Why I call Hoyle/Next in this situation

[Tbolt65]

Wes and I just got done with some WocG rated. Below is a hand I can finally illustrate to Wes of why I keep saying what I do about this particular situation.

The up Card is

I have:

I pass Seat 1 Round 1.

Dealer turns down.

Naturally I'm going to call but what would you call?

Well I called Hoyle/Next for your partner. Why?

Well I may have Left, Ace, 10c but I have no off Aces. If I do I probably call Clubs and maybe alone depending on how low the other off suit is. So that is why I call next/hoyle for my partner because the rule of thumb is that he will have it , plus I know Wes can bag for next which helps out. Here is the big reasons. I have An off suit Ace of clubs. Plus I also have that coveted Void suit. I have no hearts. Jack of hearts here is a bauer. Now as you will see below in the saved game. Seat 3 has Three trump, but we still make point. Check it out.

I always prefer to call hoyle/next in these situations unless other data or other factors are present.


Tbolt65
Edward

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

[Wes (aka the legend)]

I disagree on this one. You have a euchre hand. All suits blocked with approx 2 tricks in every suit. Pass that hand and go for the euchre instead of calling marginal. I agree tho that with me as your P if you must call anything call Next here.

Meaningless results oriented take: If we pass S2 should call clubs--doesn't mean he will obviously given how passive players can be--but if S2 calls clubs we got him.

[Tbolt65]

I had 1 for sure stopper in Spades and I didn't want to give up a point by not calling. That's why I called.
Let's say the Ace of clubs was a spade, then yes I would pass.

Tbolt65
Edward

[Dlan]

Next and reverse next should be a consideration when making a call.

Should it be the dominating factor? No, but it may help in making those thin calls successful.

[Catch10110]

Why did you lead the left instead of the king? Aren't you hoping to hit your partner's right? If that was all he had, you'd have been in trouble...

[Wes (aka the legend)]

Why did you lead the left instead of the king? Aren't you hoping to hit your partner's right? If that was all he had, you'd have been in trouble...

I agree with you. That is a bad lead.

[raydog]

Here's what I found, simulating the hand.

If S1 calls D, R2, better to lead the AC (EV = +0.31) than the JS (EV = +0.27). Leading the JH or KD are even worse. Why? I think the hand is only winnable if your partner has a couple of trump, or one trump and a couple are buried. You are looking for a cross ruff, maybe two even, but drawing trump will too often lose you control of the hand. (just guessing)

If S1 calls C, R2, better to lead the JS (EV = +0.34) than the KD (EV = +0.22). Why? I think leading a low trump allows the opponents a good chance of winning the first trick if the R bower is buried, and tricks are in short supply. Partner winning with the R is not a wasted trick, since your Ace becomes boss and the 10C is there to trump a spade, or second trick in a red suit (opponents may be out of trump at that juncture).

Comparing Clubs to Diamonds as a R2 bid by S1: (100,000 hands)
Clubs (lead JS): 4,750 / 26,304 / 12,724 EV = +0.24
Diamonds (lead AC, then 10C if win): 4.037 / 27,818 / 11,923 EV = +0.28

But here's the clincher - I also compared a Diamonds bid, R2, to passing: (new set of 100,000 hands)
Diamonds: EV = +0.28
Pass: EV = +0.42
S2 gets euchred A LOT, S3 makes a lot of nice bids when S2 passes, and S4 basically gets screwed if it gets that far (STD). Good call, Wes.

[irishwolf]

Ray,

I am curious for a reason.

When doing the 100,000 samples WHAT IS YOUR STANDARD DEVIATION? Or high and low for standard deviation. I see frequently 2.5 to 3.5. That is a very important stat to know for statistical significance.

IRISHWOLF

[Wes (aka the legend)]

But here's the clincher - I also compared a Diamonds bid, R2, to passing: (new set of 100,000 hands)
Diamonds: EV = +0.28
Pass: EV = +0.42
S2 gets euchred A LOT, S3 makes a lot of nice bids when S2 passes, and S4 basically gets screwed if it gets that far (STD). Good call, Wes.

Awesome. Yep as I strongly suspected it's rarely if ever correct to call marginal when one has a euchre hand.