I misread the hand and thought we had a 2 trump 3 suited hand when we actually have a 2 trump 2 suited hand. I still suspect that getting euchred only 1/3 of the time is too optimistic, but I agree that this is an edge hand in the sense that even at 0-0 I wonder if making this call is worth it. If I had to pull a guess out of my ass at the euchre frequency of this hand I would go with around 50%. And then it comes down to comparing that cost to the cost of passing. As Jblowery said, "This is one of those situations where I think you're going to have a net loss of points on average no matter what you do. The question is in which case is your net loss the lowest?"
That said I still have a problem with this logic:
Richardb02 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:14 am
I base this on my actual results with this hand and similarly-BPS-rated hands.
This spot is rare enough that it would take a hell of a lot of euchre playing to get a decent sample size, and one would have to be meticulously documenting these dealer semi-donate hands to boot. I can't help but be skeptical when someone says "I base this on my actual results with this hand" given how glitchy human brains are (this is why I don't trust my own opinion on this either).
I have a bigger problem with this part:
Richardb02 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:14 am
I further back it with my “getting euchred” rate of 19-20%. (If I was getting euchred 2/3rds of the time, then my overall getting euchred rate should be much greater).
Dealer donates are infrequent events. I doubt that a relatively high euchre rate on dealer donates are gonna move the needle much on one's overall euchre rate very much. So this argument line is not compelling to me. I can't remember the last time I dealer donated (of course this could also mean I don't do it enough).
What I would say is to the extent dealer donates have a place in euchre (I believe they do), certainly the "premium" dealer donates would be the 2 trump 2 suited no off ace hands.
Richardb02 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:14 am
I believe that we can test this hand with the resources right here on OE. We can play out 400 simulations and have strong confidence in the euchre rate for this hand!
Really? How is that possible? All I know is playing out 400 hands on the kitchen table would be extremely tedious. You could assign the dealer the same hand over and over and shuffle the cards and deal to the other players, but every time you dealt out the cards and S1, S2 or S3 had a legit calling hand you'd have to cancel the hand and reshuffle.
Score 7-2 Equal Players
