OE Games, Maker’s Trick 4 Decision

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Richardb02
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OE Games, Maker’s Trick 4 Decision

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:08 pm

What would you play as the maker in (South)? Trick 4, who called R2 S1 Next?

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D





Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:06 am

Richardb02 wrote:
Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:08 pm
What would you play as the maker in (South)? Trick 4, who called R2 S1 Next?

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D


S1 made a sound Next call with L+1+an off ace, a call he must make when he doesn't block reverse next. Leading the Tc as you did is the correct lead imo given you have an off Ace to promote. I would also lead the Tc even if I had no off ace to promote IF AND ONLY IF I had no voids. So S4 wins the first trick and on the 2nd trick you followed suit in spades and S4 won that trick too.

On the 3rd trick, S4 leads the TH. What should you do? To answer this question you first need to assume your Left is the boss trump. Why? Becuz if the Right is out then you are euchred no matter what you do. So the only scenarios that are strategically relevant are when the Right is in the Kitty. So at this strategic moment we know S3, our P, is out of trump and the KC and the QC are still out in the wild. The odds that both these cards are in the kitty along with the Right are pretty low. It's safe to assume at least one of the KC/QC trump cards are in your opponent's hands. This means if you burn your Left on S4's TH lead your team is extremely likely to be toast, so you can't do that. You have to play off and hope your P can take that trick, and that's exactly what you did, so well played on the 3rd trick.

Then on the 4th Trick your P double leads the AH and the dealer plays off. As before nothing has changed about this hand. It is very likely your opponents have at least 1 trump between them. If you burn the Left your team is set nearly every time. Your only way out of this is to play off on your opponent's AH, hoping S2 is either suited in with the JH (that's the only heart he can still logically have after he plays the QH) or S2 has no trump meaning the trump that is still out there is in S4's hand.

Another way to look at your 4th trick decision. I mentioned above how any scenario where your opponent's have the Right is strategically irrelevant becuz you would then be set no matter what you do. In addition to that, ANY scenario where the Right, KC, and QC are all buried in the kitty is also strategically irrelevant becuz you would make your point no matter what you do. So the ONLY scenario that matters is when your opponents hold at least one of the trump cards KC/QC. And in that scenario if you burn your Left on your P's AH lead your team is euchred 100% of the time, so you have to play off and pray that AH somehow walks.
Last edited by Wes (aka the legend) on Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:30 am

Another thing we can deduce about this hand is S4's decision to throw off on S3's 4th trick AH double lead is incorrect. By this point in the hand there are things we know.

1) We know S3 has no trump.

2) We know S1 doesn't have the Right given his first lead of the Tc. While it's technically possible S1 could be leading under the Right, those inherently debatable scenarios where it may be correct to lead under the Right are rare enough to be severely discounted.

3) All scenarios where S2 has the Right are strategically irrelevant from S4's perspective since his team will euchre you no matter what he does. And a corollary to that is all scenarios where S1 has Left+Qc are strategically irrelevant since that would mean S1 is going to make his point no matter what S4 does. It is also worth noting that any scenario where S1 has only the Qc or no trump is also irrelevant since that would mean S4's team gets the euchre no matter what he does. The ONLY scenario that strategically matters from S4's perspective is precisely when S1 holds the Left.

3a) When S1 holds the Left and S2 has the QC, S4's team secures the euchre every time he trumps the AH with his KC. When S2 is void in trump, S1's team scores a point every time when S4 does not trump the AH with his KC. So S4 is better off trumping the AH lead in every scenario that matters. Therefore S4 not trumping the AH lead with his KC was a clear mistake but he got bailed out becuz S1 made an even bigger mistake. Fun hand. :)

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:32 pm

Thank you Wes for your detailed analysis. I am trying to derive a general guideline. A fundamental guideline, as you have worded the concept in a previous post. I am confident that can be accomplished.

An overly general guideline would be, only consider card distribution where you have the potential to win the hand. That is too general though to apply in a real game.

I suggest, when the hand turns against you, look for potential boss cards (assume the boss is in the kitty). more specifically the Left of trump (usually) or the King of an off suit. Then play as if the real boss card is in the kitty.

This hand turned against S1 in R1. Partner, S3 was void in trump! S1 has his back against the wall after R2. S2S4 winning a 2nd trick. He should, at this point been aware that bosses had to be in the kitty if his team was to win the hand.

S1 made the correct decision, to play off. IMO, this is based on, give your partner a chance. In this hand, S1 needed S3 to take a trick, so there was no other choice. This was a reasonable round that S3 could take a trick. The fundamental principle, give your partner a chance, worked. It even got better. S3 lead a boss off suit.

S4 ducked the boss lead. S1 failed to realize that his hopeful boss, the Left was needed to cover R5. So he needed to throw off (a boss off suit, which made the decision tougher) to preserve the only possible winning play.

Does that make sense? Any suggestions?

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Dec 06, 2020 4:47 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:08 pm
What would you play as the maker in (South)? Trick 4, who called R2 S1 Next?

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D


You have to play off again on ace of hearts. There are too many hearts left. When dealer throws off on second heart. The odds are his partner may still have one. 3 hearts where shown on the first lead through. Your partner leads heart a second time. Thats 4 hearts accounted for. Dealer throws off. There are 2 remaining hearts left. Your partner is void in trump. If they have the right still. Your still set. You need to lay off here in hopes it goes and that the right is buried. Only shot of making it. There is still 3 trump unaccounted for. So if you toss the potential boss trump you are like euchred on your diamond Ace.

Tbolt65
Edward

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