Weekly games 12/8 Hand #3 As dealer, Call or Pass

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Dlan
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Weekly games 12/8 Hand #3 As dealer, Call or Pass

Unread post by Dlan » Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:40 pm

Image

In north, bidding gets passed back to you. Do you call or pass?

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D



Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Dec 08, 2020 4:34 pm

This is what I would refer to as a championship call. 2 low trump + an off ace is a must call imo when you don't block any other suits (I would even call with a doubleton Next off ace when up 8-2). The cost of passing will now be high enough to make calling worth the gamble. IOW, making this marginal call will probably have a negative expected outcome, but passing when you block nothing probably has a higher negative expected outcome. In euchre offense is the best defense. Make this marginal call. Don't give S1 chance to go alone should he have it. This is especially critical up 8-2. The dealer made a great play, a play that 99% of the player base won't make becuz 99% don't play the situation, they just play their 5 cards.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:20 pm

This is a classic wes dealer donate. Which happens to make point. I've used to never donate like this before, but I like the merits of controling the game by doing this. Something Ive started to do ever since I met Wes. However, Im sure I dont do it nearly as much as Wes does.


Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 4:00 am

Tbolt65 wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:20 pm
This is a classic wes dealer donate. Which happens to make point. I've used to never donate like this before, but I like the merits of controling the game by doing this. Something Ive started to do ever since I met Wes. However, Im sure I dont do it nearly as much as Wes does.


Tbolt65
Edward
You know it tilts me when you call this a dealer donate! In actuality it's just a marginal +EV call just like calling with R+1+nothing else or QT9+nothing else is a marginal +EV call. Check out my post 5/22 7:01pm post from this thread: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=373

R+1+nothing, QT9+nothing, and the hand in the OP all have roughly the same expectation. Saying we should call with one hand and not the other is illogical. Of course if I have 2 out of 3 second round suits blocked I'm not calling with OP's hand type just as I'm generally not calling with R+1+nothing if I have all suits blocked but that's another subject.

If you wanna see a real championship dealer donate check out this hand:

Image

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

If one were writing a euchre book and wanted a page or two on dealer donates it would be hard to find a better example than this. Here the dealer blocks no 2nd round suits, his team has a big lead up 9-1, and the dealer is clearly donating with just 2 trump and nothing else. And look at the beautiful S1 4 point loner this dealer donate stopped!

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Dec 11, 2020 4:51 pm

I’m ordering at all scores, unless opponents have 8 points.

My BPS Calcs:
1.00 R1S4
0.50 Ad
0.50 Qc
0.75 As (Green Singleton Ace)
0.25 1 Void in hearts
3.00 vs 2.50 min so order with 77% expectation of success against average opp
____ Monday nights is not played against average opponents. So adjust.
-.25 The minimal adjustment. Excellent card playing only goes so far. The
2.75 Adjusted BPS, but based on offensive strength only. So let’s consider defense. There is no defensive strength in this hand:
0.00 Defensive adjustment
2.75 vs 2.50 min, 71% expectation. EV=.71*1-.29x2=+0.13

A positive EV, agreeing with Wes.

This is not a classic “donation.” However, notice that it does block a R2S1 heart loner, which would have been my R2S1 decision, if I was down 4 or more points.

There is “donation-like” benefits to ordering these marginal hands. If your hand is marginal, there is a higher probability that opponents have a loner hand. I suggest that the probability has increased from a 10% probability that opponents have a loner-order, by 50%, to a 15% probability. The EV adjustment could be as much as 5%x4=.20. Even if you factor getting 4 points at a 30% probability, that is still 30%x.2=.06. So IMO, the EV is 0.19 to 0.33. I don’t calculate that at the table, it simply suggests, as OE lessons state, “Euchre favors the aggressive player.” Tbolt reminds us though, “but not too aggressive.” I submit that ordering this hand meets those criteria.

A more fundamental guideline would be, if you have a marginal order, (especially R1S4 or R2S1), with no defensive strength, order.

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