Weekly games 11/24 - A 'by the book' End Play

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Dlan
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Weekly games 11/24 - A 'by the book' End Play

Unread post by Dlan » Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:53 pm

Now that we have 4 players for the OE games, I’m going to start posting some of the hands again. However, I think we need to do things a little differently. Any reference to players will be removed and I will only show seat positions. (North, South, and so on). If you played and remember this hand, please keep that to yourself. The focus should be on the cards played and not who played them.

In the following example, I’d like to show a “by the book” end play. Watch East set it up and collect a point for the effort.

Image

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D



Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:34 pm

Yep, without an Ace to promote and having the AhJh it's time play a garbage card, play it safe and scratch out a point. That said, if my team was down 9-8, I may gamble and lead the Right. Yes this strategy opens me up more to getting euchred but it probably nets more 2 pt marches. That's a controversial claim, but at the very least I think it's reasonable to lead the Right in that spot only down 9-8. At all other scores take the safe line and set up an end play.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:19 am

Than you Wes for your strategic insights into East’s play.

Please let me know if my paraphrase matches your thinking. East made a highly strategic decision to play for 1 point instead of 2 points. If you had an ace you may have decided differently. (I will also add that East was up 7-3. So play conservatively since an 8-3 lead is super strong). So play the garbage card to guard against an Lx in an opponent’s hand. (Note, North had Lx)! Is that a match?

That leads to other questions!

East has a decent Loner hand. Personally, except for the Monday night game, an example of high caliber opponents, I would have ordered Alone.

The related similar question if East goes Alone, would you duck an Ace lead by South and play the Td? East gives up playing for 4 and plays for 1 to keep last play.

The unrelated question is should South lead the long suited As as opposed to the Ac lead for a regular order?

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:38 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:19 am
East has a decent Loner hand. Personally, except for the Monday night game, an example of high caliber opponents, I would have ordered Alone.
Right+Ace+X in trump + a connected green off Queen (QJ) or connected Next Queen (QT) used to be in the bottom of my loner range no matter what the score except for 8/9. I took it out for standard, non-desperate situations after reading Eric Zalas' book. The empirical evidence in Zala's book is not that strong and it's not even analogous. There's only two examples of this hand type and both are Seat #2 loners. Nevertheless this is the best evidence we currently have, which suggests that calling with this hand is better than going alone. So that's what I'm going with for now.
"Hand 91: Dealer turns down the 9 of clubs. Seat #2 holds Jack-Ace-Q of hearts and the Queen-Jack of spades. Seat #2 names hearts trump and plays alone. E0 = 1.019. N = 159

(Card_J-H) (Card_A-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_Q-S) (Card_J-S)

Analysis: When this hand is played alone from seat #2, Hand 91 has a 91.82% win rate and a mean expected outcome of 1.019 points per attempt based on a sample set of 159 hands played. While this is a solid hand, playing it alone is an aggressive reach when the loner success rate (8.81%) is essentially equal to the euchre rate (8.18%). The Euchremetrics presented suggest that Hand 91 is best played with your partner especially from seat #2 when the opponent has the opportunity to lead his long, non-trump suit or spades across the picker."


Another example:
"Hand 100: Dealer turns up the 10 of diamonds. Seat #2 holds the Jack-A-Q of diamonds, and Queen-10 of hearts. Seat #2 orders the dealer to pick up the diamond and plays alone. EO = .945, N = 385

(Card_J-D) (Card_A-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H)

Analysis: In this scenario the player in seat #2 orders his partner to pick up the ten of diamonds and then plays the hand alone. This hand has an 87.27% win rate and a mean expected outcome of 0.945 points per attempt when ordered from the #2 seat based on a sample of 385 hands played. This hand takes all five tricks just 10.91% of the time based on this data set. The optimal strategy for seat #2 with this holding is to play with his partner. When this hand is played with the partner, it generates a 95.44% win rate and a mean expected outcome of 1.175 points per attempt based on a sample size of 285 hands played. This hand takes all five tricks--and generates an explosive play--about 31% of the time when played with the partner based on this sample data set."
Richardb02 wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:19 am
The related similar question if East goes Alone, would you duck an Ace lead by South and play the Td? East gives up playing for 4 and plays for 1 to keep last play.
If I go alone with this hand, I'm not giving up a 4 pt chance on the first lead. I would trump that offsuit lead and then lead the Right and take it from there. The more pertinent question is: Say I lead the Right and the Left doesn't come out (assume one or both of our enemies didn't show void in trump on our Right bower lead), should I sell out and lead the Ace of trump or play it safer and lead the Qd. Even if desperate I would never sell out on an off Q, but there are times I will sell out on a suited Ace, and I do get tempted to sell out on a suited KQ.
Richardb02 wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:19 am
The unrelated question is should South lead the long suited As as opposed to the Ac lead for a regular order? [/color]
In this hand I would lead the Ac for a regular order and vs a loner. Given that all you have is a low trump (Qh) the last thing you want to do is to induce your partner to burn a trump on the first lead. This could actually be a catastrophe if the maker doesn't have JJx and your P has a guarded Ax in trump and blows it up by trumping your ace. Now if you had a lone high trump like the Ace of trump or the Left, THEN you want to lead your dirtiest Ace (As) hoping your partner can trump high and force out that higher trump that could make your trump boss.

Vs a regular order, having a high trump doesn't impact strategy. I would always lead the Ac. You're trying to stop the enemy from getting 2 points. Lead the off ace that's most likely to get a trick right away. Hope the dirty ace makes it later when more trump has been played.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:56 am

Thanks Wes. Based on your evidence, I will raise my Loner range by 2 klicks. And 3 klicks, against quality opponents. I can foresee earning 2 points frequently enough that I will win more games decided on the last hand. Maybe even a 5 to 10% improvement.

My goal is to make better life and Euchre decisions, based on better information. You have helped me with your information. Thanks again.

I need to review the OE lesson, Defending Against a Loner, and other lessons, before going into more detail about your Loner guidance.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Nov 28, 2020 1:03 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:38 pm
Richardb02 wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:19 am
The unrelated question is should South lead the long suited As as opposed to the Ac lead for a regular order? [/color]
In this hand I would lead the Ac for a regular order and vs a loner. Given that all you have is a low trump (Qh) the last thing you want to do is to induce your partner to burn a trump on the first lead. This could actually be a catastrophe if the maker doesn't have JJx and your P has a guarded Ax in trump and blows it up by trumping your ace. Now if you had a lone high trump like the Ace of trump or the Left, THEN you want to lead your dirtiest Ace (As) hoping your partner can trump high and force out that higher trump that could make your trump boss.

Vs a regular order, having a high trump doesn't impact strategy. I would always lead the Ac. You're trying to stop the enemy from getting 2 points. Lead the off ace that's most likely to get a trick right away. Hope the dirty ace makes it later when more trump has been played.
Yes, bright as day. I went to “Tips Info” then “Stopping a Loner.” The 1st lesson states, “If you hold 2 aces, lead the ace in the suit you have the least of.” That is the fundamental rule or auto-pilot rule.

Don’t make my mistake and add to the fundamental rule.

Of course, fundamental rules have their exceptions. Wes points out an exception, actually 2 exemptions. But, don’t look at the exception unless you have it nailed. (A Singleton off suit Ace, a Tripleton off suit Ace and either L or A of trump). Learn from my mistake. Do not make the exception a fundamental rule.

Fundamental rules, rule!

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