Euchre Strategy Ordering/ Bidding Alone/ ordering a Loner

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Euchre Strategy Ordering/ Bidding Alone/ ordering a Loner

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:45 pm

This is the 5th of a series of Basic Euchre Ordering.
Ordering a Loner is your opportunity to take 4 points, 40% of the points needed to win the typical 10 point game! You can turn around a score where you are down and take the lead! It adds excitement to your game!

Assumptions: Approximately equal players, Score is NOT being considered
Format: I will use BPS-Basic to explain my thought process. You will gain a greater appreciation of this post if you have digested the first through 4th posts of this series. Simply look for posts titled Euchre Strategy... For those readers that don’t want to consider BPS, simply understand that 3.75 points indicates a 95% opportunity of taking 3 tricks. (Count probable tricks with any non-BPS approach you desire). If you have a 95% opportunity to take 3 tricks, you should consider ordering a Loner, IMO.
Goal: to improve Beginner & Casual Players to a level of Casual Plus. You are reading this information to enjoy Euchre more thoroughly by winning more often, aren’t you?
Playing for 4 points is so important to playing winning Euchre and the sheer excitement for you and the psychological advantages, against your opponents, that I am interrupting this series of Round and Seat Ordering/ Bidding half way through the Round and Seat posts!

Of course, playing for 4 points involves some additional analysis. Each concept is still basic Euchre strategy. You are using these basic concepts if you ever consider a Loner. Why not approach ordering a Loner in a more organized approach? BPS simply refines the process by crudely, but surprisingly accurately, accounting for more nuances, in the particular hand!

I will only cover the 2 most powerful Round and Seat combinations, R1S4 and R2S1, for this first post on ordering a Loner. (The concepts are the same for other round and seat combinations. They just occur less frequently).

Let’s start with R1S4 Dealer. You have the advantage of the Up Card, discarding an undesirable card, creating a void or 2 or even 3 voids. You also play last in R1. These are huge advantages to R1S4. That gives you the opportunity for more Loners!

Up (Card_K-C)
S4 (Card_J-C) (Card_A-C) (Card_A-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-S)
1.00 value of R1S4
1.00 Jc
0.50 Ac
0.50 Kc
0.75 value of 3 trump holding 2 out of 3 RLA
0.50 Ad
0.75 value of 2 voids (2 suited)
5.00 points! A very powerful hand. You don’t really need this BPS post for this hand but bear with me. This hand explains the concepts. I will give you an edge hand after this one.
### You are playing without a partner. BPS values are based on playing with a partner. So we must de-rate this hand:
-.50 R1S4 Loner
4.50 net value of ordering a Loner R1S4. >3.75 points and a 95% certainty of taking 3 tricks. (You should NOT get euchred). So you must, IMO, consider ordering a Loner!

The next step is to count Stoppers and Parlays. Stoppers are single cards that can stop your Loner from taking 4 points. Parlays are 2 card combinations that can stop your Loner. Stoppers count as 1.00 and Parlays count as 0.25 (1/4th the probability of stopping your Loner.

There are no single card Stoppers against this hand! It can be stopped with Lx, Kd x, Qd x, Jd x, and a diamond void. That totals 5 Parlays that can stop your Loner. 5 x 0.25 = 1.25 stopper-equivalents. Staying very simple, you should order a Loner if there are 2.50 stopper-equivalents or less. 2.75 is my edge for ordering a Loner.

So the BPS analysis supports ordering a Loner, with this obvious, IMO, Loner hand.

Let’s look at a hand that is closer to the edge:

Up (Card_K-C)
S4 (Card_J-S) (Card_9-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_9-S) (Card_9-D)
1.00 value of R1S4
0.75 Js
0.50 Kc
0.25 9c
0.50 value of 3 trump holding 1 out of 3 RLA
0.25 As (0.50 Next Ace -.25 9s)
0.25 3 Trump & Ace
0.75 value of 2 voids (2 suited)
4.25 points! You have a 95%+ opportunity to take 3 tricks, with partner
-.50 de-rate the value of the hand because you are playing alone
3.75 meeting the minimum 3.75 to consider ordering a Loner

The Jc is a Stopper, but don’t stop analyzing. Parlays include: Ks x, Qs x, and a spade void with a trump. That is 3 parlays. Add 1.00 for a single Stopper and 0.75 for 3 Parlays for 1.75 stopper-equivalents. That is well below 2.75 maximum stopper-equivalents to order a Loner. (If you counted 3.00 or more, you should simply order and play for 2 points),

I confidently order a Loner with this hand, do you?

TMI, with further analysis, I calculate a 31% opportunity to take 4 points. That gives me an excellent EV by ordering a Loner with this hand!

Now let’s look at R2S1 Next Loners;

Down (Card_A-C)
S1 (Card_J-C) (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_A-D) (Card_K-H)
0.75 R2S1
0.50 R2S1 Next order
0.75 Jc
0.50 Ks
0.50 Qs
0.50 3 Trump 1 RLA
0.75 Ad
0.25 2 Trump +A
0.25 1 void
4.75 BPS, >3.75 worthy to consider a Loner
0.00 adjustment to playing Alone, you control the play, taking your partner along adds no meaningful power
4.75 adjusted for a Loner BPS. >3.75 minimum BPS, based on a 95% probability of taking 3 tricks (not getting euchred)
Let’s add another level of analysis. Count 1 card Stoppers at 1.00 and 2 card Parlays at 0.25.
1.00 for a Js Stopper (yes, the Js is probably in Partner’s hand or the kitty), we are ignoring this advanced discussion, for this post.
1.00 for Ah
0.25 for a single trump Parlay, T9
0.25 for a Void and a trump
2.50 Stopper-Equivalents. <=2.75 maximum, at 3.00 or more you order and play for 2 points instead of 4 points, IMO.
So I confidently order a Loner. Do you? Most people don’t! They think that they must have the Right to order a Loner!
OE lessons stress, “Order Loners More Often.” Just do it! You will win more often! Winning is more enjoyable than losing.

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