First Lead With Bad Hand

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RedDuke
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Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

First Lead With Bad Hand

Post by RedDuke » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:33 pm

Is there any sort of consensus as to what the best lead is when you're in first seat and holding a worthless hand?

Let's say you're holding this:

(Card_9-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_10-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_Q-H)

The dealer picks up a Diamond and takes his partner along (so no loner).

Is there a rule as to what the best lead is or does it not really matter? I could see leading the Queen of Hearts to create a void but because you have no trump, it doesn't seem like there'd be a real point to this.



Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:44 pm

Singleton green cards are the best lead in this spot imo. However, if you ask me to prove this I would fail. In your specific holding it really doesn't matter what card you lead since your singleton QH is equivalent to your doubleton black cards. I'd probably shrug my shoulders and lead black anyways, leading the low card hoping for that 1% chance you promote your black Queen to boss status to maybe take a trick on the last round (I made that percentage up obviously but you get the idea).

BTW this is a classic donation hand. Whenever I have no trump no aces I'm donating at a ton of scores.

RedDuke
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Post by RedDuke » Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:35 am

BTW this is a classic donation hand. Whenever I have no trump no aces I'm donating at a ton of scores.
I'm assuming because if you're holding garbage then somebody probably has a really good hand and it may be one of your opponents?

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:45 am

WES,

WRONG - to lead your singleton when you have two doubleton off suits. You act as if your the expert. The correct lead is either the low club or spade.

Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:42 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:45 am
WES,

WRONG - to lead your singleton when you have two doubleton off suits. You act as if your the expert. The correct lead is either the low club or spade.

Irishwolf
Yeah I'm honestly skeptical that it really makes a meaningful difference which card OP leads in this spot. This is one of those spots where I would be curious to see the outcome of a large simulation on each lead. After all, in the end math is the only real answer to any card game.

Most of the time we don't have the math at hand tho, but logic can often do. Here's the simple logical argument on why a a lead from a black doubleton is better than leading the red queen in this specific situation:

Any lead you make can elicit information, but leading the (Card_Q-H) will give you information you can do nothing with. I'll expand further on the implication of this statement below:

As we all know, the dealer already had a chance to create a void. So when we get a chance to see the dealer's first offsuit holding there's a good chance he has another card of that suit. If you lead the (Card_Q-H) and you see that the dealer does indeed have a heart, you now know that the dealer has a good chance of having another heart, but so what, you're out of hearts.

If you lead the (Card_9-C) or the (Card_10-S) you now have a chance to see if the dealer has one of those suits and if he does then you would know to hold onto that suit hoping you can take a trick with your black queen when the dealer plays that suit later in the hand.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:05 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:35 am
BTW this is a classic donation hand. Whenever I have no trump no aces I'm donating at a ton of scores.
I'm assuming because if you're holding garbage then somebody probably has a really good hand and it may be one of your opponents?
Ever play Omaha poker before? Omaha poker and euchre have something in common. In both games most of deck is in play. This is why in Omaha the saying goes, "if you don't have it, somebody else probably does". In euchre, with only a few buried cards, this idea applies also. When you have all garbage cards, that means there's a higher than normal chance somebody is loaded with a monster. And that monster hand is most likely in your opponents' hand since you have two enemies vs only one comrade. Plus they already have the upcard in their favor, and a chance to create a void. That's why whenever you get dealt a "no trump, no aces" hand you should be scared to death. An opponent loner possibility is as high as it gets in this spot.

To drive home how bad this spot is for you, I have a working hypothesis for this hand:

Whenever you are in the 1 seat and get dealt no trump, no aces, plus no viable 2nd round hand you should always donate as long as the opposing team has 7 points or fewer. That's a really strong statement. I have no way of really knowing if it's correct. Just a hypothesis I would love to see proven wrong or right.

Another way of looking at it, when you get dealt such a horrible holding, even when your opponents just call, there is still a great chance they will get 2 points becuz you have a dead hand defensively. Well if there's a great chance they are gonna get 2 on a call anyways, might as well donate to prevent a 4 point play. IOW the expected value of your hand is so bad, a donate can't really cost you much mathematically.

Also, keep in mind that when you have "no trump, no aces, no 2nd rd hand" your donation is potentially stopping 3 loners from your opponents. The 2 seat and dealer in the first round and the 2 seat in the 2nd round since you have no where to go in the 2nd round. That's a pretty powerful play.

Whether you agree with my hypothesis or not doesn't really matter to me. It's just a hypothesis. That said, I would strongly recommend you donate every time with this holding whenever your team has a 2 point lead or greater.

blankman
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Post by blankman » Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:01 pm

I don't understand what this means- "Whenever you are in the 1 seat and get dealt no trump, no aces, plus no viable 2nd round hand you should always donate as long as the opposing team has 7 points or fewer."

What do you mean, "You should always donate"? Lose on purpose? How does "donating" prevent loners? Thanks!

RedDuke
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Post by RedDuke » Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:45 pm

blankman wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:01 pm
I don't understand what this means- "Whenever you are in the 1 seat and get dealt no trump, no aces, plus no viable 2nd round hand you should always donate as long as the opposing team has 7 points or fewer."

What do you mean, "You should always donate"? Lose on purpose? How does "donating" prevent loners? Thanks!
They can't call a loner if you declare trump.

It doesn't stop an opponent from taking all five tricks but it does stop them from getting four points for it.

Tbolt65
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Location: Las Vegas

Post by Tbolt65 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:50 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:45 am
WES,

WRONG - to lead your singleton when you have two doubleton off suits. You act as if your the expert. The correct lead is either the low club or spade.

Irishwolf
I agree with Irishwolf. For me I'm trying to find my partner's void. If a no go there then I'm eliminating what suits the dealer may have left and continue to watch all cards played to see what to save. I'm playing the low spade or club.

However, one point I do agree with Wes on is the donating aspect. Now depending on the score say like 9-6. Or 9-7 Or even 9-5 my teams lead. I'm always donating in those situations. If I am up 1-2-3pts or it is tied. I am not likely to be donating at all.

Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:19 pm

Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:50 pm
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:45 am
WES,

WRONG - to lead your singleton when you have two doubleton off suits. You act as if your the expert. The correct lead is either the low club or spade.

Irishwolf
I agree with Irishwolf. For me I'm trying to find my partner's void. If a no go there then I'm eliminating what suits the dealer may have left and continue to watch all cards played to see what to save. I'm playing the low spade or club.

However, one point I do agree with Wes on is the donating aspect. Now depending on the score say like 9-6. Or 9-7 Or even 9-5 my teams lead. I'm always donating in those situations. If I am up 1-2-3pts or it is tied. I am not likely to be donating at all.

Tbolt65
Edward
Don't highlight that Irishwolf quote. It deeply hurts my feelings!!

I agree that leading a low black card is best and that my donating strategy is on the aggressive/controversial side.

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