Weekly Games 12/21, sitting in 1st, holding jack - jack

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Dlan
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Weekly Games 12/21, sitting in 1st, holding jack - jack

Unread post by Dlan » Thu Dec 24, 2020 1:14 pm

Here is an interesting situation, Your sit in 1st holding jack – jack and the dealer names trump. Any thoughts?

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https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D



Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Dec 25, 2020 5:53 pm

The eternal question of course is should S1 lead a bower or not. The truth is, we do not know the answer to that, but there is some weak evidence noted in my advanced question #19 suggesting leading a bower in this spot is best:
19) The score is 4-4. You're in seat 1. The dealer picks up the (Card_K-H)

You hold (Card_J-H), (Card_J-D), (Card_10-D), (Card_9-C), (Card_J-S)

What do you lead?

ANSWER: Lead one of the bowers (The poker player in me prefers leading the Right since it conveys less information than leading the Left). I posted this hand because it's inherently controversial and discussed here:

http://borf_books.tripod.com/ecolum91.htm#2bowers

Bottom line. The argument given for leading a bower is certainly not at the level of a mathematical proof, but it's more compelling than the other side, and at the end of the day all we can do is make decisions based on the best evidence available.
An alternative line--which I've seen Irishwolf do--is lead low from your doubleton offsuit (if you have it) hoping to promote your high card to boss status, then you hope trump gets led on a later street and at that point, you play both bowers and then your boss offsuit high card trying to get the euchre right there or clean out the maker of his last trump rendering the 5th trick a free for all you hope your P's offsuit can pick up.

With the precise holding S1 had:

(Card_J-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_J-S) (Card_J-H)

I would not have much confidence trying to promote a JD to boss status, therefore I would go with leading the Right, with the intention of leading the Left on trick 2 if I think there's a chance S2 can still have another trump. BTW those times S1 gets to clean out S2 of two trump is a virtual coup for S1's team, which is why I like leading trump in this spot so I can have that option should the opportunity present itself.

In the actual hand, from a purely results oriented perspective, the absolute worst result happened for S1's lead trump strategy. S2 showed void in trump and S1's P, S3, played the Ace of trump suggesting that's the only trump he has. If we were psychic and knew S2 had no trump, then S1 would never lead a bower in this spot since the whole purpose of this strategy is to try to prevent S2 from helping out in trump. When S2 is void in trump, leading trump now can only hurt S1's team.

So the entire strategy matrix goes like this:

Lead the Right, if everyone plays a trump then lead trump again if the dealer has two-trump calls in his range, the exception being if S2 plays the Ace of trump on the first lead suggesting he is now out of trump, then lead something else on the 2nd trick. If S2 shows void in trump on the first lead then hold back the Left and lead something else. If S2 plays a trump and your P, S3, shows void in trump, then lead trump again as S2 is now more likely to have 2 trump. I think that covers it all. So the "lead a bower" strategy is a bit more complicated then it may seem. There are a few things S1 needs to keep track of to execute this strategy well.

One thing that I think is important to bring up. While leading the Right from this hand configuration vs a dealer call is debatable, that is decidedly NOT the case vs a 2 seat call. Vs a 2 seat call, leading the Right is absolutely imperative. Remember the great advantage of a 2 seat call, the fact they their P is guaranteed to have 1 trump and almost always a void (except for 2-3 off ace scenarios). S1 needs to eliminate this advantage and S1 has the holding necessary to do that. Furthermore, since we know the dealer already has 1 trump, the chances of him having 2 trump goes up too, which is why it's critical we lead the Right, to give us the option of leading the Left and fully cleaning out the dealer. Leading both bowers can blow up a lot of S2 calls, and then you count on your P to pick up that offsuit trick later in the hand.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:59 pm

Leading the bower 1 time here and see what develops. After that you can have a set standard of pljay or you can deviate and play accordingly to information you recieved on opening lead.

Tbolt65
Edward

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