What would be your decision in this hand?

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XaviRonaldo
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Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:41 am

What would be your decision in this hand?

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:15 am

So, I sat in 1st seat ahead 9-7 holding

(Card_J-H) (Card_9-S) (Card_J-D) (Card_A-D) (Card_10-D)

With the (Card_A-S) turned up.

Guaranteed winning hand if they pass but you lose if they have a loner.

After agonising for about 15 seconds I decided discretion was the better part of valour and ordered it up. I'm not sure if they would've picked it up as my LHO only had the (Card_J-S) and my RHO only had one other Trump.

We inevitably got euchred and fortunately I got an unbeatable hand as dealer FTW.

Would you have ordered up following the order at the bridge logic or would you have passed with a guaranteed winning hand in diamonds? I kind of subscribe to the theory that with me holding a hand full of red they're likely to pick it up anyway so passing is probably a bad idea in case they have a loner.



jblowery
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Unread post by jblowery » Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:47 am

If I had a bigger lead, yes. But not at 9-7

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:03 pm

Up 9-7/9-6 it's a must order. Never let a loner beat you in that spot when you're gonna have 65% to 72% equity on the Next hand. Up 9-5 it's close. I'm ok with either choice.

XaviRonaldo
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Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:41 am

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Sat Dec 05, 2020 4:32 pm

jblowery wrote:
Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:47 am
If I had a bigger lead, yes. But not at 9-7
You mean if they had <6 points you'd pass? Of course that's a no brainer to pass with a winning hand in diamonds and them not in loner range.

XaviRonaldo
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:41 am

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Sat Dec 05, 2020 4:36 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:03 pm
Up 9-7/9-6 it's a must order. Never let a loner beat you in that spot when you're gonna have 65% to 72% equity on the Next hand. Up 9-5 it's close. I'm ok with either choice.
There's also the theory that they're very likely to pick it up anyway with such a hand in your own hand. So really you're only giving them 1 extra point. Also if they were going to pass there's a fair chance your partner has a hand that can help you win that spades call.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Dec 06, 2020 4:30 pm

You did fine. Protecting and getting your deal is all you can really do at this score and your hand.

Tbolt65
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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:29 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:03 pm
Up 9-7/9-6 it's a must order. Never let a loner beat you in that spot when you're gonna have 65% to 72% equity on the Next hand. Up 9-5 it's close. I'm ok with either choice.
I'm with Wes here ; call the prevent/donation at 9-7 but I'm not calling up 9-5. Worse case it's 9-9 your deal with said advantage (albeit at 9-9 it's only ~67% or so).

jblowery
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Unread post by jblowery » Mon Dec 07, 2020 11:57 am

XaviRonaldo wrote:
Sat Dec 05, 2020 4:32 pm
jblowery wrote:
Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:47 am
If I had a bigger lead, yes. But not at 9-7
You mean if they had <6 points you'd pass? Of course that's a no brainer to pass with a winning hand in diamonds and them not in loner range.
No, I'd order if I had a bigger lead. 9-7 is too close for me. I donate and now it's 9-9 and I only have a very slight advantage having the deal. Id rather take my chances on the loner than put them in this position. They may pass (very unlikely with us having 9) and we win. They may go alone but they may not. Even if they do go alone, they only have a 40-45% chance of making it on average.

That's also an ace instead of a jack that's the upcard and I have a trump and an off-suite ace (albeit not close to a singleton) in my hand. There are situations where I'd order at 9-7 but the discrepancy in cards doesn't rise to that level for me.

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