OE games 3-29-21 - 2nd lead

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Dlan
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OE games 3-29-21 - 2nd lead

Unread post by Dlan » Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:04 am

After taking the first trick, what would you lead next?

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irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:22 pm

There is no 100% certainty here. Dealer really only has two tricks here.

Either the QS or KH is the correct card to play on trick 2. In Euchre it always sometimes you play it this way and sometimes that way. So why the KH on trick 2 - because you need your partner to take a trick with either AH or slough or trump the KH. As soon as S1 plays the AS you have to suspect he might have the JS. And the KS is still unknown after trick 2. The probabilities for helping with the JS is the same for the AH. And for both to be against you is slim.

But to me, what tips the tide to leading the KH is that your partner may have a trump KS or 10S to trump that KH. When you have KH/JH, I like leading the KH. It can backfire if S3 has AH/QH, but slim chance and it now brings into action for S2 to help out. Just an opinion.


What is odd, is S1 played the AS correctly but why did he not lead back the JS to trick 3? He has to figure at this point (JC KS are unknown) the dealer has the KS or JC and S2 may have the other that the dealer does not. He has boss QD for the euchre.

Then he let the Heart trick go as the Dealer (I guess thinking S2 has KS but makes no sense to not lead the JS to trick 3) already played 3 trumps and his QD was boss card??

Someone explain the logic here, please?

Nuts!

~Irishwolf

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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Thu Apr 01, 2021 1:28 pm

the logic? I totally blew it. If I was thinking clearly I would have led the right back OR trumped in on 4th and my P gets high clubs last trick for the euchre. I'm sure this hand was after we were up 2-0 and my P didn't call next when I had 3 and we would have been up 3-0. plus, I wasn;'t getting cards that night so I tuned out too.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:47 pm

What S4 should lead after taking the first trick with no off ace to promote (trump or offsuit) is a common debate around here. Me and Don are in one camp, lead offsuit. Edward is in the other camp, lead trump. I believe Mike is in the lead trump camp too based on observing his play (If I'm wrong Mike correct me).

In this instance tho I think leading trump has to be a mistake, specifically when S4 has taken the first trick, has no off ace to promote and critically S4 likely has another trick locked up with this guarded left. If S4 had two low trump in this spot, I think the argument for leading trump is stronger (I still wouldn't do it) but when S4 has that guarded Left with one trick already won, IOW when his team likely has 2 tricks already locked up, he's gotta hold back and try to see if his P can help and take a trick. (I think Edward might agree with me on this permutation. Let me know what you think Edward)

If S4 leads the offsuit there's two ways his P can help him, by having the AH or being void in hearts and trumping in. When S4 leads trump he often relegates his P to having only one way to help him, with an off ace somewhere, and to top it off leading from a guarded Left exposes S4 more often to getting stripped and thus getting no trick from his guarded Left.

Ok now onto S1's play. S1 made a very critical mistake by not playing for the euchre. S1 correctly plays the AS and takes the 2nd trick, he also knows his P is void in trump and S2 could possibly have another trump. It is absolutely critical that S1 lead the right here and possibly take out 2 more enemy trump with one lead. After the 2nd lead, there are two trump left in the wild from S1's perspective. S1 also knows he has the boss Qd. What this means is EVERY TIME S2 has a trump or that trump is in the kitty, S1 has an instant euchre just by leading the Right followed by his boss diamond. And those times S4 has both remaining trump, S1's line (lead the Right then the Qd) still makes 5th street a free for all mystery and that's still a good outcome for S1's team! So there's just absolutely no good reason for not leading the Right there. As I say on defense, always play for the euchre. No mercy!

Also, just to be clear here even without the boss QD, S1 MUST lead the Right on 3rd street becuz of the possibility that S2 has another trump.

Lastly, what Irishwolf mentioned about playing the Kh instead of the Jh I find very interesting. From S4's spot, I would reflexively lead the JH on 2nd street trying to promote my KH. But Irishwolf has a very good point. Why not lead the KH instead, that line only burns you when S3 has AHQH and sometimes even then you don't really burn from that lead when S1 or S2 trump in. I think wolf is right, leading the Kh is best out of a KJ set, but if I had KhTh or Kh9h then I lead low. That's a new adjustment I'm gonna make. Also if one plays on the Karman app, remember if someone goes under then all the aces are out. In that special case we would always lead under the King.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:06 pm

Cant pull trump, gotta lead jh or king. Being this early in hand I favor leading the jack hearts.

Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:18 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:47 pm
Lastly, what Irishwolf mentioned about playing the Kh instead of the Jh I find very interesting. From S4's spot, I would reflexively lead the JH on 2nd street trying to promote my KH. But Irishwolf has a very good point. Why not lead the KH instead, that line only burns you when S3 has AHQH and sometimes even then you don't really burn from that lead when S1 or S2 trump in. I think wolf is right, leading the Kh is best out of a KJ set, but if I had KhTh or Kh9h then I lead low. That's a new adjustment I'm gonna make. Also if one plays on the Karman app, remember if someone goes under then all the aces are out. In that special case we would always lead under the King.
Wait, leading the KH can also burn you when S1 has AHQH too, not just when S3 has it. Not sure what is correct here between leading the JH or KH. All I can say is I usually lead the JH.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:16 pm

Although I said either, that may be true sometimes. But not in this hand, clearly KH lead will get you fewer euchres and more points.

"Either the QS or KH is the correct card to play on trick 2. In Euchre it always sometimes you play it this way and sometimes that way. So why the KH on trick 2 - because you need your partner to take a trick with either AH or slough or trump the KH. As soon as S1 plays the AS you have to suspect he might have the JS. And the KS is still unknown after trick 2. The probabilities for helping with the JS is the same for the AH. And for both to be against you is slim.

But to me, what tips the tide to leading the KH is that your partner may have a trump KS or 10S to trump that KH. When you have KH/JH, I like leading the KH. It can backfire if S3 has AH/QH, but slim chance and it now brings into action for S2 to help out"

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