Next From Seat 2

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jblowery
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Next From Seat 2

Unread post by jblowery » Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:18 pm

Diamonds is turned down. I'm in seat 2 and it comes back to me for R2. I'm holding (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) and not much else in my hand. Order?



Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:21 pm

I definitely call hearts. Yes this hand will go set more than we'd like but we still have 3 trump and could get lucky. The alternative of passing the ball to S3 with an essentially dead defensive hand that blocks nothing is not acceptable. That's the fun part of this game. We're often forced into making super marginal calls we'd rather not make, often calls with a negative expected outcome, but we do it becuz the cost of passing is even higher. Think about how boring euchre would be if you played it like most people play it, sitting around waiting for a hand trying not to get euchred. It's basically bingo at that point.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:07 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:21 pm
I definitely call hearts. Yes this hand will go set more than we'd like but we still have 3 trump and could get lucky. The alternative of passing the ball to S3 with an essentially dead defensive hand that blocks nothing is not acceptable. That's the fun part of this game. We're often forced into making super marginal calls we'd rather not make, often calls with a negative expected outcome, but we do it becuz the cost of passing is even higher. Think about how boring euchre would be if you played it like most people play it, sitting around waiting for a hand trying not to get euchred. It's basically bingo at that point.
Excellent points Wes! You summed up the situation perfectly.

Let me quantify using the BPS approach. It supports Wes 100%. Then let me add an “Advanced BPS” thought, specifically a more accurate way to predict the success of the hand.

I want to analyze the weakest hand as JB described:
(Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-C) (Card_9-S)
1.25 points R2S2
0.50 Kh
0.50 Qh
0.25 9h
0.50 3 Trump
0.25 1 Void
3.25 Total points, well above 2.50 points, so order. But:

3.25 points indicates an 83% probability of success (taking 3 tricks)! That simply is too high, to any experienced player. I agree. The main reason is that Partner doesn’t have Jd or Jh, or Partner should have ordered (or is very a very weak player, which I am leaving out of this analysis). So for probability analysis, I would de-rate the hand for “probability of taking 3 tricks,” by 0.75 points (my maximum adjustment for any single adjustment. That leaves me at 2.50 points (still enough to order) but reducing the probability of earning a point at 65%. That is a break even, edge hand, meaning I expect to get euchred 1 out of 3 hands. Debatable but reasonable, IMO.

So, like Wes, I order knowing that I have also blocked giving S3 2 or even 4 points, in addition to a break even order.


jblowery
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Unread post by jblowery » Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:08 pm

Thanks. What if one of those black 9s was actually a black jack? So you now have everything blocked. Sounds like you're saying based upon BPS to still call hearts.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:33 pm

For example:
R2S2 (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_J-C) (Card_9-C)
3.25 total BPS, the same as my previous post
-.50 Loners blocked (-.75 euchre hand ie 2 black Bowers)
2.75 Still a viable hand to order, so I order, but
Reasonable players may think that passing is better.
I suggest strong players adjust an additional -.25, -.50 or -.75 points, based on their experienced intuition. If they consider blocking all Loners and having a possible euchre is stronger than my -.50 adjustment, that is a reasonable disagreement.

Based on Wes’ post, he would consider passing this hand. He may be making his decision based on him cataloging how players handle certain hands. He may be using his intuition (his experience and/or subconscious mind adding additional but non-describable information). That is above my pay grade. I just accept it as a reasonable pass. That way I have cleared my mind to play the next hand to the best of my skills!

jblowery
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Unread post by jblowery » Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:39 pm

(Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_J-S) (Card_10-C)

Now everything is blocked, nearly. Remember diamonds is no longer an option.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:01 pm

jblowery wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:39 pm
(Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_J-S) (Card_10-C)

Now everything is blocked, nearly. Remember diamonds is no longer an option.

Yeah with this hand I would pass. Yeah we technically don't have hearts blocked but it's close enough. I'm not calling marginal when I basically have all suits covered.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:03 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:33 pm
For example:
R2S2 (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_J-C) (Card_9-C)
With this hand I'm calling clubs every time.

Can't pass R+1 in reverse next + two voids when we don't have all suits blocked.

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:34 am

Assuming you call and take the first trick with your 9 of clubs, what would you lead next?

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:32 am

Dlan wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:34 am
Assuming you call and take the first trick with your 9 of clubs, what would you lead next?
I would then lead the Kh. Without an ace to promote, I'm not leading the Right. The exception would be if my partner threw off with an off ace on the first lead. E.G. S1 leads the As, I trump in with the 9c, S3 follows suit and my P throws off the Ad. I would interpret that as my P being loaded, therefore I'm now leading the Right.

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Fri Nov 20, 2020 9:46 am

:) Good answer

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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:45 pm

jblowery wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:18 pm
Diamonds is turned down. I'm in seat 2 and it comes back to me for R2. I'm holding (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) and not much else in my hand. Order?
Call me lame, but I'm passing second round too, because I trust my partner has something decent in reverse. I have next nearly blocked, but again it depends on score, partner and level playing against/with

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:55 am

Richardb02 wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:33 pm
For example:
R2S2 (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_J-C) (Card_9-C)
3.25 total BPS, the same as my previous post
-.50 Loners blocked (-.75 euchre hand ie 2 black Bowers)
2.75 Still a viable hand to order, so I order, but
Reasonable players may think that passing is better.
I suggest strong players adjust an additional -.25, -.50 or -.75 points, based on their experienced intuition. If they consider blocking all Loners and having a possible euchre is stronger than my -.50 adjustment, that is a reasonable disagreement.

Based on Wes’ post, he would consider passing this hand. He may be making his decision based on him cataloging how players handle certain hands. He may be using his intuition (his experience and/or subconscious mind adding additional but non-describable information). That is above my pay grade. I just accept it as a reasonable pass. That way I have cleared my mind to play the next hand to the best of my skills!
Wes has correctly corrected me. Thank you Wes.

A Reverse Next order is definitely the strongest play. I simply blew it, because I was fixated on the question and missed the more important factors. If I had continued my analysis to include Reverse Next using BPS
1.25 R2S2
1.00 Jc
0.25 9c
0.25 R+1
0.75 2 Voids/ 2 Suited
3.50 points, stronger than 3.25 for a 3 trump Next order.


Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:28 am

LeftyK wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:45 pm
jblowery wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:18 pm
Diamonds is turned down. I'm in seat 2 and it comes back to me for R2. I'm holding (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) and not much else in my hand. Order?
Call me lame, but I'm passing second round too, because I trust my partner has something decent in reverse. I have next nearly blocked, but again it depends on score, partner and level playing against/with
Lefty I suggest that you reread Wes’ posts.

Focus on several points that are subtle and you may have missed:
1. S3 has to order before your partner, S4 gets to order. Based on the 6 cards that you have seen S3 has an above average probability of a strong hand and maybe even a Loner, even in reverse next. BTW, you ordered aggressively Monday night. Per Dlan, in the OE lessons aggressive ordering wins more than passing. Why change your persona, especially when it agrees with the OE guidance?
2. Wes paraphrased says, if you are weak defensively, including in reverse next, then ordering even with a marginal hand is the best play, even if you get euchred more often than you would like. You have negated any possibility of S3 ordering.
3. If you have a defensive hand, ie reverse next blocked then passing is his recommendation. Look beyond the 3 hearts and offensive ordering only. Take into account the defensive strength of your hand. Jc 9s or Js 9c is enough to block reverse next. If you don’t have at least this strength in black then base your decision on point 2.

XaviRonaldo
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Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:32 am

jblowery wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:18 pm
Diamonds is turned down. I'm in seat 2 and it comes back to me for R2. I'm holding (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) and not much else in my hand. Order?
A score dependant call for me.

I know you said you have not much else but if I hold both black suits loners stopped I'm definitely passing. But if a euchre isn't too harmful I'm definitely calling hearts in 'the not much else's hand. However if we are on 6 or 7 I might still pass depending on what the other team's score in case my partner has a black loner.

XaviRonaldo
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Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:39 am

LeftyK wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:45 pm
jblowery wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:18 pm
Diamonds is turned down. I'm in seat 2 and it comes back to me for R2. I'm holding (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) and not much else in my hand. Order?
Call me lame, but I'm passing second round too, because I trust my partner has something decent in reverse. I have next nearly blocked, but again it depends on score, partner and level playing against/with
Your partner could have junk too and 3rd seat could have a loner. Depending on the score I think you have to call hearts as a defensive call more than anything. Obviously if the opponents are on 8 I'd probably pass. Far too weak a hand to risk getting euchred to lose.

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