Friday Night Euchre Hand #9

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Tbolt65
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Friday Night Euchre Hand #9

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sat May 01, 2021 3:02 am

Seat 3 bags heavy. Seat 1 goes for a loner try in diamonds and misses loner but makes the point. But if they went in Hearts, there was a successful loner?

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https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D


Tbolt65
Edward
Last edited by Tbolt65 on Sat May 01, 2021 11:54 am, edited 1 time in total.



Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat May 01, 2021 6:02 am

Tbolt65 wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 3:02 am
Seat 3 bags heavy. Seat 1 goes for a loner try in diamonds and misses loner but makes the point. But if they went in Hearts, there was a successful loner.



https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D
Good bag by S3. S1 should've went alone in hearts not diamonds. I'm guessing that was a misclick.

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Sat May 01, 2021 9:38 am

eenie, meenie, miney...............

pick a suit.

The results would not have changed no matter what.

As this shows, there are risks involved when sandbagging your opponents.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sat May 01, 2021 11:42 am

It is actually not eenie meenie on which to go alone in - Reason is you have not exposed yourself to two losers going in diamonds, and in two different suits. Statistically, confident that Hearts is far superior than Diamonds. Opposing team would have to have three hearts to stop you in hearts, headed by AH. Very doubtful that combination! Okay, now that QS, S2 gets squeezed with AC & KS dblt. I doubt he will toss that AC and keep the KS . . . Just don't think so!

Seat 3 bags heavy. Seat 1 goes for a loner try in diamonds and misses loner but makes the point. But if they went in Hearts, there was a successful loner.

IRISHWOLF

P.S. The statistics on is having AH = 28% and having 2 of the 3 remaining hearts is 11.4% x 28% = 3% chance that can happen. But look at the chance of having the AH if you choose Diamonds as trump - 56% opponents have the AH.
Last edited by irishwolf on Sat May 01, 2021 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Sat May 01, 2021 11:48 am

In this case, opponents have the 3 hearts, but I see your point.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sat May 01, 2021 1:26 pm

You are correct, this time they would have stopped hearts. So that 3% chance did occur even tho crossed suit, wild. I am convinced this dealer doing set-ups like. Just occurs at a statistical frequency that is not random enough. Stuff like that happens but not at the frequency by this shuffler. I find myself considering what the site is doing with dealing the cards. For example, when one team gets a loner, the percentages go up that the other team very quickly has a lone hand. There is a pattern! IMO

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sat May 01, 2021 1:53 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 1:26 pm
You are correct, this time they would have stopped hearts. So that 3% chance did occur even tho crossed suit, wild. I am convinced this dealer doing set-ups like. Just occurs at a statistical frequency that is not random enough. Stuff like that happens but not at the frequency by this shuffler. I find myself considering what the site is doing with dealing the cards. For example, when one team gets a loner, the percentages go up that the other team very quickly has a lone hand. There is a pattern! IMO
I agree with you Irishwolf that if one plays long enough on any site or app, one can be attuned to the various nuances and/or patterns that might exist there. With either the program or players. When I had my euchre challenge against Natty Bumpo. I wanted to play somewhere fair for all and I brought up my concerns about favorabilty of cards in particular seats on particular odd/even number tables. He told me b.s. Its mathematically random.

Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat May 01, 2021 2:12 pm

Dlan wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 9:38 am
The results would not have changed no matter what.
True but what happens in a single hand is usually not important. What matters is what's the best play in the long run.
Dlan wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 9:38 am
As this shows, there are risks involved when sandbagging your opponents.
This hand actually illustrates the rewards of sandbagging, not the risks.

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Sat May 01, 2021 2:32 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 2:12 pm

This hand actually illustrates the rewards of sandbagging, not the risks.


Why yes, and the other team didn't even say thank you for allowing them the chance to make a point. :)

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sat May 01, 2021 9:41 pm

Here is an interesting, maybe not, stat. 13 games, 133 hands and there were 6 successful loners. Off hand I do not know the attempts. Those lone hands all resulted in Wins. My stats show 90% chance of winning the game if you make a loner and the other side does not.

So critical to stop the loners. You have to have a success rate tho of stopping one in three donates to breakeven. If you can't do that, you are giving away points. I know I donated maybe 6 times myself and wanted to on another from 3rd seat but did not. I had no lone hands, maybe only 2 or 3 attempts. I am not sure of all the donates but about 1 successful loner averages out 14 hands. So there should have been around 10 on the average. You can see the results of donating on that stat. And if you get euchred 3 times in one game your win statistic drops to about 14%.

And who doesn't think giving away points is important? Well, out of 13 games I 5 went to 8 & 8, 9 & 9 or 8 & 9. Whoa!
Last edited by irishwolf on Sat May 01, 2021 9:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sat May 01, 2021 9:52 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 9:41 pm
Here is an interesting, maybe not, stat. 13 games, 133 hands and there were 5 successful loners (3.76%). Off hand I do not know the attempts. Those lone hands all resulted in Wins. My stats show 90% chance of winning the game if you make a loner and the other side does not.

So critical to stop the loners. You have to have a success rate tho of stopping one in three donates to breakeven. If you can't do that, you are giving away points. I know I donated maybe 6 times myself and wanted to on another from 3rd seat but did not. I had no lone hands, maybe only 2 or 3 attempts. I am not sure of all the donates but about 1 successful loner averages out 14 hands. So there should have been around 10 on the average. You can see the results of donating on that stat. And if you get euchred 3 times in one game your win statistic drops to about 14%.

And who doesn't think giving away points is important? Well, out of 13 games I 5 went to 8 & 8, 9 & 9 or 8 & 9. Whoa!

I love using movie clips or quotes as one may or not know to illustrate or highlight an idea, thought or to hammer home a point.

Taken from the Movie the Matrix:
Trinity:
What's he doing?

Morpheus:
He's beginning to believe.
8-)


As I have been saying, the little things, point leakages , mistakes are so very important. Irishwolf highlights those sentiments Very well here and shows with the limited games provided on how such games can be impacted when scores are so very close.


Tbolt65
Edward

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