Another Dealer Order R1S4

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Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Another Dealer Order R1S4

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:41 pm

I am the dealer
Up Card (Card_A-H) Score 2-0 Nominally equal and average players
S4 Dealer (Card_10-D) (Card_J-D) (Card_9-C) (Card_10-S) (Card_K-S)
I have (Card_J-D) (Card_A-H) in trump, 3 Suited
A near the edge hand with 1 void.
I have Next blocked, even a possible euchre hand in Next! Decent defense.
However, in my mind, it seems like every time that I pass, Opponents order Clubs and get a point.
So, I ordered.
Would you pass or order?

From my BPS perspective:
1.00 R1S4
0.75 L (Jd)
0.50 Ah
0.25 L+1
0.25 1 Void
2.75 >2.50 min, estimated 71% success
-.25 Adjust because Next is blocked
2.50 Where I stopped and ordered
-.25 Adjust because I have 2 probable tricks in Next? This would be a definite adjustment if S1 aggressively ordered Next. I would pass. But with average, average meaning weak opponents, I expect them to pass on Next. So I ignored this adjustment, did not apply -.25 and ordered.
2.25 Adjusted BPS vs. strong S1 Next player. I would pass.

I think that using numerical values and BPS accurately reflects how difficult it is to make a decision with this hand.

What do you think?





jblowery
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:48 pm

I don't pick that up, or the one on the other thread. I take the chance that opponent could have a loner. This is very likely losing 2 pts.

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:16 am

jblowery wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:48 pm
I don't pick that up, or the one on the other thread. I take the chance that opponent could have a loner. This is very likely losing 2 pts.
Do you disagree with my 1st point in these threads, that these are near edge and edge hands?

Specifically, for this post that this is one factor stronger than the edge order?

Maybe it helps to understand, that I consider an edge hand as one where my team’s net result, is a break even situation. Break even, IMO, is that EV (Estimated Value) of ordering is 0. I will earn 1 point 2/3 of the time and get euchred 1/3 of the time. So 1x2/3 -2x1/3= 2/3-2/3= 0. Ignoring other factors, I then strategize that settling for a 0.0 net score is better than accepting an expected negative outcome. That negative outcome is a minimum -0.5 point result and probably much higher since the opponents have a greater than average chance of taking 4 points.

Ordering this hand is supported by OE lessons stating that, “aggressive players win at Euchre more often then passive players.” OE lessons are excellent for beginners to casual players. Beginners to Casual Players, need to order more often, to improve your results, IMO. As I moved to a casual plus level, I have added the defensive value of hands as additional factors. (Score, players skills, stoppers, euchre hands and donating are also considered). Wes’ Advanced Euchre Quiz and posts have been instrumental in applying these factors. These posts are available on the OE forum. Wes and I disagree on the precise value of these factors, not the basic concept. Wes, Dlan, Tbolt and others are still much more advanced than me. I am trying to catch up!

For this post though and my similar post, the defensive and other factors fail to offset ordering aggressively.

jblowery
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:22 pm

I just think you'll lose significantly more points than you gain (beyond what you'd lose from passing) if u pick that up

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:44 pm

With Next blocked I'm not calling with this hand. Add a green off ace to this hand and I call even if I block Next assuming I only block 1 out of 3 suits.

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