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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:15 am
Unread post by RedDuke » Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:00 am
That's assuming that S3 is a skilled player. A lot of players wouldn't lead trump on defense no matter what trick it is. If all S3 had left was the Ace of trump, it wouldn't be a good idea to lead it either if he's got nothing else in his hand. The only reason for him to lead the boss trump on the third trick is to clear out the maker and go for the euchre. In order for that to work, he'd have to be holding the boss cards in the other suits for him to keep the lead. The maker is holding the ace of diamonds, not S3. I doubt I'd lead the Ace of Trump if I had it in S3. I'd lead something pathetic hoping that the maker would take it with a trump, giving me last play. It would depend on what the rest of my hand was, but if all I had in S3 was the boss trump, I would not lead it on the third trick.Using simple hand reading logic we can deduce that S4's last trump, the KC, is effectively boss (I.E. higher than any trump S3 could have left) becuz IF S3 had the boss AC he should've led that on 3rd street given that his P in S1 is out of trump. But S3 didn't do that so we know he cannot have the AC. So knowing that S4's KC is effectively boss, there's no need to rush things here. S4 should throw off on the TS lead and see if his P can take a trick. This is the best line to take becuz even tho S3 cannot have the AC he can still have the TC or the 9C and even possibly both. If throwing off on the TS doesn't work out for S4 he still has the effective boss trump + an off ace to fall back on to possibly escape with a point. But if throwing off on the TS does work and S2 takes the trick, now S4 is guaranteed the point even against the top of S3's range.
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:00 am
I also call this from the 2 spot but I'll back off if my team is down a lot in hopes my P has a loner.
Using simple hand reading logic we can deduce that S4's last trump, the KC, is effectively boss (I.E. higher than any trump S3 could have left) becuz IF S3 had the boss AC he should've led that on 3rd street given that his P in S1 is out of trump. But S3 didn't do that so we know he cannot have the AC. So knowing that S4's KC is effectively boss, there's no need to rush things here. S4 should throw off on the TS lead and see if his P can take a trick. This is the best line to take becuz even tho S3 cannot have the AC he can still have the TC or the 9C and even possibly both. If throwing off on the TS doesn't work out for S4 he still has the effective boss trump + an off ace to fall back on to possibly escape with a point. But if throwing off on the TS does work and S2 takes the trick, now S4 is guaranteed the point even against the top of S3's range.
Correct. There are many pitfalls to this kind of hand reading but nevertheless one will still do better in the long run if they approach the game this way, constantly trying to deduce what cards players hold--using logic, math, and psychology--then to ignore this way of thinking altogether becuz it will sometimes be wrong. And the trick to being able to think fast enough during play to do this type of hand reading is to constantly think about hands/situations away from the table, and of course play a lot of hands/games gaining tons of invaluable experience. Then this becomes second nature. Logically S3 can't have the trump Ace if he plays well, but as you noted probably most players CAN still have the trump Ace becuz they don't play well! That's where the psychology part comes in. In order for hand reading logic to work you have to make player psychology adjustments first. If you don't do that you'll often end up with perfect logical deductions stemming from faulty premises. IOW garbage in, garbage out.
It it absolutely imperative for S3 to lead the Ace of trump if he has it in this spot no matter what his other cards are unless he has an additional trump and can create an end play. The trick to understanding why is to remember that S2 can still have another trump, a possibility that goes up given that S1 showed void in trump on the first lead. Leading the boss trump and taking out 2 enemy trump in one lead would be a coup for your team. Conversely If S2 has that additional trump and you let him keep it around by not leading the AC your team's chance at a euchre basically collapses as S2 will now have a great chance to help out his P. Also given that your P is void in trump, leading the boss trump here really can't hurt your team so you might as well always lead it. You need your P to save the day and get an offsuit trick no matter how you play this spot.RedDuke wrote: ↑Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:00 amIf all S3 had left was the Ace of trump, it wouldn't be a good idea to lead it either if he's got nothing else in his hand. The only reason for him to lead the boss trump on the third trick is to clear out the maker and go for the euchre. In order for that to work, he'd have to be holding the boss cards in the other suits for him to keep the lead. The maker is holding the ace of diamonds, not S3. I doubt I'd lead the Ace of Trump if I had it in S3. I'd lead something pathetic hoping that the maker would take it with a trump, giving me last play. It would depend on what the rest of my hand was, but if all I had in S3 was the boss trump, I would not lead it on the third trick.
And additional reason S4 should've played off in that spot: S1 did not lead off with an ace which correlates with him having no aces in his hand so the chances your partner has the boss card in the led spade suit goes up big time.RedDuke wrote: ↑Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:00 amI agree with you though. The maker burned his king too early. When S3 did not lead the ace on the third trick, the maker should have played second hand low and seen if his partner had the ace (or could trump it), especially since he knew that S1 has a trump void. By using the trump, he's depending on his diamond ace, but he has no way to know if S3 has more trump and potentially a diamond void, which would kill his chances.
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