KH upcard PONE, S3 holds 9H 10H QH AS KS

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irishwolf
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KH upcard PONE, S3 holds 9H 10H QH AS KS

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:38 am

Testing your Euchre IQ what will you do being in 3rd seat. S3 holds 9H 10H QH AS KS with the KH as the up card. Will you PASS or ORDER? Assume score is 6 to 6. Assume all equally skilled players.

If S3 passes, what is your guess of euchring the dealer?

If S3 passes, what is your guess that the dealer also passes?

If S3 orders, what is the rate of making a point?

If S3 orders, what is the rate of being euchred?

And what is the EV if S3 orders?

Any guess of the EV for S1/S3 if S3 passes?

Or I give up, no clue what to do!

~Irishwolf



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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:39 am

passing because I cannot take the upcard on a trick. no clue on the chances/rate.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:05 pm

At 6 to 6 Im passing. If my partner is competent I can possibly order here at 6 to 6. As for the going rates and percentages. I can say off the top of my head. I don't know.

Tbolt65
Edward

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:11 am

My first instinct was this call would result in a euchre. But I know Irishwolf wouldn’t present a challenge without a good reason. I starting testing hands using the Euchre workshop. On a surprisingly large number of hands, a point was made. As I was playing with/against three copies of myself, I wasn’t sure of the results.

During last night’s games, a similar hand was dealt. I decided to test it in the real world. Here is what happened.

Image

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:40 pm

Dlan wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:11 am
My first instinct was this call would result in a euchre. But I know Irishwolf wouldn’t present a challenge without a good reason. I starting testing hands using the Euchre workshop. On a surprisingly large number of hands, a point was made. As I was playing with/against three copies of myself, I wasn’t sure of the results.

During last night’s games, a similar hand was dealt. I decided to test it in the real world. Here is what happened.

Image

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D
It's not about whether this hand can score a point or not. It's about whether the expected outcome of calling beats out the expected outcome of passing. And it's very hard to beat out the expected outcome of passing in the 3rd seat becuz of the parlay problem. Remember every time you make a call in this spot but the dealer would've called had you passed your team loses in the long run since you would never call from the toughest position in the game if you knew the dealer would call. And every time you make a call in this spot but your partner would've had a 1 pt call or greater had the dealer passed your team loses in the long run since you would never call and fight for a point from the toughest position in the game if you knew your P had a hand. This is why the 3rd seat is primarily the sandbag seat becuz it is very hard to make it over both hurdles.

This hand is a classic example illustrating the above points. If I were writing a chapter on 3rd seat play I'd probably use this hand. Notice you called and your team scratched out a point, but in actuality you cost your team points. Your P was sitting on a 4 pt loner in the second round. So your call cost your team 3 points.....but luckily that's actually not true becuz I was the dealer and I would've made a thin diamond call with 2 trump + a tripleton ace becuz I only block 1 out of 3 second round suits. So your 3rd seat call only cost your team 1 point since passing would've resulted in an enemy euchre. Both hurdles were up against your 3rd seat call.

IMO this call is what I would classify as a level zero mistake. A level zero mistake is when one is making a call based on their 5 cards instead of doing what's best for their team. IOW one is only thinking about the cards in their hand when they should be thinking about the overall situation. The parlay problem is very real. There's two legs that must happen at the same time for a typical 3rd seat call to not be a technical mistake* (the dealer has a passing hand and S1 doesn't have at least a 1 pt calling hand). Becuz parlays are hard to hit we need to play very tight from the 3rd seat, especially when the dealer is super aggressive and you have an aggressive P you can trust in the 2nd round. When those two conditions are in place--as they were in this hand--this hypothesis is actually drawing live: "Never call in the 3rd seat unless you have loner". Now I don't think that hypothesis is true but it's very close to the truth. Close enough where I wish I could test it out in that mythical euchre simulator.
*: any time one makes a play they would not make if the cards were face up they have made a technical mistake). Although technical mistakes are not mistakes in the conventional sense they still hurt your team.

There is one exception to all of the above and this is when the score is tied 9-9 or your team is in a close out situation (up 9-X where X = 7 or below). Now the math changes becuz your team gains nothing from an enemy euchre. Your team also gains nothing from a S1-2nd Rd 2 pt or 4 pt loner call. Now it's worth making this call and going for the win becuz the cost of being wrong in the technical sense is so much lower.

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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:14 pm

Very well stated Wes - (yes, I was in S1 and calling reverse loner :) ) and I was not happy with the call. And score is almost one of they most important factors in this game in which you only (by average) play around ten hands a game. That's it.

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:57 pm

Yep, real easy to say what shoulda happened after seeing everyone's hands.

Now take those same hands and shift them a bit.

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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am

My response to Wes’s reply is that the original post was not about the general theory of ordering at S3. Although I agree with much of your position of ordering from the pone seat, it’s more of things to consider for beginners or the average player.

His approach has issues or specific hands, scores and situations. That would be another separate conversation. For example, "Never call in the 3rd seat unless you have loner", Only order if you have a lone hand (highly questionable)? What if you had the four lowest trumps, and ordering the Ace? However, I agreed that you should have a strong (three probable tricks, not depending on your partner) hand to order the dealer.
*: any time one makes a play they would not make if the cards were face up they have made a technical mistake. That is GIBBERISH and gets you no where!

The original post is about a specific hand, be it an EXCEPTION to your theory or not. The hand posted where it ruined S1 loner, so what? (A different situation if way behind in score.) What about all the other 8567 possible hands for S1?

If one is interested at all, you must answer the questions posed about this specific hand as it relates to the 18 unknown cards, and the universe of all possible hands (8568 possible).

Is the (EV) Expected Value greater for ordering the KH than the alternatives? This is what is BEST for the team. It’s not a ‘zero level mistake’ if he EV is better than the alternatives. And that cannot be answer with ‘gut probabilities’ that are often wrong or with ‘generalized theory’.

If one does not know or in doubt then of course PASS.

~Irishwolf

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:16 am

Dlan wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:57 pm
Yep, real easy to say what shoulda happened after seeing everyone's hands.
That's not what's going on tho. I can be wrong but I'll never be results oriented. The parlay problem is a big deal. The fact that we're in the 3rd seat starting without the lead, not closing the action, with a player behind us with a trump+void is also a big deal. The parlay problem + the bad position problem = we should play very tight from this spot. Hands that may seem like good calls should get shifted into the sandbag category. And if you have a really good P, who plays well in the 2nd round, even more hands should get shifted into the sandbag category, and if the dealer is very aggressive even more hands still. The water gets muddy tho when we have a bad P who plays terrible defense in the 2nd round passing a lot. Then some of those sandbag hands have to be shifted back into the call category.

I do think your call was a poor call, especially given how aggressive the dealer is plus the fact that you have a strong P. Unfortunately I cannot mathematically prove your call was bad. I think that's impossible to do without a simulation. But I do think it would be relatively easy to demonstrate that this call is bad pretty conclusively, although it would take some time. We'd have to log these marginal 3rd seat calls like we're doing with donates. And I believe over time a pattern would emerge and people would begin to fully appreciate the parlay problem I continually talk about. Maybe it would take 20 hands to see, maybe 100 hands, maybe a thousand, IDK. I believe the parlay problem is such a big issue it would show itself in any sample relatively quickly.

Other than that, the reason why it's basically impossible to prove this mathematically and only a simulation would suffice is becuz of all the different possibilities for S1 after the dealer passes. That's too hard to figure out simply counting hand combos. Too complicated. Figuring out the expected outcome for S1's range after S3 and the dealer pass is basically a guessing game.

The only part of the mathematical equation that's relatively easy to figure out is how often the dealer will call or pass after you pass your hand in S3. As Irishwolf knows, that part is simply a hand combo counting exercise. I could tell you pretty close to almost my exact passing % from the dealer spot after you pass your hand. Again, it's just counting combos and dividing by 18C5.

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:48 am

irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
His approach has issues or specific hands, scores and situations. That would be another separate conversation. For example, "Never call in the 3rd seat unless you have loner", Only order if you have a lone hand (highly questionable)? What if you had the four lowest trumps, and ordering the Ace?

That's not how I actually play tho. I'm just saying that vs an a very aggressive dealer and with a very strong P in S1, I'm not ruling out the possibility that the hypothesis "Never call in 3rd seat unless you have a loner" is correct. I don't believe it is correct. I'm just saying I would not rule it out without a good simulation. I'm really just trying to make a point of how tight we should be playing in this spot.

In actuality, I am always calling with 4 trump in the 3rd seat except I may gamble with 4 trump and pass vs the Jack upcard if the dealer is very aggressive.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
However, I agreed that you should have a strong (three probable tricks, not depending on your partner) hand to order the dealer.
I play extremely tight from 3rd but there is a hand configuration I call with that is not that great. It's when I have R+2+nothing and I don't fit a Next call well. E.G. if say Edward is my P, I'm calling with with this hand:

Upcard is the (Card_10-D)

I'm in 3S with: (Card_J-D) (Card_K-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-S)

I'm sigh calling that hand becuz I don't fit a next call well but I wouldn't be surprised at all to find out that this hand gets demolished by the parlay problem. And if you were my P and you didn't want me making that call, I'd be like "Sure, fine" cuz I am not married to that call AT ALL.

Here's a hand I would pass with Edward as my P becuz I have approx 2 tricks in Next:

Upcard is the (Card_10-D)

I'm in 3S with: (Card_J-D) (Card_K-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-H) (Card_A-S)

The hand's that hurt my brain are the R+2 hands that have only one trick in Next (again Edward is my P, cuz this thought process may not apply with another P). For example:

Upcard is the (Card_10-D)

I'm in the 3S with: (Card_J-D) (Card_K-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-H) (Card_K-S)

Should I call? Should I pass? I seriously have no clue.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
*: any time one makes a play they would not make if the cards were face up they have made a technical mistake. That is GIBBERISH and gets you no where!
IMO, that concept is so important that if one doesn't get it they will never play the 3rd Seat-1st Rd that well.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
The original post is about a specific hand, be it an EXCEPTION to your theory or not. The hand posted where it ruined S1 loner, so what? (A different situation if way behind in score.)
As I said to Don, I don't care about the actual results. It's the concept that's important. Understanding that becuz of the parlay problem, you will be making a lot of technical mistakes if you don't play very tightly from the 3rd seat. The hand Don posted just happened to beautiful illustrate the concept. Of course one hand doesn't prove anything.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
What about all the other 8567 possible hands for S1?
That's the million dollar question, the expected outcome of S1's range after we pass a hand like yours or Don's from the 3rd seat and the dealer passes.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
If one is interested at all, you must answer the questions posed about this specific hand as it relates to the 18 unknown cards, and the universe of all possible hands (8568 possible).
I don't think the discussion can be very fruitful becuz only a simulation can capture the key variable, the expected outcome of S1's range after 3rd Seat and the dealer pass.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
Is the (EV) Expected Value greater for ordering the KH than the alternatives? This is what is BEST for the team. It’s not a ‘zero level mistake’ if he EV is better than the alternatives. And that cannot be answer with ‘gut probabilities’ that are often wrong or with ‘generalized theory’.
I cannot mathematically prove what I'm claiming and I don't see how anyone else can either due to the S1 range EV problem. What one can do is log these type of marginal 3S calls like your hand or Don's hand and see how often it gets through the parlay problem. Just doing that alone will give someone great insight into this spot that I believe 99% of the euchre playing population does not have.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
If one does not know or in doubt then of course PASS.

~Irishwolf
Yep. I would tell a beginner if you are not sure what to do call, except in the 3rd Seat-1st round. Then if you're not sure, pass, becuz even if it's a mistake it will be a very small one due to the parlay problem.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:20 am

Irishwolf,

We currently have 4 regulars for our Monday night game. If you want back in on the Monday night game you can rotate with me. I'll play one Monday and you'll play the next Ad infinitum. This will also make the Monday Night game stronger as one player opting out can't ruin it. In that scenario me and you would both play. Let me know what you think. If you agree to this you're in this Monday.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:41 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:48 am
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
His approach has issues or specific hands, scores and situations. That would be another separate conversation. For example, "Never call in the 3rd seat unless you have loner", Only order if you have a lone hand (highly questionable)? What if you had the four lowest trumps, and ordering the Ace?

That's not how I actually play tho. I'm just saying that vs an a very aggressive dealer and with a very strong P in S1, I'm not ruling out the possibility that the hypothesis "Never call in 3rd seat unless you have a loner" is correct. I don't believe it is correct. I'm just saying I would not rule it out without a good simulation. I'm really just trying to make a point of how tight we should be playing in this spot.

In actuality, I am always calling with 4 trump in the 3rd seat except I may gamble with 4 trump and pass vs the Jack upcard if the dealer is very aggressive.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
However, I agreed that you should have a strong (three probable tricks, not depending on your partner) hand to order the dealer.
I play extremely tight from 3rd but there is a hand configuration I call with that is not that great. It's when I have R+2+nothing and I don't fit a Next call well. E.G. if say Edward is my P, I'm calling with with this hand:

Upcard is the (Card_10-D)

I'm in 3S with: (Card_J-D) (Card_K-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-S)

I'm sigh calling that hand becuz I don't fit a next call well but I wouldn't be surprised at all to find out that this hand gets demolished by the parlay problem. And if you were my P and you didn't want me making that call, I'd be like "Sure, fine" cuz I am not married to that call AT ALL.

Here's a hand I would pass with Edward as my P becuz I have approx 2 tricks in Next:

Upcard is the (Card_10-D)

I'm in 3S with: (Card_J-D) (Card_K-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-H) (Card_A-S)

The hand's that hurt my brain are the R+2 hands that have only one trick in Next (again Edward is my P, cuz this thought process may not apply with another P). For example:

Upcard is the (Card_10-D)

I'm in the 3S with: (Card_J-D) (Card_K-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-H) (Card_K-S)

Should I call? Should I pass? I seriously have no clue.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
*: any time one makes a play they would not make if the cards were face up they have made a technical mistake. That is GIBBERISH and gets you no where!
IMO, that concept is so important that if one doesn't get it they will never play the 3rd Seat-1st Rd that well.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
The original post is about a specific hand, be it an EXCEPTION to your theory or not. The hand posted where it ruined S1 loner, so what? (A different situation if way behind in score.)
As I said to Don, I don't care about the actual results. It's the concept that's important. Understanding that becuz of the parlay problem, you will be making a lot of technical mistakes if you don't play very tightly from the 3rd seat. The hand Don posted just happened to beautiful illustrate the concept. Of course one hand doesn't prove anything.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
What about all the other 8567 possible hands for S1?
That's the million dollar question, the expected outcome of S1's range after we pass a hand like yours or Don's from the 3rd seat and the dealer passes.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
If one is interested at all, you must answer the questions posed about this specific hand as it relates to the 18 unknown cards, and the universe of all possible hands (8568 possible).
I don't think the discussion can be very fruitful becuz only a simulation can capture the key variable, the expected outcome of S1's range after 3rd Seat and the dealer pass.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
Is the (EV) Expected Value greater for ordering the KH than the alternatives? This is what is BEST for the team. It’s not a ‘zero level mistake’ if he EV is better than the alternatives. And that cannot be answer with ‘gut probabilities’ that are often wrong or with ‘generalized theory’.
I cannot mathematically prove what I'm claiming and I don't see how anyone else can either due to the S1 range EV problem. What one can do is log these type of marginal 3S calls like your hand or Don's hand and see how often it gets through the parlay problem. Just doing that alone will give someone great insight into this spot that I believe 99% of the euchre playing population does not have.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:49 am
If one does not know or in doubt then of course PASS.

~Irishwolf
Yep. I would tell a beginner if you are not sure what to do call, except in the 3rd Seat-1st round. Then if you're not sure, pass, becuz even if it's a mistake it will be a very small one due to the parlay problem.

As you can see Wes is stipulating certain play with a certain type of player and goes on to say with different partners and type of players in the dealers seat, playing the same hand often changes. I agree 100 percent with what said about me in his breakdown of said plays and how that would change if the scenario or players was different. I will also add using wes and myself in those scenarios that additionally you can also bag more there in hoping of a loner in next or reverse next. Where if you had ordered you may have lost an opportunity to set the dealer or have your seat 1 r2 partner not get a shot of going alone. Again all this extra bagging oportunities changes with the other mitigating factors mentioned above by wes and myself.

Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:39 pm

"As you can see Wes is stipulating certain play with a certain type of player and goes on to say with different partners and type of players in the dealers seat, playing the same hand often changes. I agree 100 percent with what said about me in his breakdown of said plays and how that would change if the scenario or players was different. I will also add using wes and myself in those scenarios that additionally you can also bag more there in hoping of a loner in next or reverse next . . ."

You're moving the Goal Posts by injecting other hands even though they may be valid. The original post was about KH up 9H 10H QH AS KS. With that hand, specifically that Hand no other was mentioned by me.

Since no one seems to really know, I will give you the answer:

1) You will score more points by ordering than Passing. And that includes euchring the dealer, or the dealer passing, or S1 making trump or S1 passing = all combined.

2) It does consider all factors inclusive of and best for the TEAM! Only if my team is way behind in points would I pass.

3) There will be almost as many sweeps as being euchred. Yes, you will get euchred, about 22% and sweeps 18 - 20%. Fact, dealer will have three trumps only 16% of the time. Even then if S1 has JH, you will make a point.

4) Consider, if S2 has JH/AH or JH/JD and sometimes JD/AH he will assist. So S3 does not have to basically worry about S2 the majority of the time. I could go on but will stop there as the main points.

The EV of this hand is .40 to .46 and you cannot do better by Passing.

~Irishwolf

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:42 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:39 pm
Since no one seems to really know, I will give you the answer:

1) You will score more points by ordering than Passing. And that includes euchring the dealer, or the dealer passing, or S1 making trump or S1 passing = all combined.
There's no way you can know this and there's no way you can prove this. A claim this big requires strong evidence. Back of the envelope math can't cut it. Only a good simulation could resolve this.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:39 pm
2) It does consider all factors inclusive of and best for the TEAM! Only if my team is way behind in points would I pass.
Impossible without a simulation.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:39 pm
3) There will be almost as many sweeps as being euchred. Yes, you will get euchred, about 22% and sweeps 18 - 20%. Fact, dealer will have three trumps only 16% of the time. Even then if S1 has JH, you will make a point.
We cannot confidently know the sweep percentages and euchre percentages without running a simulation. The dealer will have 3 trump around 16% of the time, that is true, but who cares. What's more relevant is how often the dealer is picking up. That number is also easy to calculate with the right player read but even if we know that with precision we would still need a simulation to have a decent idea how often sweeps, euchres, loners, 1 pt calls, happen.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:39 pm
4) Consider, if S2 has JH/AH or JH/JD and sometimes JD/AH he will assist. So S3 does not have to basically worry about S2 the majority of the time. I could go on but will stop there as the main points.
True, S2's range is weaker after he passes. That still doesn't get us far.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:39 pm
The EV of this hand is .40 to .46 and you cannot do better by Passing.

~Irishwolf
Lol. I literally cracked up at your EV conclusion. You know and I know it's a bull**** number. But the hilarious part is if back of the envelope math actually got us to a .40 to .46 EV result the only rational conclusion from that would be: "It's too close to call". Not "you cannot do better by passing." This whole analysis is worse than wrong. It's petty and dishonest.

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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:59 pm

"irishwolf wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:39 pm
2) It does consider all factors inclusive of and best for the TEAM! Only if my team is way behind in points would I pass."

I'm thinking the exact opposite here. Only if I'm way ahead am I calling this from s3r1. What good is it if you're way behind and pass on this half decent hand?

I'm on Wes side here - we need a simulator for the coin toss call.

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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:10 pm

sorry guys, I have done the hands, simulations and have the proof! I don't make statements with guesses. You are questioning my integrity and have no clue on the work doing hands on this very problem.

Back up your statements with some counter real Facts! Not B.S. and false statements. Do some work!

And I really don't give a flip whether you believe my results. Your loss not mine.

~Irishwolf
Last edited by irishwolf on Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:51 am, edited 2 times in total.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:15 pm

Tbolt65 wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:05 pm
At 6 to 6 Im passing. If my partner is competent I can possibly order here at 6 to 6. As for the going rates and percentages. I can say off the top of my head. I don't know.

Tbolt65
Edward

.............

Tbolt65
Edward

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