JS does not result in a euchre unless the dealer leads. Dealer can trump any lead of Spades (has not been led in this Hand).
What ED fails to get is that any trump with S2 (~66%) results the majority of the time in a point. With 4CX, S2 has no trump approximately 24%.
But where is Ed's data to back up his statements? Once again, those GUT Human probabilities will fail you. Ed you do too many gut probabilities. Go do some Hands!
However, if you have AH/KH or AH/QH, then leading trump is best. There are Exceptions to the Standard practices and methodologies in Euchre. Go find them!
That's my story and I am sticking to it!
IRISHWOLF
But Ed, have you done hands to Prove your case? Played both ways, where are the facts? I AM CHALLENGING YOU ON THIS STATEMENT (because I KNOW you are WRONG!).
You will do no worst leading the AH from AH/10H or AH/9H once trump the first trick.
And once the AH has taken a trick, the 10H will result in more points, fewer euchres. If the QC is led to trick 2, the JS/JC or JC/KC and when the JC is buried, the JS/KC results in about 95% being euchred (S2 would have to have the AS). But not nearly this high a euchre rate leading the 10H to trick 3 once the AH wins a trick. That 10H is now just like a trump lead and Signals or S2 to HIT it hard.
And I pulled out all hands with S2 having JC/JS or JC/KC but not those with JC/10C for my Data except JC/10C with AS. There is no guarantee of a euchre, even with one opponent having JC/JS does not result in a euchre unless the dealer leads. Dealer can trump any lead of Spades (has not been led in this Hand).
What ED fails to get is that any trump with S2 (~66%) results the majority of the time in a point. With 4CX, S2 has no trump approximately 24%.
But where is Ed's data to back up his statements? Once again, those GUT Human probabilities will fail you. Ed you do too many gut probabilities. Go do some Hands!
However, if you have AH/KH or AH/QH, then leading trump is best. There are Exceptions to the Standard practices and methodologies in Euchre. Go find them!
That's my story and I am sticking to it!
IRISHWOLF
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irishwolf
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Where are your facts jspectre » Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:06 pm
"I'm leading trump here 100% of the time, I would much rather depend on my partner for an ace, and double leading hearts here can just give the opponents a chance to play off, and deny us a critical point. It's also a very rare scenario where your partner can take a trick with a low trump on the second heart lead, and if he is holding no trump or only a bower, then you know you made the correct lead."
More Gut probabilities that go no where! Your experience? Where are the hands to support your assumption, because you are wrong as well.
IRISHWOLF
"I'm leading trump here 100% of the time, I would much rather depend on my partner for an ace, and double leading hearts here can just give the opponents a chance to play off, and deny us a critical point. It's also a very rare scenario where your partner can take a trick with a low trump on the second heart lead, and if he is holding no trump or only a bower, then you know you made the correct lead."
More Gut probabilities that go no where! Your experience? Where are the hands to support your assumption, because you are wrong as well.
IRISHWOLF
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jspectre
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That's just my experience, I used to do it your way, and I have seen a dramatic improvement in winning these calls after I just started leading trump with 3 and just about any ace. Hell, I even lead trump instead of throwing a two suited combo that doesn't necessarily have a chance to give me a boss card. The times where I am euchred it's generally just because my opponents hold both bowers, with at least one of them having two trump. Sorry, I don't have any hard evidence for you, but in your honor I will revert to playing it your way, and see what I come up with.
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Tbolt65
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Tbolt65 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 3:27 pmLeading trump here with this this configuration, regardless of what's shown here gives the making team the best shot to win 1 point or march in nearly every scenario. By not doing so, you are allowing scenario's to be created against you that get's the team euchred and miss out on two points.
Tbolt65
Edward
Highlighted and underlined for emphasis above. Why do you want to create situations where you give the other team a chance to ping pong you, put you in the crossfire?? Empty their trump or reduce it so they can't do that and can't euchre you. Plus the times your partner has the bare right or left protected your are more likely to get two points. It's not hard. At worst you have to depend on your partner for a doubleton from the opponents and hope he saved the right one.
Tbolt65
Edward
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irishwolf
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How ignorant to state this:
Ed STATES, "Leading trump here with this this configuration, regardless of what's shown here gives the making team the best shot to win 1 point or march in nearly every scenario. By not doing so, you are allowing scenario's to be created against you that get's the team euchred and miss out on two points."
Tbolt65
Edward
"Highlighted and underlined for emphasis above. Why do you want to create situations where you give the other team a chance to ping pong you, put you in the crossfire?? Empty their trump or reduce it so they can't do that and can't euchre you. Plus the times your partner has the bare right or left protected your are more likely to get two points. It's not hard. At worst you have to depend on your partner for a doubleton from the opponents and hope he saved the right one."
Now don't get me wrong, I have a lot of respect for Ed's play, a very good player. But you do have some areas where you tend to refute FACTS. Know the hand, the Maker is not going for two points. For a sweep you have to lead trump and that is only about 12 to 17% will you get two points. In this hand, you are looking to avoid a euchre and score a point and move on. Of course you are depending on your partner because 66% he can help you with a trump on the 10H 2nd lead (just like a trump lead will draw two trump most of the time, force the KC or a bower). Euchre is all about getting your partner involved. And players make mistakes, leading trump only helps when the trump is split and the KH is still out to win your 10H. You WILL NOT be euchred as much playing it the way I suggest.
So do what you want. It matters little to me, continue on in your old ways. I gave you the facts, did the hands, and it is statistically significant as well.
But here is what P - - - es me off about these discussions on OE. I have Never exaggerated my comments, results or probabilities. I have always tried to contribute and post with Statistically significant results for the benefit of the readers of OE. And I give a rats a - - if believed or not.
I don't like wasting my time. Thus, I am done with commenting on OE because people are set in their ways and never have an open mind to consider other than their own short comings to improve their game. Only you as a player can improve your lot. And if you don't believe what the teller is saying, then do some hands of your own to find out the real Facts. I don't have time for arguments, or trying to win an argument and B.S. that continues, post, after post, after post. Opinions are just that opinions and usually not factual. I am not mad, just tired of discussions without facts.
I have too many other irons in the fire, and moving on.
IRISHWOLF
Ed STATES, "Leading trump here with this this configuration, regardless of what's shown here gives the making team the best shot to win 1 point or march in nearly every scenario. By not doing so, you are allowing scenario's to be created against you that get's the team euchred and miss out on two points."
Tbolt65
Edward
"Highlighted and underlined for emphasis above. Why do you want to create situations where you give the other team a chance to ping pong you, put you in the crossfire?? Empty their trump or reduce it so they can't do that and can't euchre you. Plus the times your partner has the bare right or left protected your are more likely to get two points. It's not hard. At worst you have to depend on your partner for a doubleton from the opponents and hope he saved the right one."
Now don't get me wrong, I have a lot of respect for Ed's play, a very good player. But you do have some areas where you tend to refute FACTS. Know the hand, the Maker is not going for two points. For a sweep you have to lead trump and that is only about 12 to 17% will you get two points. In this hand, you are looking to avoid a euchre and score a point and move on. Of course you are depending on your partner because 66% he can help you with a trump on the 10H 2nd lead (just like a trump lead will draw two trump most of the time, force the KC or a bower). Euchre is all about getting your partner involved. And players make mistakes, leading trump only helps when the trump is split and the KH is still out to win your 10H. You WILL NOT be euchred as much playing it the way I suggest.
So do what you want. It matters little to me, continue on in your old ways. I gave you the facts, did the hands, and it is statistically significant as well.
But here is what P - - - es me off about these discussions on OE. I have Never exaggerated my comments, results or probabilities. I have always tried to contribute and post with Statistically significant results for the benefit of the readers of OE. And I give a rats a - - if believed or not.
I don't like wasting my time. Thus, I am done with commenting on OE because people are set in their ways and never have an open mind to consider other than their own short comings to improve their game. Only you as a player can improve your lot. And if you don't believe what the teller is saying, then do some hands of your own to find out the real Facts. I don't have time for arguments, or trying to win an argument and B.S. that continues, post, after post, after post. Opinions are just that opinions and usually not factual. I am not mad, just tired of discussions without facts.
I have too many other irons in the fire, and moving on.
IRISHWOLF
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Tbolt65
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I am tired tonight but I only did 10 hands but this is what I Got so far.
Not leading Trump Vs. Leading trump from the maker. Played each hand both ways, with the same cards and leads.
Hand 1 +1 NLT +1 Leading Trump
Hand 2 -2 NLT +1 Leading Trump
Hand 3 +1 NLT +1 Leading Trump
Hand 4 +1 NLT +1 Leading trump
Hand 5 -2NLT +1 Leading trump
Hand 6 +1 NLT +1 Leading Trump
Hand 7 -2 NLT -2 Leading Trump
Hand 8 +2NLT +2Leading Trump
Hand 9 -2 NLT +1 Leading Trump
Hand 10 +1 NLT +1 Leading Trump
-----------------------------------------------------
-1 NLT Totals +8points Total Leading trump
for a total of a +9 differential in favor of Leading Trump. With a small sample size we can already see that leading trump saves you from more euchre's than NLT. Wait until we get to the hands where there will start to be more marches for the Leading trump vs only getting one for NLT. There will start to be some euchre's happening too for leading trump but not nearly as much as you will see by not leading trump the euchre's will keep stacking up as well.
To further what I have said and maintained. Not leading trump only works in certain scenarios where it out performs, Leading trump. These scenarios are very small data set in the over all combinations and make up of cards. Leading trump by and large will be more effective at promoting/solidifying 1 point hands and they will be getting more +2 point hands in the long run. Leading trump will get euchred. It however not get euchred enough to make it a lesser play or inferior than Not leading trump. NLT will rule the day in getting set more often and getting less +2point hands. Thus making Leading trump the most optimal play in the long run in "Most" situations".
Tbolt65
Edward
Not leading Trump Vs. Leading trump from the maker. Played each hand both ways, with the same cards and leads.
Hand 1 +1 NLT +1 Leading Trump
Hand 2 -2 NLT +1 Leading Trump
Hand 3 +1 NLT +1 Leading Trump
Hand 4 +1 NLT +1 Leading trump
Hand 5 -2NLT +1 Leading trump
Hand 6 +1 NLT +1 Leading Trump
Hand 7 -2 NLT -2 Leading Trump
Hand 8 +2NLT +2Leading Trump
Hand 9 -2 NLT +1 Leading Trump
Hand 10 +1 NLT +1 Leading Trump
-----------------------------------------------------
-1 NLT Totals +8points Total Leading trump
for a total of a +9 differential in favor of Leading Trump. With a small sample size we can already see that leading trump saves you from more euchre's than NLT. Wait until we get to the hands where there will start to be more marches for the Leading trump vs only getting one for NLT. There will start to be some euchre's happening too for leading trump but not nearly as much as you will see by not leading trump the euchre's will keep stacking up as well.
To further what I have said and maintained. Not leading trump only works in certain scenarios where it out performs, Leading trump. These scenarios are very small data set in the over all combinations and make up of cards. Leading trump by and large will be more effective at promoting/solidifying 1 point hands and they will be getting more +2 point hands in the long run. Leading trump will get euchred. It however not get euchred enough to make it a lesser play or inferior than Not leading trump. NLT will rule the day in getting set more often and getting less +2point hands. Thus making Leading trump the most optimal play in the long run in "Most" situations".
Tbolt65
Edward
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irishwolf
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I think you have the 10 hand kitchen table syndrome. From 75 hands here some results:
DEALER has AC QC 9C AH 10H KS DISCARDED
First trick was trumped by the Dealer (S4).
First trick as follows, see OE this hand:
S1 9D
S2 TD
S3 AD
S4 9C played for all the following tricks given below.
Then with 15 unknown cards, randomly dealt by ones, the following hands resulted in Euchres when trump was led but scored a point when the AH was led followed by leading the 10H. Samples played were 75, but when dealer’s partner (S2) had JC/JS, JC/KC or JC/10 with either AS he ordered. Those hands only for S2 were then pulled out (5 of 75 for S2 only and remained for S1&S3) Thus we now have a sample of 70 net hands for the results. In addition JC JS KC, JC JS 10C were pulled out for any player but none were observed for 75 hands.
So here are SIX hands that resulted in a point when AH was led to the 2nd trick vs Trump (QC) being led to the 2nd trick. Played as I would have played if in each position (seat):
#1
S1 QH JD TS AS
S2 KD TC KH 9H
S3 KC QD QS JC
S4 AH TH QC AC
#2
S1 9H QH QS KD
S2 9S KC TC QD
S3 KH JS JC AS
S4 AH TH QC AC
#3
S1 9H 9S QD AS
S2 JH QH QS KD
S3 KH TC JS KC
S4 AH TH QC AC
#4
S1 QH 9S JD QD
S2 9H TC JH TS
S3 KC KD AS JC
S4 AH TH QC AC
Or if JC is led to trick 3, same results:
S1 QH 9S JD QD
S2 9H TC TS JH
S3 KC JC KD AS JC
S4 AH QC AC TH
HAND 5
S1 JH QD KD AS
S2 TS KC TC QS
S3 QH JS JC JD
S4 AH TH QC AC
HAND 6
S1 JH QD 9S QS
S2 QH KH TS KD
S3 9H TC JC KC
S4 AH TH QC AC
DEALER has AC QC 9C AH 10H KS DISCARDED
First trick was trumped by the Dealer (S4).
First trick as follows, see OE this hand:
S1 9D
S2 TD
S3 AD
S4 9C played for all the following tricks given below.
Then with 15 unknown cards, randomly dealt by ones, the following hands resulted in Euchres when trump was led but scored a point when the AH was led followed by leading the 10H. Samples played were 75, but when dealer’s partner (S2) had JC/JS, JC/KC or JC/10 with either AS he ordered. Those hands only for S2 were then pulled out (5 of 75 for S2 only and remained for S1&S3) Thus we now have a sample of 70 net hands for the results. In addition JC JS KC, JC JS 10C were pulled out for any player but none were observed for 75 hands.
So here are SIX hands that resulted in a point when AH was led to the 2nd trick vs Trump (QC) being led to the 2nd trick. Played as I would have played if in each position (seat):
#1
S1 QH JD TS AS
S2 KD TC KH 9H
S3 KC QD QS JC
S4 AH TH QC AC
#2
S1 9H QH QS KD
S2 9S KC TC QD
S3 KH JS JC AS
S4 AH TH QC AC
#3
S1 9H 9S QD AS
S2 JH QH QS KD
S3 KH TC JS KC
S4 AH TH QC AC
#4
S1 QH 9S JD QD
S2 9H TC JH TS
S3 KC KD AS JC
S4 AH TH QC AC
Or if JC is led to trick 3, same results:
S1 QH 9S JD QD
S2 9H TC TS JH
S3 KC JC KD AS JC
S4 AH QC AC TH
HAND 5
S1 JH QD KD AS
S2 TS KC TC QS
S3 QH JS JC JD
S4 AH TH QC AC
HAND 6
S1 JH QD 9S QS
S2 QH KH TS KD
S3 9H TC JC KC
S4 AH TH QC AC
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irishwolf
- Posts: 1314
- Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm
Ed, RE: HAND AC QC TC AH TH (KS DISCARD)
THE KITCHEN TABLE 10 HAND SYNDROME:
Did you even think that your sample might be Biased? Did you think about the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS or just base all your comments on 10 hands and Gut probability? 10 hands, get serious!
You had one euchre leading trump and 90% making a point!
Do you you even know the Range of one opponent having JS/JC, JC/KC or JC KH/QH/JH DOUBLETON that all these result in a euchre. Not to mention, JC buried JS/KC or even JC buried JS with KH/QH/JH DOUBLETON?
Did you consider when S2 has a trump 75% and sometimes has AS (28%). This is a partnership is it not?
Do you not get that all those combination result in a Euchre when trump is Led?
IRISHWOLF
THE KITCHEN TABLE 10 HAND SYNDROME:
Did you even think that your sample might be Biased? Did you think about the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS or just base all your comments on 10 hands and Gut probability? 10 hands, get serious!
You had one euchre leading trump and 90% making a point!
Do you you even know the Range of one opponent having JS/JC, JC/KC or JC KH/QH/JH DOUBLETON that all these result in a euchre. Not to mention, JC buried JS/KC or even JC buried JS with KH/QH/JH DOUBLETON?
Did you consider when S2 has a trump 75% and sometimes has AS (28%). This is a partnership is it not?
Do you not get that all those combination result in a Euchre when trump is Led?
IRISHWOLF
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Tbolt65
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- Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
- Location: Las Vegas
This is for everyone. Raise your hand if you thought after ten hands that I was done and using that that totally back what I was saying??? We already know one answer. I'm asking the rest of you guys. You don't have to say how or what you feel on this subject. I'm just asking if you thought I was trying to justify my position based solely on only 10 hands?
I said this,
"I am tired tonight but I only did 10 hands but this is what I Got so far." "
.... With a small sample size we can already see that leading trump saves you from more euchre's than NLT. Wait until we get to the hands where there will start to be more marches for the Leading trump vs only getting one for NLT. There will start to be some euchre's happening too for leading trump but not nearly as much as you will see by not leading trump the euchre's will keep stacking up as well."
As for basing everything on ten hands? No it was only a window/indication and this is not for me. It's for You and everyone else that thinks not leading trump out performs, leading trump with that hand make up. I've seen what works and what doesn't work. I am not saying not leading trump doesn't work.(I used to play that way, you think I regressed to lesser playing just because I "feel" that it's right?)I am saying it's not as efficient as Leading trump. Like I said before. By not leading trump. You create situations that hinder your team from making 1 point and very, very , very rarely make 2 points. You get euchred more and you lose out on other 2 point situations by not leading trump. At the same time by leading trump there will be certain scenario's that euchre your team. However Leading trump is still the proper/best/most efficient play in the long run. This is not based off 10 hands. I only did 10 hands to get my foot in the door. To show how things are shaping up and to show/foretell on what it will look like when more hands are played and shown.
There are a lot of areas in euchre that are so minute and small that Wes calls these statistically insignificant. I beg to differ. I believe the smallest edge is a huge difference maker not only on it's own in the long run at the highest levels of play in euchre but also cumulatively with other such area's in euchre where it's very thin difference. It all adds up. I am hyper analytical and anal retentive in these area's of play. Because I want to have the most success I can in every possible scenario and at all times.
Tbolt65
Edward
I said this,
"I am tired tonight but I only did 10 hands but this is what I Got so far." "
.... With a small sample size we can already see that leading trump saves you from more euchre's than NLT. Wait until we get to the hands where there will start to be more marches for the Leading trump vs only getting one for NLT. There will start to be some euchre's happening too for leading trump but not nearly as much as you will see by not leading trump the euchre's will keep stacking up as well."
As for basing everything on ten hands? No it was only a window/indication and this is not for me. It's for You and everyone else that thinks not leading trump out performs, leading trump with that hand make up. I've seen what works and what doesn't work. I am not saying not leading trump doesn't work.(I used to play that way, you think I regressed to lesser playing just because I "feel" that it's right?)I am saying it's not as efficient as Leading trump. Like I said before. By not leading trump. You create situations that hinder your team from making 1 point and very, very , very rarely make 2 points. You get euchred more and you lose out on other 2 point situations by not leading trump. At the same time by leading trump there will be certain scenario's that euchre your team. However Leading trump is still the proper/best/most efficient play in the long run. This is not based off 10 hands. I only did 10 hands to get my foot in the door. To show how things are shaping up and to show/foretell on what it will look like when more hands are played and shown.
There are a lot of areas in euchre that are so minute and small that Wes calls these statistically insignificant. I beg to differ. I believe the smallest edge is a huge difference maker not only on it's own in the long run at the highest levels of play in euchre but also cumulatively with other such area's in euchre where it's very thin difference. It all adds up. I am hyper analytical and anal retentive in these area's of play. Because I want to have the most success I can in every possible scenario and at all times.
Tbolt65
Edward
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irishwolf
- Posts: 1314
- Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm
ED,
One thing that is critical is making sure we are working on the same Hand.
The first trick is already set where Dealer trumps the AD 9S 10S with the 9C, 9 cards removed from play. 15 cards are now unknown and dealt accordingly. S2 hands of JC/JS, and JC/KC, he assists, and those hands are pulled out only for S2 and not S1/S4. I also suggest all hands are shuffled (riffle) dealt out in 1s or randomization of the cards which avoids clumping, as well (4 CARDS TO S1,S2, S3, 3 to the Stock = 15). You also had too many sweeps in that 10 card sample.
I gave Wes the proper way to test for each hand combinations are then played for and against the Dealer. So one deal of 15 cards you have three results of a point (or sweep) or a euchre. This way you get a complete picture of what is going on. GOOD LUCK!
~IRISHWOLF
Tbolt65 » Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:51 am
I am tired tonight but I only did 10 hands but this is what I Got so far.
Not leading Trump Vs. Leading trump from the maker. Played each hand both ways, with the same cards and leads
One thing that is critical is making sure we are working on the same Hand.
The first trick is already set where Dealer trumps the AD 9S 10S with the 9C, 9 cards removed from play. 15 cards are now unknown and dealt accordingly. S2 hands of JC/JS, and JC/KC, he assists, and those hands are pulled out only for S2 and not S1/S4. I also suggest all hands are shuffled (riffle) dealt out in 1s or randomization of the cards which avoids clumping, as well (4 CARDS TO S1,S2, S3, 3 to the Stock = 15). You also had too many sweeps in that 10 card sample.
I gave Wes the proper way to test for each hand combinations are then played for and against the Dealer. So one deal of 15 cards you have three results of a point (or sweep) or a euchre. This way you get a complete picture of what is going on. GOOD LUCK!
~IRISHWOLF
Tbolt65 » Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:51 am
I am tired tonight but I only did 10 hands but this is what I Got so far.
Not leading Trump Vs. Leading trump from the maker. Played each hand both ways, with the same cards and leads
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jspectre
- Posts: 230
- Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:04 am
Despite my earlier comment, I don't have much of a horse in this race, but I did a bit of testing myself, and I was surprised to find that not leading trump can do just as well in most situations, and even win in a few stacked trump scenarios, like the one's Irish pointed out. However, it's also true that not leading trump can cost you in certain scenarios, but I don't think it's as one sided as I believed, and my anecdotal evidence proved unreliable. I don't know if Ed was using the exact same scenario as the first trick, with a KD discard, because his number of euchres while not leading is very high compared to what I witnessed in 30 or so hands. I think it's actually pretty close, so I would rather lead trump and not play a guessing game, but it's closer than I ever anticipated.
Edit: Actually, Irish, hands #2 and #6 don't count, those are both 3rd seat calls.
Edit: Actually, Irish, hands #2 and #6 don't count, those are both 3rd seat calls.
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Tbolt65
- Posts: 813
- Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
- Location: Las Vegas
From my previous post,jspectre wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 2:11 pmDespite my earlier comment, I don't have much of a horse in this race, but I did a bit of testing myself, and I was surprised to find that not leading trump can do just as well in most situations, and even win in a few stacked trump scenarios, like the one's Irish pointed out. However, it's also true that not leading trump can cost you in certain scenarios, but I don't think it's as one sided as I believed, and my anecdotal evidence proved unreliable. I don't know if Ed was using the exact same scenario as the first trick, with a KD discard, because his number of euchres while not leading is very high compared to what I witnessed in 30 or so hands. I think it's actually pretty close, so I would rather lead trump and not play a guessing game, but it's closer than I ever anticipated.
Edit: Actually, Irish, hands #2 and #6 don't count, those are both 3rd seat calls.
"There are a lot of areas in euchre that are so minute and small that Wes calls these statistically insignificant. I beg to differ. I believe the smallest edge is a huge difference maker not only on it's own in the long run at the highest levels of play in euchre but also cumulatively with other such area's in euchre where it's very thin difference. It all adds up. I am hyper analytical and anal retentive in these area's of play. Because I want to have the most success I can in every possible scenario and at all times."
Tbolt65
Edward
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jspectre
- Posts: 230
- Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:04 am
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irishwolf
- Posts: 1314
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LOL, don't need a horse only facts count. But I beg to differ with you on #2 & #6 quite right as he also had AD. But I let it ride! But #2 you are wrong, WAIT ON NEXT FOR THAT ONE AS HE ONLY HAS TWO TRUMPS..
I agree with your comments (see below). And of course leading trump will help when one opponent has a Bower and the other a Bower (even guarded). But you have to look at it statistically (One bower ~28% x one bower ~28% is about 7% of the time. Pretty darn low and even lower a guarded bower). I can with stand a euchre rate at that low percentage. And my point is, worst case, Law of Large Numbers, you break even. However, here is the thing, you have to do some "sensing", (the sniff test) is this the time to lead trump as they are siting on me, or is it don't lead trump my partner can help me. So I see that quite differently as to is it a guessing game. I do not always play it one way or another. As Gerry Blue use to say on Euchre Science, IT ALL DEPENDS!
Then to the comment Ed made, he likes to look at all angles even for a small statistical edge? I highly question that compared strategy to the importance of 'making trump" on 2nd round or even first round with a weak hand. That is where Euchre success exists not these bull s h i t close plays that could go this way or that way that might be close on statistical significance. Just my opinion! No one should ever post results on 10 hands, I will say that. 50 is the starting point. And if close, you better be doing 150 to 200 and put it to statistical test for significance.
~IRISHWOLF
Quoting, "Despite my earlier comment, I don't have much of a horse in this race, but I did a bit of testing myself, and I was surprised to find that not leading trump can do just as well in most situations, and even win in a few stacked trump scenarios, like the one's Irish pointed out. However, it's also true that not leading trump can cost you in certain scenarios, but I don't think it's as one sided as I believed, and my anecdotal evidence proved unreliable. I don't know if Ed was using the exact same scenario as the first trick, with a KD discard, because his number of euchres while not leading is very high compared to what I witnessed in 30 or so hands. I think it's actually pretty close, so I would rather lead trump and not play a guessing game, but it's closer than I ever anticipated.
Edit: Actually, Irish, hands #2 and #6 don't count, those are both 3rd seat calls.
I agree with your comments (see below). And of course leading trump will help when one opponent has a Bower and the other a Bower (even guarded). But you have to look at it statistically (One bower ~28% x one bower ~28% is about 7% of the time. Pretty darn low and even lower a guarded bower). I can with stand a euchre rate at that low percentage. And my point is, worst case, Law of Large Numbers, you break even. However, here is the thing, you have to do some "sensing", (the sniff test) is this the time to lead trump as they are siting on me, or is it don't lead trump my partner can help me. So I see that quite differently as to is it a guessing game. I do not always play it one way or another. As Gerry Blue use to say on Euchre Science, IT ALL DEPENDS!
Then to the comment Ed made, he likes to look at all angles even for a small statistical edge? I highly question that compared strategy to the importance of 'making trump" on 2nd round or even first round with a weak hand. That is where Euchre success exists not these bull s h i t close plays that could go this way or that way that might be close on statistical significance. Just my opinion! No one should ever post results on 10 hands, I will say that. 50 is the starting point. And if close, you better be doing 150 to 200 and put it to statistical test for significance.
~IRISHWOLF
Quoting, "Despite my earlier comment, I don't have much of a horse in this race, but I did a bit of testing myself, and I was surprised to find that not leading trump can do just as well in most situations, and even win in a few stacked trump scenarios, like the one's Irish pointed out. However, it's also true that not leading trump can cost you in certain scenarios, but I don't think it's as one sided as I believed, and my anecdotal evidence proved unreliable. I don't know if Ed was using the exact same scenario as the first trick, with a KD discard, because his number of euchres while not leading is very high compared to what I witnessed in 30 or so hands. I think it's actually pretty close, so I would rather lead trump and not play a guessing game, but it's closer than I ever anticipated.
Edit: Actually, Irish, hands #2 and #6 don't count, those are both 3rd seat calls.
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jspectre
- Posts: 230
- Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:04 am
Sorry, I actually meant #3, not number #2, but 2 bowers and 2 aces is still a pretty solid order, unless Wes is my partner and will order on nothing, I'm probably going to call that up. I was genuinely surprised how well leading the ace actually played out, I expected it to be euchred much more often than it was, but I really hate making that play instead of just leading trump and ripping the band-aid off.
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Wes (aka the legend)
- Posts: 1538
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If the differing outcomes between two competing strategies are not statistically significant then pretty much by definition these are not spots we should worry about. We need to worry about the real leaks in our game, the mistakes we are making that ARE statistically significant. Maybe Irishwolf found another one. We should be open to--and even excited about--that possibility.Tbolt65 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:36 am"There are a lot of areas in euchre that are so minute and small that Wes calls these statistically insignificant. I beg to differ. I believe the smallest edge is a huge difference maker not only on it's own in the long run at the highest levels of play in euchre but also cumulatively with other such area's in euchre where it's very thin difference. It all adds up. I am hyper analytical and anal retentive in these area's of play. Because I want to have the most success I can in every possible scenario and at all times."
Tbolt65
Edward
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jspectre
- Posts: 230
- Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:04 am
I did another 25 hands real quick and recorded it this time, probably should have kept track of it the first time, seeing as that was the point of this exercise, but enough about that. My results were fairly even, with an ever so slight edge to leading trump, but there's about an equal number of euchres that were the result of NLT vs. leading it, and vice versa. I think Ed's data was definitely skewed, not that he thought 10 hands was a substantial enough sample to justify his point, but the results should be much closer. Still, I think leading most likely has the edge due to potential marches, granted there was only one in this set of hands.
Leading trump came out to be +1 over not leading trump.
1 NLT +1 - LT +1
2 NLT -2 - LT +1
3 NLT +1 - LT +2
4 NLT +1 - LT -2
5 NLT +1 - LT +1
6 NLT -2 - LT +1
7 NLT +1 - LT +1
8 NLT +1 - LT +1
9 NLT +1 - LT +1
10 NLT +1 - LT -2
11 NLT +1 - LT +1
12 NLT +1 - LT +1
13 NLT +1 - LT -2
14 NLT +1 - LT +1
15 NLT +1 - LT -2
16 NLT +1 - LT +1
17 NLT +1 - LT +1
18 NLT +1 - LT +1
19 NLT +1 - LT +1
20 NLT -2 - LT -2
21 NLT +1 - LT +1
22 NLT -2 - LT +1
23 NLT +1 - LT +1
24 NLT -2 - LT +1
25 NLT +1 - LT +1
Leading trump came out to be +1 over not leading trump.
1 NLT +1 - LT +1
2 NLT -2 - LT +1
3 NLT +1 - LT +2
4 NLT +1 - LT -2
5 NLT +1 - LT +1
6 NLT -2 - LT +1
7 NLT +1 - LT +1
8 NLT +1 - LT +1
9 NLT +1 - LT +1
10 NLT +1 - LT -2
11 NLT +1 - LT +1
12 NLT +1 - LT +1
13 NLT +1 - LT -2
14 NLT +1 - LT +1
15 NLT +1 - LT -2
16 NLT +1 - LT +1
17 NLT +1 - LT +1
18 NLT +1 - LT +1
19 NLT +1 - LT +1
20 NLT -2 - LT -2
21 NLT +1 - LT +1
22 NLT -2 - LT +1
23 NLT +1 - LT +1
24 NLT -2 - LT +1
25 NLT +1 - LT +1
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irishwolf
- Posts: 1314
- Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm
Of course there will be more Marches because to get a march you have to lead trump. But as played the maker is looking for 1 point. I would not expect any Sweeps. Those euchres equate, 5 both ways. That one point march is NOT Statistically Significant.
But back to your comment about #2 & 6 do not count, lol, if S3 ordered he just got euchre. If not Maker made a point. So why does 3 matter, was the maker sitting on next? And we know for sure, that S2 does not have to assist with a strong partner, that was already Proven in previous Posts. That is why at S2, you shut up with a strong partner and you will observe a LOT OF LONERS!
But Ed had 3 more euchres, a 40% euchre rate for not leading trump vs 10% for leading trump.
So the question has to be for Ed to answer, do you Expect the euchre rate to continue at 40% for not leading and 10% for leading trump?
What do you think it will be? And what do expect those Marches to be?
You need to state those now before you do the hands?
You can't play Euchre well unless you know where you are going and what the results that you anticipate (or do you just guess?)??? At what expected euchre rate do make vs pass? And there is lots of strategy at various scores and situations you call knowing your chance and the alternatives give you no choice.
I have Never (at least in last several years) made trump without realizing my expect results: probability of getting euchred, a sweep, blocking (playing defense on offense), etc. etc. This hand, no way do I expect a March. If that so, then my partner should have assisted (because JC, JS, KC 10C, are all against you). It silly to even expect a sweep, IMO.
Ed said, ".... With a small sample size we can already see that leading trump saves you from more euchre's than NLT. "
~IRISHWOLF
But back to your comment about #2 & 6 do not count, lol, if S3 ordered he just got euchre. If not Maker made a point. So why does 3 matter, was the maker sitting on next? And we know for sure, that S2 does not have to assist with a strong partner, that was already Proven in previous Posts. That is why at S2, you shut up with a strong partner and you will observe a LOT OF LONERS!
But Ed had 3 more euchres, a 40% euchre rate for not leading trump vs 10% for leading trump.
So the question has to be for Ed to answer, do you Expect the euchre rate to continue at 40% for not leading and 10% for leading trump?
What do you think it will be? And what do expect those Marches to be?
You need to state those now before you do the hands?
You can't play Euchre well unless you know where you are going and what the results that you anticipate (or do you just guess?)??? At what expected euchre rate do make vs pass? And there is lots of strategy at various scores and situations you call knowing your chance and the alternatives give you no choice.
I have Never (at least in last several years) made trump without realizing my expect results: probability of getting euchred, a sweep, blocking (playing defense on offense), etc. etc. This hand, no way do I expect a March. If that so, then my partner should have assisted (because JC, JS, KC 10C, are all against you). It silly to even expect a sweep, IMO.
Ed said, ".... With a small sample size we can already see that leading trump saves you from more euchre's than NLT. "
~IRISHWOLF
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jspectre
- Posts: 230
- Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:04 am
I admit that marches aren't necessarily the overall point here, but if both options are nearly identical, then a chance to score 2 should give leading the edge, depending on what we can expect that percentage to be. I only recall one or two hands where my partner held the right (and couldn't make a call) and one of them was a march. Now, I can concede that both bowers + 2 aces still needs the person being ordered to have one of said aces or to only have 2 trump, it's not foolproof, and an expert partner can call the 2nd round hand better, but are you saying that it's also agreed upon that 2 trump + left and green ace "(AD) KH TC JS KC" is also a no call? I believe that sort of hand has quite a good chance of making it with a QC up card, and I could be doing my partner a disservice if they make a next call we're both weaker in than we would have been for the turned down suit.
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irishwolf
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Hand #3, the Dealer made his point because S3 trumped the 2nd lead, 10H, and now has the JS/KC vs Dealer AC/QC and has to lead into the maker. Just how the cards fell on that one. If S3 orders, he's euchred. I think I had one also with Right + 2 and he made a point (S4).
YA AMAZINGLY!
You might get a march, but it's not about Sweeps as I have already pointed out.
IRISHWOLF
YA AMAZINGLY!
You might get a march, but it's not about Sweeps as I have already pointed out.
IRISHWOLF
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Tbolt65
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I don't know the percentages, so I can't give you one. I just know that leading trump how ever small or large that gap is, is going to ensure more more +1 points be made(that means that by not leading trump you set your team is what I'm saying) reduces euchre's although you still do get euchred leading trump and also have more sweeps/marches than not leading trump. Not leading trump, nearly gets you no sweeps, It will get you some though but not as many as leading trump. You will create more euchre's scenario's against your team so that's more set's. That's what I have maintained and that's what I stand by. How ever small or large that gap is. Leading trump will be on top.
Tbolt65
Edward
Tbolt65
Edward