XaviRonaldo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:36 pm
Now to the hand in question...
I was in 1st seat and a black card which I forget what it was got turned down and I held...
It was still pretty early in the game so I called hearts because I had 2 and had all the off-suit aces. I guess next would've been a more appropriate call but having all those aces and 2 trump I decided hearts was a better call (it wasn't and 2nd seat had trumps stacked on me).
One thing is for sure, you did not make a poor call. It's certainly a marginal/debatable call but that is by definition not a poor call.
XaviRonaldo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:36 pm
I know the EV calculations would say I should've called next but in the end it didn't matter as next call was still probably a euchre.
Unfortunately we do not know the EV calcs for calling Next with your hand vs jumping the fence in hearts. We all get the general idea: if it's close veer towards calling Next but that still begs the question of how we define "close". In your hand we can jump the fence with two low trump (I define all non-bower trump as low trump) + 3 off aces or we can call Next with 1 low trump and 2 off aces. Are those two hands close enough to justify a Next call instead of a heart call? We cannot know without that mythical euchre simulator.
What I will say is I am skeptical of the idea that this is a clear hearts call. I think a Next call still has a good shot of coming out ahead in the long run, and I would tend to call Next in this spot. But I accept the fact that I could easily be wrong. That said tho there is a condition where I am much more confident that a Next call is the play, and that is when your partner is an expert and he has confidence in your 2nd rd play. Why? Becuz an expert is going to be bagging heavily from the 3rd spot knowing 3 good outcomes can happen if he passes:
1) Your team euchres the dealer
2) The dealer passes, you call something from S1 and get a pt anyways.
3) The dealer passes and you call from S1 and get 2 points or go alone and get 4 pts.
Keep in mind whenever you call in 3rd, 1st rd, every time the dealer would've called had you past you cost your team, every time the dealer would've passed and your partner had a 1 pt call you cost your team by taking an unnecessary risk, and every time you call and the dealer would've passed and your partner had a 4 pt 2nd rd loner you really cost your team, sometimes the ultimate cost: Your 3rd seat call gets euchred even tho the dealer would've passed and your P had a 4 pt loner (a 6 pt negative swing!)
Here's some examples of how tight an expert can play from 3rd. When I play with Edward (tbolt65)--who is one of the strongest players in the world--and I have these hands in the 3rd spot I am never calling except in a close-out situation, I.E. we have 9 thus we gain nothing from euchring the dealer:
Dealer up card:
I have:
or I have:
or I have:
In all 3 situations, I'm gonna pass and try to get my cake and eat it too, knowing I got a partner I can depend on in the 2nd round who will make the proper thin defensive calls when he doesn't block reverse next. Notice in all 3 hands above I have at least 2 tricks in Next.
Now the real point of this all is that when an expert is playing 3rd seat properly his range will be even more tilted towards a Next call than usual. And becuz of that I feel confident in saying that you should call Next with your hand if someone like me or Edward were your partner in 3rd. But the thing is 99% of the time you'll be playing with some random, and yes a Next call will still hit their range more often than other suits but it's not as prominent as the expert example. So in theory even when your partner is a random you should be willing to call Next if your hand is slightly worse than a reverse next call due to the fact that you're still more likely to hit a random partner and a reverse next call is more likely to hit your enemy. But then it's back to square one, how much worse can that Next call be or conversely how much better does your jumping the fence hand have to be to justify jumping the fence.
And finally here's yet another can of worms we have to open! All the while we are talking about calling hearts vs calling next and there is a 3rd option that one can argue for! What about passing? Now my general rule of thumb in this spot is (you said it was early in the game) always call something from S1, 2nd rd, veering towards Next if you don't block reverse Next. The idea is play strong defense as that is S1's job. Fear passing when you don't have key suits blocked more than you fear the euchre becuz when you don't have much defense getting euchred actually doesn't cost that much theoretically.
Well your very hand may be an exception to the rule. Notice if you pass you have 2 off aces no matter what Seat 2 calls. That's pretty strong defense right there. One could argue with decent defense like that S1 shouldn't feel compelled to call marginal and risk a euchre. I don't know the answer to this, as I said, even with a random P I would tend to call Next but I'm not sure about it, and with an expert P I am very confident calling Next is best. What I am sure about tho is if I had that mythical euchre simulator I would have to compare 3 strategies to get at the truth of the matter, not two.