5-28 hand #6

[Tbolt65]

Let it be? Call something else or Jump the Fence?



https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

[Wes (aka the legend)]

Let it be? Call something else or Jump the Fence?


https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

The choice is between Pass, call hearts or call Next. Honestly I can see a good argument for either choice. You know me I don't like passing in this spot up 4-1 when I don't block any suits HOWEVER one could argue for passing as S1 does have decent defense against all possible calls. He has 2 off aces vs a spade call or diamond call, and vs a heart call he has AhKh+ an off ace. I'd have to respect that argument since I can't prove them wrong.

As far as the actual call, I'm fine with the maker calling hearts. Good luck on anyone proving a Next call with no trump is better. So if we're calling something here a hearts call is defensible in my book.

That said, when we are P's I'm calling Next here as that fits our 3S-R1 bag strategy better, and I don't really worry about whether passing is better than calling Next. EVEN IF there are some particular hands where passing has a higher EV than calling, I'm still calling to preserve the integrity of my range. I want my P to always know what my pass from S1-R2 means (I have at least reverse Next blocked). There's value in my P being able to read my hand well.

For example:



https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

If My P understood my range in that spot he would trump as high as possible on 2nd street to secure the euchre. Instead he plays off taking an unnecessary risk. It all worked out anyways, but that's not the point.

[irishwolf]

To me, it makes no sense for S3 to win the KD lead. Let S4 trump

[Tbolt65]

To me, it makes no sense for S3 to win the KD lead. Let S4 trump

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.


I see value here on two front's. Let's say seat 3 over takes seat 1's king of diamonds with the Ace of diamonds. There are two plays they can make. 1 Lead the Left back or two, re-lead the 9diamond and force trump out of seat 4 and keep the lead to Seat 1. Le'ts say seat 3 play low diamond and Seat 4 takes with trump. There is a chance they can still lead trump and make any help seat 3 coulda had null.

What happened here is that Seat 3 did go with the Ace and it didn't work as we see and seat 4 takes with trump. fails to lead trump. That's his mistake. There are other mistake here. It's not a bad one but it's a logical one. Seat 3 trumps the with the Left the spade lead. They however lead back a club that Seat 1 sloughed off on. It was the Queen of club. Now Seat 3 leads back a club and it's a fresh suit and it's reasonable to try to lead it back to the make so that he has a safe card to trump with out fear of being over trumped. However as we see, he has another club unfortunately. A re-lead of diamonds would allow surely Seat 1 an opportunity to trump, but opens him up to be over trumped by seat 2 who is also out of trump. Generally jumping the fence the maker is going to have three or more trump or let's say Right-A thru Right-Queen. This isn't the case here.

Three mistakes in my book, seat 1 risky jumping the fence, Seat 4, not leading trump. Seat 3 partial mistake of not leading diamond back, although the club lead is not with out merit.


Tbolt65
Edward

[Wes (aka the legend)]

Three mistakes in my book, seat 1 risky jumping the fence, Seat 4, not leading trump. Seat 3 partial mistake of not leading diamond back, although the club lead is not with out merit.


Tbolt65
Edward

S4 leading the Right on trick 2 would be very poor play. Leading the Right has no chance of cleaning out the maker and S4 has no idea what kind of distribution S2 or S3 has. With one trick already won, and the Right in his hand, S4 is probably gonna need his P to take a trick to get this euchre. S4 should go fishing on trick 2 as he did.

As played S4 got lucky and stretched his R-T-9 into 3 tricks for the euchre. A result that never happens if S4 blindly leads the Right on trick 2.

[irishwolf]

I am going to disagree. If S3 plays the 9D to trick 1, S4 still wins the the trick, and S3 plays his JD to Trick 2 and now leads the AD what is the Dealer to do. If he sloughs S1 also sloughs the AC and is behind the dealer to win his point.

Leading trump by S1, results in a euchre. S4 takes trick 1, leads spades, S1 has to use his other trump, he's done!

[Wes (aka the legend)]

What happened here is that Seat 3 did go with the Ace and it didn't work as we see and seat 4 takes with trump. fails to lead trump. That's his mistake. There are other mistake here. It's not a bad one but it's a logical one. Seat 3 trumps the with the Left the spade lead. They however lead back a club that Seat 1 sloughed off on. It was the Queen of club. Now Seat 3 leads back a club and it's a fresh suit and it's reasonable to try to lead it back to the make so that he has a safe card to trump with out fear of being over trumped. However as we see, he has another club unfortunately. A re-lead of diamonds would allow surely Seat 1 an opportunity to trump, but opens him up to be over trumped by seat 2 who is also out of trump. Generally jumping the fence the maker is going to have three or more trump or let's say Right-A thru Right-Queen. This isn't the case here.

Three mistakes in my book, seat 1 risky jumping the fence, Seat 4, not leading trump. Seat 3 partial mistake of not leading diamond back, although the club lead is not with out merit.


Tbolt65
Edward

This entire post is a classic example of terrible results oriented analysis. It's so bad it actually should be saved and studied so others can learn how NOT to approach this game.

Firstly, we cannot say S1 made a mistake with his call. S1 is in one of those spots where all his options suck, and no one knows which spot sucks the least. Claiming S1 made a mistake is claiming to know something one cannot know. It's not just wrong, it's intellectually dishonest.

Saying S4 made a mistake by not leading trump on Trick 2 is just dumb. You do realize S4 cannot see everyone's cards right??!??! S4 just took the first trick, and he has the Right bower in his hand for the 2nd trick. He likely needs his P to get that 3rd trick, so of course S4 should go fishing and lead an offsuit. At that point in the hand S2 and S3's range are mostly undefined. For All S4 knows the Left could be in S2's hand. Leading trump would be terrible in that spot.

Onto S3's play: The CLEAR best lead on trick 3 is a club. Think about S1's range in this spot. S1 jumped the fence and then led garbage. Most of S1's range is made up of R+1/R+2 holdings. Clubs is the perfect lead for that range. Why? Becuz clubs is a fresh suit and S1 threw off a club on trick 2. It doesn't get better than that. This means there's a good chance S1 is void in clubs and becuz the suit is fresh there's also a good chance S1 will not get overtrumped when he uses that lower trump from his R+1/R+2 configuration. The fact that S1 didn't have R+1/R+2 is irrelevant. The fact that S1 had another club is irrelevant. The fact that a non-fresh diamond lead would've avoided a euchre is irrelevant. ALL S3 CAN DO is make the best lead for his partner's range. That's his only job. His job is not to be psychic or see through the backs of everyone's cards. And when he does make the best lead for his partner's range that doesn't mean it's always gonna work out. Bad things can still happen. And just cuz something doesn't work out doesn't necessarily mean mistakes were made. If you make the best lead for your P's range that line will work out better than other competing lines in the long run. That's all that matters. Weird sh*t can always happen in any particular hand, but that's just noise.

PS: About Trick 1 and you and Wolf arguing over what line is best for S3 as far as playing over or under the KD. I'm on Wolf's team for this one. I think S3 should play under. I don't like the idea of S3 playing over and now having a non-boss diamond (9D) in his hand. I'd rather play under and now my remaining diamond (AD) is boss. These little things can matter. If I had AdTd then I'm playing over all day with the intention of leading the Left on trick 2 followed by the boss Td on trick 3. I mean you have the right idea. Putting yourself in position to lead the Left on trick 2 is sound thinking as that is the best lead for S1's range at that point in the hand. As mentioned before, when S1 jumps the fence and leads garbage the bulk of his range is going to be R+1/R+2. And of course that range would love to see you lead the Left. Again, if playing over the KD still gave me a boss diamond, I'm taking that line all day as it is the clear best line for my P's range. But becuz playing over demotes my other diamond to non-boss status, I'd rather play under the KD and let my P potentially stay in control. But who knows. Maybe I'm making a big deal over nothing on this. Maybe putting yourself in position to lead the Left on trick two--the best lead for your P's range--is more important than worrying about whether your remaining diamond is boss or not.

Cliff notes: No clear mistakes were made in this hand imo. Just becuz bad things happen doesn't mean mistakes were made.

[Tbolt65]

Player based assessment is different from general assessment of proper play. Since we all have played together enough. We all should have a grasp on how to play, against the player and for your partner. As to what they are capable of ordering and playing.

Those players who are unknowns and are typical demand standard playing as to what we all usually practice, preach and critique.

When it comes to knowns. That's where unconventional play and some risk taking is necessary. Where other wise be incorrect to play.

Tbolt65
Edward

[Wes (aka the legend)]

Player based assessment is different from general assessment of proper play. Since we all have played together enough. We all should have a grasp on how to play, against the player and for your partner. As to what they are capable of ordering and playing.

Those players who are unknowns and are typical demand standard playing as to what we all usually practice, preach and critique.

When it comes to knowns. That's where unconventional play and some risk taking is necessary. Where other wise be incorrect to play.

Tbolt65
Edward

Saying stuff everyone already knows doesn't add to the discussion.

[Tbolt65]

Player based assessment is different from general assessment of proper play. Since we all have played together enough. We all should have a grasp on how to play, against the player and for your partner. As to what they are capable of ordering and playing.

Those players who are unknowns and are typical demand standard playing as to what we all usually practice, preach and critique.

When it comes to knowns. That's where unconventional play and some risk taking is necessary. Where other wise be incorrect to play.

Tbolt65
Edward

Saying stuff everyone already knows doesn't add to the discussion.

This is qualifying my previous post. It gives context yo my assertions. So it does add to the conversation. This is a part of the game that is so next level and fluid that it takes discipline and understanding of when to employ these tactics. Something of which I'm still perfecting. Something I need to be better at.

Tbolt65
Edward

[irishwolf]

Up 4 to 1, dealer passes and you know they are sitting on Next. So now you 'guess' which green suit to call. Sometimes you guess it wrong. However, you stop marches and loners. Look at what S2 would have done for a March in Next. No worst than a euchre in green.

I see no issue, control play. You look at the bigger picture, what is your batting average in making those calls. . . That is how euchre goes, and I make no apology for winning strategy.

IRISHWOLF

[LeftyK]

"wes- 'This entire post is a classic example of terrible results oriented analysis. It's so bad it actually should be saved and studied so others can learn how NOT to approach this game.' " === ok so seeing this is how I play;;; no one mentions S3R1. If I were sitting there and I truely trusted my P, I am calling Clubs here. Now, that said my trusting P m-u-s-t lead the ace of trumps first round b/c it forces s2 to choose which trump to throw. Either way, I'm using the right then double leading diamonds. And W/E make a point. Simple enough.

[Wes (aka the legend)]

"wes- 'This entire post is a classic example of terrible results oriented analysis. It's so bad it actually should be saved and studied so others can learn how NOT to approach this game.' " === ok so seeing this is how I play;;; no one mentions S3R1. If I were sitting there and I truely trusted my P, I am calling Clubs here. Now, that said my trusting P m-u-s-t lead the ace of trumps first round b/c it forces s2 to choose which trump to throw. Either way, I'm using the right then double leading diamonds. And W/E make a point. Simple enough.

No one mentions S3R1 becuz everyone knows that would be a bad call. If you are skeptical run your own experiment on the kitchen table. Give S4 the TC upcard and give S3 Jc9cAdJd9d. Shuffle and deal out all the other cards (If S1 or S2 has a calling hand immediately reshuffle and try again). For simplicity play all the hands as you would play them. Then compare the results of S3 calling to S3 passing over say 100 samples (use the method I delineated in the thread where I test 3S hands). That should be enough to reach a 95% CI, and the E0 of passing will beat out the EO of calling.

[Dlan]

If you are skeptical run your own experiment on the kitchen table.

[Richardb02]