5-10-21 OE Monday Hand 1

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Dlan
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5-10-21 OE Monday Hand 1

Unread post by Dlan » Tue May 11, 2021 6:12 pm

Should a point have been made here?

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irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue May 11, 2021 6:57 pm

East makes a big mistake on both 1st and 2nd tricks. One by going in with the Right, and two, then not leading the Left. When you have both bowers, you must be patient. Slough the first trick. Players make mistakes, IMO. So you slough, now 3rd street leads a Heart and the Dealer makes his point. If Eldest trumps, he now forced to lead another diamond. Now both bowers go into action. This is not Rocket science. Notice also, another diamond is led, dealer does not have diamonds and S3 wastes his 9S trump. Go high or stay under the porch.

For sure, the dealer needs help, at least a diversion tactic, so he actually should have not discarded the diamond. What does it do? It gives the dealer something to lead in the event he trump or wants to slough to a heart lead. It then confusing the opponents that he might have another. I have often used this and it is an exception to the rule of creating a void. Try it sometime, you might like it.

IRISHWOLF

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue May 11, 2021 7:38 pm

I'm not convinced East misplayed the hand. His play seems reasonable every street to me. I'm also not convinced that East laying off on the first trick is an overall +EV decision. Immediately forfeiting 2 point March possibilities is gonna drag this strategy down somewhat. Like even if laying off did slightly increase East's chances of scoring a pt--a claim I'm skeptical of in itself--burning any chance of getting 2 pts could easily hurt this strategy enough to make trumping in on the first trick still the best play. It's an interesting idea tho.

On trick two I also am fine with East's play. Playing the 2nd bower and selling out on promoting a quadrupleton ace isn't worth it to me. Play the dirty off ace and hope to bring out enemy trump.

This is not a fun spot for East. All decision points after the call fall into the super marginal category. The only thing I'm certain of is no big mistake was made. But it's certainly possible a small mistake was made here. I will keep Irishwolf's thoughts in mind.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue May 11, 2021 7:45 pm

S1 however DID make a big mistake here. He needs to hand read better. By trick 2 it is obvious S4 ordered up with both bowers and no other trump. On trick 3 it is pretty clear S2 has no trump. So when S4 leads the boss KC on 4th street after he used both bowers, S1 has a super easy euchre opportunity. At that point it's clear the enemy is out of ammo. Just trump in and lead the boss diamond to victory.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue May 11, 2021 8:05 pm

S3 also made a big mistake on Trick 3. Trumping his partner's boss lead with a 9S doesn't do anything. Just needlessly wastes trump. And in this spot when it's obvious the maker only has 1 more trump that he'll have to burn on S1s boss lead and it's clear S2 has no trump, wasting that 9S could easily cost his team a euchre.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Tue May 11, 2021 8:27 pm

I can see how point was made. There was errors made. A logical one, but it cost a potential euchre. Early on everyone knows dealer has both bauers only. Midway through it is reasonable to assume seat 2 is void as well. That leaves s1 , s3 and kitty with trump potential. S1 has 4 trump accounted. When s3 trumps with 9s, there is 5 trump. Leaving 2 left. So when we get to the 4th trick. Seat 1 looks to be assuming s3 will have another trump and then that will be a euchre. However they forget their 9d is boss suit and if they only would have trumped in and lead the diamond. It would have walked.

Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue May 11, 2021 10:58 pm

Well, I am convinced, Going for two, leading AC from 4 clubs, 2 unknown and the opponents are more likely to trump it. That is Nuts! Dealer knows his hand and capability. Do 200 hands and you will see how many times he gets a sweep vs euchre doing just that!

The dealer should no he is not going for a sweep, for sure by trumping. You are trying to get out alive, with 1 point.

What kind of logic is that.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed May 12, 2021 2:37 am

irishwolf wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 10:58 pm
Well, I am convinced, Going for two, leading AC from 4 clubs, 2 unknown and the opponents are more likely to trump it. That is Nuts! Dealer knows his hand and capability. Do 200 hands and you will see how many times he gets a sweep vs euchre doing just that!

The dealer should no he is not going for a sweep, for sure by trumping. You are trying to get out alive, with 1 point.

What kind of logic is that.
The logic is fine as there is still a mathematical difference between playing off on the first lead and eliminating any chance at 2 pts vs trumping in on the first lead, leading the off ace and playing for 1. Becuz when you play for 1 pt sometimes you get lucky and get 2. Sometimes, you lead that dirty AC and S1 trumps in and your P overtrumps and then sends trump, and now you have a shot a 2 pts, or sometimes you get really lucky and S1 and S3 each have one of the last 2 clubs allowing your AC lead to walk and now you can lead the other bower and have a chance at 2. I know I'm talking about small probabilities here but it could matter as I think all lines in this spot are very close. I would predict a very small EV difference between each line. You mention 200 hands and that actually sounds about right to me. I highly doubt I'd reach a 95 CI before the 200 hand mark on this one.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu May 13, 2021 1:05 am

Ok, I think it is time to come back and address Wes's statements about the hand being played just fine in his opinion. I contend on that hand to avoid a euchre it best that the dealer should have sloughed. This is how I would have played the hand for a point:

WHAT IF, DEALER SLOUGHS 1st TRICK
S1 KD KS QD QS 9D
S2 JD 9H TC TH AH
S3 AD KH JH 9S QH
S4 QC KC JS JC AC

We know the hand was miss played by both S1 and S3 and clearly should have euchred the dealer.

Additionally, I am in agreement that sloughing to trick 1, you are in fact conceding a two point march. But so is it conceding a sweep, most of the time by the dealer if he does trump and then not lead his other Bower. The justification for that is probability of S1 & S2 to each have 1 trump or one has 1 and the other has NONE. That can be easily calculated. I will also estimate that you will get more sweeps do this than not leading the 2nd Jack. When S4 holds the other bower with 5 unknown trump, the probability of one opponent having 2 trumps is 33.4% (from 18 unknown cards). So yes you will increase sweeps but also increase the euchre rate accordingly (I would say increases at about the same rate, tit for tat). I don't know the exact rate the euchre rate will increase off hand. So easier to project the sweeps and harder to estimate euchres as things have to work out just so in so in accordance with the opponents.

The other thing that has to be taken into account is that S2 is not going to trump that AC lead, even if he has a void in clubs and two Trumps. But the opponent, S3 with only 2 unknown clubs probably has a void and will foil any sweep. Only when both opponents have one each club or club and void in trump will a sweep most like result. That is small is worth the risk then to hold back that other bower? If I wanted a higher assurance of 1 point, I would might trump the first trick and false card by playing the QC to trick 2, wanting my partner to trump it to get my point.

I contend more things will happen in the dealer's favor by sloughing when you have 4 of 6 of a suit (clubs here), even the double slough becomes necessary. Give every opportunity for your partner to help out. Now it does become a problem when both opponents have two trumps each (~ 11%) but even then if S2 has the AH and S1 & S3 have to follow suit that number is decreased significantly.

Question remains, do you want to chance with a higher risk of being euchred for a sweep by holding the bower? For me, I WANT A POINT!

You have to decide to slough or trump. If I were to trump with a bower, the other bower will definitely be played as it is the best line of defense (or offense to get out alive). It ludicrous to think the AC will will many tricks so now you have to have S2 with a big trump or two trumps because if he does not the opponents certainly will. With four clubs, two out presents a lot of issues for the dealer.

In this particular hand the dealer coming back with the 2nd Jack would have most definitely resulted in a euchre but that is why you slough twice. S1 has to trump the KH lead by S3 or S2 wins the trick. My point is if you have such a hand you have to careful chose your options. It is not always 100% correct to go either direction - THAT EUCHRE!

Did the dealer error, most certainly.

IRISHWOLF


Wes says, " I'm not convinced East misplayed the hand. His play seems reasonable every street to me. I'm also not convinced that East laying off on the first trick is an overall +EV decision. Immediately forfeiting 2 point March possibilities is gonna drag this strategy down somewhat. Like even if laying off did slightly increase East's chances of scoring a pt--a claim I'm skeptical of in itself--burning any chance of getting 2 pts could easily hurt this strategy enough to make trumping in on the first trick still the best play. It's an interesting idea tho.

On trick two I also am fine with East's play. Playing the 2nd bower and selling out on promoting a quadrupleton ace isn't worth it to me. Play the dirty off ace and hope to bring out enemy trump.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu May 13, 2021 2:37 am

irishwolf wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 1:05 am
Additionally, I am in agreement that sloughing to trick 1, you are in fact conceding a two point march. But so is it conceding a sweep, most of the time by the dealer if he does trump and then not lead his other Bower. The justification for that is probability of S1 & S2 to each have 1 trump or one has 1 and the other has NONE. That can be easily calculated. I will also estimate that you will get more sweeps do this than not leading the 2nd Jack. When S4 holds the other bower with 5 unknown trump, the probability of one opponent having 2 trumps is 33.4% (from 18 unknown cards). So yes you will increase sweeps but also increase the euchre rate accordingly (I would say increases at about the same rate, tit for tat).
I'm not convinced the euchre rate changes significantly (sloughing trick 1 vs trumping in and leading the dirty ace). To me this seems like a spot where all our options suck and the competing EVs are gonna run really close.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 1:05 am
I don't know the exact rate the euchre rate will increase off hand. So easier to project the sweeps and harder to estimate euchres as things have to work out just so in so in accordance with the opponents.

The other thing that has to be taken into account is that S2 is not going to trump that AC lead, even if he has a void in clubs and two Trumps. But the opponent, S3 with only 2 unknown clubs probably has a void and will foil any sweep. Only when both opponents have one each club or club and void in trump will a sweep most like result. That is small is worth the risk then to hold back that other bower?
There's actually two ways a sweep can possibly happen if S4 leads the AC on trick. 1) you've already mentioned when both S1 and S3 have the 1 of the 2 remaining clubs. Unlikely but possible. 2) is those times S1 trumps S4's AC lead and S2 overtrumps (And then we'll usually need S2 to have another trump and correctly lead it back to the maker's other bower). An event that can certainly happen given how dirty the AC lead is and the fact that S2's range will have more 2 trump hands in them than usual given the Jack upcard and S2 presumably not wanting to block there P's potential loner.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 1:05 am
If I wanted a higher assurance of 1 point, I would might trump the first trick and false card by playing the QC to trick 2, wanting my partner to trump it to get my point.
I wouldn't go this route. Too risky imo. Given how dirty the AC lead is, I don't wanna false card my P and risk him getting overtrumped.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 1:05 am
I contend more things will happen in the dealer's favor by sloughing when you have 4 of 6 of a suit (clubs here), even the double slough becomes necessary. Give every opportunity for your partner to help out. Now it does become a problem when both opponents have two trumps each (~ 11%) but even then if S2 has the AH and S1 & S3 have to follow suit that number is decreased significantly.
I mean you could be right man. I just don't see it. What I see here is all options suck and I just don't wanna choose the option that gives up immediately on a 2 pt march.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 1:05 am
Question remains, do you want to chance with a higher risk of being euchred for a sweep by holding the bower? For me, I WANT A POINT!
I'm not convinced the euchre probability chances that much if we slough.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 1:05 am
You have to decide to slough or trump. If I were to trump with a bower, the other bower will definitely be played as it is the best line of defense (or offense to get out alive).
I'm not convinced that's true, but If I were down 9-8, I'm trumping in and leading trump every time in this spot. Caution to the wind, go for the 2 pts. Besides that I think the EVs between:

1) Slough
2) Trump in and lead AC
3) Trump in and lead the other bower

Are gonna be very close. Close enough that I really don't have time to worry about this spot for now. I gotta test other spots where the EV difference will actually matter to me. This spot is on the list but it's way down there unfortunately.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 1:05 am
It ludicrous to think the AC will will many tricks so now you have to have S2 with a big trump or two trumps because if he does not the opponents certainly will. With four clubs, two out presents a lot of issues for the dealer.

In this particular hand the dealer coming back with the 2nd Jack would have most definitely resulted in a euchre but that is why you slough twice. S1 has to trump the KH lead by S3 or S2 wins the trick. My point is if you have such a hand you have to careful chose your options. It is not always 100% correct to go either direction - THAT EUCHRE!

Did the dealer error, most certainly.

IRISHWOLF


What happened in the particular hand is irrelevant to me, and I am not certain at all that the dealer errored here. And I don't think it's worth my time to run a sample on this one. 1) cuz I expect the EV difference in each line to be very small and 2) cuz it's gonna take a lot of hands--probably at least 200--to reach a 95% CI due to 1). I got more important fish to fry right now. However I'll probably try your line out when I play on the app cuz why not. It's always good to experiment. Not like I'm gonna lose any money over trying a new strategy.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu May 13, 2021 6:37 am

I see what Irishwolf is saying here. The concept is similar to when your going alone and you have say right-q-10 trump and seat 3 plays the left on trick 1. Your put to a decision. The correct play to ensure a point and not a euchre is to slough the trick. With Irishwolf proposal thats what could be done here when s2 doesn't take 1st trick. To bypass getting a march and play for 1 to reduce the chances of getting euchred. This play however might confuse the non thinking player but it may raise suspicions to those paying attention. That you may only have 2 bauers or even 1 for that matter.

I think this concept here for this hand much like playing for 1 on certain loner hands has merit in principle. It could backfire heavily if not played smartly by the maker. Depending on the various situations that develope with the sloughing there also may be a time after s1 and s3 both taken a trick with possible trump to then trump in and send the other bauer to possibly clear the rest out and have boss club. However the longer the hand goes on and your partner hasn't taken a trick with an Off suit or a trump, or forced a trump from opponents then more likely a euchre is to be had with opponents stacking tricks and having trump behind.


Tbolt65
Edward


Edit: why is Edward posting at 3 in the morning. Well I felt a disturbance in the force. LOL, actually no. I woke up wide awake and just checked the forums.

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