Dealer Order? R1S4

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Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Dealer Order? R1S4

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:36 pm

What is your thinking on this hand?
Up Card (Card_K-H) Score 7-2 Equal Players
S4 (Dealer) (Card_K-D) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_K-S)
I have (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) in trump and 2 suited
That is right at the edge for me, a minimum call
But I have no defense against a Next R2S1 order, so I lean order,
I have a 5 point lead, so I lean Donate or semi-Donate,
So I call. Any other recommendations?

From a BPS perspective:
1.00 R1S4
0.50 Kh
0.25 Th
0.75 2 Voids (2 Suited)
2.50 Exactly the minimum, so I expect to get euchred 1 out of 3 hands.
0.25 Adjust BPS to reflect no defense vs. Next
0.25 Adjust BPS because I can “afford” to donate, with a lead >= 3 points
3.00 Adjusted BPS, to reflect these 2 factors, So I order.

Am I missing anything?

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Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:40 pm

My guess is you're getting euchred closer to 2 out of 3 times. Nevertheless I think this call is a good dealer donate. Dealer donates are inherently debatable/hard to prove correct, but up 7-2 with your specific holding--blocking nothing with no off aces--Im calling also.

Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:14 am

Excellent! We have identified a significant, quantifiable and testable difference of opinion!

I have stated my conclusion, that I will be euchred about 1/3rd of the time. I base this on my actual results with this hand and similarly-BPS-rated hands. I further back it with my “getting euchred” rate of 19-20%. (If I was getting euchred 2/3rds of the time, then my overall getting euchred rate should be much greater). I also certainly respect your conclusion that I would get euchred 2/3rds of the time.

I believe that we can test this hand with the resources right here on OE. We can play out 400 simulations and have strong confidence in the euchre rate for this hand!

Are you on board?

jblowery
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:44 am

Id be very surprised if u win that 2/3 of the time. That being said, I think anything close to 2/3 would be good because you're also going to have a net loss over time if you pass and give S1 first choice. This is one of those situations where I think you're going to have a net loss of points on average no matter what you do. The question is in which case is your net loss the lowest?

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:52 pm

I misread the hand and thought we had a 2 trump 3 suited hand when we actually have a 2 trump 2 suited hand. I still suspect that getting euchred only 1/3 of the time is too optimistic, but I agree that this is an edge hand in the sense that even at 0-0 I wonder if making this call is worth it. If I had to pull a guess out of my ass at the euchre frequency of this hand I would go with around 50%. And then it comes down to comparing that cost to the cost of passing. As Jblowery said, "This is one of those situations where I think you're going to have a net loss of points on average no matter what you do. The question is in which case is your net loss the lowest?"

That said I still have a problem with this logic:
Richardb02 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:14 am
I base this on my actual results with this hand and similarly-BPS-rated hands.
This spot is rare enough that it would take a hell of a lot of euchre playing to get a decent sample size, and one would have to be meticulously documenting these dealer semi-donate hands to boot. I can't help but be skeptical when someone says "I base this on my actual results with this hand" given how glitchy human brains are (this is why I don't trust my own opinion on this either).

I have a bigger problem with this part:
Richardb02 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:14 am
I further back it with my “getting euchred” rate of 19-20%. (If I was getting euchred 2/3rds of the time, then my overall getting euchred rate should be much greater).

Dealer donates are infrequent events. I doubt that a relatively high euchre rate on dealer donates are gonna move the needle much on one's overall euchre rate very much. So this argument line is not compelling to me. I can't remember the last time I dealer donated (of course this could also mean I don't do it enough).

What I would say is to the extent dealer donates have a place in euchre (I believe they do), certainly the "premium" dealer donates would be the 2 trump 2 suited no off ace hands.
Richardb02 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:14 am
I believe that we can test this hand with the resources right here on OE. We can play out 400 simulations and have strong confidence in the euchre rate for this hand!
Really? How is that possible? All I know is playing out 400 hands on the kitchen table would be extremely tedious. You could assign the dealer the same hand over and over and shuffle the cards and deal to the other players, but every time you dealt out the cards and S1, S2 or S3 had a legit calling hand you'd have to cancel the hand and reshuffle.

Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:22 pm

I was hoping to use the OE Workshop. Unfortunately I am struggling to get it to work.

Perhaps Dlan can give us some guidance?

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:57 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:22 pm
I was hoping to use the OE Workshop. Unfortunately I am struggling to get it to work.

Perhaps Dlan can give us some guidance?
I toyed with that and failed awhile ago but I have zero patience :-)

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