Why I call Hoyle/Next in this situation

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Tbolt65
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Why I call Hoyle/Next in this situation

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Jan 21, 2021 6:55 pm

Wes and I just got done with some WocG rated. Below is a hand I can finally illustrate to Wes of why I keep saying what I do about this particular situation.

The up Card is (Card_9-H)

I have: (Card_J-H) (Card_K-D) (Card_A-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_J-S)

I pass Seat 1 Round 1.

Dealer turns down.

Naturally I'm going to call but what would you call?

Well I called Hoyle/Next for your partner. Why?

Well I may have Left, Ace, 10c but I have no off Aces. If I do I probably call Clubs and maybe alone depending on how low the other off suit is. So that is why I call next/hoyle for my partner because the rule of thumb is that he will have it , plus I know Wes can bag for next which helps out. Here is the big reasons. I have An off suit Ace of clubs. Plus I also have that coveted Void suit. I have no hearts. Jack of hearts here is a bauer. Now as you will see below in the saved game. Seat 3 has Three trump, but we still make point. Check it out.

I always prefer to call hoyle/next in these situations unless other data or other factors are present.


Tbolt65
Edward

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D



Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:04 pm

I disagree on this one. You have a euchre hand. All suits blocked with approx 2 tricks in every suit. Pass that hand and go for the euchre instead of calling marginal. I agree tho that with me as your P if you must call anything call Next here.

Meaningless results oriented take: If we pass S2 should call clubs--doesn't mean he will obviously given how passive players can be--but if S2 calls clubs we got him.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:11 pm

I had 1 for sure stopper in Spades and I didn't want to give up a point by not calling. That's why I called.
Let's say the Ace of clubs was a spade, then yes I would pass.

Tbolt65
Edward

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Thu Jan 21, 2021 11:08 pm

Next and reverse next should be a consideration when making a call.

Should it be the dominating factor? No, but it may help in making those thin calls successful.

Catch10110
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Unread post by Catch10110 » Thu Dec 30, 2021 5:55 pm

Why did you lead the left instead of the king? Aren't you hoping to hit your partner's right? If that was all he had, you'd have been in trouble...

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Dec 30, 2021 7:57 pm

Catch10110 wrote:
Thu Dec 30, 2021 5:55 pm
Why did you lead the left instead of the king? Aren't you hoping to hit your partner's right? If that was all he had, you'd have been in trouble...
I agree with you. That is a bad lead.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Thu Dec 30, 2021 10:08 pm

Here's what I found, simulating the hand.

If S1 calls D, R2, better to lead the AC (EV = +0.31) than the JS (EV = +0.27). Leading the JH or KD are even worse. Why? I think the hand is only winnable if your partner has a couple of trump, or one trump and a couple are buried. You are looking for a cross ruff, maybe two even, but drawing trump will too often lose you control of the hand. (just guessing)

If S1 calls C, R2, better to lead the JS (EV = +0.34) than the KD (EV = +0.22). Why? I think leading a low trump allows the opponents a good chance of winning the first trick if the R bower is buried, and tricks are in short supply. Partner winning with the R is not a wasted trick, since your Ace becomes boss and the 10C is there to trump a spade, or second trick in a red suit (opponents may be out of trump at that juncture).

Comparing Clubs to Diamonds as a R2 bid by S1: (100,000 hands)
Clubs (lead JS): 4,750 / 26,304 / 12,724 EV = +0.24
Diamonds (lead AC, then 10C if win): 4.037 / 27,818 / 11,923 EV = +0.28

But here's the clincher - I also compared a Diamonds bid, R2, to passing: (new set of 100,000 hands)
Diamonds: EV = +0.28
Pass: EV = +0.42
S2 gets euchred A LOT, S3 makes a lot of nice bids when S2 passes, and S4 basically gets screwed if it gets that far (STD). Good call, Wes.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:57 pm

Ray,

I am curious for a reason.

When doing the 100,000 samples WHAT IS YOUR STANDARD DEVIATION? Or high and low for standard deviation. I see frequently 2.5 to 3.5. That is a very important stat to know for statistical significance.

IRISHWOLF

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:00 pm

raydog wrote:
Thu Dec 30, 2021 10:08 pm
But here's the clincher - I also compared a Diamonds bid, R2, to passing: (new set of 100,000 hands)
Diamonds: EV = +0.28
Pass: EV = +0.42
S2 gets euchred A LOT, S3 makes a lot of nice bids when S2 passes, and S4 basically gets screwed if it gets that far (STD). Good call, Wes.
Awesome. Yep as I strongly suspected it's rarely if ever correct to call marginal when one has a euchre hand.

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