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jblowery
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Next: What To Lead?

Unread post by jblowery » Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:54 am

I've had this happen a lot. Lets say hearts is turned down. I'm in 1st seat holding (Card_J-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_A-S) and 2 other cards. Don't want to get too specific because maybe those 2 cards affect what I lead but they aren't aces, jacks or Trump, and aren't 2 more spades but could be 1 more. Obviously I'm calling next but what do I lead and does it depend on what those other 2 cards are? Thanks



Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 12:32 pm

jblowery wrote:
Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:54 am
I've had this happen a lot. Lets say hearts is turned down. I'm in 1st seat holding (Card_J-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_A-S) and 2 other cards. Don't want to get too specific because maybe those 2 cards affect what I lead but they aren't aces, jacks or Trump, and aren't 2 more spades but could be 1 more. Obviously I'm calling next but what do I lead and does it depend on what those other 2 cards are? Thanks
I really think if you always lead the JD in this spot you'd be fine. But if you had a hand like this:

(Card_J-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_A-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-C)

There is a hypothesis that leading under your Right, I.E. leading the TD may be best. The power of this idea is not just the fact that when your P only has an unguarded Left you guys will never butt heads and blow both bowers on the same lead but critically when this strategy backfires, I.E. the Left is in enemy hands, you have another way to escape with your AsKs. Since if somebody leads a spade later in the hand, you can take that trick, then lead trump again with the Right, and send the other boss spade to victory. This strategy gets significantly dicier the less connected your off ace is. AsQs may work but I wouldn't try this with AsJs. The probability the Js wont be boss after the As lead is too high imo.

Again, leading under out of this configuration is all in hypothesis mode, and it's a very weak hypothesis at that. There is zero data backing it up. I do lead the TD when I have an off AsKs not becuz I believe it is correct. I'm merely in test mode, but this spot comes up so rarely it's hard to build any decent intuition around it. BTW never try this a with tripleton green ace or the turned down suit Ace, e.g. AhKh, in those cases, the probability you'll get that coveted offsuit lead when you need it is too low.

With such weak evidence backing up this exotic strategy the rational course is probably just to stick to the conventional strategy of leading the Right out of this configuration.

Tbolt65
Posts: 487
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Dec 06, 2020 4:36 pm

jblowery wrote:
Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:54 am
I've had this happen a lot. Lets say hearts is turned down. I'm in 1st seat holding (Card_J-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_A-S) and 2 other cards. Don't want to get too specific because maybe those 2 cards affect what I lead but they aren't aces, jacks or Trump, and aren't 2 more spades but could be 1 more. Obviously I'm calling next but what do I lead and does it depend on what those other 2 cards are? Thanks
It does matter and what card was turned down too. Yes it does depends. You may be passing or you may be calling.

Tbolt65
Edward

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