Friday 4-22 Hand #3

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Tbolt65
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Friday 4-22 Hand #3

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:19 am

Dealer orders up club here. The defenders take first trick, with Ace of hearts, Ace diamond gets trumped by maker. Maker(dealer) now leads a second heart. Seat 1 has the Left of trump. No trump has been lead so far. Only way defenders get a possible euchre is if they put the maker in a squeeze. The play here should be to throw off the fresh King of spades suit so to allow Seat 1s partner a chance to take a trick and put the squeeze on Dealer. This doesn't happen here and Dealer makes their point. Allow for help from your partner especially when your sitting behind the Dealer.



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Tbolt65
Edward



Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:57 am

Tbolt65 wrote:
Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:19 am
Dealer orders up club here. The defenders take first trick, with Ace of hearts, Ace diamond gets trumped by maker. Maker(dealer) now leads a second heart. Seat 1 has the Left of trump. No trump has been lead so far. Only way defenders get a possible euchre is if they put the maker in a squeeze. The play here should be to throw off the fresh King of spades suit so to allow Seat 1s partner a chance to take a trick and put the squeeze on Dealer. This doesn't happen here and Dealer makes their point. Allow for help from your partner especially when your sitting behind the Dealer.
This was a bad mistake by S1. His team already has 1 trick in, so a 2 pt march by the enemy is already stopped. Now it's time to play for the euchre. On trick 3 the maker takes a super obvious end play line (let's not forget the maker even picked up the AC suggesting he has ACJC!!), and S1 has the perfect card to stop that end play and force a euchre, the Left. All S1 has to do here is correctly void himself in the fresh suit (KS) and hope his P can get the lead to put the maker in a squeeze and then the maker is in big time trouble, and a euchre is imminent. As I always say on defense: Always play for the euchre. No mercy!

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:27 pm

BOY, OH BOY!

Made no sense at all to play that Left on 2nd trk! Just what the dealer wanted.

However, it's playing Russian Roulette to play the JH on 2nd trick by the dealer. Leading the JH you are depending on your partner to have a bigger trump or several trumps to fall, so many bad things can happen.

What if you lead the JC, as the QH then must be with S1 or S2 and the Left has to be guarded as well? Here might be another clue of leading the JC before the JH. S3 if he had it would or should have led it. Thus the QH must be with S1, S2 or buried. It either case, why not lead the JC?

I think there could be more to this?

IRISHWOLF
Last edited by irishwolf on Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:43 pm

yeah but it's hard to lay off an unguarded left with that cruddy hand showing....

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:46 am

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:27 pm
However, it's playing Russian Roulette to play the JH on 2nd trick by the dealer. Leading the JH you are depending on your partner to have a bigger trump or several trumps to fall, so many bad things can happen.
Just letting you know, I was the dealer. First I just wanted to point out that if I had a boss heart or an effective boss heart (we can deduce it's boss through hand reading) then I would've led the JC

Also, this goes almost without saying: In a really weak game when S1 will break up a guarded Left I think leading the JH is unequivocally correct becuz we can expect S1 to incorrectly give us our end play pretty much every time. But that's a boring claim that I'm pretty sure you agree with.

The question is what do I do in a tough game with a non-fresh, non-boss heart? Frankly I am not sure which line does best, but I am very open and sympathetic to leading the JC. If you think that's best I would not argue with you.
irishwolf wrote:
Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:27 pm
What if you lead the JC, as the QH then must be with S1 or S2 and the Left has to be guarded as well? Here might be another clue of leading the JC before the JH. S3 if he had it would or should have led it. Thus the QH must be with S1, S2 or buried. It either case, why not lead the JC?

I think there could be more to this?

IRISHWOLF
Ok, I see the hand reading logic behind S3 not having the boss heart. And now that I think about it, if S1 has the guarded Left and the QH there's a chance I'm screwed no matter what line I take if my P cant trump high enough on my JH lead to shut out S3. If my JH is effectively boss and S1 has the guarded Left, then leading the JC is clearly the best play cuz even many mediocre players won't break up their guarded Left if I lead the JH trying to set up an end play. If S1 has an unguarded Left, then obviously leading the JC is best no matter where the QH is. Also another hand reading tidbit, if S1 leads off well then when he leads off non-aces, he will veer towards singleton green leads vs dealer calls which suggests that S1 is less likely to have the QH.

Ok, I think you've convinced me that leading the Right is the correct play for me on 3rd Street. I see it now. I think playing for the end play was a mistake in this spot and luckily I got bailed out by a bigger mistake.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:43 pm

With Five Hearts accounted for and one remaining heart left. The jack of hearts is still not boss, you must go fishing. So you can set up an end play, leading clubs can put you in bad situations. Sure it pulls trump out but if the left is protected and the opponents still holding onto the Queen of hearts, your automatically done for. Leading the jack of hearts in hope to set up an end play is going to set up your hand for a winner nearly every time(not all though). The only time you get hurt is if you get squeezed and the Left bauer is on your left side and you get over trumped from a seat 3 lead that Seat 1 doesn't have to follow suit. With trump not pulled yet, leading that jack of hearts can help yank trump out or allows your partner to force higher trump out. Ideally you want to the lead to be taking by first seat, or your partner. Seat 1 taking automatically insures your end play. Seat 2 taking automatically makes your right bauer the winner for the trick. Seat 3 is where it can get a little tricky and where a lot of scenarios come into play.

It all depends on how seat three acquires the trick and lead. If seat three gets the lead via trumping in with being the only trump for that round. Then it can get dicey with being put in a squeeze. Since trump hasn't been lead yet. He can either lead trump or an off -suit and this can cause big problems for the Maker if he hasn't seen where the left is. If seat 3 attains the lead because of multiple trump being played for that round. If the left wasn't shown the maker still has some concern and will have to count how many trump was played and by who. If seat 3 acquires the trick with the Queen of hearts. Then the maker stuck with another possible squeeze scenario. At any time if seat 3 acquires the lead with the left bauer it is automatically over. Or if the left bauer is shown from any position. Maker, makes the point hand is over.


Now getting to know where that Queen of hearts is. With how it was played. The Heart logically is either in Seat 1 or Seat 3's position or it is buried. With that sentiment and thinking by how the cards where played. The maker can reasonably thinking that since trump hasn't been lead that their partner in seat 2 if they have a trump can either take the trick or force a higher trump out of seat 3 with a jack of hearts lead. That's how I would assume things play out and expect to after seeing seat 2 partner throw the King of hearts. We all know thats not the case and seat two improperly played the king of hearts. The King and Queen are effectively the same card in value in that position of seat two because if seat 3 doesn't have the ace. Either heart will be good or your partner takes it with the Ace in dealer spot. So what the deal you ask? The deal is, you want to make sure your partner is readying your hand properly, play the Queen. This will allow better assessment of your hand and the opponents hand. So it helps the dealer, make decisions in further rounds of this hand.


Tbolt65
Edward

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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:53 pm

LeftyK wrote:
Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:43 pm
yeah but it's hard to lay off an unguarded left with that cruddy hand showing....

Yeah but Lefty you have to think how is your team going to get a euchre here. If you can stay behind the dealer/maker here with that Left. No matter what he does your are in a position to over trump. You need Seat 3 to take a trick, either by his trump or his off suit. Since trump wasn't lead at all you have to hope your partner has a high enough trump or can possibly take it with the queen of hearts so your team gets a Euchre. With you Trumping in right there, you are basically limiting your teams chances and putting your team in a box of limiting scenario's, plus giving the lead in the most favorable position on the table for the Maker at this stage in the Hand. Plus if your partner takes and the leads back and Maker puts the right on the trick, you still have the remaining boss card. No matter what the maker plays. There is no way out for them. This is the position and play you want set up.


Don't be so quick to trump in here, in the future. If trump hasn't been lead , give your partner a shot at taking a trick. Every situation is different and for similar ones perhaps the play is to put the left, but with how trump was not pulled yet and your spot on the table. Allow for your partner to possibly take a trick and pray to god he doesn't lead trump back, LOL.


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Edward

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:32 pm

Tbolt65 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:43 pm
With Five Hearts accounted for and one remaining heart left. The jack of hearts is still not boss, you must go fishing. So you can set up an end play, leading clubs can put you in bad situations. Sure it pulls trump out but if the left is protected and the opponents still holding onto the Queen of hearts, your automatically done for. Leading the jack of hearts in hope to set up an end play is going to set up your hand for a winner nearly every time(not all though). The only time you get hurt is if you get squeezed and the Left bauer is on your left side and you get over trumped from a seat 3 lead that Seat 1 doesn't have to follow suit. With trump not pulled yet, leading that jack of hearts can help yank trump out or allows your partner to force higher trump out. Ideally you want to the lead to be taking by first seat, or your partner. Seat 1 taking automatically insures your end play. Seat 2 taking automatically makes your right bauer the winner for the trick. Seat 3 is where it can get a little tricky and where a lot of scenarios come into play.

It all depends on how seat three acquires the trick and lead. If seat three gets the lead via trumping in with being the only trump for that round. Then it can get dicey with being put in a squeeze. Since trump hasn't been lead yet. He can either lead trump or an off -suit and this can cause big problems for the Maker if he hasn't seen where the left is. If seat 3 attains the lead because of multiple trump being played for that round. If the left wasn't shown the maker still has some concern and will have to count how many trump was played and by who. If seat 3 acquires the trick with the Queen of hearts. Then the maker stuck with another possible squeeze scenario. At any time if seat 3 acquires the lead with the left bauer it is automatically over. Or if the left bauer is shown from any position. Maker, makes the point hand is over.


Now getting to know where that Queen of hearts is. With how it was played. The Heart logically is either in Seat 1 or Seat 3's position or it is buried. With that sentiment and thinking by how the cards where played. The maker can reasonably thinking that since trump hasn't been lead that their partner in seat 2 if they have a trump can either take the trick or force a higher trump out of seat 3 with a jack of hearts lead. That's how I would assume things play out and expect to after seeing seat 2 partner throw the King of hearts. We all know thats not the case and seat two improperly played the king of hearts. The King and Queen are effectively the same card in value in that position of seat two because if seat 3 doesn't have the ace. Either heart will be good or your partner takes it with the Ace in dealer spot. So what the deal you ask? The deal is, you want to make sure your partner is readying your hand properly, play the Queen. This will allow better assessment of your hand and the opponents hand. So it helps the dealer, make decisions in further rounds of this hand.


Tbolt65
Edward
In a tough game where opponents seldom blow euchre opportunities--like in our Thursday night cash game--I think it really is--at the very least--unclear which line is best.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:15 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:32 pm
Tbolt65 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:43 pm
With Five Hearts accounted for and one remaining heart left. The jack of hearts is still not boss, you must go fishing. So you can set up an end play, leading clubs can put you in bad situations. Sure it pulls trump out but if the left is protected and the opponents still holding onto the Queen of hearts, your automatically done for. Leading the jack of hearts in hope to set up an end play is going to set up your hand for a winner nearly every time(not all though). The only time you get hurt is if you get squeezed and the Left bauer is on your left side and you get over trumped from a seat 3 lead that Seat 1 doesn't have to follow suit. With trump not pulled yet, leading that jack of hearts can help yank trump out or allows your partner to force higher trump out. Ideally you want to the lead to be taking by first seat, or your partner. Seat 1 taking automatically insures your end play. Seat 2 taking automatically makes your right bauer the winner for the trick. Seat 3 is where it can get a little tricky and where a lot of scenarios come into play.

It all depends on how seat three acquires the trick and lead. If seat three gets the lead via trumping in with being the only trump for that round. Then it can get dicey with being put in a squeeze. Since trump hasn't been lead yet. He can either lead trump or an off -suit and this can cause big problems for the Maker if he hasn't seen where the left is. If seat 3 attains the lead because of multiple trump being played for that round. If the left wasn't shown the maker still has some concern and will have to count how many trump was played and by who. If seat 3 acquires the trick with the Queen of hearts. Then the maker stuck with another possible squeeze scenario. At any time if seat 3 acquires the lead with the left bauer it is automatically over. Or if the left bauer is shown from any position. Maker, makes the point hand is over.


Now getting to know where that Queen of hearts is. With how it was played. The Heart logically is either in Seat 1 or Seat 3's position or it is buried. With that sentiment and thinking by how the cards where played. The maker can reasonably thinking that since trump hasn't been lead that their partner in seat 2 if they have a trump can either take the trick or force a higher trump out of seat 3 with a jack of hearts lead. That's how I would assume things play out and expect to after seeing seat 2 partner throw the King of hearts. We all know thats not the case and seat two improperly played the king of hearts. The King and Queen are effectively the same card in value in that position of seat two because if seat 3 doesn't have the ace. Either heart will be good or your partner takes it with the Ace in dealer spot. So what the deal you ask? The deal is, you want to make sure your partner is readying your hand properly, play the Queen. This will allow better assessment of your hand and the opponents hand. So it helps the dealer, make decisions in further rounds of this hand.


Tbolt65
Edward
In a tough game where opponents seldom blow euchre opportunities--like in our Thursday night cash game--I think it really is--at the very least--unclear which line is best.

I have said this before. That thurs night cash game is not as tough of a game you think it is, but considering the type of players you have mostly played with in your short career as a euchre player. I can understand how that it may seem that way to you, ala Karman app and the majority of people at Thurs Night tournament. I consider Monday/Friday night OE games tougher because of the awareness of various calling and types of play.

Sometimes what is best is what you got to work with and often enough the information you have gathered and know from experience from the opponents and your partner in any particular game and how the hand has played, plus personal playing experience. If the information is still unclear you have to take a line that best gives you and your team an opportunity to perhaps succeed. Don't throw away something or shut down possibilities just because you are unsure what is always the best way to play for a particular scenario at a particular spot. There will be times playing like you normally would does not apply for certain scenario's( I have also said that to you as well). Two ways you learn, you learn by observation and doing or if someone who comes along and tells you whats better. You do that until proven other wise, by what ever means that comes by. Just remember the success of many points, euchres, marches and loners come at the expense of your opponents mistakes as well. Allow or induce your opponents to make a mistake and promote you and your teams chances of success at a point/march/euchre or loner.


Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:53 pm

UPDATE: There are only 12 cards unknown to the dealer: 4 spades, 4 clubs, 1 heart and 3 diamonds. I played out 110 hands, leading JC I was euchred 3 times, and leading JH got euchred 17 times. Those three when leading JC, was euchred either way. Played it without S3 having QH. I suppose some might do that differently banking on he dealer playing it later, (holding the QH) but makes little sense to me doing that. Removing that unguarded JS is critical to the difference in the euchre rate. And the left guarded needs to be with S1, behind the dealer.

But do what you will. For me I don't like going Fishing when I know my odds are better doing something else! You just know how favorable the fish might bite.

~Irishwolf

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:38 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:53 pm
UPDATE: There are only 12 cards unknown to the dealer: 4 spades, 4 clubs, 1 heart and 3 diamonds. I played out 110 hands, leading JC I was euchred 3 times, and leading JH got euchred 17 times. Those three when leading JC, was euchred either way. Played it without S3 having QH. I suppose some might do that differently banking on he dealer playing it later, (holding the QH) but makes little sense to me doing that. Removing that unguarded JS is critical to the difference in the euchre rate. And the left guarded needs to be with S1, behind the dealer.

But do what you will. For me I don't like going Fishing when I know my odds are better doing something else! You just know how favorable the fish might bite.

~Irishwolf
Good work Wolf! I am not surprised by the result but I am very surprised at how much leading the JC dominated the endplay strategy. Awesome stuff.

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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 11:55 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:53 pm
UPDATE: There are only 12 cards unknown to the dealer: 4 spades, 4 clubs, 1 heart and 3 diamonds. I played out 110 hands, leading JC I was euchred 3 times, and leading JH got euchred 17 times. Those three when leading JC, was euchred either way. Played it without S3 having QH. I suppose some might do that differently banking on he dealer playing it later, (holding the QH) but makes little sense to me doing that. Removing that unguarded JS is critical to the difference in the euchre rate. And the left guarded needs to be with S1, behind the dealer.

But do what you will. For me I don't like going Fishing when I know my odds are better doing something else! You just know how favorable the fish might bite.

~Irishwolf
I'm sorry but this is monday night quaterbacking here. You can't not reasonably ask for the Maker to lead the Right bauer here. No matter how many times you say this and that. It still doesn't change the fact that the Queen of hearts is unaccounted for amongst the trump that hasn't been seen, you have to play accordingly. There are various factors stated that was left out, which are crucial. You are only tested for a limited available presets and confined them to the one scenario the Left is not protected. If you know the left is not protected yeah your going to Win a lot of points knowing that. There are many unknown factors here in this hand but you guys set it up nicely so that it works for a particular scenario that is very rare and limited. I agree it is important to recognize these scenarios as they develop. However to say this is the right play all the time, I say no it's not. Not even close and if you play it like this frequently its going to lead to trouble.

If you can be reasonably certain the left is unprotected, the queen of hearts is down, go right ahead. I am all for it.

With the one current hand we are currently critiquing from the Friday night game, with the information given by all players. It is absolutely wrong to lead trump. You would hurt your chances at pulling your partners trump out, unprotecting your Right/Ace and then hoping the queen is not in play and the left is not protected. Too much to ask for and your hoping the perfect scenario arises out of that play so that everything goes right.

Tbolt65
Edward

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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:41 am

??? I don't know what you are trying say Ed. I think you are trying to move the goal posts when the Hand presented was exactly that the Dealer had JC AC QC JH 10H.

He loses the first trick and wins the the next with the QC. So where do you go from there if you are the Dealer?

There are only 12 cards remaining, and he QH (leading it) is actually just an obstacle. It will be 33% Stock, S1 or S2. It will get trumped and if if trumped by S3 and S1 has JS (guarded or unguarded) and has a void to S3 lead you get a euchre (3 diamonds and 4 spades he behind the dealer).

Lead trump (JC) and now the QH might win a trick. At least better than not leading trump.

With that hand if he wins the first trick is a different situation and fishing is probably correct but that is moving the goal posts and so is any other holding and what happens accordingly. Of course ADJUST!

But I think you missed the point on a particular situation. You can't do better than leading the JC to the 3rd trick. If so, please explain?

I'm sorry but this is monday night quaterbacking here. You can't not reasonably ask for the Maker to lead the Right bauer here. No matter how many times you say this and that. It still doesn't change the fact that the Queen of hearts is unaccounted for amongst the trump that hasn't been seen, you have to play accordingly. There are various factors stated that was left out, which are crucial. You are only tested for a limited available presets and confined them to the one scenario the Left is not protected.
OF COURSE BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT THE HAND AND SITUATION WAS. NOT ABOUT ALL OR ANY OTHER!

If you know the left is not protected yeah your going to Win a lot of points knowing that. There are many unknown factors (LIKE WHAT?) here in this hand but you guys set it up nicely so that it works for a particular scenario that is very rare and limited. (I DISAGREE, FREQUENTLY A FACTOR.) I agree it is important to recognize these scenarios as they develop. However to say this is the right play all the time, I say no it's not. (NO ONE CLAIMED THAT? AT LEAST NOT ME. HOW IN THE WORLD DID YOU DRAW THOSE CONCLUSIONS THAT ANY OTHER SITUATION THIS APPLIED TO? TAKING MY COMMENTS COMPLETELY OUT OF CONTEXT.)
Not even close and if you play it like this frequently its going to lead to trouble. (LIKE WHAT AND WHEN, IT IS YOU MOVING THE GOAL POSTS.)

SO NOW YOU CAN MOVE THE GOAL POSTS BY GIVING EXAMPLES? I can think of some like two off suit singletons. I would not lead the Right. But that is totally a different situation. And I would lead the right if I had the boss card of the doubleton. And not with an off suit Ace. But I am waiting on this Fishing trip of yours.

~IRISHWOLF

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:11 am

Tbolt65 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:15 pm
I have said this before. That thurs night cash game is not as tough of a game you think it is, but considering the type of players you have mostly played with in your short career as a euchre player. I can understand how that it may seem that way to you, ala Karman app and the majority of people at Thurs Night tournament.

This is such a dumb argument. Look man I have played around 28K games of euchre ok (Karman/Monday night/Thru/home games/other apps). That's more than 99.99% will play in their lifetime. There's no reason to denigrate the Karman app. It's not special in any way. It's not worse than other apps/sites or better. No matter where anyone plays it's going to be the same story. Around 99% of the players will suck to varying degrees becuz it's just a game to them, a relaxing time waster basically. And then you'll have around 1% who are mentally ill enough to take this game seriously and become really good/great at it. Due the to volume of games I've played over the last 3 years, I've played in plenty of tough games on the app. They invariably happen when you get the games in. In fact I can pretty confidently say over the last 3 years probably no one on the planet has played in as many tough games as me. This is not a brag, just a mathematical reality. Even if 99% of the population sux, if you get 28K games in, you'll still play in a lot of tough games. And since tough games are inherently rare, due to sheer volume you'll play in more of those games than anyone else on average. And that's what I've done.

I suspect the real reason you love to knock the karman games app is becuz you've always struggled on it. That's on you man. Suck it up and learn how to play 1 vs 3. It's an artform in itself. Playing 2 vs 2 when you have a P you can trust is easy street. Come after my record. Get to 5 crowns in less than 305 games. I'll give you $100 if you ever beat that. Spoiler alert: You won't.

Anyways, I've played on most of the apps (mostly due to getting banned on the Karman app multiple times lol). It's all the same man. Anybody that says there's a real difference in player pools is deluding themselves. In reality the Karman app will have more great players than any other app simply becuz it is the most popular app (I believe). Don't know of any other app that gets around 10K players per day.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:15 pm
I consider Monday/Friday night OE games tougher because of the awareness of various calling and types of play.


That's a great thing to say, but it doesn't change the reality that it's not true. Phil is a 4 time yearly champion (the most in the tournament). Pat is a 3 time yearly champion. Both those players are also the only players to ever repeat as champions (Phil in 2012/13 and Pat in 2017/18). Phil btw is also the only player that I have ever seen win the weekly tournament 3 weeks in a row. Winning that yearly championship is f**king hard. We should appreciate that. Both these players are strong thinking players who are constantly coming after us on defense. Nothing you can say will change the reality that THAT game is the toughest game we likely will ever play in, in real life. The Monday/Friday night games are not tougher than that game. No way. Those are great games too but not tougher than that game.

Now do I think we're better than Phil/Pat. Yes, becuz we study the game more than they do, and they do make more mistakes than we do. But our edge vs them is still thin. If we win 55% vs them in the long run I would be happy. To think that game is "not as tough as a game", there has to be some kind of cognitive bias going on. Like you're probably just remembering the mistakes they make that we don't, but you're desensitized to all the routine great things they do becuz they are supposed to do those great things. I don't take those things for granted. I have a healthy respect for those guys' games. They have accomplished things I haven't. I have never won the yearly championship 2 years in a row and I have never won the weekly tournament 3 weeks in a row.
Last edited by Wes (aka the legend) on Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:35 am

Tbolt65 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 11:55 pm
I'm sorry but this is monday night quaterbacking here.

You don't know Wolf if that's what you think is going on.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 11:55 pm
You can't not reasonably ask for the Maker to lead the Right bauer here. No matter how many times you say this and that. It still doesn't change the fact that the Queen of hearts is unaccounted for amongst the trump that hasn't been seen, you have to play accordingly. There are various factors stated that was left out, which are crucial. You are only tested for a limited available presets and confined them to the one scenario the Left is not protected.

My understanding is Wolf DID NOT do that. In his sample S1 can have an unguarded Left, a guarded Left, or no Left at all. From the dealer's perspective there are 12 unseen cards before he makes a move on trick 3. Here's the 12 unseen cards Wolf is shuffling before each sample:

(Card_A-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-S)
(Card_K-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_10-D)
(Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-C)
(Card_Q-H)

Wolf is shuffling those 12 cards and dealing them out to S1, S2, and S3. The only adjustment Wolf would have to make is any time he deals out a hand that S1/S2/S3 would've called with initially he'd have to scrap that sample and reshuffle to keep the distribution right. Even if he never made that adjustment, his sample would still be a pretty good approximation of reality since this problem won't come up that often.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 11:55 pm
If you know the left is not protected yeah your going to Win a lot of points knowing that. There are many unknown factors here in this hand but you guys set it up nicely so that it works for a particular scenario that is very rare and limited. I agree it is important to recognize these scenarios as they develop. However to say this is the right play all the time, I say no it's not. Not even close and if you play it like this frequently its going to lead to trouble.
It's not "set up nicely" and Wolf and I do not care if this "particular scenario is very rare". We only care about what is the best line in this particular scenario. Nobody says leading the Right is "the right play all the time". We are talking about only this particular scenario.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 11:55 pm
With the one current hand we are currently critiquing from the Friday night game, with the information given by all players. It is absolutely wrong to lead trump. You would hurt your chances at pulling your partners trump out, unprotecting your Right/Ace and then hoping the queen is not in play and the left is not protected. Too much to ask for and your hoping the perfect scenario arises out of that play so that everything goes right.

Tbolt65
Edward
Feeling strong about something doesn't make it true. Again we're talking about this particular scenario--given the cards already played--with a player in the 1S that doesn't miss euchre opportunities. If you're that skeptical about Wolf's work, you can always do your own sample.

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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:59 am

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:41 am
??? I don't know what you are trying say Ed. I think you are trying to move the goal posts when the Hand presented was exactly that the Dealer had JC AC QC JH 10H.

He loses the first trick and wins the the next with the QC. So where do you go from there if you are the Dealer?

There are only 12 cards remaining, and he QH (leading it) is actually just an obstacle. It will be 33% Stock, S1 or S2. It will get trumped and if if trumped by S3 and S1 has JS (guarded or unguarded) and has a void to S3 lead you get a euchre (3 diamonds and 4 spades he behind the dealer).

Lead trump (JC) and now the QH might win a trick. At least better than not leading trump.

With that hand if he wins the first trick is a different situation and fishing is probably correct but that is moving the goal posts and so is any other holding and what happens accordingly. Of course ADJUST!

But I think you missed the point on a particular situation. You can't do better than leading the JC to the 3rd trick. If so, please explain?

I'm sorry but this is monday night quaterbacking here. You can't not reasonably ask for the Maker to lead the Right bauer here. No matter how many times you say this and that. It still doesn't change the fact that the Queen of hearts is unaccounted for amongst the trump that hasn't been seen, you have to play accordingly. There are various factors stated that was left out, which are crucial. You are only tested for a limited available presets and confined them to the one scenario the Left is not protected.
OF COURSE BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT THE HAND AND SITUATION WAS. NOT ABOUT ALL OR ANY OTHER!

If you know the left is not protected yeah your going to Win a lot of points knowing that. There are many unknown factors (LIKE WHAT?) here in this hand but you guys set it up nicely so that it works for a particular scenario that is very rare and limited. (I DISAGREE, FREQUENTLY A FACTOR.) I agree it is important to recognize these scenarios as they develop. However to say this is the right play all the time, I say no it's not. (NO ONE CLAIMED THAT? AT LEAST NOT ME. HOW IN THE WORLD DID YOU DRAW THOSE CONCLUSIONS THAT ANY OTHER SITUATION THIS APPLIED TO? TAKING MY COMMENTS COMPLETELY OUT OF CONTEXT.)
Not even close and if you play it like this frequently its going to lead to trouble. (LIKE WHAT AND WHEN, IT IS YOU MOVING THE GOAL POSTS.)

SO NOW YOU CAN MOVE THE GOAL POSTS BY GIVING EXAMPLES? I can think of some like two off suit singletons. I would not lead the Right. But that is totally a different situation. And I would lead the right if I had the boss card of the doubleton. And not with an off suit Ace. But I am waiting on this Fishing trip of yours.

~IRISHWOLF

I've already outlined and spoken of the information for this one hand, in two posts. Keeping in mind I am not taking into consideration we have already seen everyone's cards. Perhaps our assessments of information of play is different and that's how you can possibly justify your thoughts to perhaps leading the Right. I am fine if you want to roll the dice and take a gamble with other thoughts and conceptions in mind about what is left in everyone's hand based on the information stemming up to Round three into the hand. That if you feel taking the shot of leading trump will help your team. Those are sometimes necessary calls to go against the typical play. These on the spot adjustments for those rare situations is something not many people know how or even want to do. So if thats what your getting at I'm cool with it. But if that's not what your doing here and you just advocating just because you think it will work and you try to justify it because you already have seen everyone's hand and you now see other plays. Then that is what I'm disagreeing with.


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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:11 am
Tbolt65 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:15 pm
I have said this before. That thurs night cash game is not as tough of a game you think it is, but considering the type of players you have mostly played with in your short career as a euchre player. I can understand how that it may seem that way to you, ala Karman app and the majority of people at Thurs Night tournament.

This is such a dumb argument. Look man I have played around 28K games of euchre ok (Karman/Monday night/Thru/home games/other apps). That's more than 99.99% will play in their lifetime. There's no reason to denigrate the Karman app. It's not special in any way. It's not worse than other apps/sites or better. No matter where anyone plays it's going to be the same story. Around 99% of the players will suck to varying degrees becuz it's just a game to them, a relaxing time waster basically. And then you'll have around 1% who are mentally ill enough to take this game seriously and become really good/great at it. Due the to volume of games I've played over the last 3 years, I've played in plenty of tough games on the app. They invariably happen when you get the games in. In fact I can pretty confidently say over the last 3 years probably no one on the planet has played in as many tough games as me. This is not a brag, just a mathematical reality. Even if 99% of the population sux, if you get 28K games in, you'll still play in a lot of tough games. And since tough games are inherently rare, due to sheer volume you'll play in more of those games than anyone else on average. And that's what I've done.

It's not an argument, it's an observation. The Karman app, breeds bad play, with the go under. Players will be much weaker as a whole. The little time I did play there when I first came back to euchre and when you told me about it. I've only played two accounts. I've literally stopped playing there. The volume of games played there you have dwarfs what I have. You are an expert on and at play with the Karman app, with everything that goes with it. That allows you various insights and understandings of how best to play. Wes I am not Knocking your abilities to play. I actually respect your play because you have the ability to see and do things not many people can do. This only comes through tons of play and rigorously trying to play the best you can.



I suspect the real reason you love to knock the karman games app is becuz you've always struggled on it. That's on you man. Suck it up and learn how to play 1 vs 3. It's an artform in itself. Playing 2 vs 2 when you have a P you can trust is easy street. Come after my record. Get to 5 crowns in less than 305 games. I'll give you $100 if you ever beat that. Spoiler alert: You won't.

Shaking my head hardly. In my hay day of euchre and when I had more time and whenI was more full of myself( I did have a little bit of an ego in that regards) I would make you eat the $100. You know it's true. I've always said since coming back to euchre, that I am not my full self at playing and that's me being honest about myself and my game. My game right now is getting better daily because I am playing a little more and I'm starting to see cards better and making those adjustments to my game on the fly faster, plus seeing scenario's when they come up. I'm starting to get close to my peak euchre. That's why it has me excited, however I've been having a very, very very hard time lately remembering ordered up suits and turn downs. Never had that problem before.
It actually cost us a game on friday night euchre last week. It's a minor thing that is correctable.


Anyways, I've played on most of the apps (mostly due to getting banned on the Karman app multiple times lol). It's all the same man. Anybody that says there's a real difference in player pools is deluding themselves. In reality the Karman app will have more great players than any other app simply becuz it is the most popular app (I believe). Don't know of any other app that gets around 10K players per day.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:15 pm
I consider Monday/Friday night OE games tougher because of the awareness of various calling and types of play.


That's a great thing to say, but it doesn't change the reality that it's not true. Phil is a 4 time yearly champion (the most in the tournament). Pat is a 3 time yearly champion. Both those players are also the only players to ever repeat as champions (Phil in 2012/13 and Pat in 2017/18). Phil btw is also the only player that I have ever seen win the weekly tournament 3 weeks in a row. Winning that yearly championship is f**king hard. We should appreciate that. Both these players are strong thinking players who are constantly coming after us on defense. Nothing you can say will change the reality that THAT game is the toughest game we likely will ever play in, in real life. The Monday/Friday night games are not tougher than that game. No way. Those are great games too but not tougher than that game.

I've played in tougher games than that. That is why I keep saying it. That is also why I keep saying for you it might be a tough game. Don't get me wrong. No disrespect to Phil or Pat.
They are good players but the highly discriminating and perfectionist that thrusted me to be the player I am today and from what I've seen. They are not as well rounded as myself or you as a player.


Now do I think we're better than Phil/Pat. Yes, becuz we study the game more than they do, and they do make more mistakes than we do. But our edge vs them is still thin. If we win 55% vs them in the long run I would be happy. To think that game is "not as tough as a game", there has to be some kind of cognitive bias going on. Like you're probably just remembering the mistakes they make that we don't, but you're desensitized to all the routine great things they do becuz they are supposed to do those great things. I don't take those things for granted. I have a healthy respect for those guys' games. They have accomplished things I haven't. I have never won the yearly championship 2 years in a row and I have never won the weekly tournament 3 weeks in a row.

There is no cognitive bias going on. That's just me being a realist. Wes you will, win. You will win and win more in my opinion and here is why. Those guys can't adjust to their weaker partners. They have a particular play rigid play style. You can adjust. You've played on the Karman app, where the players are atrocious. You've learned how to over come that. Trust me when I say, you will eventually become champion, because the more new people we get in like you've already said. It makes it more of a crap shoot. You and myself will have a better time at adjusting to that then Phil/Pat. Like I said in the above paragraph. Don't get wrong I think Pat and Phil are good they are the 3rd and 4th best players there. I say that with full confidence. I seen that when I first started playing and my mind hasn't change since I've been playing thurs nights since I started. Also here is some raw data for you since I started keeping track of our games with Phil/Pat. Our Record is 41-26(I'm fairly sure that's accurate but sometimes I feel i didn't add the 2-1 from not this week but the week before. I may of forgot. Its been nagging me. I think I did though) Anyways with a total of 67 games in we are at a 61.2% win rate with them so far and it's only going to widen In my opinion. How far? It's hard to say.


Tbolt65
Edward


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Unread post by LeftyK » Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:29 pm

"It's not an argument, it's an observation. The Karman app, breeds bad play, with the go under. Players will be much weaker as a whole" - Karman app is garbage and well stated Edward. I mean,I got to 47 rated in just 18 days on that app. the under is for kids. and trickster has plenty of good players (at least 10K a night) on there. last I checked 86K played just the euchre portion of it.

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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:16 pm

In truth, my comments have NOTHING to do with see everyone's hands other than the dealer. My as it I was the dealer and trumped the AS, looked at what was played to tricks 1 & 2. Then access what I have and of course ADJUST my strategy for completing three tricks for a point. I need two more and what is the course of action to do just that. I actually take offense at your comments suggesting I would only play according to what I have now observed with the other three players. That would be dishonest, because I suggested that with what the dealer has I would ALWAYS play as I posted. The reason I even posted is because I disagreed with the dealer leading the JH to the 3rd trick. And, this is NOT a "rare hand" holding by the dealer. I see it all the time and not just from the dealer seat.

In addition, I count all the cards, who played what as to my ADJUSTMENT during the game. I am not a robot, every trick gives information, I adjust my five card strategy accordingly.

Now you suggested playing whatever hand holdings by going FISH. I expect you to respond with some hands and facts as to what and when. Your two posts about the hand was not worth anything to a good player. It was responded. What you say about this being a pull You said it was Monday Morning QB'ing. It is hand analysis for the benefit of the readers of OE. The original comments you made were about the LEFT being played too quickly. Apparently, you failed to see the correct play by the dealer. True, not as bad as playing the Left but still was it correct to play the JH vs JC? I say NO!

Then I was so positive that it was correct I dealt and play hands and it showed the JC is much better course of action. So you need to give those hands to GO Fish on! And I already game you one. So where are those hands that you say are NOT RARE? I don't think you know? What you posted is how you normally play the hand and disagree without some facts other than saying the crap you did.

~IRISHWOLF


Ed said, "I've already outlined and spoken of the information for this one hand, in two posts. Keeping in mind I am not taking into consideration we have already seen everyone's cards. Perhaps our assessments of information of play is different and that's how you can possibly justify your thoughts to perhaps leading the Right. I am fine if you want to roll the dice and take a gamble with other thoughts and conceptions in mind about what is left in everyone's hand based on the information stemming up to Round three into the hand. That if you feel taking the shot of leading trump will help your team. Those are sometimes necessary calls to go against the typical play. These on the spot adjustments for those rare situations is something not many people know how or even want to do..."

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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:40 pm

Your not directly saying it but Im going to infer to your logical processes it was based on your observations and how you look at things to make or come to that possible decision on possible plays. You see it one way, I see it another way. Both have their merits and both have their reasoning.

Like I've already said. I'm ok with other lines of thought as long as proper in the moment hand deduction is going on. We all have to be open to that. Any competitive player will want their partners to be adjusting this way for the right reasons.

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:31 am

LeftyK wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:29 pm
"It's not an argument, it's an observation. The Karman app, breeds bad play, with the go under. Players will be much weaker as a whole" - Karman app is garbage and well stated Edward. I mean,I got to 47 rated in just 18 days on that app. the under is for kids. and trickster has plenty of good players (at least 10K a night) on there. last I checked 86K played just the euchre portion of it.
It's the same everywhere guys. No matter where you play the vast majority will be varying degrees of suck, and then you have a tiny minority that take the game seriously who range from very good to great, this is true of all apps/sites and I suspect probably true of all euchre meetups/tournaments. We don't need to pretend one site is better/worse than the rest. Altho if I had to throw my hat in that speculative ring I would say the players on WOCGs are the worst I've seen but I don't take my own views seriously on that becuz the probability my glitchy human brain is seeing patterns when they're are none is too high. The default position should be what I've said above, and we would actually need real evidence to conclude otherwise becuz claiming one site is significantly better than the other is the more extraordinary claim.

There's also no reason to think the "go under" breeds bad play. The primary breeder of bad play is people simply not taking the game that seriously cuz they understandably got other priorities or more passionate hobbies in life. What the go under does is make the game tougher on the expert as it's another variable he must constantly keep track of becuz the correct play in a hand can hinge on whether your opponents or your P went under or not. The go under also increases variance in the game and hurts the expert's edge. In this form of euchre your opponents will have a stronger range on average and the kitty wont be there to save you. So this is a much tougher or more frustrating form of euchre. But it's good practice becuz once you go from the karman app to standard euchre the game is so much easier. Now your opponent's range is weaker than you're used to and now the kitty will save you way more often. To use a basketball analogy, playing on Karman is like playing basketball with a slightly smaller rim to shoot through. It's a bit tougher to make a shot. Once you do that for awhile and then play in a standard game with a regulation sized rim, it can feel like shooting a basketball into an ocean.

I didn't know trickster was so popular. Wow. I played on there a few years ago.

Also, getting to 47 in 18 days doesn't tell us much. The relevant metric is games played not days played. I've gotten to 50 in 4 days before but that doesn't necessarily tell you I'm great at euchre. More likely it tells you I have no life and may have a problem lol. As far as games played, my record to 50 is in 97 games, and my record to 100 is in 305 games. I'm still shooting for a sub-300 account. I've had a couple shots at it. It's definitely doable. Just gotta make close to zero mistakes which isn't exactly easy cuz so many of my games I'm playing in the middle of the night half asleep or playing while distracted watching TV or something lol. Also obviously gotta not run bad. Either way, it's a fun game within a game to me, trying to get to 100 in as little games as possible.

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:56 am

Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
It's not an argument, it's an observation. The Karman app, breeds bad play, with the go under. Players will be much weaker as a whole.

There's no good reason to believe that.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
The little time I did play there when I first came back to euchre and when you told me about it. I've only played two accounts. I've literally stopped playing there.

You gotta admit tho it's the most user friendly app/site with the best graphics.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
The volume of games played there you have dwarfs what I have. You are an expert on and at play with the Karman app, with everything that goes with it. That allows you various insights and understandings of how best to play. Wes I am not Knocking your abilities to play. I actually respect your play because you have the ability to see and do things not many people can do. This only comes through tons of play and rigorously trying to play the best you can.
All the karman app really is, is a slightly tougher form of euchre as I talked about in my post to Mike. Playing on it just makes standard euchre that much easier becuz you'll have less to think about and a bigger edge.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
Shaking my head hardly. In my hay day of euchre and when I had more time and whenI was more full of myself( I did have a little bit of an ego in that regards) I would make you eat the $100. You know it's true. I've always said since coming back to euchre, that I am not my full self at playing and that's me being honest about myself and my game. My game right now is getting better daily because I am playing a little more and I'm starting to see cards better and making those adjustments to my game on the fly faster, plus seeing scenario's when they come up. I'm starting to get close to my peak euchre. That's why it has me excited, however I've been having a very, very very hard time lately remembering ordered up suits and turn downs. Never had that problem before.
It actually cost us a game on friday night euchre last week. It's a minor thing that is correctable.
You're doing fine. That mistake can happen to anyone. Also, I'm pretty sure out of everyone in the game, you work the most hours and probably get the worst sleep. It's virtually impossible to play mistake free under that condition. I suspect, Don, Wolf, and Richard are all retired and I have no clue what Mike does, probably a drug dealer. What matters more are the mistakes we make that we don't know are mistakes. That's why I'm so excited by the fact that I now have the tools to test all first round scenarios. Problem is life keeps getting in the way stopping me from getting momentum on doing the samples.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
I've played in tougher games than that. That is why I keep saying it. That is also why I keep saying for you it might be a tough game. Don't get me wrong. No disrespect to Phil or Pat.
They are good players but the highly discriminating and perfectionist that thrusted me to be the player I am today and from what I've seen. They are not as well rounded as myself or you as a player.
Look I think we're better than them too, but we live in Vegas, not Michigan or Ohio. That's the toughest game we will ever probably play in--in real life--unless we go on a road trip or something but I hate travelling or leaving the house in general.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
There is no cognitive bias going on. That's just me being a realist. Wes you will, win. You will win and win more in my opinion and here is why. Those guys can't adjust to their weaker partners. They have a particular play rigid play style.

Dude, you are completely underestimating those guys. They are smart, thinking players. You can't get the kind've of success they have achieved without adjusting to your opponents and partners. Winning that yearly championship is really f**king hard and they've done it 7 times between them.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
You can adjust. You've played on the Karman app, where the players are atrocious. You've learned how to over come that. Trust me when I say, you will eventually become champion, because the more new people we get in like you've already said. It makes it more of a crap shoot. You and myself will have a better time at adjusting to that then Phil/Pat. Like I said in the above paragraph. Don't get wrong I think Pat and Phil are good they are the 3rd and 4th best players there. I say that with full confidence. I seen that when I first started playing and my mind hasn't change since I've been playing thurs nights since I started. Also here is some raw data for you since I started keeping track of our games with Phil/Pat. Our Record is 41-26(I'm fairly sure that's accurate but sometimes I feel i didn't add the 2-1 from not this week but the week before. I may of forgot. Its been nagging me. I think I did though) Anyways with a total of 67 games in we are at a 61.2% win rate with them so far and it's only going to widen In my opinion. How far? It's hard to say.


Tbolt65
Edward

Our record vs them so far is 42-29 and I'm near positive on that (59.15% win rate). Still a small sample. Not much to conclude there. Like I said before if we win 55% I'll be tickled pink. Those guys are really good players. We're not that much better than them no matter what your "little bit of an ego" may think :)

Edit: I think I can explain why your numbers are off (41-26) vs mine (42-29). Looks like you forgot to record our nightmare session! where we went 1-3 a few weeks ago.

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Unread post by LeftyK » Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:24 pm

" I have no clue what Mike does, probably a drug dealer. What matters more are the mistakes we make that we don't know are mistakes" ==== Far from it Wes- try tech support for a major US Bank for the past 23 years :>) and I like the basketball analogy... all I remember on Karman app after 2300 games was I had 58.1% win and took screenshot of those before their app decided playing on an amazon fire with android OS (jailbreak) wasn't kosher.

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:12 pm

LeftyK wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:24 pm
and I like the basketball analogy... all I remember on Karman app after 2300 games was I had 58.1% win and took screenshot of those before their app decided playing on an amazon fire with android OS (jailbreak) wasn't kosher.
58% is a very good win%. Imo anything above 55% is good on that site.

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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:12 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:56 am
Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
It's not an argument, it's an observation. The Karman app, breeds bad play, with the go under. Players will be much weaker as a whole.

There's no good reason to believe that.

No good reason? That statement alone shows/tells your true thinking of me as a euchre player as a whole. Not as a competent and expertly understanding of the game or players or even capable of doing so in such a fashion. It could be just you don't think I'm as good as you. That At least would be understandable. Maybe you don't even think its possible for anyone to be able to come to that conclusion.

Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
The little time I did play there when I first came back to euchre and when you told me about it. I've only played two accounts. I've literally stopped playing there.

You gotta admit tho it's the most user friendly app/site with the best graphics.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
The volume of games played there you have dwarfs what I have. You are an expert on and at play with the Karman app, with everything that goes with it. That allows you various insights and understandings of how best to play. Wes I am not Knocking your abilities to play. I actually respect your play because you have the ability to see and do things not many people can do. This only comes through tons of play and rigorously trying to play the best you can.
All the karman app really is, is a slightly tougher form of euchre as I talked about in my post to Mike. Playing on it just makes standard euchre that much easier becuz you'll have less to think about and a bigger edge.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
Shaking my head hardly. In my hay day of euchre and when I had more time and whenI was more full of myself( I did have a little bit of an ego in that regards) I would make you eat the $100. You know it's true. I've always said since coming back to euchre, that I am not my full self at playing and that's me being honest about myself and my game. My game right now is getting better daily because I am playing a little more and I'm starting to see cards better and making those adjustments to my game on the fly faster, plus seeing scenario's when they come up. I'm starting to get close to my peak euchre. That's why it has me excited, however I've been having a very, very very hard time lately remembering ordered up suits and turn downs. Never had that problem before.
It actually cost us a game on friday night euchre last week. It's a minor thing that is correctable.
You're doing fine. That mistake can happen to anyone. Also, I'm pretty sure out of everyone in the game, you work the most hours and probably get the worst sleep. It's virtually impossible to play mistake free under that condition. I suspect, Don, Wolf, and Richard are all retired and I have no clue what Mike does, probably a drug dealer. What matters more are the mistakes we make that we don't know are mistakes. That's why I'm so excited by the fact that I now have the tools to test all first round scenarios. Problem is life keeps getting in the way stopping me from getting momentum on doing the samples.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
I've played in tougher games than that. That is why I keep saying it. That is also why I keep saying for you it might be a tough game. Don't get me wrong. No disrespect to Phil or Pat.
They are good players but the highly discriminating and perfectionist that thrusted me to be the player I am today and from what I've seen. They are not as well rounded as myself or you as a player.
Look I think we're better than them too, but we live in Vegas, not Michigan or Ohio. That's the toughest game we will ever probably play in--in real life--unless we go on a road trip or something but I hate travelling or leaving the house in general.


Online is where you will find the toughest games. Or big live tournaments. From my experience.



There is no cognitive bias going on. That's just me being a realist. Wes you will, win. You will win and win more in my opinion and here is why. Those guys can't adjust to their weaker partners. They have a particular play rigid play style.

Dude, you are completely underestimating those guys. They are smart, thinking players. You can't get the kind've of success they have achieved without adjusting to your opponents and partners. Winning that yearly championship is really f**king hard and they've done it 7 times between them.

Being a realist is not underestimating. And trust me I never underestimate anyone. When I say something its not out of ego or to say they are not good. It's just telling the truth from my perspective, my understanding and my accomplishments(I can list them if you would like) as a hardcore euchre player. When someone is better than me I will say it. I have no insecurities about not being the best.

Tbolt65 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:39 pm
You can adjust. You've played on the Karman app, where the players are atrocious. You've learned how to over come that. Trust me when I say, you will eventually become champion, because the more new people we get in like you've already said. It makes it more of a crap shoot. You and myself will have a better time at adjusting to that then Phil/Pat. Like I said in the above paragraph. Don't get wrong I think Pat and Phil are good they are the 3rd and 4th best players there. I say that with full confidence. I seen that when I first started playing and my mind hasn't change since I've been playing thurs nights since I started. Also here is some raw data for you since I started keeping track of our games with Phil/Pat. Our Record is 41-26(I'm fairly sure that's accurate but sometimes I feel i didn't add the 2-1 from not this week but the week before. I may of forgot. Its been nagging me. I think I did though) Anyways with a total of 67 games in we are at a 61.2% win rate with them so far and it's only going to widen In my opinion. How far? It's hard to say.


Tbolt65
Edward

Our record vs them so far is 42-29 and I'm near positive on that (59.15% win rate). Still a small sample. Not much to conclude there. Like I said before if we win 55% I'll be tickled pink. Those guys are really good players. We're not that much better than them no matter what your "little bit of an ego" may think :)

Wes you will eventually realize there is another level to euchre especially at the highest end of play. I keep preaching about the little things and this will be that which separate the good players from great players. Every minor detail is that much more exposed. Im sorry to do it to you but Lefty however good that he is. And he is a good player. Is the weakest link in overall play as a whole in the ohioeuchre games. That doesnt make him bad, quiet from it. Its just he's not well versed or rounded in certain areas of his game. Wes, we are that much better than pat and phil. That is no ego but straight up truth in my professional opinion.

Edit: I think I can explain why your numbers are off (41-26) vs mine (42-29). Looks like you forgot to record our nightmare session! where we went 1-3 a few weeks ago.
[/quote]


ok that makes sense I did then forget the previous, previous week.



Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:02 pm

I was looking for to this Fishing trip, still waiting. When to fish and when to bust down the doors. I might learn something new? I have an open mind, entertain me Darth Vater.

Previously said (by me), "Now you suggested playing whatever hand holdings by going FISH. I expect you to respond with some hands and facts as to what and when. Your two posts about the hand was not worth anything to a good player. It was responded. What you say about this being a pull You said it was Monday Morning QB'ing. It is hand analysis for the benefit of the readers of OE. The original comments you made were about the LEFT being played too quickly. Apparently, you failed to see the correct play by the dealer. True, not as bad as playing the Left but still was it correct to play the JH vs JC? I say NO!"

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:10 pm

You can package, game it how ever you want. You can even theorize well lets see what would of happened here. I still have and always maintain, with the information on the board. There is no way it is even possible one should consider to lead the right. I did however go on to say, if your thinking that gambling here in the moment and taking your shot that maybe certain cards are buried or maybe certain cards are not protected. With that line of thinking I am ok with. If you postulate Anything else, it is just making things up as you go to suit your narrative AFTER THE FACT!!!!!! You have to play with reasonable expectation and reasonable doubt. If that leads you one way or the other than that is logical deduction, logical thinking and is a on the spot adjustment. No matter what math you try to justify in this scenario. Its still after the fact and you only have information to go on as it is unfolding. So if you want to run your test and say as an after thought to show some stats a woulda, coulda scenario. You go right ahead. I am all in favor of criticizing and analyzing hands that are close that if one played a different way perhaps success could be had. That however starts at the table, in the moment and being able to read, recognize and understand the possible set up , card holdings and play, if a particular scenario where to unfold. If you want see how "x" scenario unfolds with certain play that's fine, but things changes drastically with improper data/information.





Tbolt65
Edward

edit: And that darth vader comment I made to wes was in jest, to show my disappointment with his last sentence reply to me from that thread. Nothing more than that.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:53 pm

NO NO NO, not a gamble, it is the math and statistics of those 4 trumps leading the Right vs the JH. Seriously, not a guess as to the 'best' line play!

But you know what is Ironic? How you play this hand from the dealer position, dealer has for example JC QC AH KH 9H (off suit head an Ace) and you win the first trick with the small trump. You without failure, lead the Right. Wrong move! That now is when you should go fishing as only 3 unknown hearts and you need your partner in the worst way. This is a fishing trip! Just saying!

" . . .if your thinking that gambling here in the moment and taking your shot that maybe certain cards are buried or maybe certain cards are not protected. With that line of thinking I am ok with. If you postulate Anything else, it is just making things up as you go to suit your narrative AFTER THE FACT!!!!!! You have to play with reasonable expectation and reasonable doubt."

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:03 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:53 pm
NO NO NO, not a gamble, it is the math and statistics of those 4 trumps leading the Right vs the JH. Seriously, not a guess as to the 'best' line play!

But you know what is Ironic? How you play this hand from the dealer position, dealer has for example JC QC AH KH 9H (off suit head an Ace) and you win the first trick with the small trump. You without failure, lead the Right. Wrong move! That now is when you should go fishing as only 3 unknown hearts and you need your partner in the worst way. This is a fishing trip! Just saying!

" . . .if your thinking that gambling here in the moment and taking your shot that maybe certain cards are buried or maybe certain cards are not protected. With that line of thinking I am ok with. If you postulate Anything else, it is just making things up as you go to suit your narrative AFTER THE FACT!!!!!! You have to play with reasonable expectation and reasonable doubt."

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on that type of hand and how you break it down as to in what fashion you would play it and why.


Yes, I do realize your referencing a hand I had as dealer where I was euchred on.



As an aside. Math is still a form of gambling but your just rolling with the percentages and expected outcome. The only time anyone regardless of deduction or mathematical analysis is not gambling is when its an absolute.


Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:36 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:53 pm
NO NO NO, not a gamble, it is the math and statistics of those 4 trumps leading the Right vs the JH. Seriously, not a guess as to the 'best' line play!
I think we can distill what Wolf is saying and what his data is backing up into a working formula: If the tricks are 1-1 and the maker/dealer has the lead on 3rd street with AJ in trump + a 2nd best non-fresh offsuit where the boss is either in S1/S2/Kitty AND S1 will not incorrectly blow his Left if the maker tries the endplay, then leading the JC is best. This is certainly a spot I have always wondered about and without even looking at the data what Wolf is saying seems really plausible. The JC being the best lead is not surprising to me
irishwolf wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:53 pm
But you know what is Ironic? How you play this hand from the dealer position, dealer has for example JC QC AH KH 9H (off suit head an Ace) and you win the first trick with the small trump. You without failure, lead the Right. Wrong move! That now is when you should go fishing as only 3 unknown hearts and you need your partner in the worst way. This is a fishing trip! Just saying!
This is another spot I have always wondered about! I too take the same line as Edward but I have never been confident in it. What's now really cool about this is this spot should be easily testable. But without doing the sample, I would bet on Wolf being right given his conviction.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:44 pm

Tbolt65 wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:03 pm
I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on that type of hand and how you break it down as to in what fashion you would play it and why.
When broken down it will look something like this:
Me: I think we can distill what Wolf is saying and what his data is backing up into a working formula: If the tricks are 1-1 and the maker/dealer has the lead on 3rd street with AJ in trump + a 2nd best non-fresh offsuit where the boss is either in S1/S2/Kitty AND S1 will not incorrectly blow his Left if the maker tries the endplay, then leading the JC is best.
Tbolt65 wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:03 pm
As an aside. Math is still a form of gambling but your just rolling with the percentages and expected outcome. The only time anyone regardless of deduction or mathematical analysis is not gambling is when its an absolute.


Tbolt65
Edward
He's saying what is correct or not in this hand is not a gamble. Like it's not some kind of toss up. He's saying the correct line is known.

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