OE - Trust your P for one !

[LeftyK]

This is a perfect example of having faith in the old addage "count on your P for one"
This hand happens alot on trickster. But the point is as crazy as it is, you must lead low trumps on 4th street and have faith the left is buried and your P has the highest trump remaining. Or ,in this case, has the unguarded left to compliment your guarded right. It's a "been there seen that" situation that works 98% of the time. And it's soooo fun when you pull it off !



https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

[RedDuke]

This very site says to never lead trump on fourth trick if your side calls.

In the hand you showed, the mistake was actually made by second seat. That right bower lead was a huge mistake. You already have three trump. You're basically betting that your partner has a least two. In this case he did not. Trying to strip the trump from everyone works pretty well if you only have two trump but if you have three, there's an uncomfortable possibility that you'll be stripping your partner of everything he's got. That's the case here.

Second seat screwed up with that right bower lead.

[Wes (aka the legend)]

This very site says to never lead trump on fourth trick if your side calls.

In the hand you showed, the mistake was actually made by second seat. That right bower lead was a huge mistake. You already have three trump. You're basically betting that your partner has a least two. In this case he did not. Trying to strip the trump from everyone works pretty well if you only have two trump but if you have three, there's an uncomfortable possibility that you'll be stripping your partner of everything he's got. That's the case here.

Second seat screwed up with that right bower lead.

S2 had no choice but to lead trump on the 4th trick. All he had was trump left, and given that his opponents already had 2 tricks, leading the Right in that spot seems standard to me.

[Wes (aka the legend)]

The big screw up in this hand is S4 passing a biddable in the first round. S2 expertly plays off on 1st street vs S1's AC lead becuz he knows that his P should never have a club given that he turned down the JC and he should not pass with R+1, but ofc his P did have a club. I believe there is an exception to the rule "always call with R+1" as dealer and that's when we have all suits blocked, but that exception is irrelevant. Since stopper hands will still be a very small part of S4's range, the correct play for S2 on the first lead doesn't change. He should throw off on the AC lead given that his P turned down the JC. That play should've worked but it didn't cuz S4 passed a biddable hand in the first round.

[LeftyK]

I think s2 makes the mistake of not trumping in on first hand. But then s2 is still in trouble if they lead the right at any time. That is my 12th commandment: Never not trump 1st trick from s2r2 if s2 called trumps.

[Dlan]

I believe there is an exception to the rule "always call with R+1" as dealer and that's when we have all suits blocked

There should be no exceptions. This hand is an example of what happens. How can one expect their partner to play correctly after you've given them bad info? Do you really expect your partner to guess?

Adding a rare exception only serves to confuse people. Having the other suits blocked gives your opponents the opportunity to make one point, but not two? Make it harder for your partner to complete a call? Hoping for an unlikely euchre? How can this be a winning strategy?

Now on this hand, picking the right would have likely resulted in a euchre. Yes, sometimes that happens, and I can almost hear north daring the dealer to pick it up and so it goes...

[Wes (aka the legend)]

I believe there is an exception to the rule "always call with R+1" as dealer and that's when we have all suits blocked

There should be no exceptions.

We have to agree to disagree on this. Here's the thread where we argued about this before (viewtopic.php?f=8&t=468)

This hand is an example of what happens. How can one expect their partner to play correctly after you've given them bad info? Do you really expect your partner to guess?

It's actually not an example AT ALL of what happens. I'll talk about that in a second but first I forgot to distinguish between stopper (all suits blocked) and euchre hands (all suits blocked with approx 2 tricks in one suit). Why is this relevant. Becuz with a Right bower upcard the only way to pass with a stopper hand is if we have both bowers, and as I mentioned in that thread linked above "I would only consider passing both bowers if a had a euchre hand". This means if I pass the Right bower upcard with a euchre hand I still CANT HAVE another club cuz the only R+1 I'm passing with contains the JS. So if I'm S2's P, his strategy of throwing off the AC will work 100% of the time unless I have no diamonds. So this is something I didn't mention in that other thread becuz it just slipped my mind: Turning down the Right bower with only euchre hands is not relevant when it comes to your communication argument becuz your P should still always be void in the turned down suit. Our argument would only apply to non-jack upcards, and those times I recommend the dealer to pass R+1+0 if he has a stopper hand or a euchre hand.

Also, not really that important but worth mentioning just cuz: S2 holding the other black bower (JS) means he can already know his P is not passing with a euchre hand, so his P turning down the Right should be a legit passing hand 100% of the time. OFC in this case S4 passed a biddable hand and that's where the problem began.

Ok back to my first sentence:

This hand is an example of what happens. How can one expect their partner to play correctly after you've given them bad info? Do you really expect your partner to guess?

It's actually not an example AT ALL of what happens becuz as mentioned even when the dealer turns down the Right cuz he has a euchre hand, he still can't have any clubs in his hand if he's playing well, but even more generally it's not an example AT ALL of what happens:

Say the upcard is the

And I'm the dealer and I turn down:



I.E. a stopper hand.

And let's say you call reverse Next in the 2nd rd and S1 leads the , you and S3 follow suit and then you see me play the . Your first thought shouldn't be "OMG Wes passed a biddable R+1 hand and that's why we lost this trick!!". It should be this: "I just saw the JC in Wes' hand after he turned down a club in the first round, this means he has all suits blocked and help is coming for me. Sweet." And not only that, you knowing I have at least a guaranteed trick in the suit you called can help you play your hand better.

Say you called reverse Next in diamonds with after I turned down a club:



Again let's say S1's hypothetical AC lead walks as you see me play the JC after I turned down a club in the first rnd. Now S1 leads the .

Should you throw off and see if your P can take this trick? Hell no. You literally now can just trump in with the AD and lead the JD knowing your team will get the point 100% of the time becuz after you see me play the JC I have to be guarded in diamonds.

My point being whenever the strategy of passing R+1 with a stopper/euchre hand "backfires" on one trick you'll already know I'll have help coming for later tricks, and knowing I'm guarded in your called suit can also help you play your hand better. IOW:

ME: Yeah, the information argument doesn't work here imo because the fundamental premise of the argument--we are giving incorrect information--while technically true doesn't really matter. That argument implies we are losing information and gaining nothing in return, but that's not really true. What's actually going on here is we are trading information, and it's a fair trade.

Adding a rare exception only serves to confuse people.

Not really. S2 just has to read hands well which isn't that hard. There's not a lot of thought going on here. If an expert S4 turns down a heart, and S2 calls something in the 2nd round and he sees his P play the JH, S2 just needs to know what that means.

Having the other suits blocked gives your opponents the opportunity to make one point, but not two?

The idea is we are only turning down very marginal hands when we have all suits blocked. Hands like R+1+0. Marginal hands get euchred a lot themselves which is why I say "never call marginal when you have all suits blocks (with an exception being when you have a stopper hand and the opponents are at 9)" By passing a marginal hand we deny our enemy the chance to euchre us, and when they call they are either getting 1 pt or -2 pts. That's not a bad preposition.

Another way to put this: the highest theoretical cost of a euchre is when you have all suits blocked since your euchre never prevents a 2 pt or 4 pt play by the enemy. When we have a marginal hand with all suits blocks it's not worth bearing that high cost.

Make it harder for your partner to complete a call?

As discussed above it doesn't.

Hoping for an unlikely euchre? How can this be a winning strategy?

It's not just about hoping for an unlikely euchre, it's about avoiding a euchre ourselves which has value when we are marginal. Why risk getting euchred when we are marginal when we have a good defensive hand.

Now on this hand, picking the right would have likely resulted in a euchre. Yes, sometimes that happens, and I can almost hear north daring the dealer to pick it up and so it goes...

On this hand there's not much to say that hasn't already been said. The dealer should not pass R+1 in this spot. And S2 made an expert play of throwing off on S1's AC lead knowing his P should be void in clubs.

One more fun example: Say I turned down the as the dealer in the first round.

And you made a reverse Next hearts call in the 2nd round with:



Say S1 leads the , you follow suit, as does S3 and then I play the

Now you know, I just turned down both bowers. And you know I would only do that with a euchre hand. So I have a hand like 4 jacks or I have at least a guaranteed trick in hearts with the AD. IOW the instant you see me play the JS you now know your team is in really good shape.

[Wes (aka the legend)]

Becuz with a Right bower upcard the only way to pass with a stopper hand is if we have both bowers, and as I mentioned in that thread linked above "I would only consider passing both bowers if a had a euchre hand". This means if I pass the Right bower upcard with a euchre hand I still CANT HAVE another club cuz the only R+1 I'm passing with contains the JS. So if I'm S2's P, his strategy of throwing off the AC will work 100% of the time unless I have no diamonds. So this is something I didn't mention in that other thread becuz it just slipped my mind: Turning down the Right bower with only euchre hands is not relevant when it comes to your communication argument becuz your P should still always be void in the turned down suit. Our argument would only apply to non-jack upcards, and those times I recommend the dealer to pass R+1+0 if he has a stopper hand or a euchre hand.

Forgot about this other euchre hand I could have if I turn down the JC:



So it's possible I could still have a club if I turn down the JC but it would be the AC. Change that AC into a KC and I'd call as I'm not passing an upcard jack without a euchre hand.

Also with this euchre hand I'd pick up and go alone with R+1+2As



So point still stands, if I turn down the JC and you call something in the 2nd rd and the AC is led, I'll never have a club since the AC is the only club I could possibly have.

[Dlan]

We have to agree to disagree on this.
Yes, and I will continue to disagree.

It's actually not an example AT ALL of what happens becuz as mentioned even when the dealer turns down the Right cuz he has a euchre hand

Really? Cause it sure looks like it is.

Hands where one can pass, thus euchring the opponents are rare. Even holding jack-jack in the makers suit does not guarantee a euchre.

One more fun example: Say I turned down the as the dealer in the first round.

And you made a reverse Next hearts call in the 2nd round with:



Say S1 leads the , you follow suit, as does S3 and then I play the

Now you know, I just turned down both bowers. And you know I would only do that with a euchre hand. So I have a hand like 4 jacks or I have at least a guaranteed trick in hearts with the AD. IOW the instant you see me play the JS you now know your team is in really good shape.

Sure hope 1st doesn't call alone in diamonds

[Wes (aka the legend)]

We have to agree to disagree on this.
Yes, and I will continue to disagree.

The idea is R+1+0 from the dealer spot is probably a negative expected outcome hand, but we all call with it--whether we are aware of why or not--for defensive purposes. IOW we call with it under the implicit belief that passing with that hand has an even worse EO thus making a R+1+0 call an overall +EV hand. So the theory goes, once we have all suits blocked we no longer need to call with this marginal hand for defensive purposes as we already have good defense and when we have all suits blocked the cost of passing drops significantly (our opponents can never get a +2 or +4 on their call) to the point where the EO of passing is no longer worse than the EO of calling with this marginal hand, therefore passing becomes the +EV play when we have all suits blocked.

Of course this theory needs to be put to the test and thx to Irishwolf pushing and prodding me I now have the tools to do just that. So we don't actually have to "agree to disagree" here. This spot can be solved. I now have the ability to solve every first round decision. Time is my only problem.

It's actually not an example AT ALL of what happens becuz as mentioned even when the dealer turns down the Right cuz he has a euchre hand

Really? Cause it sure looks like it is.

What I'm talking about here is not comparable to what happened to S2 in the actual hand. In the actual hand S4 just straight passed a biddable hand and left his P potentially hanging in the wind on a 2nd Rd call. So many 2S 2nd rd calls get euchred this way. What I'm talking about is: S4 only passing R+1 when he has a stopper hand or better, and S4 only potentially passing both bowers when he has a euchre hand. In these cases S4 will always have a hand to help his P in the 2nd rd.

Hands where one can pass, thus euchring the opponents are rare. Even holding jack-jack in the makers suit does not guarantee a euchre.

You're forgetting the other part of the equation: R+1+0 is a very marginal hand that gets euchred relatively often. When we pass that hand--when we have all suits blocked--we save on that cost. Another marginal benefit to this pass: When we pass a stopper hand/euchre hand there is only one player in the 2nd rd that can achieve a 4 pt loner or a 2 pt call, our P. Our opponents can only get +1 or -2, and while they'll get significantly more +1s than -2s, it doesn't take that many -2s to justify S4's strategy given that he himself is avoiding a lot of -2s.

One more fun example: Say I turned down the as the dealer in the first round.

And you made a reverse Next hearts call in the 2nd round with:



Say S1 leads the , you follow suit, as does S3 and then I play the

Now you know, I just turned down both bowers. And you know I would only do that with a euchre hand. So I have a hand like 4 jacks or I have at least a guaranteed trick in hearts with the AD. IOW the instant you see me play the JS you now know your team is in really good shape.

Sure hope 1st doesn't call alone in diamonds

If S1 goes alone in diamonds he gets 1 pt at the most. No biggie. S4 always has diamonds stopped in my example.